As a recent TrueHoop article noted, the MVP almost always goes to a player on one of the top 4 teams record wise, and the player is usually first or second in a couple of statistical categories. The MVP is almost always a fairly prolific scorer, too.
Given those criteria, there's pretty much only one choice that makes sense....
LeBron.
Rose doesn't lead the league in any statistical category, and his team is most likely not going to finish with a top 4 record. The Bulls are probably the 6th best team in the NBA. Amare has no chance of winning because his Knicks will finish with fewer than 50 wins. Dirk has a better chance, but I still think it's unlikely given the Mavs' inconsistency.
Honestly, LeBron deserves it. The second most deserving player would be Wade, but because of LeBron that obviously isn't happening. I would say Ginobili, since he really is the MVP for the best team in the league, but his numbers just aren't gaudy enough.