Statistically Speaking: '10 Miami Heat are a top team in the NBA

[LB3533]

I am probably going to get flamed by this post, but here goes anyways....

The 2010-2011 Miami Heat are statistically one of the top teams in the NBA.

Through 24 games this season (about 30%) the Heat rank:

• #1 in team PPGA at 91.6 points per game allowed
• #2 in Opponent FG% allowed at 43.0%
• #2 in team point differential at a positive 9.2 points per game
• #2 in FG% differential at a positive 4.5%
  

Per game, only 2 teams get to the FT line more than the Heat.

The Heat also out rebound their opponents and turn the ball over less than their opponents.

The Heat currently have the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference.

The Heat were basically a .500 team a couple weeks ago, but now only 5 teams in the NBA have better records than the Heat.

With the exception of Memphis (whom the Heat lost at the buzzer)and maybe Indiana, all of the other Heat losses have come against teams that they probably "should" have lost to: Boston, New Orleans (during their hot start), Orlando, and Utah (whom the Heat had a very large lead).

Currently the Heat are on a 7 game win streak. They have won 3 straight games on the road with a very impressive win in Utah, their first legit win against a very good team.

Also, right now, not only are the Heat wining games, their 2 best players, D-Wade and Lebron James are playing fantastic together.

In last 5 games:

Wade is averaging around 27PPG, 9RPG, 6APG all on 58% shooting.

Lebron is averaging around 27PPG, 6RPG, 7APG all on 54% shooting

I think the Heat are going to be a team to be reckoned with later in the season and, no doubt, the playoffs.

I am very impressed with the coaching job that Erik Spolestra is doing down there in South Beach. Coach Spo is basically mimicking what Doc is doing this season, but Coach Spo is doing this in his first year with his "Big 3".

[angryguy77]

Only stat that matters-0-2 against Boston

[crownsy]

I am probably going to get flamed by this post, but here goes anyways....

The 2010-2011 Miami Heat are statistically one of the top teams in the NBA.

Through 24 games this season (about 30%) the Heat rank:

• #1 in team PPGA at 91.6 points per game allowed
• #2 in Opponent FG% allowed at 43.0%
• #2 in team point differential at a positive 9.2 points per game
• #2 in FG% differential at a positive 4.5%
  

Per game, only 2 teams get to the FT line more than the Heat.

The Heat also out rebound their opponents and turn the ball over less than their opponents.

The Heat currently have the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference.

The Heat were basically a .500 team a couple weeks ago, but now only 5 teams in the NBA have better records than the Heat.

With the exception of Memphis (whom the Heat lost at the buzzer)and maybe Indiana, all of the other Heat losses have come against teams that they probably "should" have lost to: Boston, New Orleans (during their hot start), Orlando, and Utah (whom the Heat had a very large lead).

Currently the Heat are on a 7 game win streak. They have won 3 straight games on the road with a very impressive win in Utah, their first legit win against a very good team.

Also, right now, not only are the Heat wining games, their 2 best players, D-Wade and Lebron James are playing fantastic together.

In last 5 games:

Wade is averaging around 27PPG, 9RPG, 6APG all on 58% shooting.

Lebron is averaging around 27PPG, 6RPG, 7APG all on 54% shooting

I think the Heat are going to be a team to be reckoned with later in the season and, no doubt, the playoffs.

I am very impressed with the coaching job that Erik Spolestra is doing down there in South Beach. Coach Spo is basically mimicking what Doc is doing this season, but Coach Spo is doing this in his first year with his "Big 3".

You dont suppose this record swing has anything to do with playing 5 teams well under .500 do you?

The only 2 teams they've played worth mentioning in the 7 games they've reeled off are Utah (solid win, no doubt) and arguably Atl (even though the hawks haven't exactly been playing great)

the other powerhouses they've beat up on are:

Detroit
Golden state (without curry, even worse than normal)
Washington (without wall, so even worse than normal)
Cleveland
and the bucks

I don't think any rationel person has every argued the heat suck or something, I fully expect them to be a top ten team in the NBA. I just think they are fatally flawed in having two superstars who dont play well in the half court and need the ball to create, and have no front court.

I think their record against good teams reflects that. The've split with orlando (and the second game wasent close, no coincidence the magic abused them with DH)  gotten swept by us, and been dominated by the mavericks, and split with utah.

So i guess what i'm saying is your post doesn't surprise me, and i doubt it surprises many rational fans. The heat are indeed a very good team, how could they fail to be with thier talent?

But they have serious flaws that i don't see being addressed until the off season.

[Fafnir]

Only stat that matters-0-2 against Boston

That's not true at all.  The Cavs were 2-0 versus the Spurs in 2006-2007.

Their head to head match ups with the Celtics this year makes me confident if they meet in the playoffs. That doesn't mean they're not a top team in the NBA.

[Fafnir]

Wayne Winston is a big plus minus guy (he was Cuban's stats guru for a while). He runs a regressions for team quality for both the NBA/NFL based on point difference, strength of schedule, and home court advantage.

Here is a link to his latest NBA rankings. The list shows offensive and defensive ratings.

http://waynewinston.com/wordpress/?p=980

[Fafnir]

I am probably going to get flamed by this post, but here goes anyways....

The 2010-2011 Miami Heat are statistically one of the top teams in the NBA.

Through 24 games this season (about 30%) the Heat rank:

• #1 in team PPGA at 91.6 points per game allowed
• #2 in Opponent FG% allowed at 43.0%
• #2 in team point differential at a positive 9.2 points per game
• #2 in FG% differential at a positive 4.5%
  

Per game, only 2 teams get to the FT line more than the Heat.

The Heat also out rebound their opponents and turn the ball over less than their opponents.

The Heat currently have the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference.

The Heat were basically a .500 team a couple weeks ago, but now only 5 teams in the NBA have better records than the Heat.

With the exception of Memphis (whom the Heat lost at the buzzer)and maybe Indiana, all of the other Heat losses have come against teams that they probably "should" have lost to: Boston, New Orleans (during their hot start), Orlando, and Utah (whom the Heat had a very large lead).

Currently the Heat are on a 7 game win streak. They have won 3 straight games on the road with a very impressive win in Utah, their first legit win against a very good team.

Also, right now, not only are the Heat wining games, their 2 best players, D-Wade and Lebron James are playing fantastic together.

In last 5 games:

Wade is averaging around 27PPG, 9RPG, 6APG all on 58% shooting.

Lebron is averaging around 27PPG, 6RPG, 7APG all on 54% shooting

I think the Heat are going to be a team to be reckoned with later in the season and, no doubt, the playoffs.

I am very impressed with the coaching job that Erik Spolestra is doing down there in South Beach. Coach Spo is basically mimicking what Doc is doing this season, but Coach Spo is doing this in his first year with his "Big 3".

You dont suppose this record swing has anything to do with playing 5 teams well under .500 do you?

The Knicks and Celtics have had pretty similar easy schedules as of late, as did the Spurs to start the season. It'll all balance out in the end.

The Lakers are going to have some serious issues if Bynum doesn't get back very soon, they have a backloaded schedule that is going to get pretty tough quickly.

[barefacedmonk]

Thank god games are not decided by a stat sheet or excel files

On a serious note, all these stats won't mean much if they can't beat us and/or Orlando. The Magic are in a slump at the moment...but I would still pick them to beat Miami in a seven game series.

[greenpride32]

Let's see, MIA has a very poor record against winning teams and domniates the bad teams.  Which teams will they be facing come playoff time?

[LB3533]

Thank god games are not decided by a stat sheet or excel files

On a serious note, all these stats won't mean much if they can't beat us and/or Orlando. The Magic are in a slump at the moment...but I would still pick them to beat Miami in a seven game series.

I would pick the Magic to win in a 7 game series too, against the Heat.

Think about who the Heat will throw out there against DHoward: Big Old Z, Damp Man and Juwon Howard?

Yikes.

But if Haslem can get back healthy and be effective rebounder and Miller gets back healthy and can make  the open shot....I will go with the team with 2 superstars versus 1.

[LB3533]

Let's see, MIA has a very poor record against winning teams and domniates the bad teams.  Which teams will they be facing come playoff time?

Ultimately, over the course of the regular season....the good teams improve over the course of the season.

By the time the regular season is over and the playoffs roll around....all the good teams will be clicking and that may very well include the Miami Heat.

[mgent]

Losing to good teams and beating on bad teams does not a top team make.

[misha]

#1, #2 and #3 in d0ucheness.

[BballTim]

  I just have a hard time getting worried about a team that's 3-7 against winning teams. And how is Spoelstra mimicking what Doc's doing?

[Fan from VT]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8159

[soap07]

I was just about to post that, Fan from VT - thanks for beating me to it. Point differential is far more indicative of how the Heat will perform down the road. I should note - both Bosh/Z have above average PER numbers. All this talk about the bad Heat front court is very much exaggerated.