Statistically Speaking: '10 Miami Heat are a top team in the NBA

[indeedproceed]

This is the part that is annoying. People (the media, not saying fans here) I feel like just want soooo bad to right about Miami. They all said this summer they were going to be amazing, and than they all overreacted when they were down. Now that they're winning, they're pretending they were right all along.

Annoying.

Agreed - although, the same was probably during the C's 2008 run. Remember how the media/NBA fans reacted after the first loss to the Pistons? The one where TA bit on the Billups' upfake?

Yes. Even I TNT telecasters (think Reggie Miller?) said "Billups always abused Tony Allen" recently. One upfake...ridiculous.

[LB3533]

  I just have a hard time getting worried about a team that's 3-7 against winning teams. And how is Spoelstra mimicking what Doc's doing?

To me, I am seeing Spo manage some huge egos and holding the ship together with a team ravaged with injuries and lacking in talent down the roster.

I mean even with Miller and Haslem healthy, the Heat were not constructed to win a title this season. Wit both injured and missing significant time, I don't see another coach out there in the EC doing a better job than Spo and Doc. Sorry Thibs.

[guava_wrench]

Really hard at the moment to argue that Heat are not a top team. Impossible to argue at the moment that they are an all-time great team.

The problem I see is that many people want the Heat to be a laughingstock, and they definitely are not at the moment. And as most of us have said all along, they seem to be improving with time.

[crownsy]

  I just have a hard time getting worried about a team that's 3-7 against winning teams. And how is Spoelstra mimicking what Doc's doing?

To me, I am seeing Spo manage some huge egos and holding the ship together with a team ravaged with injuries and lacking in talent down the roster.

I mean even with Miller and Haslem healthy, the Heat were not constructed to win a title this season. Wit both injured and missing significant time, I don't see another coach out there in the EC doing a better job than Spo and Doc. Sorry Thibs.

How is he holding them together?

as recently as a week and a half ago they held a player only meeting, Lebron's camp reportedly leaked a story to espn that the players were unhappy with his coaching style and their lack of input, and D-wade refused to endorse him as "his guy" even though he did last year and said he had to be more receptive to the players concerns

just because they suit up to play and beat teams they should doesn't mean he's managing ego's.

Look there too talented not to be in the top team discussion, but im not really seeing anything out of them i didn't expect. There a very good team, but not yet elite.

They have two superstars and a very good player, but lack depth in the front court and off the bench do to salary restraints.

I expect the MLE and guys desire to play there to make them better each year, but this years version is too flawed to win it all IMO

[Fan from VT]

Really hard at the moment to argue that Heat are not a top team. Impossible to argue at the moment that they are an all-time great team.

The problem I see is that many people want the Heat to be a laughingstock, and they definitely are not at the moment. And as most of us have said all along, they seem to be improving with time.

I agree. It's the extremist language we use now. The Heat must either Suck or be Dominant.
Why can't they be about the 3rd-5th best team in the league? Very good with noticeable flaws?

[crownsy]

Really hard at the moment to argue that Heat are not a top team. Impossible to argue at the moment that they are an all-time great team.

The problem I see is that many people want the Heat to be a laughingstock, and they definitely are not at the moment. And as most of us have said all along, they seem to be improving with time.

I agree. It's the extremist language we use now. The Heat must either Suck or be Dominant.
Why can't they be about the 3rd-5th best team in the league? Very good with noticeable flaws?

Yea, TP that's where i have them.

I expect them to improve markedly next year and beyond when they can use the MLE and guys desire to play there to add a true PG and some toughness on the glass.

[Drucci]

Statistically speaking the '09' and '10 Cleveland Cavaliers were a top team in the NBA... look how the performed in the playoffs, it doesn't mean anything.

[Fafnir]

I was just about to post that, Fan from VT - thanks for beating me to it. Point differential is far more indicative of how the Heat will perform down the road. I should note - both Bosh/Z have above average PER numbers. All this talk about the bad Heat front court is very much exaggerated.

PER doesn't account for defense, that's where the problem with Miami's bigs is. Other than Bosh they are all very slow.

[Fan from VT]

Statistically speaking the '09' and '10 Cleveland Cavaliers were a top team in the NBA... look how the performed in the playoffs, it doesn't mean anything.

Odd argument...there are several "top teams" in any given year, but distinctly 1 champion. "top teams" absolutely have to lose every year, by definition.

[Larry for 3]

You want stats  :  Here's a stat for ya---- In 2 games vs the Boston Celtics this season the Miami Heat have led for 2 minutes and 45 seconds, the last lead being 4 to 2 which was tied by Bos at the 8 : 07 mark of the 1st quarter on opening night.  That's the only stat that matters to me. You can take your Per and put it where the sun dont shine.  Miami can beat up on bad teams all year long, come playoff time we all know what's going to happen-- a possible (likely) sweep.      END RANT

[BballTim]

http://www.basketball-reference.com/blog/?p=8159

  Is this what you were looking at?

  "In the NBA, dominating good teams is clearly the best indicator of postseason success."

I was focusing more on this part - "But the second-most predictive attribute of "final four" success was having more stomps -- that is, destroying the league's weaker teams. And having more stomps was actually a better indicator of success than having more guts (close wins against good teams), just like Schatz found in football."

This is more applicable because the Celtics haven't dominated good teams so the first predictor doesn't much apply.

  How many of the teams with more stomps had a below .500 record vs winning teams? Probably few to none. The Heat could be the same statistical anomaly that the Celts were last year.

[Birdbrain]

I am probably going to get flamed by this post, but here goes anyways....

The 2010-2011 Miami Heat are statistically one of the top teams in the NBA.

Through 24 games this season (about 30%) the Heat rank:

• #1 in team PPGA at 91.6 points per game allowed
• #2 in Opponent FG% allowed at 43.0%
• #2 in team point differential at a positive 9.2 points per game
• #2 in FG% differential at a positive 4.5%
  

Per game, only 2 teams get to the FT line more than the Heat.

The Heat also out rebound their opponents and turn the ball over less than their opponents.

The Heat currently have the 2nd best record in the Eastern Conference.

The Heat were basically a .500 team a couple weeks ago, but now only 5 teams in the NBA have better records than the Heat.

With the exception of Memphis (whom the Heat lost at the buzzer)and maybe Indiana, all of the other Heat losses have come against teams that they probably "should" have lost to: Boston, New Orleans (during their hot start), Orlando, and Utah (whom the Heat had a very large lead).

Currently the Heat are on a 7 game win streak. They have won 3 straight games on the road with a very impressive win in Utah, their first legit win against a very good team.

Also, right now, not only are the Heat wining games, their 2 best players, D-Wade and Lebron James are playing fantastic together.

In last 5 games:

Wade is averaging around 27PPG, 9RPG, 6APG all on 58% shooting.

Lebron is averaging around 27PPG, 6RPG, 7APG all on 54% shooting

I think the Heat are going to be a team to be reckoned with later in the season and, no doubt, the playoffs.

I am very impressed with the coaching job that Erik Spolestra is doing down there in South Beach. Coach Spo is basically mimicking what Doc is doing this season, but Coach Spo is doing this in his first year with his "Big 3".

Yes except of course the only statistic that counts.  I expect to meet them in the ECF and if Boston is healthy I don't consider the teams very close.   2 Guys on Miami would start on Boston and the benches aren't even close, IMHO.

Boston has nice history against LJ and Wade to use to their advantage.  They are fun to watch though against average teams.  Lots of dunking and added bonus of boost in the pt diff dept. for the Hollinger's of the world.

[Drucci]

Statistically speaking the '09' and '10 Cleveland Cavaliers were a top team in the NBA... look how the performed in the playoffs, it doesn't mean anything.

Odd argument...there are several "top teams" in any given year, but distinctly 1 champion. "top teams" absolutely have to lose every year, by definition.

True, but the thing is the Cavs were ranked in the top 3 of almost every statistical category during the last two years and yet it remained obvious to the good observers that, although they dominated the regular season, they weren't going anywhere in the playoffs because of their known weaknesses (lack of clutch players around LeBron, not enough scorers/defenders, etc).

The Heat is no different. Even if they finish with the 1st seed and LeBron/Wade develop good habits together, they will still badly lack an inside presence in the playoffs, a PG, some postseason experience, etc.

So pointing out the Heat's "greatness" statistically speaking is kind of a moot point in my opinion.

[soap07]

I was just about to post that, Fan from VT - thanks for beating me to it. Point differential is far more indicative of how the Heat will perform down the road. I should note - both Bosh/Z have above average PER numbers. All this talk about the bad Heat front court is very much exaggerated.

PER doesn't account for defense, that's where the problem with Miami's bigs is. Other than Bosh they are all very slow.

I posted in another thread...

Some interesting notes: Z's opponent's PER: 14.5, Bosh's - about 13 between the C/PF position, Joel Anthony - 13.3, Dampier's - 11.2...

Basically, the Heat's inside defense has actually been pretty good...above average at the very least.

[Celtics4ever]

LeBum James = pyrite of the NBA.   Great stats worth nothing.

Them vs. Us
13th in PPG we are 11th - Not too elite for them, you'd expect better
20th is APG we are 1st  - this one kills them folks
4th in FG% we are 1st - surprised me that they were this high
5th in 3p% we are 6th - Live by three die by three I guess
13th in FT% we are 23rd - us with Rondo and them with max FTAs from refs
5th Tied with us = Push, but as assists show they are no team
1st in Points allowed we are 4th - but we beat but good and bad teams
8th in Opponents APG we are 3rd -  Will help us come playoffs
2nd in Opponents FG% we are 6th - Again was surprised
2nd in Opponents FT% we are 22nd - Worthless stat depends on who you play
10th in team Rebounding we are 27th - Team rebounds, yawn
2nd in Opponents 3p% we are 13th - Not surprising with their young legs
13th in BPG we are 24th - Helps to have athletic wings
22nd in SPG and we are 12th - Helps having Rondo
30th in TO per game and we are 16th - and them with no PG!

On paper they look very good but here is a stat that I'd like to point out. We've BEAT THEM TWICE!  Stats are great but we still got to play the games.   They got no depth, no bigs and no shot to beat us.  Their two best players are in the top 7th in TOs.   

Their winning percentage is .667  our is .819.

Stat don't reflect our experience or LeBron's tendency to vanish, choke or quit in the playoffs.  I think a lot of their stats is reflective of the easy schedule they have had and not their team ability.  1-7 against winning teams folks we are 6-2 against good teams as of Dec 6th with winning teams being over .500%.  They have played bums that have inflated their team stats.