C's vs. Heat Big Men Dilemma

[wazutruth20]

Doc said earlier that both Shaq and Jermaine O'Neal may not suit up for tomorrow's showdown vs. Miami. Most likely, if Shaq's knee isn't feeling any better after today's practice, Semih will probably get the starting spot.

Does this call for a huge concern? Boston's size is the one thing that hurts the Heat, but without it, is Boston in trouble?

[Fafnir]

If our rotation is just KG/Semih/BBD we're going to be very vulnerable. The Heat will be able to attack our interior defense much more easily, potentially out rebound us, and wear us down due to a shortened rotation.

Still our defense should do a good job of stopping them just like opening night. Can we score enough is the question.

[SalmonAndMashedPotatoes]

Shaq came on the current road trip with one thing in mind--suiting up in Miami.  He practiced today, and assuming no further re-injury he'll go tomorrow.  You can count on that. 

We have advantages at the 1 and 5 against the Heat and will win or lose depending on how much we can exploit those advantages.  In the end, it'll be a matter of how much Shaq can give us (probably no more than 15-20 minutes), how aggressive KG is in looking for his shot (he absolutely cannot pass up shots), and how effective Glen can be in crunch time. 

If I'm Doc, I'm pulling JO aside and telling him to get healthy.  With a swollen knee, something is obviously wrong and since JO ain't the type to play well with the pain the best move for all parties is to rest him until he's pain-free. 

Based on Doc's history and treatment of rookies, I doubt Semih gets much time on Thursday unless there's major foul trouble or both O'Neal's are unavailable.  If I had to guess right now, both O'Neal's will dress, Shaq will start, and JO will limp around ineffectively for maybe 10 minutes, with Baby filling in the rest of the time.  Doc will probably limit his rotation (meaning no Wafer) and probably be forced to go small at some point due to a lack of bigs.

[the_Bird]

Based on Doc's history and treatment of rookies, I doubt Semih gets much time on Thursday unless there's major foul trouble or both O'Neal's are unavailable.

Semih's gotten on the court in each of the past five games, in four of those playing between 10 and 16 minutes.  It's not like there's been a plethora of garbage time in those games either.  If The Brothers O'Neil are both hurt, it'll be on BBD to step up, but I don't see why Semih would get any few minutes that he's been seeing. 

I'd expect him to play ~10 MPG even if Shaq is available - Shaq ain't going for much more than 20, maybe 25 minutes at the most, and you need Baby to cover behind KG as well. 

Semih's not playing much like a rook.  Doc doesn't play rookies who play like rookies.  He'll be in the rotation as long as he's playing at his current level, and as long as only one of The Brothers is healthy.

[Who]

If this happens, there will be a lot of pressure on BBD to have a big game.

If he struggles in any way, this will be a very difficult game to win. If he plays as well as he has been, then the Celtics still have a fair shot at winning the contest.

Need a strong defensive showing from him and baskets around the rim offensively. Hopefully, BBD will grab a few more rebounds tonight than he has been so far this season too (35 in 243 minutes, one every 7 minutes, absolutely atrocious).

[Fafnir]

If this happens, there will be a lot of pressure on BBD to have a big game.

If he struggles in any way, this will be a very difficult game to win. If he plays as well as he has been, then the Celtics still have a fair shot at winning the contest.

Need a strong defensive showing from him and baskets around the rim offensively. Hopefully, BBD will grab a few more rebounds tonight than he has been so far this season too (35 in 243 minutes, one every 7 minutes, absolutely atrocious).

We're lucky KG and PP have picked up their rebounding so far this year.

[j804]

in that case we may as well just coast it

we arent winning with Semih starting

*shrugs*

[the_Bird]

Semih wouldn't start, BBD would.  We'd lose out on one of our main advantages against Miami, but wouldn't really be at much of a disadvantage, really.  BBD's not going to be overmatched going up against Joel Anthony, Haslem, or Bosh.  BBD can't really bother Big Z's shots, so you'd probably see Semih in there while Z was on the court. 

No O'Neils does not mean the C's couldn't win.  It does mean (probably) that we'd need Rondo to dominate at the PG spot, since that's the one other area we have a clear, clear advantage.  We'd also need everyone chipping in on the glass.

[2short]

If there are no ONeils we have starting center Semih 'til he fouls out.  Backup KG & Davis.  Bosh is not a low post defender.  KG's defense is so great that we can get by with davis & erden.  Main thing will be rebounding, wade & lebron are very good rebounders for their posistions.  We need PP to concentrate on defense and rebounding.  If Wade is guarding ray than run him into the ground, hopefully by the end of the game it'll show.
Semih starters minutes projected numbers  
10 pts, 2 blocks, 10 rebounds, 5 turnovers, 4 assists, 6 fouls

[guava_wrench]

If this happens, there will be a lot of pressure on BBD to have a big game.

If he struggles in any way, this will be a very difficult game to win. If he plays as well as he has been, then the Celtics still have a fair shot at winning the contest.

Need a strong defensive showing from him and baskets around the rim offensively. Hopefully, BBD will grab a few more rebounds tonight than he has been so far this season too (35 in 243 minutes, one every 7 minutes, absolutely atrocious).

BBD's return to a perimeter game means no more offensive boards. Last season he played in the paint.

I'm not too worried about the defensive boards because we haven't had a problem there. so long as someone gets the defensive board, I don't care who it is.

[indeedproceed]

Semih starters minutes projected numbers 
10 pts, 2 blocks, 10 rebounds, 5 turnovers, 4 assists, 6 fouls

If you took Semih's last 5 games, and broke them down to a per-minute production, it takes Semih 29 minutes to foul out.

So, if he played all 29 of those minutes, by per minute numbers he's looking at 9.5 pts, 6.5 boards, 1.5 asts, 1.5 TO's, 1 block, .5 steals, 55% shooting.

Work is slow today, whaddya want??

[Fafnir]

If this happens, there will be a lot of pressure on BBD to have a big game.

If he struggles in any way, this will be a very difficult game to win. If he plays as well as he has been, then the Celtics still have a fair shot at winning the contest.

Need a strong defensive showing from him and baskets around the rim offensively. Hopefully, BBD will grab a few more rebounds tonight than he has been so far this season too (35 in 243 minutes, one every 7 minutes, absolutely atrocious).

BBD's return to a perimeter game means no more offensive boards. Last season he played in the paint.

I'm not too worried about the defensive boards because we haven't had a problem there. so long as someone gets the defensive board, I don't care who it is.

I care because we could be building up a healthy differential if our de-facto starting C rebounded better than a SF.

[satch]

At this point Baby is best player of the three. Start Baby and find a backup for him. Both O'Neals are old and out of shape. "The Big Turkey" has some promise but he needs to be surrounding with Pierce and Rondo to be effective. The O'Neals have big hats, big boots, but no cows. (I wish Shaq's desire was big as his ego.) I do believe on certain nights Doc could play the O'Neals in certain situations ie. matchups. But Doc is very aware of team politics so none of this will happen. 

[LooseCannon]

Semih wouldn't start, BBD would.

Doc has said that he prefers Glen Davis coming off the bench because he offers flexibility, so if both Shaq and J-Ow are out, Semih just may get the start.  Doc will play rookies if he has to.  He played Big Baby at back-up center as a rookie because the Pollard injury forced him to, though he still went with a small lineup that had Posey at the 4 at times.  All the other rookies in the past few years who didn't play didn't deserve to play.

I expect we're going to see two small lineups at the end again, with Bosh and KG as the centers.  It will be interesting to see what lineup Rivers will go with if Big Baby is in foul trouble.

[the_Bird]

 I thought I'd heard Doc say, think for a previous game, that if JO and Shaq were out then BBD would get the start.  I'm almost certain of that.  He prefers playing BBD off the bench, but that doesn't mean he won't give BBD the start (he's started before when guys have been hurt).

Let's also remember BBD's rather...  let's say "emotional" nature.  He might not take too well to coming off the bench in that situation.  Some players, including BBD, might view that as being a little disrespectful.  Doc's not going to let that be an issue.  BBD's been here, he's the primary backup big man, if the O'Neils can't go BBD will be in there at the start and Semih will come in off the bench.  

Semih will get minutes, though.  The whole "Doc hates to play rookies" thing is overblown (name me a coach that *likes* putting young guys out there), and Semih isn't playing like a typical wide-eyed rook.  KG and BBD will probably play ~35 minutes each (assuming no foul trouble), leaving 25-26 minutes for Semih.  Think he's shown that he can handle that, especially against Miami's average-at-best frontcourt (I'd be a lot more worried going up against Orlando).