Mike Conley's Extension

[mgent]

Wow.  He's not even a full MLE player IMHO.

They overpaid for Rudy Gay too.

And their arena is empty: it's actually uncomfortable watching the games played there.

Even if you consider 13mil a fair price for Rudy Gay (the number 1 player on your team), you don't go giving Mike Conley (the 5/6th best player on your team) 9mil.

[Potapenko Boxout]

if $9 mil isnt the price for a young solid point guard, what is?

i'd say seven would be fair, so nine doesnt make much sense to me one way or the other. Conley has been prettay good, prettay, prettay pretty good

[Moranis]

It is actually 8 million per, and I think you guys are really under selling Conley.  He is still just 23 and has shown solid improvement every year in the league.  He has pretty good 3PT range (career 38.4%) and has a decent AST% at just under 25 for his career, up near 37 thus far this year.  PG's are historically slow starters, especially when you miss a bunch of games due to injury as a rookie. 

[Fafnir]

It is actually 8 million per, and I think you guys are really under selling Conley.  He is still just 23 and has shown solid improvement every year in the league.  He has pretty good 3PT range (career 38.4%) and has a decent AST% at just under 25 for his career, up near 37 thus far this year.  PG's are historically slow starters, especially when you miss a bunch of games due to injury as a rookie. 

1. They bid against themselves.

2. I'm not sold on Conley's improved play over the last 30 games. His first several years were very meh. Not everyone is Steve Nash and blossoms late, most players are good right away with the sort of minutes Conley got.

3. What the heck do they do with OJ Mayo?

[Donoghus]

It is actually 8 million per, and I think you guys are really under selling Conley.  He is still just 23 and has shown solid improvement every year in the league.  He has pretty good 3PT range (career 38.4%) and has a decent AST% at just under 25 for his career, up near 37 thus far this year.  PG's are historically slow starters, especially when you miss a bunch of games due to injury as a rookie. 

Wouldn't it have been a more prudent decision by the organization to hold off a bit before throwing out an extension offer.

It seems to be this whole contract is banking on a pretty significant uptick in Conley's talent that we haven't exactly seen yet.  I mean who else out there would've realistically offered that much money for Conley?  As Faf and others have said, they really did bid against themselves here. 

[Bankshot]

I really like Conley.  Don't know if he'll be worth the contract, but we'll find out soon enough.  I don't think he's that much overpaid.

[moiso]

I really like Conley.  Don't know if he'll be worth the contract, but we'll find out soon enough.  I don't think he's that much overpaid.

Remember last year when half of this blog argued that Iverson was much better than Conley?  Conley is decent right now but the contract is largely based on potential.  Hopefully for the Grizzlies' sake Conley and Gay will keep improving.  If not, they are kind of screwed.

[Fafnir]

I really like Conley.  Don't know if he'll be worth the contract, but we'll find out soon enough.  I don't think he's that much overpaid.

Remember last year when half of this blog argued that Iverson was much better than Conley?  Conley is decent right now but the contract is largely based on potential.  Hopefully for the Grizzlies' sake Conley and Gay will keep improving.  If not, they are kind of screwed.

Just because a lot of people say something doesn't mean you should take them seriously....

[Who]

Conley has proven enough to be worth MLE type money if playing a starter's role like he is in Memphis. That is about $33 million. $45 million looks suspect in comparison but this new $40 million figure is a little easier on the eye.

Mike Conley only has to show a solid amount of improvement to be worth that $40 million deal + even if he doesn't, the negative portion of that contract isn't large enough to do too much damage to the Grizzlies.

I still would have waited until next summer until Conley proved himself (his development has been disappointing so far) ... but the contract is not so bad.

[Vermont Green]

Nice article here:

http://www.memphisflyer.com/BeyondtheArc/archives/2010/11/04/the-conley-contract

The actual numbers, according to the article, are
 
$6.5M/$7.2M/$7.9M/$8.8M/$9.7M per year.

So in 2015, he is making $9.7M.  I think that will probably turn out to be reasonable, he is really young and should improve.

[Gemini]

Conley has been prettay good, prettay, prettay pretty good

haha. love that show!

[jr_3421]

Nice article here:

http://www.memphisflyer.com/BeyondtheArc/archives/2010/11/04/the-conley-contract

The actual numbers, according to the article, are
 
$6.5M/$7.2M/$7.9M/$8.8M/$9.7M per year.

So in 2015, he is making $9.7M.  I think that will probably turn out to be reasonable, he is really young and should improve.

For me it's not even the money being paid out. These people see Mike Conley everyday. If they think he's their future then the should lock him up. My problem is that people around the league don't value him that much so it's unnecessary to pay out that much money to keep him. Similar to Rudy Gay, they didn't even attempt to find out his market value. Both were restricted free agents and so Memphis had the option of matching any offer sheet. To expect someone to sign Conley to offer sheet as big as his contract now is absurd. How does Wallace have a job?

[Moranis]

It is actually 8 million per, and I think you guys are really under selling Conley.  He is still just 23 and has shown solid improvement every year in the league.  He has pretty good 3PT range (career 38.4%) and has a decent AST% at just under 25 for his career, up near 37 thus far this year.  PG's are historically slow starters, especially when you miss a bunch of games due to injury as a rookie. 

Wouldn't it have been a more prudent decision by the organization to hold off a bit before throwing out an extension offer.

It seems to be this whole contract is banking on a pretty significant uptick in Conley's talent that we haven't exactly seen yet.  I mean who else out there would've realistically offered that much money for Conley?  As Faf and others have said, they really did bid against themselves here. 

No, because it really isn't that much money in the NBA these days.  What happens if Conley continues his first week numbers for the whole season.  Then all of a sudden a guy you could get at 8 million per is going to cost you close to 10 million per (if not higher).  And he would get in the 10 million per range if he continues on his 16 ppg, 9 apg, 6 rpg, 3.5 spg, and 2.5 tpg with his very respectable shooting numbers.

It is a pretty safe gamble by the Grizzlies given his current numbers and the visible improvement over the latter part of last season and this season.

[Moranis]

It is actually 8 million per, and I think you guys are really under selling Conley.  He is still just 23 and has shown solid improvement every year in the league.  He has pretty good 3PT range (career 38.4%) and has a decent AST% at just under 25 for his career, up near 37 thus far this year.  PG's are historically slow starters, especially when you miss a bunch of games due to injury as a rookie. 

1. They bid against themselves.

2. I'm not sold on Conley's improved play over the last 30 games. His first several years were very meh. Not everyone is Steve Nash and blossoms late, most players are good right away with the sort of minutes Conley got.

3. What the heck do they do with OJ Mayo?

Have you looked at Gary Payton's first few years in the league?  How about John Stockton?

Don't get me wrong I don't believe for a second Conley will end up with a HOF career, but those two guys, as well as Nash, started off pretty slowly with a fair amount of minutes.  And sure some guys like Jason Kidd, Isiah Thomas, and Magic Johnson entered the league like gang busters, but most PG's take a few years to develop. 

[Fafnir]

And he would get in the 10 million per range if he continues on his 16 ppg, 9 apg, 6 rpg, 3.5 spg, and 2.5 tpg with his very respectable shooting numbers.

It is a pretty safe gamble by the Grizzlies given his current numbers and the visible improvement over the latter part of last season and this season.

Do you think its at all likely that he's going to keep putting up those numbers?

I don't.

Same with Rudy Gay, he's not going to shoot 50+% from three.