I predict 65 to 70 wins

[ScoobyDoo]

Seriously, here's why.

I was watching the  Toronto game last night. Have you ever seen a cat playing with a mouse before it finally sinks its teeth in? That's what this team reminds me of.

Shaq / Perkins / Erden
KG / O'Neal / Baby / Harangody
Pierce/ Daniels / Lasme
Ray / DWest / Wafer
Rondo / Nate / Bradley

Our entire second unit are players that have been starters on other teams and in some cases not just starters, but top 2 or 3 guys on those teams. Big baby, our third string PF/C, could arguably start on a lot of teams and in fact has on ours at times...

We're old.

However, here's why I think this year we will most likely win 65 to 70 games. Last year, when our starters were yawning, sitting back and playing with the mice left handed until the killing season came, we didn't really have the bench to carry them, so we lost alot of games.

This year? Not only do we have a much, much better bench, we've got some real killers on it. DWest, Nate, Big baby, Jermaine, Perkins, these guys are all tough, aggressive, hungry players.

So, lets' assume Shaq starts, which is what I'd do. That means as Shaq, KG, Pierce, Ray and Rondo are walking off the court...when back and healthy, the following will be walking ontp the court:

Perkins, Jermaine, Daniels, DWest and Nate.

That's sick.

I'll argue that if we stay relatively healthy with only bumps and bruises this year, and perk comes back at 85 to 90% by the last month or two of the season? We win 65-70 games.

And again, the main reason is that if the Vets are pacing, we've got alot of other guys, some vets included, who won't be pacing but constantly trying to earn some extended burn on the court.

The personalities faavor this as well; Nate and DWest, Perkins and Jermaine, they only play one way at one speed. Nose first and hard.

65-70 wins. WE have to many hard nosed tough players on the team for it not to happen.   

[xmuscularghandix]

Doc has also been forcing the point of “If game 7 was in Boston we’d be champions”

I think that could make them come out of fire.

[LilRip]

wow. bold prediction imo. I love our team but i think we're still more built for the playoffs than anything. We'll do better than last year, but I think i'm leaning towards us finishing with around 52-57 wins.



- LilRip

[GreenFaith1819]

I'd rather have 55-60 wins. I think this will put us in the Laker range of wins.

The key is to win more than LA - for homecourt advantage. I don't care if MIA wins 76 games, personally - they must beat us and/or ORL to get to the Finals.

LA will struggle at times this year. No way they win more than they did last year.

[Who]

I'm thinking around 58 wins.

Given the team's age, injuries over the past year and injury proneness of some the new recruits ... I doubt the team stays healthy enough throughout the season to win 65-70 games.

I think they can play at that 65-70 pace when they're healthy though.

[Roy H.]

I think we'll see something similar to last year.  The team will start out hot, and then will take its foot off the gas to conserve health and energy for the playoffs.  I'm predicting 56 wins and 3rd in the East.

[misha]

I think we'll see something similar to last year.  The team will start out hot, and then will take its foot off the gas to conserve health and energy for the playoffs.  I'm predicting 56 wins and 3rd in the East.

I agree. If we need to slow down at some point in order to get healthier and in better shape to the playoffs then we should definitely do it. Just like last season.

[pearljammer10]

Yeah I dont think we are going to go for 65 - 70 wins... I say in the 55 range is much more likely. With the veterans we have on this team they know when to turn it off and on. They will rest up during the second half of the season, take some time off, then pull it all together for the playoffs. However, if they did put everything they had into every game i could see them winning 70... Its just not going to happen though.

[ScoobyDoo]

Valid points re the 55 to 58 win predictions and I defiantely see the reasoning.

But I'm gonna stay with a higher target of 65-70. My main reason is Nate, DWest, Baby, O'Neal and Daniels. I just think these guys are going to bring it nightly off the bench.

With the exception of Jermaine, all those guys are young, pogo sticks with plenty of energy to burn. After watching Erden, I'll even throw him in as a spot minute guy who will be balls to the wall on the court when he gets his shot.

Maybe they'll settle some where between 58 and 70...I could be way over shooting. But unless somethign catastrophic happens, I'm bullish with this team.

 

[fairweatherfan]

I think even if we have the chemistry and the health to win 65-70, we have enough veterans to realize that that kind of pace is counterproductive to our playoff chances. 

Not that we'll be losing games on purpose or anything, but this team will be very deliberately pacing itself for at least the middle third of the season, and probably longer.

I'd predict 52-55 wins, depending on if we have a real threat to lose homecourt in the first round.  I like the optimism though!

[GreenEnvy]

I honestly don't know how many wins this team will win, but I doubt it is more than the 2008 team. That team was incredible. They went for the jugular EVERY game. Going in to the season, I knew we were in for something special from the get-go. Only question marks were Ray's ankles, Rondo/Perk, and chemistry. We won 66 games despite a 3 game losing streak when KG came back and losing 7 combined games to Washington/Cleveland/Orlando. They swept Texas (and the Lakers) and clobbered the division.

This team has legit injury concerns (as do all teams) to many of it's core players. Should everything go right, we surely can win 65-70 because on paper we are the best team. But if players start getting injuries here and there, we may fall in the 50's somewhere (presumably high 50's because of our depth).


I'd be SHOCKED if we only won around 50 (although if you told me this time last season that we would go 50-32, I would have laughed in your face), but I only care about our record in April-May-June.

[Greenbean]

Well I dont know about 65-70 but we wont be blowing as many big leads this year thats for sure. Way too deep for that.

[MBunge]

The wins question all depends on why you think the team was a .500 ballclub for the last 2/3rds of last season and inexplicably lost so many games at home.

If you think it was mostly age, there's no reason to expect them to win more than maybe 52 or 53 games this season.

If you think it was more chemistry (both Rondo becoming the best player on the team and 'Sheed's indifference spreading to other players), this team might be able to win over 60 games.

Mike

[ScoobyDoo]

If I'm Doc and I want the best possible record I can get for Home court advantage throughout the playoffs, I'm thinking I can pace my Vets who defiantely will need more rest ( KG, Pierce, Ray, Shaq and maybe Jermaine).

But I load up on Nate, DWest, Marquis, Baby, Erden, etc. and I think I can win alot of those games I lost last year, bring these young guys alot further along and be stronger as a team because of it come playoff time.

I'm upping it to 162 wins. In the regular season.  

[ScoobyDoo]

That's a good point MBunge. What do people attribute the losses to last year?

For me, I do think as many have correctly said, that the vets had to pace themselves and they had some nagging injuries.

I also think it was because KG, inparticular, had to pace himself. He even had to pace himself within his 25-30 minutes a night...

And when the Vets paced themselves last year, the bench could not consistently pick things up.

Rasheed wasn't brining it, we had nothing behind Pierce with Marquis out, we had no offesne behind Ray and House behind Rondo. Big baby was also out for an extended time...

This year?

Nate behind Rondo ( and he has a full training camp and pre-season to integrate)
We lost Tony's D, but get decent D and much better offense behind Ray with DWest
Daniels and Baby healthy to this point
Jermaine, Shaq...

This year, I think our bench, to answer your question MBunge, is the difference for me in us having a shot at 65-70 wins.