Doc: KG looked 'phenomenal and explosive' in first practice.

[BballTim]

KG is just about washed up

Thank god.. He's been in the shower forever. Dude needs to learn to save some for the fishes.

hah but seriously... he's just about washed up.  I'm not gonna compare KG to Vin Baker or anything... but this fanbase has a tendency to make excuses for washed up players and grasp at any positive sign as proof "he's back, baby!" ... Kinda like how we all were hoping Sheed would suddenly stop stinking like he did his final season in Detroit once motivation was there... or like we hoped Stephon Marbury would stop stinking like he had in NY now that he had a defined role... and how we all hope Jermaine and Shaq don't stink like they have for the past half decade.   

KG's just about done.  There's no miracle turnaround coming.  He's been on a steady decline for 3 years.

  Steady decline means progressively worse. Did you think his play got worse as the year went on last season? I'd disagree with your claim.

Exactly larry barf what the heck r u talking about?

Are you guys kidding me?  It's widely acknowledged by most sane people outside of Boston homers that KG is on a major decline.

06-07 =  22.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.2 steals
07-08 = 18.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.4 steals
08-09 = 15.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals
09-10 = 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, .8 blocks, 1 steal

  Of course, when asked whether you think he got worse as last year progressed, you come back with stats for his last 4 years. No sane person, inside Boston or not, would think that KG was playing better in November than he was in May or June. Calling people homers for recognizing the obvious makes you sound pretty ridiculous. Is he the player he was in 2007? Of course not. Is he washed up? Obviously not.

[LarBrd33]

KG is just about washed up

Thank god.. He's been in the shower forever. Dude needs to learn to save some for the fishes.

hah but seriously... he's just about washed up.  I'm not gonna compare KG to Vin Baker or anything... but this fanbase has a tendency to make excuses for washed up players and grasp at any positive sign as proof "he's back, baby!" ... Kinda like how we all were hoping Sheed would suddenly stop stinking like he did his final season in Detroit once motivation was there... or like we hoped Stephon Marbury would stop stinking like he had in NY now that he had a defined role... and how we all hope Jermaine and Shaq don't stink like they have for the past half decade.   

KG's just about done.  There's no miracle turnaround coming.  He's been on a steady decline for 3 years.

  Steady decline means progressively worse. Did you think his play got worse as the year went on last season? I'd disagree with your claim.

Exactly larry barf what the heck r u talking about?

Are you guys kidding me?  It's widely acknowledged by most sane people outside of Boston homers that KG is on a major decline.

06-07 =  22.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.2 steals
07-08 = 18.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.4 steals
08-09 = 15.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals
09-10 = 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, .8 blocks, 1 steal

  Of course, when asked whether you think he got worse as last year progressed, you come back with stats for his last 4 years. No sane person, inside Boston or not, would think that KG was playing better in November than he was in May or June. Calling people homers for recognizing the obvious makes you sound pretty ridiculous. Is he the player he was in 2007? Of course not. Is he washed up? Obviously not.

My response to that is this...   we had an 11 game winning streak in late November/Early December where KG had three games in a row where he had 20+ points.  That's something he has never done in Boston.  His stats during that stretch were fantastic.  People seem to forget we started the season 23-5 before fatigue set in for our old/almost washed up squad.

Against Orlando in the ECF he averaged 10 points and 8 rebounds on 39% shooting.  He averaged 15 points and 5 rebounds in the finals.   Where's this myth coming from that he "got better" as the season progressed?   

The guy is just about washed up, folks.   Come to grips with it.  I'm sure KG looks more explosive than he did towards the end of last season.  He's old.  He was worn down.  He's got fresh legs.  Over the course of this season his body will betray him again and he'll continue to slip into NBA heaven.  It's just the way this goes.

[kg is king]

KG is just about washed up

Thank god.. He's been in the shower forever. Dude needs to learn to save some for the fishes.

hah but seriously... he's just about washed up.  I'm not gonna compare KG to Vin Baker or anything... but this fanbase has a tendency to make excuses for washed up players and grasp at any positive sign as proof "he's back, baby!" ... Kinda like how we all were hoping Sheed would suddenly stop stinking like he did his final season in Detroit once motivation was there... or like we hoped Stephon Marbury would stop stinking like he had in NY now that he had a defined role... and how we all hope Jermaine and Shaq don't stink like they have for the past half decade.   

KG's just about done.  There's no miracle turnaround coming.  He's been on a steady decline for 3 years.

  Steady decline means progressively worse. Did you think his play got worse as the year went on last season? I'd disagree with your claim.

Exactly larry barf what the heck r u talking about?

Are you guys kidding me?  It's widely acknowledged by most sane people outside of Boston homers that KG is on a major decline.

06-07 =  22.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.2 steals
07-08 = 18.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.4 steals
08-09 = 15.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals
09-10 = 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, .8 blocks, 1 steal

How can you call that anything other than a steady decline?  It's a pretty blatant trend.  Now, I understand he has been effective.  No doubt.  I understand he's a solid defender and our best big man when compared to the rest of the guys on this squad.  I understand his minutes have dipped a little each year.  But come on guys... our boy is just about washed up.   It's a familiar trend.  Look at the steady decline of Hakeem, David Robinson or Ewing in the last 6 years of their careers.  Do you think that the Sonics were thinking in 2000 after signing Patrick Ewing that he was toast?  Of course not.  He had shown steady decline for 4 seasons in New YOrk and his last two were injury plagued, but he still put up 15 points, 10 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in his final NY season.  Naive Sonics fans were grasping to the hope that Ewing was going to bounce back to his former self.  Obviously it didn't happen...

I'm not hating on KG.  I love KG.  But lets be honest here... would anyone be shocked if he averaged 10 points and 6 rebounds this year?

Clearly he's never going to be the dominant presence he was in Minny.  I certainly hope he can bounce back to his early Boston self, but I find that pretty unlikely as well.

U used statistics as evidence for your point. But any person using statistics should know that statistics do not speak everything. I don't know if you watched all of last season, but KG got better as the year went on. And I also don't know if you noticed how KG performed in the playoffs, especially in the Cleveland series. He was rehabbing from an injury that most doctors say it will take a full year since surgery for the player to completely heal. KG's surgery was summer 2009. Prognosis is that this past summer, his knee is healed from surgery.

And if any of this isn't convincing, let's go back to statistics. From KG's last season in Minnesota to this past season, you used his stats to illustrate how KG is on a severe decline. But I am curious to know when you were copying and pasting those statistics, did you forget to glance at the minutes per game column? In 06-07, KG averaged 39 minutes a game! This past season, he averaged 29 a game. In 10 minutes, I am confident that KG will be able to score 6 points, block 1 shot, get a few rebound, dish out 2 assists. And if he does that, his stats with 39 minutes played will look very similar to those of 06-07. And remember last year KG wasn't completely healed. Imagine now that he is completely healed...

My prediction for his stats this year...
31 mpg, 16.4 points, 8.3 rebounds, 3 assists, 1.7 blocks, and 1.5 steals

[GreenFaith1819]

Yeah, I must go with kg is king, here. He's not done. I too believe he'll average right around what you stated - even at 34 years of age.

It's a true testament to the heart of the man that he averaged 14.3 pts, 7.3 rebs, 2.7 assists, .8 blocks, and a steal - on a recuperating knee. KG's fire is strong, indeed, and I believe it'll burn quite effectively for us for next 2-3 years, myself.

Sure - he's experiencing a natural decline in ability and skills. Sure - he's played a lot of NBA minutes. But KG is just not an ordinary player or person.

[BballTim]

KG is just about washed up

Thank god.. He's been in the shower forever. Dude needs to learn to save some for the fishes.

hah but seriously... he's just about washed up.  I'm not gonna compare KG to Vin Baker or anything... but this fanbase has a tendency to make excuses for washed up players and grasp at any positive sign as proof "he's back, baby!" ... Kinda like how we all were hoping Sheed would suddenly stop stinking like he did his final season in Detroit once motivation was there... or like we hoped Stephon Marbury would stop stinking like he had in NY now that he had a defined role... and how we all hope Jermaine and Shaq don't stink like they have for the past half decade.   

KG's just about done.  There's no miracle turnaround coming.  He's been on a steady decline for 3 years.

  Steady decline means progressively worse. Did you think his play got worse as the year went on last season? I'd disagree with your claim.

Exactly larry barf what the heck r u talking about?

Are you guys kidding me?  It's widely acknowledged by most sane people outside of Boston homers that KG is on a major decline.

06-07 =  22.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.2 steals
07-08 = 18.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.4 steals
08-09 = 15.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals
09-10 = 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, .8 blocks, 1 steal

  Of course, when asked whether you think he got worse as last year progressed, you come back with stats for his last 4 years. No sane person, inside Boston or not, would think that KG was playing better in November than he was in May or June. Calling people homers for recognizing the obvious makes you sound pretty ridiculous. Is he the player he was in 2007? Of course not. Is he washed up? Obviously not.

My response to that is this...   we had an 11 game winning streak in late November/Early December where KG had three games in a row where he had 20+ points.  That's something he has never done in Boston.  His stats during that stretch were fantastic.  People seem to forget we started the season 23-5 before fatigue set in for our old/almost washed up squad.

  Nobody forgot we were 23-5. I guess his scoring 20 points 3 games in a row (in your mind) proves your point.

Against Orlando in the ECF he averaged 10 points and 8 rebounds on 39% shooting.  He averaged 15 points and 5 rebounds in the finals.   Where's this myth coming from that he "got better" as the season progressed? 

  The myth is that he declined as the season progressed. First of all, his scoring numbers went up a little in the playoffs even though the Celt's scoring average went down by about 6 points a game. How does that translate into a decline? Secondly, look at the productivity of his opponents in the playoffs. His defense was great. (note: I'm talking about his overall play over the course of the playoffs. finding a good few games by his opponents over that 24 game stretch is pretty much as ridiculous as your example above).

The guy is just about washed up, folks.   Come to grips with it.  I'm sure KG looks more explosive than he did towards the end of last season.  He's old.  He was worn down.  He's got fresh legs.  Over the course of this season his body will betray him again and he'll continue to slip into NBA heaven.  It's just the way this goes.

  The point is that (almost) everybody who watches the team on a regular basis noticed that he was more explosive in the playoffs than he was during the season. He did, basically, the opposite of what you claim he did.

[zerophase]

I can't argue that KG isn't on the decline but that doesn't mean he can't have a break out season like Shaq in '08 in Phoenix. If you look at Shaq's stats here you see that he was on "the steady decline" right before he averaged 18 and 8.

2004–05   Miami   73   73   34.1   .601   .000   .461   10.4   2.7   .5   2.3   22.9
2005–06   Miami   59   58   30.6   .600   .000   .469   9.2   1.9   .4   1.8   20.0
2006–07   Miami   40   39   28.4   .591   .000   .422   7.4   2.0   .2   1.4   17.3
2007–08   Miami   33   33   28.6   .581   .000   .494   7.8   1.4   .6   1.6   14.2
2007–08   Phoenix   28   28   28.7   .611   .000   .513   10.6   1.7   .5   1.2   12.9
2008–09   Phoenix   75   75   30.0   .609   .000   .595   8.4   1.7   .6   1.4   17.8
2009–10   Cleveland   53   53   23.4   .566   .000   .496   6.7   1.5   .3   1.2   12.0

[mmbaby]

TP LarBrd33 for keeping it real. I love KG also but don't see him improving that much from last season, which was, for KG, mediocre. I do hope he has some kind of break out year this season but certainly don't count on it. He is still highly valuable to our team, though, and can still put up good numbers and defense.

[erisred]

This is a case where you need to look at the Per 36 numbers.

Code: [Select]

Year....Pts....Rbs 
2006...20.5...11.7 
2007...20.7...10.1 
2008...18.3....9.9 
2009...17.3....8.8 

Yes, KG's offensive numbers have declined, a little, but that is only partly do to age. Part of the decline in 2008 and 2009 was due to playing with an injury, having surgery and slowly recovering from that surgery. I'm sure *that* can account for a good hunk of the numeric decline over the last two years.

It is also true that KG's role has changed since he has come to Boston. He no longer is trying to carry a team offensively (like when he was in Minn). KG is playing fewer minutes, playing in the post less, shooting fewer times. I also think it is possible that KG's intensity level during the regular season has declined a bit the last two years. First, injuries and second the whole team coasting a lot probably means that KG didn't go quite as strong for rebounds and put backs like he did earlier in his career.

So, to me anyway, it looks like KG is declining, but quite slowly. When healthy, completely healthy, hardly any decline at all. With age comes more injury, more fatigue and slower recovery so yes, some decline...but hardly washed up!

No where near washed up!

[indeedproceed]

people keep looking at kgs pts as proof that he's in decline...but kg will never lose his crafty jumper or nose for the ball.
I the the bigger issue, and the one that will ultimately decide a lot of our games next season is his rebounding.

look at his rbp36, or his rebound rate since 2006~2007.
that's is where you know he's lost a step..on a bad rebound team who needed him he couldn't supply. if kg shows up next season rebounding like a champ then those who say he's due for a breakout season are right..but if he doesn't, they're wrong pts shouldn't even be in the equation.

[drza44]

Are you guys kidding me?  It's widely acknowledged by most sane people outside of Boston homers that KG is on a major decline.

06-07 =  22.4 points, 12.8 rebounds, 4.1 assists, 1.7 blocks, 1.2 steals
07-08 = 18.8 points, 9.2 rebounds, 3.4 assists, 1.3 blocks, 1.4 steals
08-09 = 15.8 points, 8.5 rebounds, 2.5 assists, 1.2 blocks, 1.1 steals
09-10 = 14.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, 2.7 assists, .8 blocks, 1 steal

How can you call that anything other than a steady decline?  It's a pretty blatant trend.  Now, I understand he has been effective.  No doubt.  I understand he's a solid defender and our best big man when compared to the rest of the guys on this squad.  I understand his minutes have dipped a little each year.  But come on guys... our boy is just about washed up.   It's a familiar trend.  Look at the steady decline of Hakeem, David Robinson or Ewing in the last 6 years of their careers.  Do you think that the Sonics were thinking in 2000 after signing Patrick Ewing that he was toast?  Of course not.  He had shown steady decline for 4 seasons in New YOrk and his last two were injury plagued, but he still put up 15 points, 10 rebounds and 1.4 blocks in his final NY season.  Naive Sonics fans were grasping to the hope that Ewing was going to bounce back to his former self.  Obviously it didn't happen...

I'm not hating on KG.  I love KG.  But lets be honest here... would anyone be shocked if he averaged 10 points and 6 rebounds this year?

Clearly he's never going to be the dominant presence he was in Minny.  I certainly hope he can bounce back to his early Boston self, but I find that pretty unlikely as well.

You seem to like stats, and seem to be very confident.  I like that.  But if you're that confident, why not come sit at the big boy table.  First, you give lip service to the changing role and minutes, but those aren't factored in to your "non-homer" numbers.  So, let's look at some other objective numbers, but this time ones that factor in both of those things.

06-07: 24.1 PER (1st on team); 0.171 Win Shares/48 min; +13.4 Roland Rating (82games.com; 1st)
07-08: 25.3 PER (1st on team); 0.265 Win Shares/48; +14.5 Roland Rating (1st)
08-09: 21.2 PER (1st on team); 0.193 Win Shares/48; +10.1 Roland Rating (1st)
09-10: 19.4 PER (1st on team); 0.171 Win Shares/48; +7.6 Roland Rating (1st)

So, what do these tell us?  First, that there was no decline at all between 06-07 and 07-08.  In fact, by most measure KG was better in '08 than he was in '07.  The difference in counting stats there was purely based on minutes played and team-role.  So there goes your 4-year decline argument.

Second, there was a clear decline from '08 to '09, and a smaller one from '09-'10.  So maybe you're at least partially right...maybe KG's been on a 3-year decline at least.  But wait...could there be a mitigating factor?  Oh, that's right!  KG had a huge bone spur that he played on over the entirety of the '09 season that eventually forced him out, then he had surgery to have that removed before the '10 season that takes a full year to recover from.  Oh, and even playing hobbled, KG still measured out as the best player on the team.

So, in summary, what can our "non-homer" numbers and common sense tell us?  It tells us that KG was fine in '08, then wasn't as good the next 2 years when he was playing injured and then playing while recovering from surgery, but that he was still arguably the best player on a championship contender.  And...that's about it.

So, let's end this off with a wager.  You're confident KG might go for 10 and 6 this year?  I tell you what, why don't we put an avatar bet on it.  If KG averages 10 and 6 and doesn't have a corresponding best-in-the-league-caliber defensive impact, I'll put whatever variation of "I'm a KG homer" on it that you like.  If, on the other hand, KG doesn't fall off the table like you're so adamantly stating, I get to decide what you carry around on your posts.  You in?

[drza44]

people keep looking at kgs pts as proof that he's in decline...but kg will never lose his crafty jumper or nose for the ball.
I the the bigger issue, and the one that will ultimately decide a lot of our games next season is his rebounding.

look at his rbp36, or his rebound rate since 2006~2007.
that's is where you know he's lost a step..on a bad rebound team who needed him he couldn't supply. if kg shows up next season rebounding like a champ then those who say he's due for a breakout season are right..but if he doesn't, they're wrong pts shouldn't even be in the equation.

I agree that rebounding (or more specifically, quick/explosive leaping) was the area where KG struggled the most last year.  However, it doesn't show up that much in the rebounding rate.  Over the last 3 years, these are KG's rebound rates:

07/08: 25.1% Defensive rebound %, 16.8 Total REbound %
08/09: 26.7% DRB, 16.6% TRB%
09/10: 24.8% DRB, 15.1% TRB%

KG's defensive rebound rate last year, while limping, was the same as it was in his last MVP-caliber year.  His offensive rebounding went way down, which maybe could be an evidence point, but that seems to be more evidence that he didn't go down in the paint as much on offense...which I didn't need numbers to tell me.  I didn't see him make a confident post move last season until Game 3 of the Finals.

Anyway, I agree with your point in theory.  KG's explosiveness was obviously gone last year, and the question of the year is how much (if any) of it he gets back.  But like LarBird's numbers, I think the talk of a multiple-year decline that you can easily find in the numbers is either overblown or doesn't really capture the circumstances.  I'm sure 34-year old KG isn't as good as 29-year old KG...but for 2 years he's been injured.  So there's no really good way to try to quantify how much of his "decline" is recoverable injury vs how much is from age that is gone for good.

[indeedproceed]

the best on team argument is a pretty poor one imo. kg has always been efficient, especially offensively. that tendency alone should boost your advanced metrics, even if he is a less dominant player than he used to be.

look at his rebound rate from 2005_06 thru this season. that is a good mark of his physical ability.

[indeedproceed]

im doing this from a phone, so I couldn't see the 'post made' notifier. apologies

[BballTim]

TP LarBrd33 for keeping it real. I love KG also but don't see him improving that much from last season, which was, for KG, mediocre. I do hope he has some kind of break out year this season but certainly don't count on it. He is still highly valuable to our team, though, and can still put up good numbers and defense.

  He doesn't need to have a breakout year. All he needs to really do is play as well as he did in the playoffs, when he was the best big on a team that knocked off 2 of the top 3 teams in the league and came within minutes of winning the title. He wasn't playing like someone who was "washed up" then, and I wouldn't expect him to next year.

[Boris Badenov]

Over the years, we've all seen situations like this. If I could sum up the general pattern it would be like this:
1. Aging star gets injured;
2. Aging star expresses optimism about recovery, claims will be "better than before";
3. Aging star makes initial comeback, which has a few moments of "good as before" and many more moments of "it's hard to watch, given how much we all love/respect this guy";
4. Next offseason, we hear about re-dedication to conditioning, full recovery etc., punctuated by a few gushing comments from teammates/coach;
5. The next year is worse, at least marginally and maybe even a lot.

I am not trying to be a killjoy here, but it is trivially easy to think about examples like this, from Celtics history and others'. There are very few counter-examples where the player - an older guy, specifically - comes back and matches his pre-injury form.

I will say that KG is about the last guy I'd bet against in this situation.

But, we need to be realistic about the odds, and we also need to filter any statements about how well KG is doing given everyone's strong desire to see him come back to "full strength" - whatever that is.

And frankly, we have a front 3 who have averaged 50-60 games each over the last three years and are only older. We have no assurance that Perkins will return this year at anything close to his previous level.

So, we have a lot of talent and are exposed to a lot of risk. Overall I'm hopeful, but I'm going to reserve judgment until mid-season at least on all of this.