CB Draft '10 Playoffs Eastern Conference Semi-Finals

[Fafnir]

The Playoffs are here! All discussion and voting will be done Thursday and this thread will be unlocked at midnight EST Wednesday.

Voting will all be done via PM to CB Draft Voting. Voting will end at 12:00 EST Thursday.

Please use the following format for your ballot.

*Your Name Here*
Chicago/Washington
Milwaukee/Orlando

So for an example if Jeff were to vote he might send this (if he decided to vote solely on "Euro Players"):

Jeff
Washington
Milwaukee

Here are links to the Press Conferences for each team:
(1) Chicago
(4) Washington

(2) Milwaukee
(3) Orlando

GMs should post what their tactics would be, how they feel they'd match up, and how they'd handle their rotations. Note that HCA will be the tie-breaker if voting is tied at the end of today.

Note to GMs off playoff teams:

7. You may not vote for your own team, this is to prevent skewing of overall results by every game theory loving GM from voting themselves in first place.

This rule is a bit unclear it was meant for regular season voting, it doesn't matter in a head to head situation so feel free to list your own team as the winner. If a GM doesn't think his team will win (or fails to vote) boo to him!

Each GM team will still however only get a single vote however, I will count the first ballot I receive.

[Fafnir]

Game on!

[indeedproceed]

Le-Bron, Bom-aye! Le-Bron, Bom-aye!

[indeedproceed]

Chicago's Take On The Washington Boxers:

Jennings V Felton:
They met 4 times last season, and Brandon Jennings absolutely dominated Raymond Felton. Despite the fact that Felton played for a playoff team, a team with a top defense, Brandon Jennings still averaged almost 20 points and 6 assists vs Felton, upping his FG%, and keeping a respectable (if not dangerous) 35% 3pt percentage.

In the one playoff series Raymond Felton has played in during his career, he played his usual minutes, and his scoring went down, his assists went down, his shooting % went down (both FG% and 3pt%), and his team was swept.

In the one series that Brandon Jennings has played in, just six games after his leading scorer went down, his minutes went up, his scoring went up, and his FG% went up. His team played a 3 seed without their best player and went to 7 games, while Felton's team played their series with their normal healthy roster, and he got worse, his team getting swept. Jennings owns this.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=jennibr01&p2=feltora01

Miller V Ginobli:
These two have a history, and their H2H’s don’t look great...at least not for Washington. For the majority of the recent matchups between SAS and MEM (while Miller played there), Miller played the 2 while Rudy Gay played the 3. In those matchups Ginobli would often guard Miller, and vice versa.

The same is true when McGrady played in Orlando with Miller, and Miller would play the 2.

Their overall matchups over 18 games are 15.6 ppg (42% shooting), 3.3 rbs, and 4.2 ast per game for Ginobli, and 12.6 pts (45% shooting), 5.8 rebounds, 3.1 asts per game for Miller. Edge: Ginobli, but not by anything close to a mile. Miller is the worse player, but Ginobli doesn't render him ineffective. Also if Washington manages to get into a close game where Ginobli is hot, I can slide LeBron James, 2x All-NBA defensive selection, over to defend him if I need to.

Noah V Bynum:

They met twice last season, and both times, Noah stayed in the game for longer, and out-rebounded and out-defended Bynum. Bynum limited Noah’s FG%, but beyond that Noah fouled less and blocked more shots. Bynum came out looking the better scorer by the minute, but Noah came out the better player. I’d attribute that to 2 seasons spent as the emotional leader for the NCAA champion Florida Gators, as opposed to coming out of high school without any leadership experience.

Link to stats

Ersan Ilyasova V Luis Scola:

I took Ersan and Scola's season totals, finding the production per minute, then multiplied by 31 (to see production if they all played 31 minutes)



direct link to image

The things Ersan does well (stretch the floor, rebound, defend), Scola cannot negate. The things Scola does well (score in the post, rebound, defend), Ersan cannot negate. I'm not saying this is a wash, Scola is the better player. But Ersan will be able to bother Scola's shot, and he'll be able to rebound on a comparable if not better rate.

I should also say regarding any concerns about me overrating Ilyasova, I'm not expecting an All-star series out of the kid. I'm expecting him to play 8 minutes more than his average, in a secure roll (instead of jumping up and down in terms of pt, like he did under Skiles), and average between 14-15 ppg, and 8-10 rebounds while shooting 35% from 3pt range (he is a career 35% shooter from 3). I think he's given a good body of evidence that he can accomplish that.

Scola is the better player, but Ersan is no slouch. He’ll keep Scola from helping Bynum in the paint by forcing a consistent cover at the 3pt line, and he should by all rights out-rebound Scola. Scola will get his points against Ersan, and there will be some baskets where they will be easy ones where Scola just gets the position he wants. I think though that Ersan has proven after a full season playing the power forward, that it won’t be often that Scola gets wherever he wants, and it won’t be often that he gets his easy baskets.I don’t need a lot from Ersan, I just need enough.


Also I expect him to cure cancer and un-cancel 'FireFly'

LeBron V Wilson Chandler:

LeBron James dominates Wilson Chandler in every facet of the game, without question. LeBron: 35 points, 7 rebounds, 9 assists, 55% FG, 42% 3pt, to Wilson Chandler’s 10 points, 5 rebounds, 2 assists, and 36% FG, 26% 3pt.

In their last game, LeBron scored 47 points to Chandler’s 6.

Link to stats

Conclusion:

There is, simply, no response to LeBron, and not enough from the other starters. My starting 5 absolutely dominates Washington’s, and considering Scola to be the only one with a shot of really exploiting his matchup on a game to game basis, I can’t see a way Chicago loses this series. We could talk about the bench play all day long, and I’d contest that my 10 man rotation is better if you look at the roles they’re asked to play, but the proof is right there in the starters. Washington doesn’t have a significant place to hang their hat, and they don't have an answer for LeBron. This should be there for the taking by Chicago.

[Rondo2287]

Hey fellas,
So here is how i see it. 

Kidd and Terry are both very effective players in this league but both very different.  Terry is an undersized 2 guard who works well with the Mavs because of how big Kidd is.  He also works well with Joe Johnson so i will give Champ that.  I think both these PG's work well in our individual systems.  However with  3 other shooters on his team, I think Terry gets lost in the mix a bit.  So I think Kidd is an advantage here for me.

Rip and Johnson is an obvious matchup in favor of Orlando.  Johnson just got a max deal in this league and is one of its star players.  The one knock i have on Johnsons game is that he is very streaky, he either has a stellar game or is non-exhistant.  In the Grind that is the NBA playoffs that isnt what you want out of your number one offensive option.  I also like Rips defensive ability on Johnson.  Rip is one of the few two guards in the league that can matchup with Johnson.  Also Rip will tire Johnson out on the offensive end running him off endless screens.

Maggette and Carter.  This is one of the biggest advantages that i think i have.  Carter doesnt play defense and will get in serious foul trouble playing against Maggette.  I think we saw in the playoff series against orlando that Carter is able to be completely taken out of games when things dont go his way.  I expect that to happen in this series.

I think the Aldridge and Dirk Matchup is one of the most intriguing in the series. Both very talented offensive players in their own rights, I expect this to be a fun one to watch but one that ultimately ends up with nights where Dirk outscores Aldridge 28-16 or in that area.

I think Biedrins and Gortat are kind of a wash, Biedrins is a more offensively talented player than gortat but Gortat is much better defensively.  I pretty much think this is a wash. 

In the end I think my advantage at the point, sf, and pf, as well as home court advantage outweigh orlando's advantage at the 2 guard and wins me the series.

[nickagneta]

Washington vs Chicago

Defensive Strategy - Again the Washington strategy versus the Bulls defensively will be the same here as it was in the previous series and that will be to stop everyone else and make the "superstar" beat the "team" all by himself by denying him his shooters and packing it in on the inside. My colleague in Chicago is great for trying to show you individual matchups with limited head to head stats but one thing that he fails to address is where is he going to get the inside scoring necessary to force the Boxers to open up the paint to penetration and stop the Boxers from making LeBron, Miller and Jennings prove they can win the series all by their threesome with outside shooting.

THIS IS THE KEY TO THE ENTIRE SERIES!!!

The matchups that IP mentioned above show that Noah and Ilysova COMBINED average less than 10 points per game in their head to head matchups with Bynum and Scola. And it doesn't get any better with his bench as Amundson is a severely limited offensive player and in his direct matchups versus Udonis Haslem has given up 10 points per game.

Yes you heard that right. The Boxers back up big man in his direct matchup with the Bulls back up big man scores more points per game than the entire Bulls starting frontcourt in their matchups versus the Boxers starting front court.

So the Bulls will have to try to prove that Mike Miller, LeBron James and Brandon Jennings(he of the 37% FG%) can beat the overall team of the Boxers by shooting outside the whole game when the Boxer players first play tough deny defense to get them the ball and then back off the players and try to force them to shoot the ball outside.

If those players for the Bulls can shoot lights out, the Bulls stand a chance to win a seven game series. If they don't, they lose bad.

Offensive Strategy - The offensive strategy here will be to play Boxer ball by going with the pick and roll with Manu and Scola and work those matchups and pounding it into Bynum when the opportunities present itself. felton will dribble penetrate when he can and kick for the outside shooters.

The Boxers will also probably go nine to ten deep in this one particular series as their depth will try to exploit the severe lack of depth that the Bulls have. Ginobili, Budinger, Barbosa and Greene are all very good outside and three point shooters whose games will open the inside for Haslem, Scola and Bynum and even Felton had a very good season last year shooting the three ball.

The Boxers will try to employ a running unit at least once a half for a couple three minutes of Bayless, Ginobili, Budinger, Greene, and Bynum and attempt speed up the pace in order to create outside three pointers, space the floor for Bynum inside to work and eventually wear down the Bulls in the series because they really can only go 6-7 players deep before they have a tremendous drop off in talent that the Boxers can take advantage of.

If the Boxers can force the Bulls into trying to go 9 or 10 players deep to keep their players fresh, the Boxers quality depth will have done it's job and will take advantage of the awful Bulls bench.

[Roy H.]

nick,

I read your strategy, and "packing the paint" and practicing tough ball denial is a good one.  However, I assume that IP is going to have Ilyasova drift outside, behind the three point line.  If Scola is forced to go out and cover him, can Bynum defend the paint on his own?  What's your strategy for those situations?

Also, how do you exploit your HUGE depth advantage? 

[Roy H.]

IP:  I think your starters are better than nick's.  However, what do you do when your guys get into foul trouble? 

I mean, one of the things people are forgetting is that Ilyasova played 23 minutes per game last season, and one of the reasons for that is that he fouls *a lot*.  Noah picks up his fair share, as well.  If Bynum and Scola get your bigs into foul trouble, you're cooked, right?

Also, you have three starters who averaged 33, 30, and 23 minutes per game last year, respectively.  Behind them, you have terrible backups.  Even assuming modest increases in minutes, how will your bench players be able to sustain themselves for 12 - 15 minutes per night?

[Kwhit10]

Rondo what's your analysis of your bench vs Orlando's?

[nickagneta]

nick,

I read your strategy, and "packing the paint" and practicing tough ball denial is a good one.  However, I assume that IP is going to have Ilyasova drift outside, behind the three point line.  If Scola is forced to go out and cover him, can Bynum defend the paint on his own?  What's your strategy for those situations?

Also, how do you exploit your HUGE depth advantage? 

Last first. I thought I already explained how I would exploit the depth advantage. I will go 9 deep and go with a small ball strategy(even though the participants won't be so small) at least a few minutes every half and run and gun and run some more. The goal will be to wear down the 6-7 Bulls who will be playing regular minutes and get the advantages later in the series.

I plan on running multiple fresh defenders at Lebron in a hope that quantity and fresh legs will slow him up some. While LeBron will have the strength and talent advantage on Budinger, Chandler and greene(yes Greene will be doing some coverage on Lebron) what Lebron doesn't have is the length and height advantages. Also, all three of those players are very fast and quick for their size and should be able to attempt to force Lebron to stay outside and then use their length and agility to try to get a hand in his face.

Regarding the Ilysova wandering from the paint and dragging Scola with him, let them. Scola will play way off him and cheat to help defend underneath. The overall strategy remains the same. Make them beat us from outside. If Miller or LeBron isn't taking the outside shot because the Bulls want to bring Ilysova outside and seeing him open feed him the ball for the outside shot, that's a huge win for the Boxers. the Boxers will live with Ilysova having to beat them from the outside. If he can do it, hats off to him. But if I had a choice and wanted the Bulls having Miller, Jennings, LeBron or Ilysova taking an outside shot, the Boxers want it being Ilysova.

Let him go outside, the Boxer strategy remains the same.

[Roy H.]

I'm not going to vote until later tonight, but I wanted to be candid about where I stand.  Right now, I'm leaning toward both Chicago and Milwaukee.  I'm wavering a bit, though, on the Chicago pick, because I think the Bulls' lack of depth is killer.  I'm probably a little more solid with the Milwaukee pick, but that one isn't set in stone, either; Nashville / Orlando seems to have a pretty big depth advantage.

[nickagneta]

nick,

I read your strategy, and "packing the paint" and practicing tough ball denial is a good one.  However, I assume that IP is going to have Ilyasova drift outside, behind the three point line.  If Scola is forced to go out and cover him, can Bynum defend the paint on his own?  What's your strategy for those situations?

Also, how do you exploit your HUGE depth advantage? 

Roy brings up an excellent point regarding foul trouble. In the playoffs someone is always getting into foul trouble every game, sometimes 2 and 3 somebodies. The more physical nature, the emotions running higher and the tighter calls by refs to maintain order ALWAYS has someone in foul trouble on both sides of the ball.

Simply put, the Boxers have the depth to overcome such a situation whereas the Bulls do not. Put Noah or Ilysova or both in foul trouble in a game and suddenly the Bulls are asking Amundson or lawal or Asik to play big minutes and produce against players that are much, much more talented than they are.

[Roy H.]

nick,

I read your strategy, and "packing the paint" and practicing tough ball denial is a good one.  However, I assume that IP is going to have Ilyasova drift outside, behind the three point line.  If Scola is forced to go out and cover him, can Bynum defend the paint on his own?  What's your strategy for those situations?

Also, how do you exploit your HUGE depth advantage? 

Roy brings up an excellent point regarding foul trouble. In the playoffs someone is always getting into foul trouble every game, sometimes 2 and 3 somebodies. The more physical nature, the emotions running higher and the tighter calls by refs to maintain order ALWAYS has someone in foul trouble on both sides of the ball.

Simply put, the Boxers have the depth to overcome such a situation whereas the Bulls do not. Put Noah or Ilysova or both in foul trouble in a game and suddenly the Bulls are asking Amundson or lawal or Asik to play big minutes and produce against players that are much, much more talented than they are.

Yeah, the more I think about it, the more I'm asked how Chicago is going to overcome that.  I don't think Ilyasova or Noah or Jennings can play 40 minutes per game.

[Fafnir]

nick,

I read your strategy, and "packing the paint" and practicing tough ball denial is a good one.  However, I assume that IP is going to have Ilyasova drift outside, behind the three point line.  If Scola is forced to go out and cover him, can Bynum defend the paint on his own?  What's your strategy for those situations?

Also, how do you exploit your HUGE depth advantage?  

Roy brings up an excellent point regarding foul trouble. In the playoffs someone is always getting into foul trouble every game, sometimes 2 and 3 somebodies. The more physical nature, the emotions running higher and the tighter calls by refs to maintain order ALWAYS has someone in foul trouble on both sides of the ball.

Simply put, the Boxers have the depth to overcome such a situation whereas the Bulls do not. Put Noah or Ilysova or both in foul trouble in a game and suddenly the Bulls are asking Amundson or lawal or Asik to play big minutes and produce against players that are much, much more talented than they are.

But when I look at your game plan and rosters, I think foul trouble will be more a Boxer big men concern than Chicago.

You have SF who does not have the strength, size, or quickness to effectively defend Lebron James. Your pack the paint strategy is going to result in a lot of free throws because Chandler is not going to be able to direct LeBron where the defense wants.

You only have one big I'd trust on your bench too.

[wdleehi]

nick,

I read your strategy, and "packing the paint" and practicing tough ball denial is a good one.  However, I assume that IP is going to have Ilyasova drift outside, behind the three point line.  If Scola is forced to go out and cover him, can Bynum defend the paint on his own?  What's your strategy for those situations?

Also, how do you exploit your HUGE depth advantage? 

Last first. I thought I already explained how I would exploit the depth advantage. I will go 9 deep and go with a small ball strategy(even though the participants won't be so small) at least a few minutes every half and run and gun and run some more. The goal will be to wear down the 6-7 Bulls who will be playing regular minutes and get the advantages later in the series.

I plan on running multiple fresh defenders at Lebron in a hope that quantity and fresh legs will slow him up some. While LeBron will have the strength and talent advantage on Budinger, Chandler and greene(yes Greene will be doing some coverage on Lebron) what Lebron doesn't have is the length and height advantages. Also, all three of those players are very fast and quick for their size and should be able to attempt to force Lebron to stay outside and then use their length and agility to try to get a hand in his face.

Regarding the Ilysova wandering from the paint and dragging Scola with him, let them. Scola will play way off him and cheat to help defend underneath. The overall strategy remains the same. Make them beat us from outside. If Miller or LeBron isn't taking the outside shot because the Bulls want to bring Ilysova outside and seeing him open feed him the ball for the outside shot, that's a huge win for the Boxers. the Boxers will live with Ilysova having to beat them from the outside. If he can do it, hats off to him. But if I had a choice and wanted the Bulls having Miller, Jennings, LeBron or Ilysova taking an outside shot, the Boxers want it being Ilysova.

Let him go outside, the Boxer strategy remains the same.

Wouldn't small ball be a blessing for Chicago?


Slide Lebron over to PF and give more minutes to TA would protect his big men more then it would hurt his team.  



Chicago, any thought to moving Lebron over to guard Manu?  Lebron is one of the top swing defenders (as we saw with the effect he had on Pierce in the playoffs) and he could slow Manu down.  

Can DC win if the number 1 threat ends up being Bynum going at Noah when they have no real answer to Lebron?