So, at the moment, I plan to vote Utah. I haven't read the whole thread (the first page had a lot), but these are my reasons why. They are mostly, unfortunately, critiques on Roy's arguments.
Green is going to have to play, at minimum, 18, and probably closer to 23. That's a HUGE advantage for the Kings.
I don't see why at all. Calderon played 30 and 34 mpg the two previous seasons and his minutes were reduced this year because the Raptors had a very viable option as a backup pg. With a lesser option at pg in Utah, I say Calderon plays 30-34 minutes without much question.
And in 6 career matchups, Rose has done all BUT dominate Calderon!
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=caldejo01&p2=rosede01
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Once you get past the fact that the Yao/Gasol vs. Boozer/Randolph battle has actually favored Boozer/Randolph, there's no way that Utah can win.
So, when I started reading this and saw your previous stats, I thought... "interesting". Then I realized, "wait, gasol kinda owned boozer in the '10 playoffs" and "wait, why can't yao guard randolph? i feel like he'd do a phenominal job on him" If I ran Utah, I'd switch up these matchups... Roy doesn't get to pick my matchups for me!!
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=boozeca01&p2=gasolpa01
http://www.basketball-reference.com/play-index/h2h_finder.cgi?request=1&p1=randoza01&p2=mingya01
Turns out that Boozer and Gasol have played eachother almost dead even statistically over their 15 game careers (with Gasol a 10-5 record and not often on the better team) [edit: and also recently outplaying him in '10 playoffs]. Yao has actually dominated Randolph. The ppg, fg%, and blocks per game tell me a lot about how this matchup will play out when they play eachother and it's heavily in Yao's favor.
Some points, in order:
1. If people want to argue that Utah is a stronger team with Yao on the bench, they can be my guest. Utah without Yao is a borderline playoff team.
2. It's a playful quote, but it surprises me that any Celtics fan could underrate rebounding, after it was pretty much the sole reason we just lost the championship.
3. If you think Jose Calderon and Willie Green can consistently contain Derrick Rose, I don't know what to tell you. This kid torched Rajon Rondo in the playoffs. He's not too worried about Jose Calderon. Also, Calderon has battled numerous injuries since he was playing 34 minutes a game, and he's been benched in Toronto.
4. It's funny that you think Yao "dominated" Randolph, when there's a 2.5 ppg disparity. Randolph also outrebounded Yao by a healthy margin. The most relevant point, though, is that Randolph was never asked to guard Yao, unlike in the Yao/Boozer and Gasol/Randolph matchups. In other words, your stats are irrelevant.
4a. Those stats were for a pre-injury Yao; he's coming off two surgeries and a missed season since then.
I appreciate the comments, but honestly, I have a hard time taking an argument seriously that minimizes the difference between Rose and Calderon. Even using your projections, if Pau and Boozer cancel each other out, and Yao slightly outscores Randolph but gets outrebounded him, that will be a huge win for Sacramento. If the front courts play evenly, Sacramento wins this series in a rout.
And to your counters that I feel are worth responding to:
1. Yeah, Yao would be on the bench, but your lineup also assumes that Randolph (who you claim matches up better against Gasol) or Boozer would be on the bench as well. So it's highly possible that your best or 2nd best player (Boozer) is on the bench during these stretches. Sacramento without Boozer? Borderline playoff team as well. In your defense though, Utah actually would be lucky to be considered "borderline playoff". But I think it's agreed upon that this lineup would not be used often, but for short periods. If used for extended periods, Utah simply deals with Pau defending the perimeter and Yao down low that way they can abuse Rashard on offense.
3. I think the "he torched this guy, obviously he'll torch this lesser player" is a clearly inappropriate statement. Basketball matchups do not abide by the transitive property. Some players simply match up better against others. To think that Calderon
could possibly contain Rose in a 7 game series when he already has in 6 career games is not ludacris by any means. Really, its not. And my main point wasn't even that he could contain Rose. My point was to explain why I felt Calderon could play 30-34 mpg as opposed to 25-30. That reason simply being because he's played that much before and when he hasn't it was because there was a very good backup in place which there is not in Utah.
4. You're right, perhaps the stats would be irrelevant since it would be very unlikely that they guarded eachother. The "domination" I
was thinking of was twofold. 1) The outscoring by 3.3ppg while attempting 2 less fga per game, which I find very significant. (But possibly irrelevant b/c maybe Yao has always played alongside strong defensive PFs and Randolph alongside weak defensive Cs) 2) It's pretty clear that Yao would outplay him on the defensive end as well. Again, #1 should not be considered too strongly now for reasons just explained. But, as a blogger, wanted to explain my claim.
Topic: CB Draft '10 Playoffs Western Conference Semi-Finals (Read 35979 times)