CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference

[mgent]

I guess the key to this game is to go with the overrated and recently hyped players.

[Roy H.]

I guess the key to this game is to go with the overrated and recently hyped players.

To some extent, that's true.  Teams that build around a superstar (Lebron, Wade, Howard, etc.) and teams built around recent champions (Pau Gasol) will have a leg up over other teams. 

That said, the teams that have advanced to the "final eight" are all pretty good ones, I think.

[Fafnir]

I guess the key to this game is to go with the overrated and recently hyped players.

I think depth, size, having a big time player, and frankly having a good argument are the key to this game.

Your team only went 1 deep at the PF/C position with high level performers in the NBA. That's not going to cut it. (Assuming you're playing Marion at the 3)

You also didn't put out a well thought out press conference style breakdown of the match ups that Walker Wiggle did. If you want to have a chance at an upset that's what you have to do.

You said my backcourt will tear up Utah, true.

You then said KG/Big Ben will hold their own rebounding, false, so I'll win.

You never gave us any meat to those thoughts!

[mgent]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

[indeedproceed]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

There is nothing wrong with not agreeing. But, like Fafnir said...you gotta put some meat behind it. KG didn't just have a bad series, he had a bad year. His rebounds per 48 minutes were significantly off, he was having trouble staying in front of defenders (though by no means was it a common occurance, but people were just blowing by him once and a while. That never happened once in 07/08 or 08/09 while he was healthy)..

KG had some real questions that needed answering before anyone was going to buy him being an elite player. Its not really opinion, its fact based on evidence.

[nickagneta]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

If it's any consolation I was one of your 4 votes. I just have no faith in Yao being 100% his first year back especially if he is still playing in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's out of the series, just hampered and not performing near Yao expected levels and without that, I think your superiority in the backcourt and SF position take over and would have won the series for the Clips.

[indeedproceed]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

If it's any consolation I was one of your 4 votes. I just have no faith in Yao being 100% his first year back especially if he is still playing in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's out of the series, just hampered and not performing near Yao expected levels and without that, I think your superiority in the backcourt and SF position take over and would have won the series for the Clips.

Where are you leaning in the sacramento series then?

Also, with that line of thinking, do you think its fair to say "I just don't believe Oden/Bynum finished the season healthy, so NY/Washington loses"?

[Roy H.]

For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

I understand your position, but I do think that most of the fans on here have a pretty informed opinion of Kevin Garnett, and aren't basing their evaluation on one playoff series.  Their opinion may not be accurate, but it's not uninformed.

However, I do think that only a handful of players really get put under a microscope.  A guy like Andrew Bynum, for instance, is labeled as injury prone, but a guy like Pau Gasol is assumed to be healthy, despite having missed 16+ games in three of the past four seasons.  Guys like Zach Randolph are scrutinized, but people assume that Vince Carter will willingly adjust to coming off the bench and playing out of position.

This game is largely about conventional wisdom, you're absolutely correct.  That's why it's important to start early, trying to convince people that your team is for real.  I think in your own case, your team suffered a bit because you didn't dedicate a lot of time to the "social" aspect of the draft.  Rather, you made your picks, and that was about it.  Arguably that should be enough, but as we've seen, in this game that usually doesn't cut it.  People want to vote for folks who seem fully invested.

[Roy H.]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

If it's any consolation I was one of your 4 votes. I just have no faith in Yao being 100% his first year back especially if he is still playing in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's out of the series, just hampered and not performing near Yao expected levels and without that, I think your superiority in the backcourt and SF position take over and would have won the series for the Clips.

Where are you leaning in the sacramento series then?

Also, with that line of thinking, do you think its fair to say "I just don't believe Oden/Bynum finished the season healthy, so NY/Washington loses"?

I can pretty much guarantee nick isn't voting for Sacramento, no matter who I'm up against. 

If I have a healthy Randolph and Boozer going against Pau and a hobbled Yao, I should have that series in the bag.  Especially, of course, with the worst defensive PG in the NBA guarding Derrick Rose (and with Calderon incapable of playing more than 30 minutes, and not having a backup PG). 

[mgent]

For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

I understand your position, but I do think that most of the fans on here have a pretty informed opinion of Kevin Garnett, and aren't basing their evaluation on one playoff series.  Their opinion may not be accurate, but it's not uninformed.

However, I do think that only a handful of players really get put under a microscope.  A guy like Andrew Bynum, for instance, is labeled as injury prone, but a guy like Pau Gasol is assumed to be healthy, despite having missed 16+ games in three of the past four seasons.  Guys like Zach Randolph are scrutinized, but people assume that Vince Carter will willingly adjust to coming off the bench and playing out of position.

This game is largely about conventional wisdom, you're absolutely correct.  That's why it's important to start early, trying to convince people that your team is for real.  I think in your own case, your team suffered a bit because you didn't dedicate a lot of time to the "social" aspect of the draft.  Rather, you made your picks, and that was about it.  Arguably that should be enough, but as we've seen, in this game that usually doesn't cut it.  People want to vote for folks who seem fully invested.

Oh well.  Maybe I'll be back next year with more time to be social and make picks on schedule.

[nickagneta]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

If it's any consolation I was one of your 4 votes. I just have no faith in Yao being 100% his first year back especially if he is still playing in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's out of the series, just hampered and not performing near Yao expected levels and without that, I think your superiority in the backcourt and SF position take over and would have won the series for the Clips.

Where are you leaning in the sacramento series then?

Also, with that line of thinking, do you think its fair to say "I just don't believe Oden/Bynum finished the season healthy, so NY/Washington loses"?

Bynum not so much because he only had arthroscopic surgery.  But Oden and Yao, especially Yao you have to expect a bit more of a probability that they could be hampered or miss time and even more especially late in the season after trying to play on their injuries.

Bynum only had a torn meniscus

Oden broke his kneecap without even having any contact cause the break. He had major surgery.

Yao twice had his foot operated on after it didn't heal the first time and his size will limit possible long term career aspirations because of the pressure put on that chronically weak area of his body.

I gave all three the benefit of the doubt of making it through the season and even treated my arguments of Oden vs Bynum as both fully healthy. But with Yao, he's older, it's a bone structure and fracture situation and he had some doctors calling his injury career ending, especially after it didn't heal after the first surgery.

I thought that HAD to be considered there.

[nickagneta]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

If it's any consolation I was one of your 4 votes. I just have no faith in Yao being 100% his first year back especially if he is still playing in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's out of the series, just hampered and not performing near Yao expected levels and without that, I think your superiority in the backcourt and SF position take over and would have won the series for the Clips.

Where are you leaning in the sacramento series then?

Also, with that line of thinking, do you think its fair to say "I just don't believe Oden/Bynum finished the season healthy, so NY/Washington loses"?

I can pretty much guarantee nick isn't voting for Sacramento, no matter who I'm up against. 

If I have a healthy Randolph and Boozer going against Pau and a hobbled Yao, I should have that series in the bag.  Especially, of course, with the worst defensive PG in the NBA guarding Derrick Rose (and with Calderon incapable of playing more than 30 minutes, and not having a backup PG). 

Wrong again Roy.

Against Utah, Sacramento wins because I have to consider the longer Yao plays the more likely he doesn't make it through the season and then, with just Lopez there and not a real center, the Sacramento Assorted Power Forwards(which should be their name instead of the Kings) will be extremely effective.

I saw Utah as a very good regular season team that rolled the dice on Yao and I see them failing in the playoffs because of that. You got one vote.

[Roy H.]

Eh, whatever.  It obvious everyone on this board has different opinions on what "cuts it."  All the teams have flaws and I thought overall mine was one of the stronger teams.  And I wasn't gonna spend my time arguing to no end when chances were I wasn't gonna change anyone's mind.

People are gonna see what they see in teams, and they'll harp on some teams' flaws while ignoring others.  For instance, (yesterday from Wdleehi) Rashard Lewis has a good track record in the playoffs and just had a bad series, but Kevin Garnett had a bad series and now no one seems to believe he can rebound a basketball.

No hard feelings with anyone, I just don't fully agree with the way some people voted.

If it's any consolation I was one of your 4 votes. I just have no faith in Yao being 100% his first year back especially if he is still playing in the playoffs. I'm not saying he's out of the series, just hampered and not performing near Yao expected levels and without that, I think your superiority in the backcourt and SF position take over and would have won the series for the Clips.

Where are you leaning in the sacramento series then?

Also, with that line of thinking, do you think its fair to say "I just don't believe Oden/Bynum finished the season healthy, so NY/Washington loses"?

I can pretty much guarantee nick isn't voting for Sacramento, no matter who I'm up against. 

If I have a healthy Randolph and Boozer going against Pau and a hobbled Yao, I should have that series in the bag.  Especially, of course, with the worst defensive PG in the NBA guarding Derrick Rose (and with Calderon incapable of playing more than 30 minutes, and not having a backup PG). 

Wrong again Roy.

Against Utah, Sacramento wins because I have to consider the longer Yao plays the more likely he doesn't make it through the season and then, with just Lopez there and not a real center, the Sacramento Assorted Power Forwards(which should be their name instead of the Kings) will be extremely effective.

I saw Utah as a very good regular season team that rolled the dice on Yao and I see them failing in the playoffs because of that. You got one vote.

Have I mentioned what an astute GM nick is?

[The Walker Wiggle]

You also didn't put out a well thought out press conference style breakdown of the match ups that Walker Wiggle did. If you want to have a chance at an upset that's what you have to do.

The Walker Wiggle? The Walker Wiggle that finished dead last in first round votes? With less than half the number of votes that a Knicks team that didn't post any game plan or even a presser received?

I'm going to say match-up breakdowns are overrated.

Don't beat yourself up over it mgent.

[Roy H.]

For people who haven't studied the series as closely as nick, here's how Pau Gasol and Zach Randolph have matched up:

20 games played (10 wins, 10 losses each)

Pau:  17.8 points, 9.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists, 2.8 turnovers, 48.2% FG% in 37.3 minutes

Randolph:  19.3 points, 9.8 rebounds, 1.7 assists, 2.2 turnovers, 48.1% FG% in 30.4 minutes

In other words, Randolph scores more points and grabs more rebounds, despite playing seven fewer minutes per game.  This isn't an aberration over a couple games, either; it's been a pattern for several years.

Randolph has had some of the biggest games of his career against Pau, including a 43 points / 17 rebound game, and another game where he went for 42 / 12.  Since Gasol has moved to LA, Randolph has averaged 20.0 points and 13.7 rebounds, to Gasol's 15.3 points and 10.3 boards.

In other words:  Advantage Randolph.  (I fully expect people not to buy into Randolph trumping Gasol, but head to head, that's exactly what has happened.)