CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Western Conference

[indeedproceed]

For Sacramento:

Stephen Curry/Brandon Roy are head and shoulders above Rose/Garcia.

Derrick Rose is a very good point guard, but he's primarily a scorer, with limited defense and not spectacular passing. Fransico Garcia is a player in the NBA, but a borderline starter on the Kings, let alone a team with title aspirations.

Brandon Roy is the 3rd or maybe 4th (depending on your feelings with Joe Johnson) best SG in the NBA, and Stephen Curry was arguably the best pure point guard of this years' stacked at that position rookie class.

What are you expectations between those matchups with your team, without using the names Boozer, Randolph, or Lewis.

[The Walker Wiggle]

How is Davis & Turkoglu's ability to play alongside each other any different than Nelson & Turkoglu's, which was already displayed as a successful combination alongside Dwight Howard.

WW you also really avoided IP's question,

How do you lineup with me having Turkoglu at the 4?

Davis is a higher usage player who shoots and a far worse shooter than Nelson. I much prefer a roll man that shoots .406 FG% and .277 3PT% (Davis) to .449 FG% .381 3PT% (Nelson). Although I agree with Who that Davis/Turkoglu only becomes a real problem when you add another high usage scorer into the line-up such as Jamison and Salmons.

And I thought I had addressed Turkoglu at the 4? I'll continue to cover him with Wallace. If this is the starting line-up:

The starting lineup is:

Howard
Jamison
Turkoglu
Salmons
Davis

[Who]

Sam Dalembert can guard Tim Duncan. He won't stop him but his length makes life difficult for Duncan. He has done a good job on Duncan in the past.

The Rockets can let Duncan go one-on-one. That matchup won't kill them. Helping on Duncan will kill them because Duncan is a very good passer and he'll get their shooters good shots.

http://www.basketball-reference.com/boxscores/200803150PHI.html

The Sixers won that game because of Dalembert's defense on Duncan.

[StartOrien]

How is Davis & Turkoglu's ability to play alongside each other any different than Nelson & Turkoglu's, which was already displayed as a successful combination alongside Dwight Howard.

WW you also really avoided IP's question,

How do you lineup with me having Turkoglu at the 4?

Davis is a higher usage player who shoots and a far worse shooter than Nelson. I much prefer a roll man that shoots .406 FG% and .277 3PT% (Davis) to .449 FG% .381 3PT% (Nelson). Although I agree with Who that Davis/Turkoglu only becomes a real problem when you add another high usage scorer into the line-up such as Jamison and Salmons.

And I thought I had addressed Turkoglu at the 4? I'll continue to cover him with Wallace. If this is the starting line-up:

The starting lineup is:

Howard
Jamison
Turkoglu
Salmons
Davis

Jamison is only starting for a little. More times than not, when you have Cousins & Horford I'd go with:

Howard
Turkoglu
Salmons
Matthews/Fernandez/Williams
B-Diddy

[wdleehi]

How is Davis & Turkoglu's ability to play alongside each other any different than Nelson & Turkoglu's, which was already displayed as a successful combination alongside Dwight Howard.

WW you also really avoided IP's question,

How do you lineup with me having Turkoglu at the 4?

Davis is a higher usage player who shoots and a far worse shooter than Nelson. I much prefer a roll man that shoots .406 FG% and .277 3PT% (Davis) to .449 FG% .381 3PT% (Nelson). Although I agree with Who that Davis/Turkoglu only becomes a real problem when you add another high usage scorer into the line-up such as Jamison and Salmons.

And I thought I had addressed Turkoglu at the 4? I'll continue to cover him with Wallace. If this is the starting line-up:

The starting lineup is:

Howard
Jamison
Turkoglu
Salmons
Davis

Jamison is only starting for a little. More times than not, when you have Cousins & Horford I'd go with:

Howard
Turkoglu
Salmons
Matthews/Fernandez/Williams
B-Diddy

Why??


Pick and roll with Howard and Turkoglu.  A rookie big man defensively raw will get killed in the playoffs.  Jamison then pulls Hortford away from helping. 

[KCattheStripe]

Brandon Roy is the 3rd or maybe 4th (depending on your feelings with Joe Johnson) best SG in the NBA

WESLEY MATTHEWS!!!!!!!!!

[celticpride07]

vote lakers! Sacramento might have the rebounding advantage but the lakers will outscore them!..sorry for inactivity been a busy first week of back at college.

[mgent]

There is absolutely no way Utah beats the Clippers in real life.  They are the softest team in the league.  Not enough muscle and not enough hustle.  We are simply going to beat them with athleticism.

Offense:
My back-court is gonna TEAR YOU UP.  Billups and Richardson are gonna go for 25+ points each easy.  They will pretty much be able to score at will so I am not worried.  Gallinari isn't a great defender either.  When I bring in Yi, he and KG will draw Yao and Pau out of the paint.  Utah, who do you have to hit clutch shots?  Utah, who do you have to be a defensive stopper?  Utah, how do you possibly expect to keep up with us?  We are gonna run every chance possible.

Defense:
Our defense is clearly superior.  Utah doesn't have enough talent on the wings and no one who can really create their own shot.  They're going to have to rely on throwing it down low.  Between KG and Big Ben it will be harder than they think.  As far as rebounding, my advantage at the 1, 2, and 3 makes up for their slight advantage at the 4 and 5.  And in H2H matches Ben Wallace has actually out-rebounded Yao (how about that big fella).  Everybody already knows defense wins championships, and Utah has no chance.

I think it comes down to Utah having the better bigger guys, and LA having the better back-court.  The difference is my front-court's defense is vastly superior to your perimeter D.

[The Walker Wiggle]

Howard
Turkoglu
Salmons
Matthews/Fernandez/Williams
B-Diddy

Then I continue to cover Turkoglu with Wallace (14.7 TR%) vs (8.9 TR%), cover Salmons with Kleiza or Bell (a wash), and consider it a win - Phoenix's third best player is seeing limited minutes, the ball dominating trio of Davis, Turkoglu and Salmons are bogging down the offense and taking away possessions from Dwight Howard, and Turk is gassed when it comes time to run the offense for the point guard-less second unit.

Also, point of order Holiday averaged 5.5 assists in 32 minutes, over 30 starts post All-Star break. He would have finished in the top 20 in apg, just ahead of Andre Miller. He's not a top 10 point guard. But some people are underestimating his court vision. I don't see any reason he won't continue to post similar numbers in 2010. Not for nothing that he led the Summer League in assists (and scoring).

[KCattheStripe]

 When I bring in Yi, he and KG will draw Yao and Pau out of the paint.  Utah, who do you have to hit clutch shots?  

This is where you lose me. No sentence bragging about your team should begin " When I bring in Yi". Also, it's not like PAu had a difficult time guarding KG.

[Roy H.]

For Sacramento:

Stephen Curry/Brandon Roy are head and shoulders above Rose/Garcia.

Derrick Rose is a very good point guard, but he's primarily a scorer, with limited defense and not spectacular passing. Fransico Garcia is a player in the NBA, but a borderline starter on the Kings, let alone a team with title aspirations.

Brandon Roy is the 3rd or maybe 4th (depending on your feelings with Joe Johnson) best SG in the NBA, and Stephen Curry was arguably the best pure point guard of this years' stacked at that position rookie class.

What are you expectations between those matchups with your team, without using the names Boozer, Randolph, or Lewis.

Should I even respond, with your first sentence presented as a fact?

Derrick Rose has been horribly underrated by many in this draft process.  Look what he's done in the playoffs the past two years against some of the best defenses in recent NBA history:  20/6/6/49% against the Celtics (almost leading Chicago to an upset), and 27/3/7/46% against Cleveland.  He did that basically without having a second option on offense, and no good offensive big men, period.

Roe absolutely abused Rajon Rondo through parts of the Chicago series.  His assist numbers are low, but again, who should he be passing to?  Rose has shown great vision and instincts, but his team's talent level has stunk.  It's hard to pick up assists when your team has no post players and no outside shooters.  That will all change this year, both in Sacramento and Chicago; both of those teams have given Rose elite post talent, and outside shooting, as well.  Also, Rose is on his way to becoming one of the better PG defenders in the NBA.

You think Steph Curry trumps Rose, when Curry was putting up lesser numbers on a team that ranked #1 in pace?  (i.e., stat inflation, folks.)  I like Curry, but he's become wildly overrated by some.  He's a decent distributing, great shooting PG who has struggled in running an offense and who played very little defense last year.  I know we all root for the underdog, but Rose would kill him. 

As for Garcia/Lee, these are role players matched up against LA's best player, so I wouldn't expect them to come out ahead.  What they can do, however, is slow Roy down.  Both Lee and Garcia are very good defensive players who will make Roy work for his points.  Additionally, Garcia has the size to post Roy up on the offensive end, which will hopefully tire out Roy.

I think Roy will probably be LA's leading scorer on a nightly basis, and I'd expect him right around his regular season averages for production.  However, I think Curry will be limited somewhat.

The fact that my perceived "weakness" matches up fairly well with LA's unquestioned strength is a good sign.  There's no way LA can stop the Kings' offense, and the Lakers' offense isn't good enough to exploit any perceived defensive lapses from my big men (although I'd point out that only one of my starters is a below-average defender.)

[mgent]

 When I bring in Yi, he and KG will draw Yao and Pau out of the paint.  Utah, who do you have to hit clutch shots?  

This is where you lose me. No sentence bragging about your team should begin " When I bring in Yi". Also, it's not like PAu had a difficult time guarding KG.

What are you talking about?  I can't state that Yi and KG space the court?

I don't really understand all the Yi hate.  He's a very promising young player.

[Roy H.]

vote lakers! Sacramento might have the rebounding advantage but the lakers will outscore them!..sorry for inactivity been a busy first week of back at college.

Sacramento crushes LA on the boards and in the post.  In terms of trying to outscore the Kings, they have Boozer (highest FG% in the league among all forwards), Randolph (All-Star; 20-10 production), Rose (a young superstar), Rashard Lewis (a recent all-star with Finals experience), and Richard Jefferson (another elite scorer coming off a poor year).  Gooden is a very good scorer, Lee and Garcia can score when they're asked and are very good complementary parts, etc.

Sacramento probably has the best offense and the best rebounding in the CB-NBA.  They're average to slightly above-average defensively, which some seem to have a big issue with, but they're not a team that will be easily outscored.

[KCattheStripe]

 When I bring in Yi, he and KG will draw Yao and Pau out of the paint.  Utah, who do you have to hit clutch shots?  

This is where you lose me. No sentence bragging about your team should begin " When I bring in Yi". Also, it's not like PAu had a difficult time guarding KG.

What are you talking about?  I can't state that Yi and KG space the court?

I don't really understand all the Yi hate.  He's a very promising young player.

What Yi gives you in spacing he kills you in his inability to guard or rebound with either of Utah's main bigs.

[Who]

Lineup One

Phoenix: Baron, Wes, Salmons, Jamison, Dwight
New Orleans: Jrue, Eric, Gerald, Horford, Cousins

I think the Suns have a matchup advantage at the point and a very large advantage at center. The Hornets have matchup advantages at the other three positions. Fairly even contest.

Lineup Two

Phoenix: Baron, Rudy, Wes, Hedo, Dwight
New Orleans: Jrue, Eric, Gerald, Horford, Cousins

I think the Suns have matchup advantages at the one, four and five and are outplaying the Hornets by a good margin.

Lineup Three

Phoenix: Baron, Rudy, Wes/Salmons, Hedo, Dwight
New Orleans: Jrue, Eric, Raja/Kleiza, Gerald, Horford

The Suns maintain their advantages at the point and at center. New Orleans continues to have a mismatch at the two and creates a matchup advantage at the four with Gerald Wallace versus Hedo.

A Wes vs Raja matchup is neutral. A Wes vs Kleiza matchup is in NO's favour. If Salmons plays, Hedo's offensive contributions shrink even more and G-Wallace's advantage grows. Salmons would have an advantage against Kleiza with his quickness / slashing but would be kept in check fairly well by Raja Bell (small advantage PHO).

The Suns continue to outplay the Hornets.

Bench

T-Will vs Udrih -- Could be an advantage for NO but I'm going to give Williams the benefit of the doubt and assume that he can defend Udrih well enough. I'm not that concerned about his offense as a PG when alongside Hedo + Rudy. Neutral.

Rudy vs Raja -- neutral.
Hedo vs Kleiza -- advantage Phoenix
Monroe vs McDyess -- going back on forth on this one. Either neutral or advantage Phoenix.

E.Davis vs Najera -- advantage Phoenix
E.Davis vs Mosgov -- when head to head, advantage NO. In general, since they're playing different positions, neutral.

Conclusions

I am still leaning towards the Suns but I think New Orleans will give them a hell of a battle.

A hard fought six game series, Suns win 4-2.

I haven't fully decided yet ... but that's the way I am leaning.