CB Draft '10 Playoffs First Round Eastern Conference

[nickagneta]

Also what/who is not to like on the Hawks?

We probably have one of the strongest chemistry teams, with all good character and likeable guys who are dialed into the team game.

Not to mention Kevin Durant

Did you watch the World Championship?
Durant takes golden path to stardom

This kid is a star and arguably the best offensive player in the game.

Love Durant

[Kwhit10]

Unfortunately I am at a conference in beautiful Cleveland all day, so my posts will be limited. I will do my best to get back and vote, though my arguments may be short and/or just a link to whatever nice things Who has said about my team. Good luck to everyone, especially my colleague in Atlanta.

Good luck to you too ChampKind.  

[Roy H.]

Since a lot of these teams have injured players, here's how I'm approaching that: 

For teams with injury concerns, if voters had confidence in them to win their division or earn a top-four seed, I'm assuming their players are healthy.  That means I'm looking at a reasonably healthy and productive Oden, K. Martin, Bynum, and Yao.

It may not make sense, but I've got to think that without a healthy Oden or Bynum, those teams don't make the playoffs, or at least place as high as they did.  Therefore, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, moreso than I necessarily did in regular season voting.  Guys who came back late may still have some rust (i.e., Perkins, if he'd made the playoffs), but I anticipate that most injured guys on playoff teams will make a go of it.

[indeedproceed]

The Washington Boxers are in the Eastern Conference playoffs and unlike most of the other contenders in the East we don't have that huge main superstar that our team revolves around like a Kobe or Lebron or Dirk or Amare or Johnson or Durant or Wade(yes each of those 7 have a team of their own and all are in the Eastern Conference playoffs). What we do have is a great team defense and quality 7 deep with some great young talent thereafter.

So our strategy until we lose is going to be essentially the same. Shut down everyone else on any team we face except the big gun, defend the big gun as best as we can one on one and make that player try to beat five players by themselves. This strategy has worked for the Celtics extremely successfully over the last three years and while I am not comparing the defensive abilities of the Boxers to the Celtics, I do believe that with the personnel we have it is a defensive strategy we can execute very well.

So the Boxers will have Manu and Bayless guard Wade one on one and then have the rest of the team play tough deny pressure defense on the Knicks PGs and SFs and pack it in on Oden and Martin underneath trying to force Wade to beat the Boxers from outside.

On the offensive end the strategy will be very simple, lots of dribble penetration, lots of pick and roll for Scola going to the basket and lots of throwing it into Bynum. The reason is simple. Greg Oden is simply one of the most foul prone players in the NBA and after Oden there just isn't anyone who in a seven game series can give the Knicks the quality inside minutes they will need to beat the Boxers

Question: Do you think Bynum and Scola can score on Oden and Martin?

In the limited times they've played each other, they've basically both played each other into stinking. Bynum averages 8ppg and 6rebounds to Oden's 7 and 5, respectively.

Kenyon Martin scores 10.5ppg to Scola's 10, and scola out-rebounds martin 9 to 7.

If your advantage is in the paint, it doesn't seem like it is going to be enough to tip the scales in terms of Wade's edge over Manu. How do you address that?

[StartOrien]

Since a lot of these teams have injured players, here's how I'm approaching that: 

For teams with injury concerns, if voters had confidence in them to win their division or earn a top-four seed, I'm assuming their players are healthy.  That means I'm looking at a reasonably healthy and productive Oden, K. Martin, Bynum, and Yao.

It may not make sense, but I've got to think that without a healthy Oden or Bynum, those teams don't make the playoffs, or at least place as high as they did.  Therefore, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, moreso than I necessarily did in regular season voting.  Guys who came back late may still have some rust (i.e., Perkins, if he'd made the playoffs), but I anticipate that most injured guys on playoff teams will make a go of it.

I disagree. You can keep in account that these teams started off really well and then would fade w/o their superstar like the 2009 superstar, or you could think that they'd perform well enough to have an OK seed btu aren't ready to contend in the playoffs without a main cog.

[Who]

Since a lot of these teams have injured players, here's how I'm approaching that: 

For teams with injury concerns, if voters had confidence in them to win their division or earn a top-four seed, I'm assuming their players are healthy.  That means I'm looking at a reasonably healthy and productive Oden, K. Martin, Bynum, and Yao.

It may not make sense, but I've got to think that without a healthy Oden or Bynum, those teams don't make the playoffs, or at least place as high as they did.  Therefore, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, moreso than I necessarily did in regular season voting.  Guys who came back late may still have some rust (i.e., Perkins, if he'd made the playoffs), but I anticipate that most injured guys on playoff teams will make a go of it.

I'm treating Oden, Bynum and Yao as fully healthy ... but I haven't decided on Kenyon Martin.

Leaning towards Kenyon being fairly healthy and playing at a decent level but not his top form.

Kenyon Martin hasn't recovered well or quickly from injuries in the past. I'm thinking his performance will be slowed down all season from his latest serious injury.

[indeedproceed]

Since a lot of these teams have injured players, here's how I'm approaching that: 

For teams with injury concerns, if voters had confidence in them to win their division or earn a top-four seed, I'm assuming their players are healthy.  That means I'm looking at a reasonably healthy and productive Oden, K. Martin, Bynum, and Yao.

It may not make sense, but I've got to think that without a healthy Oden or Bynum, those teams don't make the playoffs, or at least place as high as they did.  Therefore, I'm giving them the benefit of the doubt, moreso than I necessarily did in regular season voting.  Guys who came back late may still have some rust (i.e., Perkins, if he'd made the playoffs), but I anticipate that most injured guys on playoff teams will make a go of it.

I disagree. You can keep in account that these teams started off really well and then would fade w/o their superstar like the 2009 superstar, or you could think that they'd perform well enough to have an OK seed btu aren't ready to contend in the playoffs without a main cog.

Are you calling that a "Bogut Season"?

[CB Draft Voting]

Please use the following format for your ballot.

*Your Name Here*
Chicago/Seattle
Milwaukee/Indiana
Orlando/Atlanta
New York/Washington

Please use the team names I have typed above.

If you use a shortened name like "Sac" instead of Sacramento" I have to manually input your ballot. I'm using vlookup's based on the string "Sacramento".

Thanks!

[nickagneta]

The Washington Boxers are in the Eastern Conference playoffs and unlike most of the other contenders in the East we don't have that huge main superstar that our team revolves around like a Kobe or Lebron or Dirk or Amare or Johnson or Durant or Wade(yes each of those 7 have a team of their own and all are in the Eastern Conference playoffs). What we do have is a great team defense and quality 7 deep with some great young talent thereafter.

So our strategy until we lose is going to be essentially the same. Shut down everyone else on any team we face except the big gun, defend the big gun as best as we can one on one and make that player try to beat five players by themselves. This strategy has worked for the Celtics extremely successfully over the last three years and while I am not comparing the defensive abilities of the Boxers to the Celtics, I do believe that with the personnel we have it is a defensive strategy we can execute very well.

So the Boxers will have Manu and Bayless guard Wade one on one and then have the rest of the team play tough deny pressure defense on the Knicks PGs and SFs and pack it in on Oden and Martin underneath trying to force Wade to beat the Boxers from outside.

On the offensive end the strategy will be very simple, lots of dribble penetration, lots of pick and roll for Scola going to the basket and lots of throwing it into Bynum. The reason is simple. Greg Oden is simply one of the most foul prone players in the NBA and after Oden there just isn't anyone who in a seven game series can give the Knicks the quality inside minutes they will need to beat the Boxers

Question: Do you think Bynum and Scola can score on Oden and Martin?

In the limited times they've played each other, they've basically both played each other into stinking. Bynum averages 8ppg and 6rebounds to Oden's 7 and 5, respectively.

Kenyon Martin scores 10.5ppg to Scola's 10, and scola out-rebounds martin 9 to 7.

If your advantage is in the paint, it doesn't seem like it is going to be enough to tip the scales in terms of Wade's edge over Manu. How do you address that?

First, I feel yours stats regarding the Bynum versus Oden matchup are somewhat irrelevant. The have played each other three whole times and in one of those games Oden played a whopping 12 minutes. The most recent of those matchups is from April of 2009. I said somewhat irrelevant because those numbers do prove my point regarding Oden. In 70 minutes of play versus Bynum, Oden picked up 11 fouls. As long as the Boxers pound it inside through dribble penetration or pass for inside moves, Oden will get in foul trouble, average about 20 MPG and the Knicks will need to rely on the relic Kurt Thomas.

Regarding the Scola-Martin matchup they played ten games against each other, 8 of those games being in Scola's first two years in the league when he played a much less pronounced role in the offense. Last year the numbers in this matchup were a lot more in line with how I would suspect the matchup to go now that Scola has taken the next step up in his career and Martin is starting to show signs of aging and multiple severe injuries:

Scola 14.5 PPG, 9.5 RPG, 52.3% FG%
Martin 10.5 PPG, 10 RPG, 45.4% FG%

Given Scola's recent showing in the world's and Martin's always slow to recover abilities, those numbers might even skew more in Scola's favor.

But the real strategy is to remove Oden defensively from the game with inside offensive play. I never said the Boxers advantage was in the paint. What I want to do is create an advantage in the paint by removing Oden. Then once the trio of Scola, Bynum, and Haslem are playing Thomas, Martin and Hill then the Boxers will have a clear advantage and exploit it unmercifully.

[indeedproceed]

That's a good explanation, although I do think you're underrating Oden pretty hard as a player, but that's an opinion thing I guess.

I think Washington takes this series. I do think it will go at least 6 games, but I think Washington takes it.

[nickagneta]

That's a good explanation, although I do think you're underrating Oden pretty hard as a player, but that's an opinion thing I guess.

I think Washington takes this series. I do think it will go at least 6 games, but I think Washington takes it.

I actually am giving a ton of respect to Oden. If healthy(and I think he just might be the biggest health question mark in this game because of his three year history of missing two entire years) he is a defensive force. But he is just soooooooooo foul prone. Unfortunately, because of his injuries, he's basically going to be entering his 2nd year of play next year. I don't think he has nearly enough experience learning to control his urges to try to block everything and muscle everyone and he fouls a lot. The Boxers plan is to exploit that and I see it as the Knicks biggest weakness.

[nickagneta]

It's quite in the East while the Western conference GMs are getting arguing it out.

BTW, when does voting end?

[Fafnir]

It's quite in the East while the Western conference GMs are getting arguing it out.

BTW, when does voting end?

Tonight at midnight eastern time.

[indeedproceed]

That's a good explanation, although I do think you're underrating Oden pretty hard as a player, but that's an opinion thing I guess.

I think Washington takes this series. I do think it will go at least 6 games, but I think Washington takes it.

I actually am giving a ton of respect to Oden. If healthy(and I think he just might be the biggest health question mark in this game because of his three year history of missing two entire years) he is a defensive force. But he is just soooooooooo foul prone. Unfortunately, because of his injuries, he's basically going to be entering his 2nd year of play next year. I don't think he has nearly enough experience learning to control his urges to try to block everything and muscle everyone and he fouls a lot. The Boxers plan is to exploit that and I see it as the Knicks biggest weakness.

I disagree.

Look at this...its something I probably invested too much time in just to be right about something that doesn't change how I view the series at all, but all the same...look at it.



The bottom axis is years in the league, the side axis is personal fouls per minute during that season.

Even if you effectively treat this as Oden's third year in the league, if his career path follows anything like Bynum or Perkins, Oden should drop to a pf/min rate that should get him approximately 4.0 (like seriously, almost 4.0 pf's) after 30 minutes or so.

30 minutes and 4 fouls is not the best of circumstances, but it does not handicap him like you imply it would. He'll still sit some time because of his foul trouble, but since foul frequency is one thing that most definitely goes down for big men after a few years in the league, I don't think that's going to be such a limiting factor here for NYK.

[indeedproceed]

Has anyone voted yet? Anyone want to post it so we can discuss it?

This is boring me. I might actually start to do real work here.