Modus Operandi
When I took over the team midway through the second round I was hoping that one of three or so remaining available players would drop and that I would be able to create a contender. They didn’t happen so I moved onto to the next goal of creating a team that can contend for a title sometime in the future. And I feel like I achieved that.
In the immediate future, I see this squad as a very good regular season team but one that isn't built for playoff success (yet).
Roster
Starters- PG - Chris Paul + Kyle Lowry + Jannero Pargo
- SG - Kevin Martin + Martell Webster
- SF - Nicolas Batum + Martell Webster + Damion James
- PF - Anthony Randolph + Al-Farouq Aminu + Joey Dorsey
- C - Tiago Splitter + Hasheem Thabeet + DeSagana Diop
OffenseOver the last few years, Chris Paul has been responsible for about 45%-50% of the Hornets offense between his scoring and passing. If you measured by time spent on the ball in reality it would be more than that. Similarly, he’ll have a monster role here too. The hub of nearly everything that happens.
Kevin Martin will be the second option. I expect him to produce numbers similar to his time in Houston while playing alongside Chris Paul. A 20-22ppg threat on 60% TS%.
Tiago Splitter and Anthony Randolph will be the third and fourth options. Splitter is also a highly efficient player much like Chris Paul and Kevin Martin. Together they’ll help form one of the more efficient regular season offenses. Meanwhile, we expect Anthony Randolph to be a 15ppg type threat while being slightly below average efficiency wise. I'll talk a bit more about them below.
The final member who will be responsible for creating some offense will be Kyle Lowry. When Paul is off the court he'll take over the point and do some work too. The rest of the supporting cast will look to play off of those creative players. If Batum shows enough improvement he might get some additional responsibilities too.
There are two other notable traits to this squad's offensive play and that's transition offense + ability to get to the free throw line. Both of these traits will help create easy baskets.
Kevin Martin led the league in made FTs two years ago + Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry are both good at getting to the FT line + Anthony Randolph shows signs of becoming a foul drawing machine and Tiago Splitter is good at drawing fouls too.
In terms of transition, given our coaching staff and personnel, I believe we'll be able to get out in transition often and effectively. We have above average quickness at every position, solid rebounding and should be good at creating turnovers (PGs, Thabeet, Randolph, Aminu).
The Scott Skiles EffectI believe that area where Head Coach's can have their biggest impact is on the defensive side of the ball. Specifically with their team defense and Scott Skiles does this extremely well.
When Skiles took over the Suns, Phoenix improved from 19th to 3rd in defensive efficiency. They remained in the top five the next season and where likely in the top ten (too lazy to work out the numbers) until Skiles was fired.
When Skiles took over the Bulls, they were a poor defensive club (21st def eff) and improved to an average unit after Skiles took over early in the season. They improved further to top three defensive unit in the years after that.
In Milwaukee, the Bucks were ranked 30th in defensive efficiency when Skiles took over and were ranked in 5th place until Bogut got injured the following season + ranked in the top five last season.
Obviously, that is not all Scott Skiles, there were some personnel changes which aided in the improvement too but it is fair to say that Skiles has a huge impact on the defensive end of the floor for his teams. He has never had a below average defensive team and as long as he has a modicum of defensive talent I don't think he ever will.
Scott Skiles also did an excellent job of developing young big men (Bogut, Tyson) and helping them become marquee defenders.
Skiles has an excellent understanding of the matchup game + provides good discipline + demands defensive effort from his players and refuses to play them if he doesn't get that effort + shows great willingness to play young defensive players.
DefenseThe foundation of the team defensively
- Scott Skiles - see above
- Guards - Chris Paul and Kyle Lowry are good defensive guards
- Wings - Nicolas Batum and Martell Webster are very strong defensive wings. Solid backups with D.James and Aminu too.
- Big men - Splitter will be the anchor. An intelligent defender with a very good understanding of positioning and defensive rotations. Thabeet will be a shot blocker off the bench. Randolph (more below) and Aminu are both long active PFs. Dorsey and Diop provide depth.
Kevin Martin's Defense Kevin Martin has been a very poor defender for the last 3-4 years now. Prior to that, his first two seasons, Martin was an above average defensive player who only got on the floor because of his defensive ability + was being mentioned as Doug Christie's eventual successor in that stopper role. Kevin Martin has good size at 6-7 and good quickness but lacks physical strength.
I expect Martin to become a slightly above average defender next season while playing for the Rockets and I think he can do likewise here with the Warriors (by end of season).
Kevin Martin is the only suspect defender on the wing. He'll be kept on the lesser offensive threat at all times with Batum and/or Webster doing the heavy lifting.
I wanted Martell Webster in particular ... to help out at shooting guard. I wanted to have someone with enough quickness to defend SGs plus enough size/strength to defend the bigger two guards like Joe Johnson, Stephen Jackson and Kobe Bryant. I also wanted a SG who was a solid rebounder to help provide further protection for Kevin Martin. So, I view Webster as a nice complement to Martin's skill set.
As for Kevin Martin's rebounding, it has been very poor for the last two seasons (5.5% Reb rate). Prior to that it was decent (7 to 7.5%). I have no idea whether he can get back to that or if I'm stuck with a poor rebounder here.
Team DefenseThe squad has a couple of characteristics
- Tall, long quick agile wings -- Batum, Webster, K.Martin, D.James,
- Quick long fours -- Anthony Randolph, Aminu -- who can play top pick and roll defense and switch onto other positions ably.
- Defensive anchor -- Splitter + Thabeet
- Active PGs -- Lowry + Paul -- who are short and stocky but very active/disruptive in the passing lane.
I think those qualities can help force opponents to shoot over length (lowering opponent FG%) + can force a good number of turnovers.
In this first season, I would expect this squad to be slightly above average defensively (13th to 15th place) but to go on and become one of the top defensive teams in the league as Thabeet + Randolph improve.
Warning: Only read further if you are interested in my thoughts on the specific players otherwise it'll be a waste of time. The previous sections give a more than adequate run down on the team. The Road To Improvement
Anthony RandolphAnthony Randolph will define the future of this team. I think he is a near certainty to become an All-Star caliber player and he has a good shot at becoming a top 10-15 player in this league.
Physically, A.Randolph is off the charts. He has one of the quickest and most explosive first steps in the league relative to his position. He also has exceptional quickness (end to end + lateral quickness + vertical quickness), balance and agility.
He has great size at the four at 6-11 with a 7-3 wingspan. Randolph's combination of quickness and size will help him create a physical advantage against most opponents. Randolph was only 195lbs when he entered the NBA two years ago but he has bulked up to 235lbs (last May) since then. I would expect him to take some time, probably a year, to get fully comfortable with his new physique.
In terms of development, in real life, I am expecting Anthony Randolph to be good for a 18 and 10 next season but to produce them in a way that doesn't translate to wins.
Like most young players, he is still heavily on focused on the offensive side of the ball in order to try and establish himself. Playing for Don Nelson and now Mike D'Antoni has only furthered that mindset. The scoring will be inefficient 52-53% TS% + turnovers) and he is currently a poor to very poor defender so he'll be giving up a fair bit on the other end of the court. His ability to create extra possessions (rebounding, steals, blocks, deflections) will help offset that some but overall he'll be a fairly mediocre player.
By his second year (2011-12), the end of it, I would expect Randolph to become an average defender + improve his efficiency to an average level. That will allow him to have a good impact out there for his team. The year after (2012-13), I expect Randolph to become a good-to-very good defender and post a slightly above average scoring efficiency number and to be a bona-fide star. Whether he improves further from there defensively or not I don't know.
Now, back to this fantasy game, on this squad I think Anthony Randolph's projected improvement will reverse. Largely due to Scott Skiles + Chris Paul + a reduced role offensively. I think this will force his defensive improvement to come quicker and for his offensive game to come later. I am expecting Randolph to become a mediocre defender by year's end + to post an average to slightly above average TS% (54-55%) right away. So more of a positive impact on winning right away but further away from establishing himself as a top go-to scorer.
Last season, Randolph averaged 11.6ppg, 6.5rpg, 1.5bpg and 0.8spg in only 22.7 minutes. The combination of blocks, steals and charges drawn ranked in the top 20 in the NBA despite playing only 22-23 minutes. As his minutes increase to 30-32 minutes and then to 35-38 minutes, I fully expect him to rank amongst the league leaders in this category. Anthony Randolph is also a strong rebounder posting rebounding rates of 17.5% and 16% during his first two years in the league which will allow him to create even more possessions for his team.
Another interesting development in Randolph is his improved ability to draw fouls. In terms of fouls per shot attempt, Randolph improved from 11.7% to 16.9% from his rookie to sophomore campaign. I expect this to continue to improve and for Randolph to become one of the best big man in the league at drawing fouls in large part due to his incredible quickness on his face up game (similar to how Chris Bosh gets to the line).
Hasheem ThabeetLike I have said in the past, I don't think Thabeet has the potential to become a Dikembe Mutomobo like player. He isn't comfortable enough with the physical side of the game and isn't a dominant enough rebounder. I think his potential is somewhere in the Sam Dalembert to Tyson Chandler range. The team would be happy with him becoming a Dalembert level player and ecstatic with a Tyson Chandler level impact.
In terms of production, Thabeet is a double double level player (given minutes, about 34-35mpg) who will shoot 60-65% (TS%) from the floor while adding in 2.5 to 3.5 blocked shots a night.
In terms of current ability, we regard him as a good defender + good rebounder + effective garbage man and pick and roll player offensively. Chris Paul is going to have a lot of fun throwing lob passes to Thabeet.
I am expecting him to serve as the backup center for another season and then take over the starting job in 12 months time with Splitter moving in as the team's primary backup big man. Splitter will continue to play about 30 minutes a night as a reserve and will be the go-to option for the second unit.
Tiago Splitter
Tiago Splitter has been the best big man in Europe for a couple of years now. He is 25 years old and has been playing pro ball in the ACB for almost 9 years now. He is a shade under seven feet with a 7-2 wingspan and weighs about 240lbs.
Tiago Splitter is a highly skilled offensive player with a quality low post game, good in pick and rolls, is a good finisher around the rim, runs the court the well and is a very good passer (from low post and mid to high post) and decision maker. He has been posting TS% marks in the 60% range for several years now in the ACB. He is also very good at getting to the free throw line (5.5 FTAs per 8.9 FGAs).
Defensively, Splitter is a good position defender who does a very good job of making himself tall and forcing the opponent to shoot over him. He also has good mobility and defends the pick and roll well and has very active hands. Gets a good number of deflections for a big man. On the glass, Splitter will be somewhere between a slightly below average but serviceable rebounder and an average rebounder.
Like Luis Scola and Marc Gasol who came before him, Tiago Splitter is ready to make an impact right away in the NBA. I am expecting him to play somewhere in the 28-31 minute range with Thabeet playing the rest of the minutes at center.
The BenchKyle LowryI thought Kyle Lowry was one of the best bench players in the NBA last season. He came in and turned around a huge number of games last season for the Rockets. Wayne Winston had some statistic that described that well but I can't find it. Here are some of his other notable stats.
Lowry was second on the team in Roland Rating at +2.5, and was a component of the team’s most efficient 5-man offensive unit.
While his impact on the Rockets is patently obvious, not enough has been made of just how favorably his production compares with his league-wide peers.
Lowry is 5th in the league among all point guards in FTA’s per-40 minutes.He’s 2nd among all point guards in total rebounding rate per-40 minutes and 1st among all point guards in offensive rebounding rate per-40 minutes.
Lowry is 1st among all pg’s in charges drawn per-40 minutes.
He’s 1st among all pg’s in And1% (the percentage of a player’s field goal attempts resulting in an And-1) per-40 minutes and 1st among all pg’s in FTA/FGA (ratio of free throw attempts to field goal attempts) per-40 minutes.
Lowry is 11th in the league among all point guards in overall assists per-40 minutes and 12th in assists at the rim per-40 minutes.
Martell WebsterI regard Martell Webster as an elite role player as a shooting guard and a very good role player as a small forward.
At 6-8, 220lbs, with very good quickness and good length and quality defensive play ... Martell Webster is able to cover a large number of opponent wings. He has enough size, strength, length and quickness to bother most players and his size is particularly cumbersome to opponent shooting guards (like Kobe Bryant and his post game).
On the boards, he is a good rebounder for a two guard but a poor one for a small forward. Offensively, Webster has a nice catch and shoot game + stand still shooter + good cutter + excellent finisher in transition. I think that mix suits our team. He still needs to improve his efficiency but hopefully by playing with C.Paul he'll take a larger proportion of three point attempts and boost it that way.
Al-Farouq AminuReminds me a lot of Andrei Kirileno with his length and activity defensively as an undersized power forward. Showed good rebounding skills in college. Has a dangerous face up game against power forwards.
Aminu doesn't have the offensive game to play the small forward position on this roster and shouldn't be playing extended minutes there on any team really. His lack of shooting ability and weak perimeter + shot creation skills relative to quicker wing defenders makes him a liability there. Unfortunately for Aminu that is exactly where the Clippers plan on playing him next season.
Probably two years away from being a good SF but capable of making an impact as an undersized power forward right away. A superior version than what Thaddeus Young gave Philadelphia as a rookie four. Aminu can defend and rebound the small forward position so if the squad is caught for numbers he can fill in there too.
Jannero PargoJannero Pargo is a solid third string center. He is a spark plug who loves to come in and hoist up shot attempts. Scott Skiles used him very well in this role in Chicago and Pargo has had some success playing behind Chris Paul in the past too.
There was a study on how inefficient offensive players can sometimes increase their teammate's efficiency. Mainly limited role players who are stand still shooter types who are far more efficient alongside a high volume inefficient scorer because they don't have to create their own shots. And that if you have a limited offensive team, that will help the supporting cast. So even if your inefficient shot happy guard isn't great individually it is still possible for him to have a solid offensive impact.
With Pargo's playmaking + my roster construction ... in the horrible case of a Chris Paul injury ... I think he can come in and do a good job in that regard. Well, for a third string PG. Be a positive influence.
Damion JamesStrong rebounder and defender. Good athlete. Solid scorer. A combo forward, an undersized four or a power three. Can play physical basketball.
On nights where my team needs more physical play on the wing or more rebounding on the wing, D.James will slide into the rotation and take some of Martell's minutes.
The Bash BrothersMy regular big man rotation lacks muscle so I wanted to add third stringers with a beefy physical profile who could rebound well and play quality defense. Enter Joey Dorsey and Hasheem Thabeet.
Topic: 2010 CB Draft: Pacific Division Press Conferences (Read 100217 times)