Is Rondo really getting better?

[Quinn]

Let me start off by saying I'm in the middle of Rondo-mania. I think the kid's fantastic, and I think he's the most fun person to watch in the NBA.

But has Rondo really gotten much better from the 08-09 campaign to the 09-10 season? Take a look at his per36 stats, the only ones that really matter.


points - went up half a point from 13.0 to 13.5. not much change

assists - went from 9.0-9.6. this is his greatest improvement in all of his numbers

rebounds - went down from 5.7-4.4.

His personal fouls went down from 2.6-2.4/36, but his turnovers went up by .2.

His field goal percentage was roughly the same, going from 50.5%-50.8%


Now these numbers are all fantastic, I'd just say that he really didn't improve as much as the media hype made it seem. He was roughly the same player in both seasons, and stepped up his game in the playoffs both seasons too.

Just something to think about

Oh and his FT% dropped from 64.2%-62.1%

[ballin]

Good points.

Personally, I think that that certain aspects of his play improved, such as his passing and his shooting range. On the other hand, as his shooting touch got a little better from outside, he starting taking worse shots. Funny how that works. Fact of the matter is, he STILL shouldn't consider taking a jumper unless it's at the end of the shot-clock. But really, shot selection is something that can be easily fixed, and it's a sign that he's growing more and more confident with his jumper, which is a good thing.

His ppg is a non-issue to me... after all, he's on a team with multiple former all-stars! He just needs to worry about setting them up with assists, which he did an amazing job of. The dip in rebounding I think can be attributed to an increased emphasis by the coaching staff on running back to set up the defense (on a side note, I disagree a lot with this way of running a team. no rebounds no championships, as they say). It's funny, I remember Doc at times yelling at Rondo to get back on defense more AFTER he snags yet another offensive rebound. But yeah, the dip in rebounding most certainly wasn't due to a decreased ability to rebound, it was due simply to a decreased emphasis on doing so.

The only discouraging aspect was the dip in free throw %. Frankly, going DOWN from 64% is just kinda pathetic. He HAS to get better at that considering the amount he's being paid. I feel like I can say that without trepidation. When I go over to the court or to the gym and shoot around, just for kicks I'll shoot 10 free throws to see how I do. On my WORST days I'll shoot 6/10, which is practically Rondo's average. For god's sake, I'm only an average shooter in the pickup games I play, and I can still outperform what Rondo gets paid to do as far as free throw shooting is concerned (although to be realistic, I'm not shooting free throws after getting hacked and running up and down a court for 40 minutes. still, that's why he's a professional athlete and I'm not)

Ok so that last paragraph was a bit of a rant, but to sum it all up I think overall Rondo's game has improved, but maybe not as dramatically as some would say.

[Chris]

Stats are deceiving.  Particularly pace stats, such as per-36 minutes.  Last year, Rondo clearly improved in 2 major areas...floor leadership, and consistency.  He took the next step to leading the team, and controlling the tempo consistently. 

Rondos biggest weaknesses (other than shooting) before last year were that he was incredibly inconsistent, and he still struggled at times knowing when to take over and when to defer.  Neither of those are easily measured by stats (in fact, inconsistency ussually skews stats like ones you used), but to the naked eye, they clearly improved dramatically.

Rondo still has a long ways to go, but I don't think there is any question that his learning curve has remained very steep.

[Snakehead]

Perhaps his numbers didn't change but watching the games he has become a true PG, smarter with his offense and defense, and leader of the team.  Where before it was The Big Three and Rondo, now Rondo is the team MVP and you could tell watching last year and especially in the playoffs.

That was his big show of how much better he has gotten.  In the Playoffs he made a ton of big plays, that is something you just have to see.

Maybe his stats aren't much improved but it was really him stepping up.  The Celtics have become his team.

[truthteller]

I'm not worried about his numbers.  Those will continue to improve as Rajon matures and works on his game.  His free throws WILL improve.  His jumper WILL improve.  He is just too talented for me to think they wont.  For some reason, I see a lot of Chauncy Billups in him.  Just give him some time, and experience, and he'll be one of the best for a loooong time.

What's even more important to me is Rondo's leadership ability.  He improved a lot character-wise last season.  To be able to take charge on a team that includes NBA royalty is impressive; and, he is still very young.  Character and chemistry count for a lot in the NBA and he is going to be a real leader.

In two years, when it is truly  Rondo's team, we will not be questioning his stats. He will be what we have been waiting for.

[action781]

Don't forget the small spike in steals.  I know steals are overrated as a means of judging defense, but I feel like Rondo has this momentum-shifting way about his steals.  Maybe I'm just a homer

[BballTim]

  It's hard to judge his improvement by his numbers because he's not trying to put up good stats, he's trying to win games. If you look at the way he was playing when KG and/or PP were out or hobbled, he probably wasn't capable of playing like that the year before. As has been mentioned, he (by most accounts) improved on the defensive end. Also, if you look at his clutch stats from 82games, his late game scoring rate doubled from year to year and his shooting percentages went up.

[kozlodoev]

Good points.

Personally, I think that that certain aspects of his play improved, such as his passing and his shooting range. On the other hand, as his shooting touch got a little better from outside, he starting taking worse shots.

Call me crazy, but I have the feeling that Rondo's jump shot has been steadily regressing for the past several years. Maybe the form looks better, but the efficiency seems to be dropping steadily.

Just eyeballing the information in NBA HotSpots, it looks like Rondo was a steady, if unspectacular, midrange shooter during our championship season. Looking at the area band between three-point area and the closer, teardrop-type shots, Rondo shot in the mid-.400s from most spots on the floor. During the last season, it looks like he took less mid-range jump shots, and converted them at a significantly poorer rate (in the .300s, even occasionally in the .200s).

[Snakehead]

Don't forget the small spike in steals.  I know steals are overrated as a means of judging defense, but I feel like Rondo has this momentum-shifting way about his steals.  Maybe I'm just a homer

I think he absolutely has gotten smarter with when he gambles for steals.  He gets the big steal but also doesn't get caught gambling as often.  You used to see that more but for how risky his defense is he minimizes the amount of time he is out of position and leaving the rest of the team at the disadvantage.

[pearljammer10]

Numbers dont account for a player entirely...

He has shown great improvements in his decision making, play calling, leadership, and just overall ability to feel out and read a game.

[Chris]

Call me crazy, but I have the feeling that Rondo's jump shot has been steadily regressing for the past several years. Maybe the form looks better, but the efficiency seems to be dropping steadily.

Well, I think part of this is the process.  I don't think it has been steadily dropping, but it did get worse, and will he will go through stretches when it gets worse than normal.  But this is what happens when you rework your shot to that kind of extent.  It takes a long time to get rid of the old habits and build new ones. 

That means that his new form will break down at times, and he just has not built up the consistency yet, that will lead to being a successful shooter. 

Give him another year or two, for his work with Price to really start paying off.  If he is not improved at that point, then I will be worried, but right now, it is just growing pains that are expected.

[xmuscularghandix]

When you completely change your shooting form you have to go through a rough process. It’s gonna get worse at first, then if you stick with it you’ll get better.

I think Rondo got through that step this year and he was looking OK by the end of the year.

[Witch-King]

The only discouraging aspect was the dip in free throw %. Frankly, going DOWN from 64% is just kinda pathetic. He HAS to get better at that considering the amount he's being paid. I feel like I can say that without trepidation. When I go over to the court or to the gym and shoot around, just for kicks I'll shoot 10 free throws to see how I do. On my WORST days I'll shoot 6/10, which is practically Rondo's average. For god's sake, I'm only an average shooter in the pickup games I play, and I can still outperform what Rondo gets paid to do as far as free throw shooting is concerned (although to be realistic, I'm not shooting free throws after getting hacked and running up and down a court for 40 minutes. still, that's why he's a professional athlete and I'm not)

Here is a clip from the Fox Sports Network's series 'Sports Science' where they examine the effects of crowd noise on a free-throw shooter.

Remember that when Rajon Rondo is going to the line, sometimes it's in pressure situations, sometimes it's after being fouled or hacked by someone who is much lager than him, and sometimes on the road against a rowdy audience:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=wkqowzcoonI

^(the segment from the show is divided into two parts, you can watch the second part clicking here: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P2o_w_cws0U )

As an aside, every time Rajon Rondo is on offense he is being guarded by people (other NBA pgs, help D, & opposing coaches' defensive schemes) who are being payed millions of dollars to try and stop him from scoring, within the games' rules. Despite this he has still shot above .500 from the field these past few seasons, so we at least know that his shot selection isn't bad. Maybe he just gets nervous at the line??

**Edit** after watching a video like that, it just amazes me how Ray Allen is able to shoot so well from the line. How on earth does he keep his composure??  

**Bonus Footage**

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NUBgEOr0rI

http://gyantunplugged.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/05/Kobe-Bryant-Utah-460x305.jpg

[dark_lord]

forget stats and trust ur eyes.....rondo is much better now than he was a few yrs ago!

[Finkelskyhook]

I can't believe anybody is even asking that question.

But he's not going to get any better playing in that meaningless pick-up tournament he's playing in now.