Is Rondo really getting better?

[BballTim]

It's obvious from watching the games that Rondo's mid-range shooting %'s have regressed because he's been jacking more shots from mid-range. It's sort of a good thing (because he's building confidence) but he shouldn't be overconfident. He should still never shoot a mid-range shot if he's being contested.

I haven't seen him "jacking". His midrange jumpers tend to be one that a decent shooter shouldn't pass up. Nothing obvious there.

In 2008 he had that baseline midrange shot. That is completely gone from his repertoire.

The most telling aspect of his lack of development isn't captured in stats. It is the number of open midrange jumpers not taken. That really hurts the offense.

  I'd like to see him take a few more shots to keep the defense honest, but they're going to give him that shot his whole career. If they guard him closely at 20 feet he'll get to the rim every time and have a much higher percentage shot. One of the main goals of the Celts defense is to force the opposing offense to take those 16-20 foot jump shots because it's the least efficient shot for most of the players in the league. He needs to improve from that range, and it would help the team if he did, but you don't want to fall into the trap of doing what the defense wants you to.

There is no way they play off him like that if he is burying those jumpers regularly. They would defend him tight and count on help defense.

The Celtics contest those shots. There is a big difference.

  They might pay more attention to him but they won't guard him tightly when he's 20 feet from the basket. Parker, Rose and CP3 take a lot of open 15-20 footers because people play off of them and none of them can get to the rim as well as Rondo. KG gets a few wide open shots from near the three point line a game. People cheat off of players 20 feet from the basket and the bulk of those shots aren't closely contested. They stay closer to the players than they do to Rondo now but they'll always give him that shot.

[guava_wrench]

It's obvious from watching the games that Rondo's mid-range shooting %'s have regressed because he's been jacking more shots from mid-range. It's sort of a good thing (because he's building confidence) but he shouldn't be overconfident. He should still never shoot a mid-range shot if he's being contested.

I haven't seen him "jacking". His midrange jumpers tend to be one that a decent shooter shouldn't pass up. Nothing obvious there.

In 2008 he had that baseline midrange shot. That is completely gone from his repertoire.

The most telling aspect of his lack of development isn't captured in stats. It is the number of open midrange jumpers not taken. That really hurts the offense.

  I'd like to see him take a few more shots to keep the defense honest, but they're going to give him that shot his whole career. If they guard him closely at 20 feet he'll get to the rim every time and have a much higher percentage shot. One of the main goals of the Celts defense is to force the opposing offense to take those 16-20 foot jump shots because it's the least efficient shot for most of the players in the league. He needs to improve from that range, and it would help the team if he did, but you don't want to fall into the trap of doing what the defense wants you to.

There is no way they play off him like that if he is burying those jumpers regularly. They would defend him tight and count on help defense.

The Celtics contest those shots. There is a big difference.

  They might pay more attention to him but they won't guard him tightly when he's 20 feet from the basket. Parker, Rose and CP3 take a lot of open 15-20 footers because people play off of them and none of them can get to the rim as well as Rondo. KG gets a few wide open shots from near the three point line a game. People cheat off of players 20 feet from the basket and the bulk of those shots aren't closely contested. They stay closer to the players than they do to Rondo now but they'll always give him that shot.

There is a big difference between playing 2 feet off of a player and complete disregard of a player. It will take a lot of film for you to convince me that opponents play off of Chris Paul in any way similar to how they play off of Rondo.

Players don't even bother trying to close out on Rondo jumpers.

If Rondo improves his jumper, that will mean his defender would play a lot less free safety. That would mean less turnovers on stripped balls.

[billysan]

Players don't even bother trying to close out on Rondo jumpers.

This fact and his FT shooting are the easily identifiable weak spots in his game. His superior overall defense, improved judgement, rebounding and speed are positives that far outweigh them for me.

The fact that he may never be more than a 65-70% (I wish) FT shooter and doesnt have a reliable jumpshot doesnt make me want to trade him for any other PG including Chris Paul as long as he plays superior defense.

Shooters and scorers are easier to find than guys with his gifts. Someday when Paul, Ray and KG are gone, we will need someone other than Rajon Rondo taking the bulk of the big game shots. That doesnt lessen his value for me.

[BballTim]

It's obvious from watching the games that Rondo's mid-range shooting %'s have regressed because he's been jacking more shots from mid-range. It's sort of a good thing (because he's building confidence) but he shouldn't be overconfident. He should still never shoot a mid-range shot if he's being contested.

I haven't seen him "jacking". His midrange jumpers tend to be one that a decent shooter shouldn't pass up. Nothing obvious there.

In 2008 he had that baseline midrange shot. That is completely gone from his repertoire.

The most telling aspect of his lack of development isn't captured in stats. It is the number of open midrange jumpers not taken. That really hurts the offense.

  I'd like to see him take a few more shots to keep the defense honest, but they're going to give him that shot his whole career. If they guard him closely at 20 feet he'll get to the rim every time and have a much higher percentage shot. One of the main goals of the Celts defense is to force the opposing offense to take those 16-20 foot jump shots because it's the least efficient shot for most of the players in the league. He needs to improve from that range, and it would help the team if he did, but you don't want to fall into the trap of doing what the defense wants you to.

There is no way they play off him like that if he is burying those jumpers regularly. They would defend him tight and count on help defense.

The Celtics contest those shots. There is a big difference.

  They might pay more attention to him but they won't guard him tightly when he's 20 feet from the basket. Parker, Rose and CP3 take a lot of open 15-20 footers because people play off of them and none of them can get to the rim as well as Rondo. KG gets a few wide open shots from near the three point line a game. People cheat off of players 20 feet from the basket and the bulk of those shots aren't closely contested. They stay closer to the players than they do to Rondo now but they'll always give him that shot.

There is a big difference between playing 2 feet off of a player and complete disregard of a player. It will take a lot of film for you to convince me that opponents play off of Chris Paul in any way similar to how they play off of Rondo.

Players don't even bother trying to close out on Rondo jumpers.

If Rondo improves his jumper, that will mean his defender would play a lot less free safety. That would mean less turnovers on stripped balls.

  I agree that players don't even bother to close him out, and that at times his defender plays free safety. I'd like to see him hit the shot well enough to keep defenses honest (as I said) but it shouldn't be a big part of his game.

   You said "The most telling aspect of his lack of development isn't captured in stats. It is the number of open midrange jumpers not taken. That really hurts the offense."

  But teams are always going to give him that shot. That doesn't mean he should take it all the time (which would also hurt the offense). Rondo takes about 2.3 15-23 foot jump shots a game. The average pg takes about 3.6 of them. He shouldn't really be taking too many more than he is, especially with the myriad of options of more efficient ways to score available to him.