I still say that Houston is going to move $10 million in salary to get under the luxury tax and that that is where Rasheed's contract is going to come in handy.
Rasheed, LaFayette, Gaffney a 1st and a 2nd for Battier and Hill
When do you see it happening -- offseason, or more like the deadline?
I would say right before the season starts and my reasoning is this:
If the season starts and the Celtics have to start paying Rasheed to keep things on the up and up regarding salary circumvention, then his contract becomes less and less valuable as the season progresses and a buy out and any salary paid to Sheed has to count against the cap. So the C's are going to be motivated to move him before the season starts.
The Rockets, on the other hand, have never been a team that ever pays the luxury tax. They already dumped David Anderson's $2.5 million salary for a second rounder. Yes they could wait to do the deal as close to the mid season cut off date for reporting salary for luxury tax purposes, but the likelihood that someone is going to trade away a $10 million salary exception(which would be what it would take) is extremely unlikely unless they are giving up on someone far more valuable than Shane Battier.
So, I think they realize that Erick Dampier's and Rasheed Wallace's contracts are the two most likely contracts to trade for that will net the the salary relief they will require to get under the lux tax and they realize that both will need to be traded for before the season starts.
So I think they will go to camp, take a look at how the team is going. See what Patterson and Budinger and Yao and Martin are able to give them and if they determine they can do some players then they move move either Battier or Jeffries along with Hill or Hayes. What I think they will find out is that no one will want Jeffries and that Battier will get them a good draft pick besides the cap relief.
That's my logic.
Of course if Houston decides to actually pay the luxury tax this year, forget everything I just wrote.