I'd give Ray a Two year deal, with a team option 3rd:
2010-2011 - 8.0 Million
2011-2012 - 6.5 Million
2012-2013 - 4.5 Million (Team Option)
Total 19 Million.
This contract would almost guarantee He'd retire a Celtic, and be wearing Green when he brakes Reggie Miller's Record.
Or we could trade him at the 2011-2012 Deadline for junk like Nate Robinson
6-8 weeks ago I would have agreed with this, now, I don't think so.
Ray, IMO, seemed to be effected mentally by the prospect of being traded away. It effected his game. What I saw as possible game decay due to age could very well have been mental fatigue and wear over the uncertainty of remaining in an area and in a situation that is perfect for him both personally and professionally.
Since his sit down with Danny and his wife, Ray's game has been different and his outside shooting touch has returned.
I think some of that is probably due to age but I am revising my opinion and now think it was mostly in his head. Once the deadline passed, he's been a better overall and all around player, playing , at times, some of the best defense I have seen him play in a Celtics uniform.
I say because of that his price has skyrocketed.
2 years - $24 million with a team option of a third year at $10 million.
Man, I don't know. I agree with all your reasoning, and as a fan, I say pay the man. But if I were ownership, I'd think twice about over paying for him at this stage. At some point, he's gotta slow down. That is max contract land. I don't think teams with that kind of cap space, no matter how desparate they are to make a splash in freeagency, will pay Ray Allen, a 36 year old shooting guard, that kind of money. I think the most he would get on the open market, is full Mid Level, 4 years. Even that is a huge stretch. He'd then be a 40 year old shooting guard. Name one player that was an effective shooting guard after 38, and I'd be shocked.
As an aside, I wonder if some teams will gamble on salary in the 2011-2012 year with the lock-out looming. For example, say the Celtics were willing to do the deal I said above, 8 first year, then 6.5 next. But they know a lockout is probably happening. So they say fine, lets go 8 mil first year - 10.5 next, hoping for a lockout. A little far fetched, I know, but it's got to be in the back of everyone's mind?