NBA.com writer feels it's unlikely Ray stays with the Celtics

[footey]

If we win the NBA Championship, Ray will stay. If we don't, management will turn the page. 

Hope he stays!

[Andy Jick]

Think James Posey...  As I've said, Danny won't overpay.  He won't overpay for Ray Allen, no matter how much he does for the community or wants to stay.  The thing I love about Danny is that he always puts winning first, with an eye on Wyc's bottom line...balance is the key.  Some of us might not like that, but I trust him.  I believe he will have some VERY difficult decisions to make this summer - on Ray, formulating a bench, etc.

Count me in the obvious minority as one who believes Ray Allen will not be overpaid to be a Celtic beyond this season, and I'd say the odds are 40-60 regarding his return...  It's going to come down to two things: cash and years...

You've said that Ray is not worth the MLE.

The Celtics were willing to give Posey a 3 year MLE deal in 2008. Are you saying that Ainge and company should think that Ray over the next 2 years should be considered a worse player than Posey in the summer of 2008? I find that hard to believe.

Ray is still a top 20 SG right now (and declining very slowly). In 2008, Posey was a top 40 SF... if that. Big difference.

my fault...what i implied was comparing their VALUE relative to what kind of contract they would want, not their specific contract numbers themselves.  I believe that Posey got more than he deserved (at least in length) the same way I believe that Ray Allen is not worth the kind of contract that some here want to give him.

Would you still want Posey on the books for two more years at the kind of money he wanted?  Honestly?  Not me.  Now imagine Ray suddenly slumps next season and becomes, say, a 35% shooter...  Do you want that on the books for two more seasons and at 14 million per?

[ssspence]

Ray wants to stay in Boston. Personally. If the Cs make him a reasonable offer, he's stayin....

[Brendan]

Think James Posey...  As I've said, Danny won't overpay.  He won't overpay for Ray Allen, no matter how much he does for the community or wants to stay.  The thing I love about Danny is that he always puts winning first, with an eye on Wyc's bottom line...balance is the key.  Some of us might not like that, but I trust him.  I believe he will have some VERY difficult decisions to make this summer - on Ray, formulating a bench, etc.

Count me in the obvious minority as one who believes Ray Allen will not be overpaid to be a Celtic beyond this season, and I'd say the odds are 40-60 regarding his return...  It's going to come down to two things: cash and years...

You've said that Ray is not worth the MLE.

The Celtics were willing to give Posey a 3 year MLE deal in 2008. Are you saying that Ainge and company should think that Ray over the next 2 years should be considered a worse player than Posey in the summer of 2008? I find that hard to believe.

Ray is still a top 20 SG right now (and declining very slowly). In 2008, Posey was a top 40 SF... if that. Big difference.

More importantly than rank "Top 20" is the absolute value to the team. Ray would be playing starter minutes (30+ per game) Posey would have been playing less (he averaged 25 MPG.) Ray is statistically above average player and is fits in perfectly with Rondo (I think Ray would fit in well with any set of front court players the Celts have over the next three years, the key here is meshing well with Rondo.) Ray Allen is also famous for staying in shape, Posey was infamous for getting fined by Pat (along with Antoine) for being fat.

Looking at it from finances stand point, you have to have someone to take Ray's minutes and a path to acquire them. If he leaves and you are left playing Tony Allen and using Nate off the bench - you run the risk of losing a serious amount of revenue from attendance.

Now @Andy Jick:

Can you say given what Ray Allen is doing now and the risk of decline - what contract you WOULD give him?

I think most feel he can and will be signed for around 8-10 million for 2 or 3 years. What contract would work?

How about a 2 yr deal @ 8 million per year w/ a team option for the third year at the same amount? What about a declining three year deal at 10-8-6 with a team option for a fourth year at 6?

Etc. You are arguing against signing him without saying the price threshold you would sign him for.

[Mr October]

Think James Posey...  As I've said, Danny won't overpay.  He won't overpay for Ray Allen, no matter how much he does for the community or wants to stay.  The thing I love about Danny is that he always puts winning first, with an eye on Wyc's bottom line...balance is the key.  Some of us might not like that, but I trust him.  I believe he will have some VERY difficult decisions to make this summer - on Ray, formulating a bench, etc.

Count me in the obvious minority as one who believes Ray Allen will not be overpaid to be a Celtic beyond this season, and I'd say the odds are 40-60 regarding his return...  It's going to come down to two things: cash and years...

You've said that Ray is not worth the MLE.

The Celtics were willing to give Posey a 3 year MLE deal in 2008. Are you saying that Ainge and company should think that Ray over the next 2 years should be considered a worse player than Posey in the summer of 2008? I find that hard to believe.

Ray is still a top 20 SG right now (and declining very slowly). In 2008, Posey was a top 40 SF... if that. Big difference.

my fault...what i implied was comparing their VALUE relative to what kind of contract they would want, not their specific contract numbers themselves.  I believe that Posey got more than he deserved (at least in length) the same way I believe that Ray Allen is not worth the kind of contract that some here want to give him.

Would you still want Posey on the books for two more years at the kind of money he wanted?  Honestly?  Not me.  Now imagine Ray suddenly slumps next season and becomes, say, a 35% shooter...  Do you want that on the books for two more seasons and at 14 million per?

I never said I wanted Ray at 14 per. That would be a foolish number. I, like most on this blog, want him at around 9 million per, for 2 years (which is about 2.2 million per year above the MLE for only 2 years - when the C's have no cap space anyway).

I'll take that chance that Ray will not slump down to 35%. I expect Ray to continue his steady but slow decline. Posey on the other hand had a high potential to drop off in basketball shape.

Did I want Posey for 4 years? no. But 3? yes, I did. If KG were healthy last year and Posey were back, the Celtics were the hands down title favorites.

And exploring sign and trades should be done this summer. However, if nothing good reveals itself, would you just let Ray walk for nothing? I wouldn't. I'd sign him for 2 years because he is still at least an average quality starter, and a well above average NBA player.

[bucknersrevenge]

Think James Posey...  As I've said, Danny won't overpay.  He won't overpay for Ray Allen, no matter how much he does for the community or wants to stay.  The thing I love about Danny is that he always puts winning first, with an eye on Wyc's bottom line...balance is the key.  Some of us might not like that, but I trust him.  I believe he will have some VERY difficult decisions to make this summer - on Ray, formulating a bench, etc.

Count me in the obvious minority as one who believes Ray Allen will not be overpaid to be a Celtic beyond this season, and I'd say the odds are 40-60 regarding his return...  It's going to come down to two things: cash and years...

You've said that Ray is not worth the MLE.

The Celtics were willing to give Posey a 3 year MLE deal in 2008. Are you saying that Ainge and company should think that Ray over the next 2 years should be considered a worse player than Posey in the summer of 2008? I find that hard to believe.

Ray is still a top 20 SG right now (and declining very slowly). In 2008, Posey was a top 40 SF... if that. Big difference.

my fault...what i implied was comparing their VALUE relative to what kind of contract they would want, not their specific contract numbers themselves.  I believe that Posey got more than he deserved (at least in length) the same way I believe that Ray Allen is not worth the kind of contract that some here want to give him.

Would you still want Posey on the books for two more years at the kind of money he wanted?  Honestly?  Not me.  Now imagine Ray suddenly slumps next season and becomes, say, a 35% shooter...  Do you want that on the books for two more seasons and at 14 million per?

I don't get this. Who else is talking 14 mil? The only one mentioning 12-14 mil a season for Ray here is YOU. You're changing the facts to support your own conclusions. Almost to a man everyone else here as said 2 yr 16-20 mil. That's it. That's all and that's solid value for Ray. Now if you're here saying you think 8 or 9 per is STILL too expensive that's one thing Or if you're saying you think Ray would be inclined to reject a proposal like that then say so. But you're running away from the argument.

Honestly I think Ray places high priority on staying in this area. And assuming Paul will also be back I don't see any reason why he would leave. I really don't. I think he likes it here. I don't think he wants to move his young son around again especially since the Joslin Diabetes Center has been involved with his son. And you don't you underestimate how much Walker factors into this.

[Andy Jick]

So you guys honestly believe Ray's going to take that DRASTIC of a paycut?  Sounds like you guys are saying that to support your conclusions, not mine.  I see NO way Ray will come down well over 50% on a paycut...no way in the world.

I believe he will command a 2-3 year deal at 12-14 million per.  But anyone who thinks he'll give a discount of 8 million per is off base. 

What if some stupid team steps up to the plate and offers Ray a 3 year deal at 12 million and the Celtics say, "no, we'll go 2 years at 8 million per..."  Ray walks...it's that simple. 

See, I don't think he's as in love with the Celtics as many others here do.  Sure, it's been an honor to play here, but he got his ring.  I believe that he, KG and Paul may have worn on each other.  Ray knows he's got ONE contract left to make some good cash.  I'm not saying he's totally in it for the money, but when push comes to shove, he'll take the money. 

This might be the "Celtics" but it's not your 1960's to 1980's versions, where the loyalty & history still mean all that much.  20 years ago Ray might have been honored to finish up here, but it's different today.  Ray probably believes he's still worth a lot of money, and that worth will be determined by the highest bidder...  And we all know that there's a sucker out there that will give it to him...

[Chris]

So you guys honestly believe Ray's going to take that DRASTIC of a paycut?  Sounds like you guys are saying that to support your conclusions, not mine.  I see NO way Ray will come down well over 50% on a paycut...no way in the world.

I believe he will command a 2-3 year deal at 12-14 million per.  But anyone who thinks he'll give a discount of 8 million per is off base. 

What if some stupid team steps up to the plate and offers Ray a 3 year deal at 12 million and the Celtics say, "no, we'll go 2 years at 8 million per..."  Ray walks...it's that simple. 

I think what everyone is saying is that we do not expect any team to offer him 3 years at $12 million per.  There are only so many teams with that kind of cap space, and there are lots of better options, when you start talking that kind of money. 

The reason teams under the cap would be interested in Ray is because they could get him for a bargain compared to someone like Joe Johnson, but they certainly are not going to start throwing that kind of money at Ray.

So no one is suggesting that he is going to take $8 million from the C's, when $12 million is on the table, we are all arguing that we don't believe $12 million is going to be on the table.

So no one is "off base" here, you are just misunderstanding our argument.

[the_Bird]

How many free agents last offseason got more than $10M/year?  The only two I recall were Ben Gordon and Hedo, both of whom signed five-year deals at $50M - $55M, total.

NBA economics aren't very good.  Guys take paycuts all the time.  How much of a paycut did KG take on the extension he signed a few years ago?  

Look at the contract that Rondo signed last season, which pretty much everyone agreed was fair value.  YOUNG, all-star talent player at a premier position, getting about $10M per.  Hell, Chris Paul isn't even making $14M/year.

Besides, with the new CBA coming, I'd be absolutely shocked if player salaries as a whole don't come down quite a bit.  The owners aren't planning a lockout because they can't figure out how to give away all this money!  There was a huge change in the salary structure as a result of the last significant change in the CBA, and conditions for NBA owners have not gotten any better.

Think you're just out of touch with NBA economics.  $8M/$10M year is the going rate for a very-good-but-not-exceptional player, the only real question is whether a team might be willing to tack on a third guaranteed year.  

[Andy Jick]

The salary cap is going up next season...  Revenues are up and David Stern has said such.  I'm not quite off base, as some seem to think...

[the_Bird]

Cap ain't going up, it's just not going down as much as they were worried it might.  Stealing from Coon...

Season Defined percentage of BRI Actual salary cap

2005-06 49.5%* $49.5 million ($37.125 million for the Charlotte Bobcats)
2006-07 51% $53.135 million
2007-08 51% $55.63 million
2008-09 51% $58.68 million
2009-10 51% $57.7 million
2010-11 51% 
2011-12 51% 

Next year, projection is around $55M; worry was that it was going to be around $50M. 

Revenues are down, not as horribly as they were worried they would be, but they're still down.  Still see far too many empty seats (in playoff games).

[Mr October]

So you guys honestly believe Ray's going to take that DRASTIC of a paycut?  Sounds like you guys are saying that to support your conclusions, not mine.  I see NO way Ray will come down well over 50% on a paycut...no way in the world.

I believe he will command a 2-3 year deal at 12-14 million per.  But anyone who thinks he'll give a discount of 8 million per is off base. 

What if some stupid team steps up to the plate and offers Ray a 3 year deal at 12 million and the Celtics say, "no, we'll go 2 years at 8 million per..."  Ray walks...it's that simple. 

I think what everyone is saying is that we do not expect any team to offer him 3 years at $12 million per.  There are only so many teams with that kind of cap space, and there are lots of better options, when you start talking that kind of money. 

The reason teams under the cap would be interested in Ray is because they could get him for a bargain compared to someone like Joe Johnson, but they certainly are not going to start throwing that kind of money at Ray.

So no one is suggesting that he is going to take $8 million from the C's, when $12 million is on the table, we are all arguing that we don't believe $12 million is going to be on the table.

So no one is "off base" here, you are just misunderstanding our argument.

TP for clarifying. Ray Allen is a hired gun. If 9 million is the best offer out there, I think he's be very willing to stay here for that amount.

[bucknersrevenge]

So you guys honestly believe Ray's going to take that DRASTIC of a paycut?  Sounds like you guys are saying that to support your conclusions, not mine.  I see NO way Ray will come down well over 50% on a paycut...no way in the world.

I believe he will command a 2-3 year deal at 12-14 million per.  But anyone who thinks he'll give a discount of 8 million per is off base. 

What if some stupid team steps up to the plate and offers Ray a 3 year deal at 12 million and the Celtics say, "no, we'll go 2 years at 8 million per..."  Ray walks...it's that simple. 

See, I don't think he's as in love with the Celtics as many others here do.  Sure, it's been an honor to play here, but he got his ring.  I believe that he, KG and Paul may have worn on each other.  Ray knows he's got ONE contract left to make some good cash.  I'm not saying he's totally in it for the money, but when push comes to shove, he'll take the money. 

This might be the "Celtics" but it's not your 1960's to 1980's versions, where the loyalty & history still mean all that much.  20 years ago Ray might have been honored to finish up here, but it's different today.  Ray probably believes he's still worth a lot of money, and that worth will be determined by the highest bidder...  And we all know that there's a sucker out there that will give it to him...

Who pays a 35 yr old FA 2guard 12-14 mil? Any team making that sizeable of an investment is making that for the longhaul and certainly with WADE, Johnson and maybe others on the market I don't see teams finding value in signing a new FA for only 2 yrs at that large a salary. Here where he's familiar with the roster, his role, the teammates, the area. Even at 8-10 per he really doesn't make sense anywhere but here.

[Mr October]

The salary cap is going up next season...  Revenues are up and David Stern has said such.  I'm not quite off base, as some seem to think...

There will be about 7 teams with salary space to go above the MLE.

Ray Allen is maybe the 10th most intriguing free agent prospect out there. And even then, if you miss out on the big free agents, wouldn't a team like Chicago be better off signing 2 guys for 6-7 million per, instead of Allen for 12 per (especially considering his age and expected decline)?

For a random pick example: Mike Miller, Travis Outlaw, or Josh Howard combined with Al Harrington, Brad Miller, Udonis Haslem, Brendan Haywood or JJ Reddick.

The number of excellent players available is greater than the number of teams with cap space. A lot of guys are going to get crunched. I think Ray is one of those guys.

[Andy Jick]

Season Defined percentage of BRI Actual salary cap

2005-06 49.5%* $49.5 million ($37.125 million for the Charlotte Bobcats)
2006-07 51% $53.135 million
2007-08 51% $55.63 million
2008-09 51% $58.68 million
2009-10 51% $57.7 million
2010-11 51%
2011-12 51%

It's projected to be $56.1 million next season (per David Stern - April 16th).

http://www.nba.com/2010/news/04/16/boardofgovernors.ap/index.html

That doesn't mean "up" (my fault) but it does mean higher than anticipated.