NBA.com writer feels it's unlikely Ray stays with the Celtics

[Chris]

If you beleieve that the window will close after this year, the smart thing to do with Ray would be a sign and trade.  I love Ray as much as any other fan but the goal is to improve the team going forward.  If this team does not have a chance for a title AND we can get better trading Ray then there is no reason to resign and keep him. 

Same goes for PP and KG.  If the Celts are overly sentimental here, the future could be comprimised.

Thats all good and fine, but you need a partner for a trade.  If you cannot get good value, then you are better off keeping the effective player for a reasonable price IMO.

But I agree that they are all on the market after this season for the right price.

Oh, I understand that.  As far as value, I don't think there is any question that contending teams would covet Ray.  He obviously can still play and would really help a team looking to take the next step.  So the interest will be there.

For our part, the team has to determine what is reasonable value considering the place it will find itself in next year (again, assuming the window has closed).  Since contending teams will likely not want to give up good players, the most likely scenerio is the Celts receive picks for Ray (in addition to cap fillers).  Would the 18th pick be enough for Ray if he were traded to a team like Miami? 

Or maybe a three-way trade could bring a more sensible trade?  Not sure one can even do a three-way sign and trade but just thinking of different possibilities.

If they can sign and trade straight up for a draft pick, that would be great.  But first off, they can't do that, since you can't sign FA until after the draft.  But even if they traded him for the player that the team had drafted, the other team would need to have the cap space to absorb him.  Miami in theory could...but I think they will be going after bigger fish first, so it is not all that much of a given they would.

Sign and trades are just not easy to make.  I think its a legit possibility, but I think it is still much less likely than the c's just signing him. 

The problem is how much "less" will it take to keep Ray?  I honestly don't believe he's worth more than the MLE.  I know that sounds cold, but I don't want a 36 year shooting guard on this team next season for, say, 3 years and 12-14 million per.  I believe that's what it will take, and that's just too much money...

Well, he is going to get more than the MLE.  And I don't see how you figure that is all he is worth.  He is still one of the top 5-10 SG's in the league, and shows little evidence of slowing down too much.  I agree that I would not give him 3 years, or $12+ million per year.  However, I think 2 years, 8-10 million is right in that sweet spot, where it is reasonable money for him, and works for the C's at all.  I really would be surprised if there are any teams with cap space willing to give Ray much more than that.  And for a sign and trade to work, the C's hold some cards as well. 

[pearljammer10]

If he takes a major major pay cut then I think hell stay. I think he is willing to do that too because he lives in Wellsley and just enrolled his daughter into a good school for volleyball.

[j804]

I would love for Ray to retire a Celtic.


Thats all.

[droopdog7]

If you beleieve that the window will close after this year, the smart thing to do with Ray would be a sign and trade.  I love Ray as much as any other fan but the goal is to improve the team going forward.  If this team does not have a chance for a title AND we can get better trading Ray then there is no reason to resign and keep him. 

Same goes for PP and KG.  If the Celts are overly sentimental here, the future could be comprimised.

Thats all good and fine, but you need a partner for a trade.  If you cannot get good value, then you are better off keeping the effective player for a reasonable price IMO.

But I agree that they are all on the market after this season for the right price.

Oh, I understand that.  As far as value, I don't think there is any question that contending teams would covet Ray.  He obviously can still play and would really help a team looking to take the next step.  So the interest will be there.

For our part, the team has to determine what is reasonable value considering the place it will find itself in next year (again, assuming the window has closed).  Since contending teams will likely not want to give up good players, the most likely scenerio is the Celts receive picks for Ray (in addition to cap fillers).  Would the 18th pick be enough for Ray if he were traded to a team like Miami? 

Or maybe a three-way trade could bring a more sensible trade?  Not sure one can even do a three-way sign and trade but just thinking of different possibilities.

If they can sign and trade straight up for a draft pick, that would be great.  But first off, they can't do that, since you can't sign FA until after the draft.  But even if they traded him for the player that the team had drafted, the other team would need to have the cap space to absorb him.  Miami in theory could...but I think they will be going after bigger fish first, so it is not all that much of a given they would.

Sign and trades are just not easy to make.  I think its a legit possibility, but I think it is still much less likely than the c's just signing him. 

The problem is how much "less" will it take to keep Ray?  I honestly don't believe he's worth more than the MLE.  I know that sounds cold, but I don't want a 36 year shooting guard on this team next season for, say, 3 years and 12-14 million per.  I believe that's what it will take, and that's just too much money...

Well, he is going to get more than the MLE.  And I don't see how you figure that is all he is worth.  He is still one of the top 5-10 SG's in the league, and shows little evidence of slowing down too much.  I agree that I would not give him 3 years, or $12+ million per year.  However, I think 2 years, 8-10 million is right in that sweet spot, where it is reasonable money for him, and works for the C's at all.  I really would be surprised if there are any teams with cap space willing to give Ray much more than that.  And for a sign and trade to work, the C's hold some cards as well. 

Yeah, I understand that salaries and such would have to match, that is why I mentioned cap fillers.  And I agree, a sign and trade wouldn't be easy to pull off.  And it looks like any draft picks would have to be delayed until the following year. 

Either way, just thinking about how to improve the team moving forward using Ray and his contract.  In the end, I see no use in signing Ray beyond next year.  He likely would not take that so rather than lose him for nothing, a sign and trade seems like something the team should consider.

[youcanthandlethetruth113]

Nah, Ray will be back. That's just wishful thinking on their parts.  They're just mad because their prediction of Cleveland dominating us is not coming true.

TP for you Bankshot! That's exactly what I was thinking. When people can't admit they are wrong (i.e. they said trading for Ray on draft day years back was silly because he was coming off double-ankle surgery, etc...) they start getting wishful.

[Chris]

Yeah, I understand that salaries and such would have to match, that is why I mentioned cap fillers.  And I agree, a sign and trade wouldn't be easy to pull off.  And it looks like any draft picks would have to be delayed until the following year. 

Either way, just thinking about how to improve the team moving forward using Ray and his contract.  In the end, I see no use in signing Ray beyond next year.  He likely would not take that so rather than lose him for nothing, a sign and trade seems like something the team should consider.

Well, they have already said they will consider it.  But I think there is also value in signing him, if the price is right.  If they do not get a good offer for a sign and trade, but sign him to a reasonable 2 year deal, even if they decided they wanted to move on after next year, they would then have his valuable expiring contract to move to try to bring in assets. 

Personally, my top choice would be a sign and trade for a high quality player or asset.  For example, Ray and Perk for Boozer.  However, I don't think that is all that likely to be on the table, so if they cannot get good value for him, and he is willing to sign for reasonable money, then I think resigning him is absolutely the smartest move, rather than a bad sign and trade, or just letting him walk.

[shuttles20]

if we get boozer , what are we doing to do with KG? He is not a center

[csfansince60s]

Personally, my top choice would be a sign and trade for a high quality player or asset.  For example, Ray and Perk for Boozer.  

I like that idea a lot. Another might be Bosh and Bellinelli for Perk and Ray. Toronto may bite knowing Bosh will walk for nothing.

[pearljammer10]

Why does everyone undervalue Perk so much on this board? I really dont get it. He is one of the best defensive centers in the league... His stats may not show it, even though they are very good. He changes so many things when he is bodying up the opposing teams big man. He even gets props for his relentless from the other best centers in the league (Dwight Howard for example). He is much more important to this team than a lot of people think.

[billysan]

I dont really agree with the sentiment that the Miami Heat are even interested in Ray Allen. Why would they be unless Wade leaves? Even then he is a lesser talent at this stage of his career. He doesnt really serve a need for them and would force Wade or himself to play out of position.

I do believe that Danny will be active in the sign and trade market. He can resign Ray for 8-10 per x2, which is more than Ray will likely see on the open market and then trade for a 'group' of players and/or picks from someone like the Bulls who do need a SG.

If not, then we still have Ray for a couple of years at an affordable price.

[guava_wrench]

if we get boozer , what are we doing to do with KG? He is not a center

Yeah. Doesn't make sense to me either.

[LooseCannon]

Does Ray take 2 years, $10 million per to stay? I think so.

That has a huge impact to our cap - and ability to compete -next season. We will bring back our starting five, plus Davis and Wallace for $74 million.

The whole point is that signing Ray Allen pretty much has no impact on Boston's salary cap situation.  Definitely not for next season with Boston already over the cap.  Probably not for the season after that, with KG's contract still on the books, unless next season is Paul Pierce's last as a Celtic or you think they only pay him $5 million/year to stay.

A three-year deal, structured so that it decreases by the maximum each season keeps Ray Allen for the two years that KG has left with the team, and makes him a much more attractive expiring contract at the last moment.  A two-year deal, if large enough to give RA the financial security he seeks, leaves the door open for the guy to return for an even smaller contract afterward, perhaps as a sharpshooter off the bench.

[rav123]

First off, any idea that Ray or Paul or taking paycuts is hilarious...  Guys don't take paycuts...just won't happen.

Secondly, the Celtics would be foolish to re-sign Ray for anything more than ONE year.  You don't sign aging shooting guards to long-term deals.

Rondo needs a youthful back-court mate, and Ray would be a nice addition off the bench as the 6th man, but I'm guessing Ray isn't ready for that just yet. 

Face it...THIS is the year for this team.  Either they get it done this year or Danny would be wise to move into a "retooling" mode. 

Plenty do. Tim Duncan took one so SA could stay competitive.

Anyway, I think we'll offer Ray $9 million per year for 2 years. He and KG will retire after these contracts expire (I hope they do. I don't like seeing superstars stay too long in the league, watching them become below-average and reduce their career-average stats as well). Paul is probably too young to retire with them.

Our ownership looks like it's ready to pay to win (e.g. if we take CLE to 6/7 games this year, or go further). I think we resign Ray and Tony, and Baby. WE'll replace Shelden with an atheltic minimum-salary big, and we'll replace Marquis with an SG/SF getting paid near-full MLE. We'll have to get a Vet Min backup PG. Then of course there are our two draft picks.

Of course, if we lose the next three games, it'll be rebuilding time (unless Wyc/Ainge believe that KG will be better next year, as his injury is supposed to take a full year to heal). Then anything can happen.

[j804]

Why does everyone undervalue Perk so much on this board? I really dont get it. He is one of the best defensive centers in the league... His stats may not show it, even though they are very good. He changes so many things when he is bodying up the opposing teams big man. He even gets props for his relentless from the other best centers in the league (Dwight Howard for example). He is much more important to this team than a lot of people think.

THIS.

Without Perk throw our defense out the window.

[twinbree]

Why does everyone undervalue Perk so much on this board? I really dont get it. He is one of the best defensive centers in the league... His stats may not show it, even though they are very good. He changes so many things when he is bodying up the opposing teams big man. He even gets props for his relentless from the other best centers in the league (Dwight Howard for example). He is much more important to this team than a lot of people think.

THIS.

Without Perk throw our defense out the window.

Yeah if we want to contend in the future we can't trade Perk for a PF and especially not ones who are at best mediocre defenders. The lack of size will kill us in the playoffs. I hope the team has him in their long-term plans. He's still young and keeps improving every season. I don't know if the upgrade on offense will make up for the loss of his size and defensive prowess.

As for Ray seems more likely than not to me he'll be back. Not much flexibility for us to do otherwise. Of course I'd love to have him back because he's Ray not just because the options are limited.