NBA.com writer feels it's unlikely Ray stays with the Celtics

[Fafnir]

I think Ray will stay, he and both Pierce will take mayor pay cuts, maybe even KG, and we will see another big name in green next season

KG is currently under contract, there is no realistic way for him to take a paycut.

He'd have to do something nuts and take a buy out and then sign for the veteran's minimum. That is not going to happen.

[P2]

I'm pretty sure he'll be back next year. Nobody is going to give him more than $6-7M per year for more than 2 years.

[Evantime34]

I myself don't necessarily agree. I think once Ray remained with the team through the trading deadline because Danny couldn't get proper value for him in a trade, the Celtics resigned themselves to the idea that what was in this team's best interest was to keep the core(starters, Baby, Tony) together through the end of the 2011-12 season                           

Could not agree more.

If the C's don't resign him, they will still have to fill his roster spot. However, the C's will already be over the cap and thus unable to sign anyone to replace him aside from using the MLE. So if they can sign him to a deal for less than the MLE they are actually saving money. As far as letting him walk and then replacing him with a vet min player, that would be such a huge downgrade in talent that the money for ray would be worth it.

It seems that it is in the Celtics best interest to sign him. Some say we could start the transition to the younger players next year but that doesn't make any sense. We won't have any cap room until KG, Paul and to a lesser extent Sheed come off the books. Why not sign Ray to a deal so that his contract comes up when theirs do?

[the_Bird]

The only way Ray doesn't come back is if he gets a contract offer somewhere else with a third year.  I expect he'll sign a two-year deal for something in the neighborhood of $16M - $20M (total); if someone offers him something like 3/$27M, he'd have to think about that.

DA won't extend him beyond 2012, though. 

[Chris]

I don't know what that is based on.  I think there is certainly a chance he goes elsewhere, however, I think there is a better chance the C's give him the money to stick around, unless they can get value for him in a sign and trade.  Given the C's cap situation, if they can sign him to a reasonable contract for short years, it just makes too much sense to hold on to him.  I think it will be something like a 2 year $18-20 million contract, perhaps with a partially guaranteed 3rd year.

[colincb]

I don't know who Shaun Powell is and why I should give his opinions any credence.

RA says he wants to stay. Might Boston cut him loose? If the Cavs go and win the next 3 games and ownership wants to blow up the team, then maybe. Otherwise, I think he re-signs for something above the MLE and below Rondo's contract per year for 2-3 years.

[Moranis]

I'd sign and trade him to Chicago for Hinrich (I'd prefer Deng, but that isn't happening).  Gives Chicago a better complimentary piece to go with Rose and gives us a younger player that can play both SG and PG who while not an elite shooter (like allen) is definately a very good shooter.

[fairweatherfan]

Ray's taking a big pay cut no matter where he winds up next year.  I think his inclination is to stay in Boston - it seems like he likes it here and is the sort of guy who values stability at this point in his career.

A lot depends on how the free agent market shakes out, and if someone wants to offer him a deal as a complementary star to one of the young superstars.  I just hope I don't have to see him catching passes from LeBron 

[wdleehi]

I'd sign and trade him to Chicago for Hinrich (I'd prefer Deng, but that isn't happening).  Gives Chicago a better complimentary piece to go with Rose and gives us a younger player that can play both SG and PG who while not an elite shooter (like allen) is definately a very good shooter.

I think Hinrich is too overpayed (especially when being asked to be a SG, not a PG) to bring in. 

Deng on the other hand...

[Chris]

I'd sign and trade him to Chicago for Hinrich (I'd prefer Deng, but that isn't happening).  Gives Chicago a better complimentary piece to go with Rose and gives us a younger player that can play both SG and PG who while not an elite shooter (like allen) is definately a very good shooter.

I think Hinrich is too overpayed (especially when being asked to be a SG, not a PG) to bring in. 

Deng on the other hand...

Yeah.  Hinrich is overpaid, and out of position.  He is a PG, who has been masquerading as a SG.  Unless they gave us some real sweetener, I wouldn't consider it. 

[Moranis]

I'd sign and trade him to Chicago for Hinrich (I'd prefer Deng, but that isn't happening).  Gives Chicago a better complimentary piece to go with Rose and gives us a younger player that can play both SG and PG who while not an elite shooter (like allen) is definately a very good shooter.

I think Hinrich is too overpayed (especially when being asked to be a SG, not a PG) to bring in. 

Deng on the other hand...

Yeah.  Hinrich is overpaid, and out of position.  He is a PG, who has been masquerading as a SG.  Unless they gave us some real sweetener, I wouldn't consider it. 

Hinrich is a solid 6'3", sure that isn't ideal for a SG, but he isn't that small especially when you look around the league at starting SG's (West, Wade, Ray, etc. aren't exactly Kobe or Joe Johnson in the size department).  He is a career 38% shooter from 3, which isn't elite, but is good.  His salary next year is 9 million and the year after that is 8.5 million.  Not exactly overpriced in the scheme of things (I mean seriously look around the league and that is well within range for someone in his range). 

If Ray is going to leave, Hinrich, while not an ideal replacement, would certainly be a good replacement.

[Michael Anthony]

With Garnett and Wallace expiring in two seasons, it is unlikely we give anyone an extension or contract beyond that time - Ray and Pierce included.

That means we will have to pay overmarket for the next two seasons to keep them.

Does Ray take 2 years, $10 million per to stay? I think so.

That has a huge impact to our cap - and ability to compete -next season. We will bring back our starting five, plus Davis and Wallace for $74 million.

Assuming we are willing to go to $84 million again, the same as this year, that leaves us with $10 million to spend on 7 players.

$2 million: 1st and 2nd round draft picks
$5.5 million: MLE wing? Split two ways?
$2.5 million: remaining money for vet minimum signings to fill out the remaining three or four spots

Probably means we keep Scal for two more seasons, but say goodbye to TA, Robinson, Daniels and maybe Williams.

[Fafnir]

If Ray is going to leave, Hinrich, while not an ideal replacement, would certainly be a good replacement.

The problem is that Hinrich's skill set is that of a PG. And despite being 6' 3" and giving effort he is not a good defender at the SG position.

[Trifecta]

I think he'd have to take a large pay cut to stay here.  Having said that, Ray Allen is one of the only players in the NBA who I could see shelving his pride to do that.

Well how much would he expect to get otherwise? I mean I think he realizes his age is a huge determining factor in how much he would get on the open market. Ray has to be realistic, and I think he will be.

[Change]

Ray needs Rondo, Rondo needs Ray

Those two are interconnected by the hips. For Rondo to succeed he needs a sharp shooter like Ray to space the floor for him. For Ray to succeed he needs a great passer like Rondo. No body knows the future, but more than likely Ray will be re-signed. How much? I don't know. How Long? I don't know. We'll just have to wait and see.