Yes, he can be a starter on a championship level team, with a few conditions. There are several reason why this is so, then I'll list the limiting conditions:
1. Heart, he has a huge one and that should never be under estimated. Beasely has a ton of talent, so does J O'neal, but they don't have alot of heart and never have. There are alot of players like them. There are not alot of players with the heart of Big baby. I'll put my money on that and I'd much rather go into a fight with baby than alot of other guys who apparently have "more talent".
2. Toughness: He will put his nose "willingly" into the mix every night and will go to the mat without hesitation.
3. Strength: Very few players have come aloing with his level of pure strength and physical stature. Right now, you have Shaq, Howard, Baby and....and....maybe 1-2 other guys in league. Rare commodity, particulalry helpful in the playoffs.
4. Talent and determination: He is talented enough and determined enough to continue to improve his effectiveness, he's already shown that with his current progress each year.
5. He's a gamer: This may be the most imnportant one of all. There is no question he likes the limelight, the big game, the big show. All great players have that quality and seek that light. Baby LOVES it, he wants to be a star, take the big shot, etc. I AM NOT SYAING HE IS A "GREAT PLAYER" right now. He is just a decent player. However, he has shown he is a gamer and wants it.
Now, here are the only real limitations I see.
1. He needs to lose weight, yes, but he doesn't have to lose 40-50 pounds. 25-30 would do it. I guy like Baby losing 25-30 pounds would be like me losing 15-20 poounds. It wouldn't cost him or me any strength whatsoever. To the contrary, it would probably make him stronger. He'd also be faster and have more lift. He is already remarkably fast for his current weight. Think of him with 30 less pounds.
2. Karl Malone program. All body fat gone, and ripped.
3. He's getting better at the next thing but still has a way to go...undestand how to use his body width and weight to create more contact that also creates more space for his shot in close without getting offensive fouls. Shaq, Malone, Barkeley and most other good big man scorers developed this around the rim. It's called bullying...
4. The only other key things he needs to do, and it's a big one, is:
A) learn how to use the width of his body to protect the ball, mainly by continuing to develop the little baby hook he used last night rolling through the lane. He needs to perfect that shot for himself with both his right and left hands. His body / shoulders are wide enough to give him the space to get that type of shot off consistently around the rim. His jump is fine and imporving, he already can put the ball on the floor. His main problem is figuring out a go to shot around the rim to prevetn so many blocks. This shot, left and right hand will go along way towards solving that problem. If he solves those problems, you'd probably be looking at 30 points last night, with 10 boards. Those are starting numbers.
B) Understand when he's buried under the basket and just get the ball back out and reset. Will greatly improve his efficiency and overall effectiveness as well.
It took Perk alot of years to improve slightly offensively. Baby has infinitely more natural offensive talent.
If Baby can accomplish the above, he absolutely can be a starting PF on a championship team. Defensively and offensively he will always have some limitations due to his height and shorter arms.
BUT, everyone has their own specific limitations, including KG, PP, Ray Allen and Rondo.
Defensively, he will have to use his strength to keep slightly taller guys just outside there normal distance form the bakset that is their comfort zone, which will limit their offense.
Think of Baby with 25-30 pounds less wieght, just as strong, or stronger actually, about 20% faster, with more lift around the rim and a go to left and right baby hook in close.
It's a long list but all in all not really that much to improve, it's his job...and he has the talent to achieve all the above. The biggest challenge for him, will probably be if he can take the weight off, enough to make him a bit quicker without losing strength. If he can do all that, he can probably average 20-30 a night with 8-12 boards and a few blocks, a few steals. Those are not starters numbers, they're all star numbers.
If he can't evelove like that, I agree with everyone else that he will be just a good olisd role player off the bench as an energy guy. Either way, I'm interested in keeping him long term as some part of the "next team" after our current big three are done.