Rondo and Garnett make the Basketball Prospectus All-Defensive First Team

[twinbree]

Good for them. I have no problem with either. To me just means they were the best at their position this season based on certain stats. Has nothing to do with how good a defender they've been or can be.

Rondo I wish could stay in front of his man but even with that I can still appreciate what he does now. Defending PGs is tough and he's so small. Seems like his man is taller and/or heavier every night so I'm pleasantly surprised to read he's keeping them at below average production.

I haven't watched much non-Celtics ball this season but from the little I've seen I'm drawing a blank thinking of PFs who bother to play any defense let alone be good defenders. Even steps slower it's very believable that KG is still be one of the best. It's between KG and Duncan but having better defenders beside him gives KG the edge I think.

[drza44]

Interesting.  And all the more reason to try to move KG to Center.  Even though he does not have the quickness to hang with some PF's, he still is an exceptional team defender.  If you put him against slower centers, he could really flourish, and it would allow you to bring in a quicker player to run around with the PF's.

The thing is, if you look at the names on my little cherry-picked list of shutouts, it would appear that KG has had some huge games against the smaller, perimeter-based PFs.  Dirk.  West.  Jamison.  Even Beasley.  He also tends to do well against guys like Bosh.  I'm not averse to him spending more time at center, but I'm not sure that the results back up your premise.

[BballTim]

In some of the advance metric stats for defense in a lot of sports, I just don't agree with them. In basketball, those advanced defensive metrics rely quite a bit on on-off court stats. But if you are a team with a great starting five and a horrible bench and a coach that is in love with two distinctive teams of starters and subs, those on and off the court metrics are going to be very skewed in relation to a team that has a great starting five, a strong bench and a coach that inter-weaves his substitutions so that starters and bench players play quite a bit together.

The variables between teams for many advanced metrics are too great, IMO to rely on them solely as a tool for determining something like All-Defensive teams. For me, clearly the best defensive PF in the game this year has been Anderson Varejao. Kevin Garnett has taken a major step back and had too, too many night like these:

Washington 106 Boston 96

KG: 8 pts, 4 rebs, 0 blocks, 0 steals 3-12
Blatche 31 pts, 11 rebs, 2 blocks, 1 steal, 12-24

New York 104 Boston 101

KG: 14 pts, 4 rebs, 0 blocks, 1 steal, 7-12
Barron: 17 points, 18 rebs, 0 blocks 1 steal, 8-13

Houston 119 Boston 114

KG: 12 pts, 3 rebs, 0 blocks, 1 steal, 4-12
Scola: 27 pts, 11 rebs, 4 asts, 0 blocks, 1 steal, 11-22

This is when KG has been determined to be "healthy" and the stats show that he couldn't out rebound or hold his opponent down and that the other team went in the direction of KG's man to score. This is just a week's sample. Stats like this have littered the Celtics box scores all season long. I don't care what the advanced stats say, my eyes and some of the more simpler stats paint a vastly different picture regarding his defense.

And Rondo's defense this year has taken about three steps backwards and I just do not know what people are saying when they tout him as 1st team All-Defensive PG. And this coming from one of the biggest Rondo schills on this site.

  Some of the defensive numbers are also based on opposing player's stats when you're on the floor. I don't think Rondo's taken three steps back this year, I think he's improved. Doc, who's frequently critical of Rondo, seems to agree. And all three of the all-defense teams I've seen so far have had him first team. I think that this quote from the article pretty much sums up my feelings on the subject:

  "There's no way to stop quick point guards with the current rules limiting hand-checking on the perimeter, so every team's own fans are down on their team's point guard defense."

[jdpapa3]

David West 15-25 for 37 points.
Josh Smith 11-17 for 27 points.
Chris Bosh 8-11 for 23 points.
Jamison 8-17 for 27 points.
Rashard 6-11, 8-10, for 22 points.

The point is that those are statlines from the best Defensive season I have ever witnessed an individual player have (KG in 07-08). Everyone gets good games hung on them in this league.

[BballTim]

In some of the advance metric stats for defense in a lot of sports, I just don't agree with them. In basketball, those advanced defensive metrics rely quite a bit on on-off court stats. But if you are a team with a great starting five and a horrible bench and a coach that is in love with two distinctive teams of starters and subs, those on and off the court metrics are going to be very skewed in relation to a team that has a great starting five, a strong bench and a coach that inter-weaves his substitutions so that starters and bench players play quite a bit together.

The variables between teams for many advanced metrics are too great, IMO to rely on them solely as a tool for determining something like All-Defensive teams. For me, clearly the best defensive PF in the game this year has been Anderson Varejao. Kevin Garnett has taken a major step back and had too, too many night like these:

Washington 106 Boston 96

KG: 8 pts, 4 rebs, 0 blocks, 0 steals 3-12
Blatche 31 pts, 11 rebs, 2 blocks, 1 steal, 12-24

New York 104 Boston 101

KG: 14 pts, 4 rebs, 0 blocks, 1 steal, 7-12
Barron: 17 points, 18 rebs, 0 blocks 1 steal, 8-13

Houston 119 Boston 114

KG: 12 pts, 3 rebs, 0 blocks, 1 steal, 4-12
Scola: 27 pts, 11 rebs, 4 asts, 0 blocks, 1 steal, 11-22

This is when KG has been determined to be "healthy" and the stats show that he couldn't out rebound or hold his opponent down and that the other team went in the direction of KG's man to score. This is just a week's sample. Stats like this have littered the Celtics box scores all season long. I don't care what the advanced stats say, my eyes and some of the more simpler stats paint a vastly different picture regarding his defense.

And Rondo's defense this year has taken about three steps backwards and I just do not know what people are saying when they tout him as 1st team All-Defensive PG. And this coming from one of the biggest Rondo schills on this site.

Nick,

TP for pointing those players out. Yes they did in fact torch KG.

But none of them are playing past Wednesday. Their teams aren't going anywhere, no matter how bad they made KG look.

I'm not trying to make KG out to be All-World. But those three you named are few and far between, I think.

I've been as concerned about KG's health and decline as the next man.

But I don't want Anyone else on Beasly, Gasol, or Lewis in the playoffs...except KG.

When it matters, KG will be there.

Few and far between?

Utah 110 Boston 97

KG 10 pts, 3 rebs, 1 block, 0 steals, 5-9

Boozer 19 pts, 9 rebs, 2 blocks, 0 steals, 8-10

Cleveland 104 Boston 93

KG 18 pts, 7 rebs, 1 block, 1 steal, 5-11

Varajao 17 pts, 10 rebs, 1 block, 0 steals, 6-8
Jamison 15 pts, 12 rebs, 2 blocks, 0 steals, 6-17

Boston 86 Washington 83

KG 8 pts, 10 rebs, 0 blocks, 1 steal 0-7

Blatche 23 points, 9 rebs, 1 block, 1 steal, 10-20

Orlando 96, Boston 94


KG 6 pts, 7 rebs, 0 blocks, 2 steals, 2-8

Lewis 23 pts, 9 rebs, 0 blocks, 0 steals, 8-13

Boston 98, Portland 95

KG 13 pts, 4 rebs, 2 blocks, 0 steals, 4-9

Aldridge 19 pts, 10 rebs, 0 blocks, 0 steals, 7-18


Sorry GF but these type of stats that show that KG's direct opposition not only played well, but much better than KG and also took a bunch of shots as if they we going in KG's direction are not uncommon this year. Lest we forget there were some pretty obvious defensive failings on his part this year as well that cost the Celtics games. Jeff Green's two three pointers where KG was just too slow switching back to Green on the perimeter and that Rashard Lewis play where he just blew by KG and also Varejao's game against him where AV basically had his way with KG all day all come to mind.

I love KG. Really do. But I can not defend him as being an All-Defense 1st team member this year.

  A lot of those games were from when he was just coming back from injury. And it's worth pointing out that when KG is on the bench Sheed or Baby are guarding those guys, so it's probably not all on KG. Rondo's been ripped more than a few times because Collison had a big game against us when he did more damage in his limited minutes against Eddie. And I'd be willing to bet you could comb through the Cleveland box scores and see some big games for opposing power forwards.

[Chris]

Interesting.  And all the more reason to try to move KG to Center.  Even though he does not have the quickness to hang with some PF's, he still is an exceptional team defender.  If you put him against slower centers, he could really flourish, and it would allow you to bring in a quicker player to run around with the PF's.

The thing is, if you look at the names on my little cherry-picked list of shutouts, it would appear that KG has had some huge games against the smaller, perimeter-based PFs.  Dirk.  West.  Jamison.  Even Beasley.  He also tends to do well against guys like Bosh.  I'm not averse to him spending more time at center, but I'm not sure that the results back up your premise.

David West 15-25 for 37 points.
Josh Smith 11-17 for 27 points.
Chris Bosh 8-11 for 23 points.
Jamison 8-17 for 27 points.
Rashard 6-11, 8-10, for 22 points.

The point is that those are statlines from the best Defensive season I have ever witnessed an individual player have (KG in 07-08). Everyone gets good games hung on them in this league.

OK, now I'm confused

Seriously though, I don't think individual games by players KG covers is an accurate depiction, possitively or negatively.  The C's defense relies hugely on switches and team defense.  This is where KG excels.  Yes, he can still man guys up pretty well, but he has clearly lost a step in that regard, and it will only get worse.  But I don't expect his mind to go, where he forgets how to rotate.

[jdpapa3]

  But I don't expect his mind to go, where he forgets how to rotate.

Or his length. Uhhhh, that sounds bad.

[nickagneta]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

[Chris]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

I took that differently.  I think it as an "on the floor stat", kind of like +/- as in other teams score 25% less than their average when KG is on the floor. 

[nickagneta]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

I took that differently.  I think it as an "on the floor stat", kind of like +/- as in other teams score 25% less than their average when KG is on the floor. 

Then if that is the case wouldn't Ray Allen look like a defensive genius as well?

We all know those +/- stats and on floor/off floor stats are seriously flawed because they rely so much on other players and less so on a player's individual performances.

[BballTim]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

  I would to, but we don't have access to all of the stats. I remember in '08 that Danny made reference to KG holding the player he guarded to a fg% that was hugely below the norm, like .200 or so.

[Fafnir]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

I took that differently.  I think it as an "on the floor stat", kind of like +/- as in other teams score 25% less than their average when KG is on the floor. 

Then if that is the case wouldn't Ray Allen look like a defensive genius as well?

We all know those +/- stats and on floor/off floor stats are seriously flawed because they rely so much on other players and less so on a player's individual performances.

   * Team Defensive Rating
    * Individual Defensive Rating from the WARP system
    * Defensive WARP, which is the wins above replacement player that can be credited to a player's defense based on rebounding, blocks, steals and personal fouls.
    * Each of the above rates for individual defensive statistics.
    * Net defensive plus-minus, via BasketballValue.com.
    * dMult, my colleague Bradford Doolittle's estimate from box-score data of how opposing counterparts performed against the player relative to season-long averages, as available on the Basketball Prospectus player pages.

These are the stats he's using, so the 25% is based on dMult.

Ray Allen is around .95 from his player page.

[drza44]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

I took that differently.  I think it as an "on the floor stat", kind of like +/- as in other teams score 25% less than their average when KG is on the floor.  

From the article Pelton makes it clear that he's referencing specifically opponent's individual production against Garnett using a stat called 'dMult'.  Here is his quote:

"dMult, my colleague Bradford Doolittle's estimate from box-score data of how opposing counterparts performed against the player relative to season-long averages, as available on the Basketball Prospectus player pages."

ETA: Darn you, Fafnir!  Scooped again!  TP.

[nickagneta]

Well, gentlemen, don't be too surprised if after the coaches make their selections, KG isn't on the 1st team or 2nd team All-Defense teams.

I know, I know. They are just head coaches in the NBA, what do they know? Obviously they don't understand how all these advance metrics show that a guy that they all think is clearly not the best defender at his position anymore, clearly is.

 

[Fafnir]

Well, gentlemen, don't be too surprised if after the coaches make their selections, KG isn't on the 1st team or 2nd team All-Defense teams.

I know, I know. They are just head coaches in the NBA, what do they know? Obviously they don't understand how all these advance metrics show that a guy that they all think is clearly not the best defender at his position anymore, clearly is.

 

Kobe has made a ton of all defense teams, even during years when he couldn't have cared less about d-ing up his man.

All-defensive teams are just like all-star appearances, useful but not definitive.