Author Topic: Rondo and Garnett make the Basketball Prospectus All-Defensive First Team  (Read 10289 times)

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Offline The Walker Wiggle

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In a tradition that started four seasons ago at 82games.com, Kevin Pelton announces his All-Defensive team, leaning on statistics such as net defensive plus-minus and defensive wins above replacement player.

Rajon and KG both garner First Team honors.

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First Team - Rajon Rondo, Boston
Rondo's defense is far from universally adored in New England, though I think that might be representative of a trend I commented on last year during the playoffs (when Derrick Rose was, alas, torching Rondo): There's no way to stop quick point guards with the current rules limiting hand-checking on the perimeter, so every team's own fans are down on their team's point guard defense. Rondo can be burned when he gambles, but those risks also help him post the league's second-best steal percentage (only teammate Tony Allen is a superior ballhawk) and Rondo has held opposing point guards nearly 10 percent under their usual production. That adds up to a third First Team selection in as many years.

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First Team - Kevin Garnett, Boston
Yes, Garnett has lost a step. Yes, players can occasionally turn the corner on him defensively, which was unthinkable just two years ago. Still, Garnett had room to slip slightly while remaining among the league's better defenders. His numbers continue to put him at an elite level, and a Boston defense that ranks fourth in the league in per-possession scoring still relies heavily on Garnett's presence as a quarterback on defense. Opponents have been 25.0 percent less productive than usual against Garnett, tops among power forwards.

All Defensive First Team
PG Rajon Rondo
SG Thabo Sefolosha
SF Andrei Kirilenko
PF Kevin Garnett
C Dwight Howard

All Defensive Second Team
PG Brandon Jennings
SG Kobe Bryant
SF Gerald Wallace
PF Tim Duncan
C Andrew Bogut
« Last Edit: April 12, 2010, 11:25:21 PM by The Walker Wiggle »

Offline Roy Hobbs

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I hate to go against the company line, but KG absolutely doesn't belong anywhere near an all-defensive team this year.  He just hasn't been that good, and for many games this year, had noticeably lost a step.

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Offline jdpapa3

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I hate to go against the company line, but KG absolutely doesn't belong anywhere near an all-defensive team this year.  He just hasn't been that good, and for many games this year, had noticeably lost a step.

You are basically ignoring the numbers here and I feel a couple of bad nights have tainted your opinion of the situation because they looked so out of the ordinary for Garnett. I paid close attention to Garnett after that Rashard Lewis blowby vs Orlando in Orlando. And he still was elite for a majority of the season. Ray, Pierce, and Rondo allow penetration a good amount of the time and the great positioning of Garnett and Perkins allowed us to still remain near the top of the league in defensive efficiency all season.

It's no shock that we started to plummet in those ratings when KG went down for a 10 game stretch.

Offline The Walker Wiggle

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It does seem that the advanced metrics are much kinder to him than the naked eye. Garnett also makes John Schuhmann's All-Defensive First Team (again alongside Rondo...) which first and foremost considers a player's team's defensive efficiency while he is on the floor.

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Kevin Garnett - Boston Celtics (97.2)
The one defensive play by Garnett that stands out from this season is probably not one he'd like to be remembered for. Rashard Lewis drove baseline around Garnett for the game-winning bucket in the final seconds of the Magic's 96-94 win over the Celtics on Jan. 28 in Orlando, in front of a national TNT audience. For some observers, that play summarized how the Celtics have fallen off since they won the championship two years ago.

But Boston's problems are more about the other end of the floor. They're still an elite defensive team, and though his mobility has been limited, Garnett is still the biggest reason why. The Celtics have allowed just 97.2 points per 100 possessions with Garnett on the floor. That's the second lowest on-court efficiency in the league among players who have logged at least 1,200 minutes.

Offline Rondo_is_better

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Ehh....

Skill-wise, KG's maybe worthy of a 2nd team all defense nomination. But really, who are you gonna put above him at PF on the All-D team? He's the top defensive PF by default.
Grab a few boards, keep the TO's under 14, close out on shooters and we'll win.

Offline Roy Hobbs

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You are basically ignoring the numbers here and I feel a couple of bad nights have tainted your opinion of the situation because they looked so out of the ordinary for Garnett. 

Sure, I'm basically ignoring the numbers.  Defensive statistics aren't very reliable, and from observation over dozens of games -- rather than one or two -- I don't think KG was the defender he used to be.


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Offline The Walker Wiggle

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Sure, I'm basically ignoring the numbers.  Defensive statistics aren't very reliable, and from observation over dozens of games -- rather than one or two -- I don't think KG was the defender he used to be.

Can anyone convincingly argue that last point? But the fuzzy picture painted by advanced metrics does suggest that our guy has held more of his edge than I might've credited him for otherwise.

Cause for hope?


Offline jdpapa3

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You are basically ignoring the numbers here and I feel a couple of bad nights have tainted your opinion of the situation because they looked so out of the ordinary for Garnett.  

Sure, I'm basically ignoring the numbers.  Defensive statistics aren't very reliable, and from observation over dozens of games -- rather than one or two -- I don't think KG was the defender he used to be.



Right about not the defender he used to be. But the point is that he was still able to outperform most, if not all other PF's at the defensive end with his length and smarts. I wouldn't have argued with Varejao above him because of how he shows on on/off court D Ratings. KG still contributed to great defensive numbers and I thought he was working back into shape for about 15% of his games.

Defensive team stats can tell you a story when you know the other players he is playing with. I consider Perk to be above average at his position and Rondo to be above average at his position some nights. But thought Pierce was average and Ray below average. And I tended to agree with the conclusions that come from DMult that Pelton used to come up with his list.

Offline fairweatherfan

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Ehh....

Skill-wise, KG's maybe worthy of a 2nd team all defense nomination. But really, who are you gonna put above him at PF on the All-D team? He's the top defensive PF by default.

Good point - it's obvious that KG isn't the defender he once was, but who are you gonna put above him?  The 2nd team guy is Tim Duncan, who's basically in the same boat as KG in terms of aging. 

KG may have dropped off a bit, but he was well ahead of everyone else at his position.  Losing a step and still being the best at his position aren't mutually exclusive.

Offline The Walker Wiggle

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Ehh....

Skill-wise, KG's maybe worthy of a 2nd team all defense nomination. But really, who are you gonna put above him at PF on the All-D team? He's the top defensive PF by default.

Well Schuhmann gives Varejao Second Team honors.

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Anderson Varejao - Cleveland Cavaliers (98.5)
Varejao ranks third in the league in raw plus-minus. The other players in the top five are James, Howard, Bryant and Deron Williams, all of whom have the ball in their hands a lot more than Varejao does. He ranks sixth in the league in on-court defensive efficiency and the Cavs rank third in defending low-post bigs.

Pelton also likes Josh Smith.

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Josh Smith, Atlanta: There's an argument to be made that Smith belongs atop the group of power forwards. In terms of defensive WARP, that's where he would go. Smith's defensive versatility was neatly encapsulated by Hollinger, who noted that he is the tallest player in the league's top 10 in steals and the shortest in the top 10 in blocks. Smith isn't quite as good as an individual defender and the Hawks' middle-of-the-road Defensive Rating also holds him back. Still, the difference between Garnett and Smith is negligible.

Fun aside - The role player that both single out for recognition is Nick Collison, he leads the league in charges drawn and posts a terrific +7.9 net defensive plus-minus. Who knew?

Offline The Walker Wiggle

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There is at least one statistician taking the other side of the argument. While John Hollinger also gives the nod to apparent consensus All-Defensive First Team selection Rajon Rondo...

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Rajon Rondo, Boston (-2.20)
Rondo remains the cream of the crop when it comes to defending the point guard position in spite of a propensity for gambling that sometimes drives Boston coach Doc Rivers crazy. He's the main reason the Celtics are so good at forcing turnovers, leading the league in steals and using his young legs to save Boston's aging core from a serious speed disadvantage. As an added plus, his arms are so long that he can switch to face bigger guards with relative ease.

...he overlooks Garnett entirely, giving the First Team award to Anderson Varejao, the Second Team award to Josh Smith, and a Third Team award to Luc Richard Mbah a Moute.

Offline GreenFaith1819

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Thanks for the post, Walker Wiggle.

Nice to hear someone outside of Celtics Fans seeing the worth of our players. Really nice write-up here.

When I first saw it, I thought "How in the World does KG make this list?" But now I understand it.

I am slowly learning that there are more things to Defense than being ranked among league leaders in blocks or steals. This is part of KG's "It" factor that Poster drza44 and others have mentioned here.

It's for this reason why I'll take KG in the condition he is in right now - 80-90% - match him up against Rashard Lewis, Gasol, Beasley, you name it. I feel comfortable that KG will get the job done, somehow. He won't stop them, but he'll slow them down. That's all we need, especially over a Seven Game series, with no back-to-backs.

Congrats to Both of them.

Offline jdpapa3

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The problem is that it looks like KG started dragging his leg a few weeks ago and the defense also happened to fall apart at the same time. Not a coincidence. Hopefully it is just fatigue and this rest and the rest between playoff games will be enough for him to get back to the strength where he has been for 75% of this season.

Offline jr_3421

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I'm surprised to see Brandon Jennings get the 2nd team nod. I guess it's by default because I can't think of any starting defensive minded PGs other than Rondo.

Too bad Perk didn't get 2nd team. Bogut deserves it though. He was a beast on both ends when we played them.
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Offline Who

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I would have Russell Westbrook in the first team and no point guard on the second team. So no Rondo on either team.

Not sure where I fall on Garnett. Need to put some more thought on it. His defense has fallen off but for most of the season he was still very good-to-excellent defensively and still solid-to-good defensively the rest of the time with the exception of a few games here and there. So he has a pretty good case but not a lock

I have three certainties out of the four big man spots -- Dwight Howard + Andrew Bogut + Anderson Varejao -- I'm not sure who I'd give that final big man spot too though. Or one could just go with a combo forward like Mbah a Moute or Gerald Wallace as their PF.

Anyway, Garnett is clearly in the race but I'm not sure if he makes the final cut.