Rondo and Garnett make the Basketball Prospectus All-Defensive First Team

[Donoghus]

I have no problem with Rondo here but kinda scratching my head on KG here.  He's clearly a step slower and not the beast we've been accustomed to in the past.  I haven't watched him this year and told myself "Man, he's locking people down" and the such.  I think 1st team's a bit of a stretch here.  Despite a considerable fall from where he's been in the past, he still falls onto the 1st team?  I have a tough time buying that.

[Fafnir]

I have no problem with Rondo here but kinda scratching my head on KG here.  He's clearly a step slower and not the beast we've been accustomed to in the past.  I haven't watched him this year and told myself "Man, he's locking people down" and the such.  I think 1st team's a bit of a stretch here.  Despite a considerable fall from where he's been in the past, he still falls onto the 1st team?  I have a tough time buying that.

True, but the second team is Tim Duncan who's also a lot slower.

I think both players are hurt in our perceptions because they used to be what Dwight Howard is now. They're no longer at that level, but still very good. Additionally both struggle to stay consistently healthy and fresh, so they have games where they look great and others where they are dragging.

[BballTim]

Well, gentlemen, don't be too surprised if after the coaches make their selections, KG isn't on the 1st team or 2nd team All-Defense teams.

I know, I know. They are just head coaches in the NBA, what do they know? Obviously they don't understand how all these advance metrics show that a guy that they all think is clearly not the best defender at his position anymore, clearly is.

 

  First of all, you're gloating about something that hasn't happened yet. Secondly, even if those coaches agree with you about KG, it's fairly likely that they won't agree with your assessment of Rondo.

[Roy Hobbs]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

I took that differently.  I think it as an "on the floor stat", kind of like +/- as in other teams score 25% less than their average when KG is on the floor. 

Then if that is the case wouldn't Ray Allen look like a defensive genius as well?

We all know those +/- stats and on floor/off floor stats are seriously flawed because they rely so much on other players and less so on a player's individual performances.

   * Team Defensive Rating
    * Individual Defensive Rating from the WARP system
    * Defensive WARP, which is the wins above replacement player that can be credited to a player's defense based on rebounding, blocks, steals and personal fouls.
    * Each of the above rates for individual defensive statistics.
    * Net defensive plus-minus, via BasketballValue.com.
    * dMult, my colleague Bradford Doolittle's estimate from box-score data of how opposing counterparts performed against the player relative to season-long averages, as available on the Basketball Prospectus player pages.

These are the stats he's using, so the 25% is based on dMult.

Ray Allen is around .95 from his player page.

On first blush, I'm very skeptical of this statistic.  It suggests that KG was *significantly* better defensively this year than he was last year.  Does that make sense to any of us who have watched the games?

[nickagneta]

Well, gentlemen, don't be too surprised if after the coaches make their selections, KG isn't on the 1st team or 2nd team All-Defense teams.

I know, I know. They are just head coaches in the NBA, what do they know? Obviously they don't understand how all these advance metrics show that a guy that they all think is clearly not the best defender at his position anymore, clearly is.

 

  First of all, you're gloating about something that hasn't happened yet. Secondly, even if those coaches agree with you about KG, it's fairly likely that they won't agree with your assessment of Rondo.

I never inferred that the coaches were better judges of talent than me, just better judges of talent than those advanced metrics.

 

[Donoghus]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

I took that differently.  I think it as an "on the floor stat", kind of like +/- as in other teams score 25% less than their average when KG is on the floor. 

Then if that is the case wouldn't Ray Allen look like a defensive genius as well?

We all know those +/- stats and on floor/off floor stats are seriously flawed because they rely so much on other players and less so on a player's individual performances.

   * Team Defensive Rating
    * Individual Defensive Rating from the WARP system
    * Defensive WARP, which is the wins above replacement player that can be credited to a player's defense based on rebounding, blocks, steals and personal fouls.
    * Each of the above rates for individual defensive statistics.
    * Net defensive plus-minus, via BasketballValue.com.
    * dMult, my colleague Bradford Doolittle's estimate from box-score data of how opposing counterparts performed against the player relative to season-long averages, as available on the Basketball Prospectus player pages.

These are the stats he's using, so the 25% is based on dMult.

Ray Allen is around .95 from his player page.

On first blush, I'm very skeptical of this statistic.  It suggests that KG was *significantly* better defensively this year than he was last year.  Does that make sense to any of us who have watched the games?

It really doesn't make any sense at all.

[jdpapa3]

Well, gentlemen, don't be too surprised if after the coaches make their selections, KG isn't on the 1st team or 2nd team All-Defense teams.

I know, I know. They are just head coaches in the NBA, what do they know? Obviously they don't understand how all these advance metrics show that a guy that they all think is clearly not the best defender at his position anymore, clearly is.

 

Kobe has made a ton of all defense teams, even during years when he couldn't have cared less about d-ing up his man.

All-defensive teams are just like all-star appearances, useful but not definitive.

[dang], beat me to the response. Even used my same example. The dMult passes the eye test for a lot of other things I have researched, but certainly the KG 09 vs KG 10 comparison looks off.

You do have to question why KG looks so great on so many different advanced statistical metrics. And why the Celtics are a top defensive team this season. 

[Fafnir]

Well, gentlemen, don't be too surprised if after the coaches make their selections, KG isn't on the 1st team or 2nd team All-Defense teams.

I know, I know. They are just head coaches in the NBA, what do they know? Obviously they don't understand how all these advance metrics show that a guy that they all think is clearly not the best defender at his position anymore, clearly is.

 

Kobe has made a ton of all defense teams, even during years when he couldn't have cared less about d-ing up his man.

All-defensive teams are just like all-star appearances, useful but not definitive.

[dang], beat me to the response. Even used my same example. The dMult passes the eye test for a lot of other things I have researched, but certainly the KG 09 vs KG 10 comparison looks off.

You do have to question why KG looks so great on so many different advanced statistical metrics. And why the Celtics are a top defensive team this season. 

My guess is that its a relatively noisy metric. Its looking that the production of PFs for 82 games while KG was on the floor.

2008-2009 had a lot fewer data points and his "comeback" attempts weren't good defensive performance from what I recall. So that'd add even more noise.

[BballTim]

I would love to see the stats compiled that showed KG holding opposing PFs to 25% less than the norm, whatever that means.

I took that differently.  I think it as an "on the floor stat", kind of like +/- as in other teams score 25% less than their average when KG is on the floor. 

Then if that is the case wouldn't Ray Allen look like a defensive genius as well?

We all know those +/- stats and on floor/off floor stats are seriously flawed because they rely so much on other players and less so on a player's individual performances.

   * Team Defensive Rating
    * Individual Defensive Rating from the WARP system
    * Defensive WARP, which is the wins above replacement player that can be credited to a player's defense based on rebounding, blocks, steals and personal fouls.
    * Each of the above rates for individual defensive statistics.
    * Net defensive plus-minus, via BasketballValue.com.
    * dMult, my colleague Bradford Doolittle's estimate from box-score data of how opposing counterparts performed against the player relative to season-long averages, as available on the Basketball Prospectus player pages.

These are the stats he's using, so the 25% is based on dMult.

Ray Allen is around .95 from his player page.

On first blush, I'm very skeptical of this statistic.  It suggests that KG was *significantly* better defensively this year than he was last year.  Does that make sense to any of us who have watched the games?

  He's only better by certain metrics. His dRating was worse. One possible explanation is, oddly enough, a lack of mobility. If he's not doing as well at roaming and help defense then it's possible that he's spending more time on *his* man, and therefore limiting that player's production.

[Fafnir]

 He's only better by certain metrics. His dRating was worse. One possible explanation is, oddly enough, a lack of mobility. If he's not doing as well at roaming and help defense then it's possible that he's spending more time on *his* man, and therefore limiting that player's production.

That could be also true, he's playing a different style of defense. Remember earlier in the year he kept overplaying too hard and he was unable to recover. He changed his approach to better suit what he can do now, (most of the time).

[BballTim]

Well, gentlemen, don't be too surprised if after the coaches make their selections, KG isn't on the 1st team or 2nd team All-Defense teams.

I know, I know. They are just head coaches in the NBA, what do they know? Obviously they don't understand how all these advance metrics show that a guy that they all think is clearly not the best defender at his position anymore, clearly is.

 

  First of all, you're gloating about something that hasn't happened yet. Secondly, even if those coaches agree with you about KG, it's fairly likely that they won't agree with your assessment of Rondo.

I never inferred that the coaches were better judges of talent than me, just better judges of talent than those advanced metrics.

 

  I think that whoever they vote for would likely come from the list supplied (TD, AV or Josh Smith) and I think that most of the all-defense team will come from that list.

  Look at the team we have, though. Paul's been slowed by injury since Xmas. Ray's defense was a big reason people wanted to trade him. People haven't been happy with Perk's play on either end of the floor for two months or so. Baby's defense hasn't been all world. Sheed's hasn't been good either. Eddie and Nate haven't been doing much on that end of the court. You don't think much of KG's defense and you claim that Rondo's significantly worse than last year.

  Yet, despite all of this, as well as visual evidence to the contrary, the Celts have spent the bulk of the season with the best or second best defense in the league. Who's play is responsible for that?

[Jaycelt]

  Tonight sums up exactly how I feel about any defense award for Rondo.....a joke.