I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.
A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?
Me thinks not.
His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production drop off.
Why would you compare 45 to 21? He can still get a contract after this one.
Why not sign a contract for $1 a year for 100 million years? 100 > 21!
It also isn't clear that any team would pay him 15m for 3 years at this point in his career.
It's just the point that he could have a career altering injury or simply fall off in production. The 100 mil argument you just said is just ridiculous. Sorry if I'm being realistic because if I'm his agent and I see that new CBA coming up, you can bet for [dang] sure what my recommendation is going to be.
And the 45>21 is just the lay of the land in this situation. 45 is forty five mil in the hand. 21 plus whatever he might "expect" after this season is a major risk.
Maybe the Spurs overpaid Manu, but Pierce is more of a sure thing. He has been more durable and they are the same age. 3/40 will likely be the minimum.
And I think this could turn into the Big 3 disintegrating faster than anyone thought as it relates to this roster. I don't see Ainge locking into a Pierce deal like that with that CBA cloud lurking over head.
I agree with this. I think Pierce will be the one looking for $45 million per year, because he knows he could be missing out on money if he waits until next year.
I also agree that Ainge might not bite on that, since it would likely tie his hands more in 2012, and could devastate them depending on the how the new CBA comes out.
The other factor of course is the luxury tax. If Pierce did take a 3/$45 million deal, it would save ownership about $12 million this season, because of the luxury tax. That money may allow them to loosen the purse-strings in other areas this season, to allow Danny to do something else, either with the MLE, or with a sign and trade.
No matter what, this is going to be a very interesting summer. While I have a hard time seeing it make the future of the franchise, there will be a lot of opportunities to set the franchise back several years, if Danny makes the wrong call.