Could the Celtics be broken up if they get bounced in the first round?

[FallGuy]

Hard to imagine them getting bounced in the first round. I would think a second round exit is more likely. Either way Ainge will make some changes. I would

3- Trade Rondo for a legit power forward.(Bosh,Boozer,Amare in a package with Rasheed or Baby either trade or sign and trade)   Rondo is the team best trade assest unfortunetly his defense is poor and it puts alot of pressure on the back line to cover for him and they simply cannont do it. Its understandable that Rondo cant defend bigger stronger guards like Billups and D Will but if he cant stop guys like Brooks and Collison then who can he defend?

Rondo's a very good defensive PG who takes nights off. But largely - he balances his gambling for steals with keeping his man in front of him. He's also BYC which means we're not gonna trade him until at least next summer. Which is not as ridiculous as it sounds. Let's see how next year goes.

[FallGuy]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

[jdpapa3]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production dropoff.

[Chris]

I think Danny will consider "breaking up" the nucleus of the team, even if they don't get bounced early.  I think Danny has been looking at options to reload for at least the last year.  The thing is, the right option needs to be there.

Danny is not the type of GM who will decide "OK, we need to make a big move now", and then pull the trigger on anything.  He is generally very patient, and waits for the "right" deal.  It worked out with the KG/Allen deals, but it is also very risky as well.

I think Danny is absolutely fine with waiting this out, seeing what comes of the new CBA, and then starting over with cap space in 2012, but I also think he always has his ears open for good deals.

If someone approached him this summer, and offered an expiring contract, and some nice young building blocks for Garnett, I am sure he would jump at it.  Just like he would have jumped at the right deal for Ray at the deadline.  

But I see no way that they will have a fire-sale, where they just collect expiring contracts, or overpaid guys, just to "blow it up".  It's just not Danny's style.

I do expect him to look to shake things up a bit though, and try to turn some of the guys into some more valuable assets to build around (Perk and Davis are probably going to be shopped pretty hard this summer).

co-sign

also, Ray will be shopped via S&T (though the market will be small and the return will likely be bad contracts)

Sheed should be offered to anyone and everyone - how will he respond to those rumors when he comes back next year because we couldn't get rid of him? yikes

Rondo stays, Pierce re-ups

KG could be moved but only in a panic move, so I think Danny will hang on

To me, other than Perk, the most interesting player to watch this offseason will be Pierce.  Not that I think he will opt out and leave, but whether he will get an extension this summer.

I think if Pierce does not sign an extension this summer, he could be taking a big risk with the new CBA coming up...but I also am not sure how much Danny wants to resign him to a non-bargain basement deal right now.

If he does not sign an extension this summer, I could definitely see Pierce getting sqeezed next season under the new CBA, and possibly even leaving.

[FallGuy]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production dropoff.

Well, I hope he doesn't opt out.

But there's a difference between PP and Manu. Manu's been one of the best players in the league since the all-star break. Pierce has struggled as much as he's played well. And as much as PP means to the Celtics, I think Manu means more to the people in San Antonio.

All of this may just be me hoping we don't resign him to a new deal this offseason...

[guava_wrench]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production drop off.

Why would you compare 45 to 21? He can still get a contract after this one.

Why not sign a contract for $1 a year for 100 million years? 100 > 21!

It also isn't clear that any team would pay him 15m for 3 years at this point in his career.

[clover]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production drop off.

Why would you compare 45 to 21? He can still get a contract after this one.

Why not sign a contract for $1 a year for 100 million years? 100 > 21!

It also isn't clear that any team would pay him 15m for 3 years at this point in his career.

Pierce isn't getting $45M, not in this environment.

[BballTim]

Hard to imagine them getting bounced in the first round. I would think a second round exit is more likely. Either way Ainge will make some changes. I would

1- Let Doc go.  Docs a great guy but he has not got the job done this year. I would like to see them bring in JVG if possible.

2-Get rid of Rasheed any way possible. Rasheed+beloved Celtics= epic fail see any of the many Rasheed threads in the forum.

3- Trade Rondo for a legit power forward.(Bosh,Boozer,Amare in a package with Rasheed or Baby either trade or sign and trade)   Rondo is the team best trade assest unfortunetly his defense is poor and it puts alot of pressure on the back line to cover for him and they simply cannont do it. Its understandable that Rondo cant defend bigger stronger guards like Billups and D Will but if he cant stop guys like Brooks and Collison then who can he defend?

4- Resign Ray. Ray is not the problem its Docs emphasis on playing team ball even when the team is not performing. If Ray got the touches other premier shooting guards get(Kobe,Wade)he would be putting up huge numbers. Look what happened when they went away from Ray in the Easter Day game. The offense should be running thru Ray every game.

5- Resign Perkins. Who plays Dwight Howard better than Perkins?

  So you want to trade Rondo, who might make the all-defense team again, because his defense is so bad, but you also want to re-sign Ray? Wow.

[Mr October]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production dropoff.

Pierce is probably worth about what Ginobili is... similar talent compared to his position, similar age, similar relatively OK but beat up health. Pierce is probably worth $39/3.

If he holds onto his 21 million deal, he can get another good deal after wards. He can still probably get 24/2 or 13/1 plus another 10 or so the next year.

[Chris]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production dropoff.

Pierce is probably worth about what Ginobili is... similar talent compared to his position, similar age, similar relatively OK but beat up health. Pierce is probably worth $39/3.

If he holds onto his 21 million deal, he can get another good deal after wards. He can still probably get 24/2 or 13/1 plus another 10 or so the next year.

Possibly.  It all depends on the new CBA.  If there is a hard cap, or they cut down max contracts, he could be squeezed next summer.

While I think they would be similar value on the floor (although Pierce has been more durable), Pierce's option this summer gives him a lot more leverage than Ginobili had.  I think Pierce can argue that he is worth what Ginobili got after NEXT season, but that should be added on top of his $21 million.  So Pierce could make a strong argument for a 3-year $45 million deal if he opts out. 

[FatjohnReturns]

Hard to imagine them getting bounced in the first round. I would think a second round exit is more likely. Either way Ainge will make some changes. I would

1- Let Doc go.  Docs a great guy but he has not got the job done this year. I would like to see them bring in JVG if possible.

2-Get rid of Rasheed any way possible. Rasheed+beloved Celtics= epic fail see any of the many Rasheed threads in the forum.

3- Trade Rondo for a legit power forward.(Bosh,Boozer,Amare in a package with Rasheed or Baby either trade or sign and trade)   Rondo is the team best trade assest unfortunetly his defense is poor and it puts alot of pressure on the back line to cover for him and they simply cannont do it. Its understandable that Rondo cant defend bigger stronger guards like Billups and D Will but if he cant stop guys like Brooks and Collison then who can he defend?

4- Resign Ray. Ray is not the problem its Docs emphasis on playing team ball even when the team is not performing. If Ray got the touches other premier shooting guards get(Kobe,Wade)he would be putting up huge numbers. Look what happened when they went away from Ray in the Easter Day game. The offense should be running thru Ray every game.

5- Resign Perkins. Who plays Dwight Howard better than Perkins?

  So you want to trade Rondo, who might make the all-defense team again, because his defense is so bad, but you also want to re-sign Ray? Wow.

He is killing the back line defense with all the gambles. If he makes the all defensive team it will only be for his steals total.
Watch the press conference after he breaks the single season record.
KG doesnt sound too impressed.

[jdpapa3]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production drop off.

Why would you compare 45 to 21? He can still get a contract after this one.

Why not sign a contract for $1 a year for 100 million years? 100 > 21!

It also isn't clear that any team would pay him 15m for 3 years at this point in his career.

It's just the point that he could have a career altering injury or simply fall off in production. The 100 mil argument you just said is just ridiculous. Sorry if I'm being realistic because if I'm his agent and I see that new CBA coming up, you can bet for [dang] sure what my recommendation is going to be.

And the 45>21 is just the lay of the land in this situation. 45 is forty five mil in the hand. 21 plus whatever he might "expect" after this season is a major risk.

Maybe the Spurs overpaid Manu, but Pierce is more of a sure thing. He has been more durable and they are the same age. 3/40 will likely be the minimum.

And I think this could turn into the Big 3 disintegrating faster than anyone thought as it relates to this roster. I don't see Ainge locking into a Pierce deal like that with that CBA cloud lurking over head.

[BballTim]

Hard to imagine them getting bounced in the first round. I would think a second round exit is more likely. Either way Ainge will make some changes. I would

1- Let Doc go.  Docs a great guy but he has not got the job done this year. I would like to see them bring in JVG if possible.

2-Get rid of Rasheed any way possible. Rasheed+beloved Celtics= epic fail see any of the many Rasheed threads in the forum.

3- Trade Rondo for a legit power forward.(Bosh,Boozer,Amare in a package with Rasheed or Baby either trade or sign and trade)   Rondo is the team best trade assest unfortunetly his defense is poor and it puts alot of pressure on the back line to cover for him and they simply cannont do it. Its understandable that Rondo cant defend bigger stronger guards like Billups and D Will but if he cant stop guys like Brooks and Collison then who can he defend?

4- Resign Ray. Ray is not the problem its Docs emphasis on playing team ball even when the team is not performing. If Ray got the touches other premier shooting guards get(Kobe,Wade)he would be putting up huge numbers. Look what happened when they went away from Ray in the Easter Day game. The offense should be running thru Ray every game.

5- Resign Perkins. Who plays Dwight Howard better than Perkins?

  So you want to trade Rondo, who might make the all-defense team again, because his defense is so bad, but you also want to re-sign Ray? Wow.

He is killing the back line defense with all the gambles. If he makes the all defensive team it will only be for his steals total.
Watch the press conference after he breaks the single season record.
KG doesnt sound too impressed.

  Rondo didn't sound too impressed either. And when the opposing pgs get inot the lane it's much more likely to be from a pick than Rondo gambling.

  They have production by opponents per 48 minutes for all the players on 82games.com. I checked a week or so ago and out of all the starting pgs Rondo was top 8-10 in fewest fg attempts and points allowed, was 5th or so in rebounding differential, allowed the fewest assists and forced the most turnovers. His assist/turnover ratio frequently approaches double what he allows and he scores over 50% more from the inside than his opponents do.

[Chris]

I've pondered this a bit and after seeing what Kobe and Manu just got, why the heck wouldn't Pierce opt out? He is a lock to secure more than 21 mil in a contract.

A lock to get more than 21M/per year in a multi-year contract?

Me thinks not.

His value is still high after seeing what Manu got. He won't get 21/year, but he could still get 15/year for 3 years and 45>21. It's protecting himself against an injury and/or production drop off.

Why would you compare 45 to 21? He can still get a contract after this one.

Why not sign a contract for $1 a year for 100 million years? 100 > 21!

It also isn't clear that any team would pay him 15m for 3 years at this point in his career.

It's just the point that he could have a career altering injury or simply fall off in production. The 100 mil argument you just said is just ridiculous. Sorry if I'm being realistic because if I'm his agent and I see that new CBA coming up, you can bet for [dang] sure what my recommendation is going to be.

And the 45>21 is just the lay of the land in this situation. 45 is forty five mil in the hand. 21 plus whatever he might "expect" after this season is a major risk.

Maybe the Spurs overpaid Manu, but Pierce is more of a sure thing. He has been more durable and they are the same age. 3/40 will likely be the minimum.

And I think this could turn into the Big 3 disintegrating faster than anyone thought as it relates to this roster. I don't see Ainge locking into a Pierce deal like that with that CBA cloud lurking over head.

I agree with this.  I think Pierce will be the one looking for $45 million per year, because he knows he could be missing out on money if he waits until next year.

I also agree that Ainge might not bite on that, since it would likely tie his hands more in 2012, and could devastate them depending on the how the new CBA comes out.

The other factor of course is the luxury tax.  If Pierce did take a 3/$45 million deal, it would save ownership about $12 million this season, because of the luxury tax.  That money may allow them to loosen the purse-strings in other areas this season, to allow Danny to do something else, either with the MLE, or with a sign and trade. 

No matter what, this is going to be a very interesting summer.  While I have a hard time seeing it make the future of the franchise, there will be a lot of opportunities to set the franchise back several years, if Danny makes the wrong call.

[FatjohnReturns]

Hard to imagine them getting bounced in the first round. I would think a second round exit is more likely. Either way Ainge will make some changes. I would

1- Let Doc go.  Docs a great guy but he has not got the job done this year. I would like to see them bring in JVG if possible.

2-Get rid of Rasheed any way possible. Rasheed+beloved Celtics= epic fail see any of the many Rasheed threads in the forum.

3- Trade Rondo for a legit power forward.(Bosh,Boozer,Amare in a package with Rasheed or Baby either trade or sign and trade)   Rondo is the team best trade assest unfortunetly his defense is poor and it puts alot of pressure on the back line to cover for him and they simply cannont do it. Its understandable that Rondo cant defend bigger stronger guards like Billups and D Will but if he cant stop guys like Brooks and Collison then who can he defend?

4- Resign Ray. Ray is not the problem its Docs emphasis on playing team ball even when the team is not performing. If Ray got the touches other premier shooting guards get(Kobe,Wade)he would be putting up huge numbers. Look what happened when they went away from Ray in the Easter Day game. The offense should be running thru Ray every game.

5- Resign Perkins. Who plays Dwight Howard better than Perkins?

  So you want to trade Rondo, who might make the all-defense team again, because his defense is so bad, but you also want to re-sign Ray? Wow.

He is killing the back line defense with all the gambles. If he makes the all defensive team it will only be for his steals total.
Watch the press conference after he breaks the single season record.
KG doesnt sound too impressed.

  Rondo didn't sound too impressed either. And when the opposing pgs get inot the lane it's much more likely to be from a pick than Rondo gambling.

  They have production by opponents per 48 minutes for all the players on 82games.com. I checked a week or so ago and out of all the starting pgs Rondo was top 8-10 in fewest fg attempts and points allowed, was 5th or so in rebounding differential, allowed the fewest assists and forced the most turnovers. His assist/turnover ratio frequently approaches double what he allows and he scores over 50% more from the inside than his opponents do.

I never said Rondo wasnt a good player I just think his gambeling combined with decreased lateral movement from the bigs is a huge problem. He just isnt the right player for the group of veterans we have.

Now his value is high its a great time to trade him for a legit Power Forward. If we could get a Bosh or Boozer sign and trade then all you really need is a point guard who can defend and doesnt turn the ball over. You resign Ray and run the offense thru Pierce,Ray,
KG, Bosh whoever. Without a LEGIT upgrade on the frontline we are toast next year going forward.