Formulas for building a championship team

[Mr October]

The KG vs Duncan thread got me thinking about the difference between a contending team and a championship team.

To get straight to the point this is about building a championship winning team - not just a contender, not just a consistent 45-55 win team. The goal is to win championships, and with 30 teams it is a long shot to do this.

The formulas are extremely simple and sobering. You have to have the best players. Not coaches, mind you.... players.

1. All-Decade Center

This is ideal. Since the beginning of the NBA, the team with the best  (or second best center of their decade), won the NBA title at least 35 times.

Mikan, Russel, Chamberlain, Jabbar, (Reed, Cowens, Unseld, Walton - take your pick for 1 or 2 titles each), Moses Malone, Olajuwon, Shaq and Duncan. Thats 35+ NBA titles.

2. All NBA 1st teamer surrounded with other All NBA or All defense talent:

Jordan, Bird, Rick Barry, Bob Petit, Kobe Bryant etc. These types of superstars mixed with the super Center teams account for every NBA championship in NBA history except for 4.

I'm going to take 2 more away because although Isaiah Thomas was not a first teamer at the time of his teams' 2 titles, he was still an all NBA talent, and not to far removed from 3 all NBA 1st team selections.

That leaves 2 teams.

3. Get lucky with a talented collection of star players - this accounts for only the 2 remaining teams. Two teams across over more than half a century.

1979 Seattle Sonics - defensive team led by Dennis Johnson, Jack Sickma and Gus Williams
2004 Detroit Pistons - defensive team led by Ben Wallace, Chauncey Billups and Rasheed Wallace

These 2 teams played great defense, and were in the right place at the right time. No one will ever confuse them with being one of the best teams of all time. Nonetheless, they were excellent and managed to grab the title for a year.

...so, In order to increase your chances, you've got to go get an all-decade great big man or a perennial All NBA 1st team player, and surround them with excellent talent.

How do I get them? Rarely can you trade for one of these types of players. And if you do, there has to be some irreparable frustrating damage left in their wake. For example: Shaq, Garnett (the only 2 recent names to lead or co-lead to a title after a trade), Nash, Barkley, Webber, Iverson, Kidd, T-Mac, Mourning and so on.

Usually once a superstar is drafted (or picked up on a draft trade), they do not change teams (at least while in their prime). For example: Bird, Magic, Olajuwon, Ewing, Thomas, Jordan, K Malone, Stockton, Pippen, Robinson, Payton, Shaq, Duncan, Kobe, Nowitzki, James, Wade, Howard, Garnett (KG was only traded just after his prime).

That means the most common way to start the foundation of a title team is to get lucky in the draft.

Whats the point of all this Mr October? Well, when it is time to dismantle this Celtics team, I want to strip it down to only desirable assets (Rondo, Perkins), and swing for the fences in free agency or in the draft.

I don't want to see the Celtics try to get the next Kevin Martin, Andre Iguodala or Ben Gordon (and there has been a lot of talk about trying to get borderline stars swapped in for our borderline stars). I want to see the Celtics try to get the next great big man. I certainly don't want to see a mediocre decade of 35-45 wins.

All or nothing.

Right now the Celtics are too darn close to getting it all. Lets go get this thing!!!

And then in a year or 2, when it is time to strip the team down, the team needs to swing for the fences. Get a Superstar or keep trying. Never settle for mediocrity.

I'd like to hear your thoughts on this post, on how to build an NBA champion, and especially one in Boston.

[PosImpos]

Great wing scorer +
great rebounder / post scorer +
great passer / playmaker (or multiple good ones) +
a lot of solid role players who can play good defense

you get those elements together you have a top contender


I agree that our primary goal heading into the next decade should be to acquire a great big man and hold onto him.  these days, great centers are rarer than ever; if you can get one, you already have the biggest piece necessary for a contender.

that's why teams like the Bucks and the Nets should feel really good about their future regardless of their current circumstances; both those teams could be top contenders in a few years if their GMs are smart, simply because they have highly talented young centers capable of dominance

[wdleehi]

Want a sure contender, get one of the era's top 3 big men and then just fill in players that fit him on the outside. 



If you can't get that, get a top 10 big man and one of the top 3 non-big man. 



There are to few examples of teams doing it any other way.  (Jordon) 

[hwangjini_1]

...
That means the most common way to start the foundation of a title team is to get lucky in the draft.

...

I want to see the Celtics try to get the next great big man. I certainly don't want to see a mediocre decade of 35-45 wins.

 Never settle for mediocrity.

thanks for starting a very interesting thread mr o. though the way in which teams can build has changed (free agency plays a role today. it did not do so long, long ago) the key is to get the best talent available to make a superior team. not just talent but a team.

your point that acquiring 2nd tier talent is not enough is a good one.

from what you write, it seems to me you are advocating for the celtics to (1) hit it big in the draft, or, (2) hit it big in free agency, or (3) both.

honestly, route #1 does not excite me. i look at the way the ping pong balls did in the celtics with duncan and durant and have no faith in that avenue.

that pretty much leaves free agency. but the trouble is that for the next 2 to 3 years, the celtics are financially strapped due to existing contracts.

am i incorrect on this one?

the team has rondo and perkins, both good complementary players for super stars, but neither will likely be able to carry the team to a championship. they need a a significant supporting cast.

specifically, in addition to the bench bodies they now have, the celtics need some combo of:
- an all nba wing/shooting guard.
- an all nba power forward (somebody has to be able to score down low)
- at least 2 stellar defensive players who can also do some scoring.

the last one is not hard to do. but the first 2? free agency seems the only way to go.

so, do any posters wish to explain the odds of the celtics picking up one of THE top free agents in the next 2-4 years?

[More Banners]

Nice work.  Enjoy another TP for:

Pointing out that championship teams are NOT built around a point guard!

Makes sense, since the PG should probably not be the primary scorer (a la Philly's Iverson heyday), and someone needs to clean the glass (probably not the 6'1" guy...).

Some thoughts:

I'm not looking forward to the roller-coaster of perpetually hearing PR BS from the C's, talking about the 'potential' of their latest Gerald Green-type prospect in the draft, or suffering through the losing seasons that lead to higher picks.

Looking back, there were quite a few really good teams that would've won in certain years, if not for some random injury or the freakish luck of some opponent.  I guess that means I would rather take my chances with a sure-contender than break it up altogether trying to find the one piece (that might tear an ACL and ruin hopes anyway).  I think we see that letting it ride on Greg Oden is a pretty risky strategy, even if a top-level center is critical...

No reasoning here, just a few thoughts.

[Mr October]

I like hearing the following in these replies:

-great player
-top 3 player

The realistic key in all of this is that you need a player who dominates at his position.

No Ben Gordons, Iguodalas, Kevin Martins, even Rajon Rondos. These are complimentary borderline all stars. You need a complentary stars to help the superstar. But ya gotta do everything possible to find the superstar first.

[Who]

Different Cores

(1) MVP caliber player + good supporting cast

(2) Two MVP caliber players

(3) MVP + All-NBA caliber player

(4) Two All-NBA players + All-Star player

(5) One All-NBA player + one perennial All-Star + one All-Star

(6) One All-NBA + two All-Stars + borderline All-Star

(7) Two Perennial All-Stars + three borderline All-Stars + deep bench

Examples

(1) LeBron's Cavs

(2 + 3) Shaq + Kobe or Jordan + Pippen

(4) 2008 Celtics

(5) Chris Paul/Deron Williams + Joe Johnson + Andrew Bynum

(6) Chris Paul/Deron Williams + Danny Granger + Josh Smith + Al Horford

(7) 2004 Pistons

[Mr October]

Here's my immediate timeline:

current team - roster is locked and this playoff run will tell us a lot about this team's ability to still contend.

Assuming the Celtics do well or even take the whole thing:
2010-11
Bring back Ray Allen, and for the right price: Tony, Marquis, Nate.
Spend the MLE on a scoring 6th man. Ideally (although a very long shot) a Mike Miller type.

Try to get the title in 2011

2011-12 The C's are already committed to KG and Sheed's last year and possibly another year with Ray and Paul, not to mention Rondo and the unnamed MLE player from the summer of 2010; there will be no free agency cap space to get an impact player. If you can get anything decent in return (ie draft picks, or legitimately appealing prospects), then you need to move any of the old guys. But admittedly by then it is probably too late.

In 2012, I see the C's riding out a final mediocre year with the big 3.... but then in the summer you need to aggressively chase the next big star.

And if you can't get a big star, only sign moveable contracts/assets. Everything needs to be about flexiblity so that you can try again in 2013.

Meanwhile a team built around Rondo, Perkins, that unnamed Mike Miller type will be lucky to win 30 games. The C's will land hard in ping pong land, like it or not.

From here the C's need to combine drafting smartly for the best player available, and pursue only the top free agents.

If the C's suck it up, and implode this spring:
...then it is time to blow up the team as soon as possible. And again only trade for draft picks and legit quality desirable/movable assets.
I don't want any borderline stars making max money!!

Without any cap space, and after trading aged stars away, the C's will hit lottery land sooner. If KG can be traded, than you can hit free agency in 2011 - you never know who will get desperate and take on a big bad contract (like what has happened with Shaq or Jamison - essentially a desperate-Cleveland kind of situation, could help).

With the future of ping pong balls and dicey free agent prospects ahead, I personally hope that the C's have an excellent showing this year and come back and go for it again in 2011.

[Mr October]

Different Cores

(1) MVP caliber player + good supporting cast

(2) Two MVP caliber players

(3) MVP + All-NBA caliber player

(4) Two All-NBA players + All-Star player

(5) One All-NBA player + one perennial All-Star + one All-Star

(6) One All-NBA + two All-Stars + borderline All-Star

(7) Two Perennial All-Stars + three borderline All-Stars + deep bench

Examples

(1) LeBron's Cavs

(2 + 3) Shaq + Kobe or Jordan + Pippen

(4) 2008 Celtics

(5) Chris Paul/Deron Williams + Joe Johnson + Andrew Bynum

(6) Chris Paul/Deron Williams + Danny Granger + Josh Smith + Al Horford

(7) 2004 Pistons

I agree with 1-2-3
And in the case of 4 (your example of the 2008 Celtics, KG was still considered MVP-calibur.)

However The examples of 5 and 6 look an awful lot like 7. I'd take Billups, Big Ben, SHeed, Hamilton, Prince, Okur over the 5 and 6 teams any day. Even then, you need to have everything go right so that you can sneak a title. Again this has only happened twice in the history of the NBA (1979 Sonics, 2004 Pistons).

Other than that you have to have MVP calibur players - ie perennial All NBA FIRST team superstars, and then pair them with more star talent.

Even Lebron is going to need a former MVP (SHaq) and former all stars (Williams, Jamison), if he is going to get the ring this year.

[More Banners]

I think (hope) it is possible to win a la 79 sonics and 04 Pistons, with a roster that is very good at each position, has depth, and works incredibly well together.  For that to happen, I think the coach becomes a factor, Lenny Wilkins in 79, and Larry Brown in 04.  They were an important part of getting top performance out of their respective rosters.

This may be important, since although (as pointed out) MVP-level talents rarely change teams, borderline stars often do, and often in the $10 million range.  If a GM could put together a team of those level of talents, with a top-level coach, it COULD work, and it would be easier/more likely to put together (from where we are now) than having an MVP fall into our lap.

I suppose this is the theory that supports a Rondo/Perk/Doc Rivers foundation for the future, or the continued viability of the current roster for another 2 years...

[Mr October]

Nice work.  Enjoy another TP for:

Pointing out that championship teams are NOT built around a point guard!

Makes sense, since the PG should probably not be the primary scorer (a la Philly's Iverson heyday), and someone needs to clean the glass (probably not the 6'1" guy...).

Some thoughts:

I'm not looking forward to the roller-coaster of perpetually hearing PR BS from the C's, talking about the 'potential' of their latest Gerald Green-type prospect in the draft, or suffering through the losing seasons that lead to higher picks.

Looking back, there were quite a few really good teams that would've won in certain years, if not for some random injury or the freakish luck of some opponent.  I guess that means I would rather take my chances with a sure-contender than break it up altogether trying to find the one piece (that might tear an ACL and ruin hopes anyway).  I think we see that letting it ride on Greg Oden is a pretty risky strategy, even if a top-level center is critical...

No reasoning here, just a few thoughts.

Only the Pistons managed to build winners around small point guards. It is do-able. But you need beasts in the front court like Rodman, Laimbeer, Mahorn, Big Ben, Sheed - not to mention killer scoring help on the wings.

But, yeah, building around a small PG is a long shot. Look how quickly the Hornets imploded, or how inconsistent the Jazz are on the road - despite Paul and Williams's brilliance.

Actually that 1979 Sonics team featured Dennis Johnson. So its do-able, but rare.

Meanwhile no bones for Jason Kidd, Steve Nash, Gary Payton (as a core rotation player), Allen Iverson, Mark Price, John Stockton, Tim Hardaway.

[TitleMaster]

'79 Sonics also had Paul Silas, the C's forgotten rebounding machine vis-a-vis defense stopper extraordinare.

[KCattheStripe]

I like hearing the following in these replies:

-great player
-top 3 player

The realistic key in all of this is that you need a player who dominates at his position.

No Ben Gordons, Iguodalas, Kevin Martins, even Rajon Rondos. These are complimentary borderline all stars. You need a complentary stars to help the superstar. But ya gotta do everything possible to find the superstar first.

Rondo is going to be a perpetual all star and can absolutely be the number 2 option behind a great big man.

[Mr October]

I think (hope) it is possible to win a la 79 sonics and 04 Pistons, with a roster that is very good at each position, has depth, and works incredibly well together.  For that to happen, I think the coach becomes a factor, Lenny Wilkins in 79, and Larry Brown in 04.  They were an important part of getting top performance out of their respective rosters.

This may be important, since although (as pointed out) MVP-level talents rarely change teams, borderline stars often do, and often in the $10 million range.  If a GM could put together a team of those level of talents, with a top-level coach, it COULD work, and it would be easier/more likely to put together (from where we are now) than having an MVP fall into our lap.

I suppose this is the theory that supports a Rondo/Perk/Doc Rivers foundation for the future, or the continued viability of the current roster for another 2 years...

Sure it can work. The C's would have to sneak a title when the big powers are in a transition state - the Cowens/Jabbar/Moses Malone/ Walton teams... or the Shaq/Duncan teams.... or what comes next... the James Knicks teams maybe?

Even still Rondo would have to improve his scoring ability to at least  Payton / Kidd level and the C's would have to find 2 more legit perennial all nba types (even 2nd or 3rd team) to run with him - 1 of which would have to be a dominant big man who would own the paint on either offense or defense.

[Mr October]

I like hearing the following in these replies:

-great player
-top 3 player

The realistic key in all of this is that you need a player who dominates at his position.

No Ben Gordons, Iguodalas, Kevin Martins, even Rajon Rondos. These are complimentary borderline all stars. You need a complentary stars to help the superstar. But ya gotta do everything possible to find the superstar first.

Rondo is going to be a perpetual all star and can absolutely be the number 2 option behind a great big man.

We can only hope. But until he gets his outside shot as dangerous as Parker/Payton/Kidd, he's going to be considered a borderline all star.

It took Kidd, Payton and Parker 4-5 years to establish their scoring game, and become somewhat respected from the outside.

Rondo is exiting his 4th season. Soon We'll have to call Rondo what he is, whatever that maybe in this next year and a half.