Despite the struggles, who is still confident? A much needed All-Star break

[drza44]

I know it may sound absurd to many but I still like this team and feel it can win the championship this season.

The blown leads, lack of rebounding, second half collapses, etc, are still unacceptable, frustrating to death, mind-boggling, etc, but I still feel good about our current team.

I think the break will do a lot of good to the Celtics, sometimes you struggle and know what your problems are but you can't fix until you get some break, some rest. It looks to me like the Celtics were (consciously or not) waiting for the break in these past few weeks.

Not making excuses for them, of course, their recent level of play is an abomination and inexcusable.

KG's health and Pierce's health will be key to our potential success, but I really think they will get better.

There are still a lot of positive things we've seen in the last few games... well, at least the bench is starting to get back to its early season level of play and that's a good thing. Marquis' return has been a big boost and Sheed spent 95% of his time in the post in the last game, with much success.

What I am saying is that, once again, the talent and all the pieces are here and finally we have all our players healthy. Well, Kevin and Paul are clearly more about 60% than 100%, but if they get better, I don't see why we couldn't get back to our early season form.

Our biggest problem has been our offense. Turnovers and poor shots, lack of ball movement are really due to a lack of focus, not of talent or due to age. Defensive struggles would be more worrisome because it would mean we don't have the "legs" to defend anymore but that's not the case.

The problem is physical for two of our Big Three, but mostly mental and a question of focus for the whole team.

Seeing Sheed going into the post on almost every possession he got the ball last night makes it clear that the team will probably get it going and change its attitude after the break.

It may sound silly to assume the team will get back on track because Sheed got back in the post but he is the perfect "barometer" of the team in my opinion. The guy is known for doing what he wants his entire career but after disastrous performances he finally accepted to use his strength for the good of the Celtics. This tells me that we will turn it on - hopefully just after the break.

No need for a big trade, Ray must stay a Celtic. Bringing another player won't suddenly cure all our problems and change the whole mentality or sloppiness of the team.

The break and a little more focus will do wonders in my opinion. Who is with me?

You know I'm with you.  TP

[rondohondo]

I really find curious the dynamic currently going on in this board... you guys mock all the different fans from different teams for the particular behavior that is going on in here. I had the impression that we were supposed to be the better fans, but we're behaving like complete losers.

How are we being complete losers? Its clear KG can't jump or move laterally, I think we are just being realistic.

[WeMadeIt17]

I myself am cautiously Optimistic about this team, just like I would be if i were a fan of a team that was the 6th seed saying "You Never Know what could happen" But I finally said it last night right now I just dont think this team can win a championship. KG looks really gimpy while he runs hard. Pierce falls over every time he attempts a quick move. Ray has no lift in his jumper what so ever. Sheed looks good one night and then the next you would enjoy smacking him in the face. So what i am saying is trade Ray for something quick and can shoot, because what is the point of holding on that contract till it expires? Its not going to push us over the top for a Max contract, so might as well get something for it.  

[Jon]

I'm not sure I'm confident, but I'm cautiously optimistic.  People on board act like the last time this team was good was two years ago, when in reality it was closer to two months ago. 

What's happened since then?  A lot of injuries to an older team. 

It now finally seems like they're getting healthy.  And I know people like to "not make excuses," but if Ray was healthy last night, this team probably wins the game. 

I think we owe it to this group to keep things intact.  It'd be one thing if they were 100% healthy and losing these games, but we've yet to see the entire 9 man rotation completely healthy this entire season.  Let's see what they can do. 

[ssspence]

I really find curious the dynamic currently going on in this board... you guys mock all the different fans from different teams for the particular behavior that is going on in here. I had the impression that we were supposed to be the better fans, but we're behaving like complete losers.

I think it's fair as a fan to be genuinely scared by the current state of affairs, especially considering the Cs handcuffed financial position over the next few years. I go into each game wanting to see the Cs of a couple of years ago or even last year, but it's been a while since I've seen them.

Regardless of fandom, let's look in the mirror at some impartial truths.

This is a bad offensive team. A number of guys have fallen off in unison, and Rondo is at his best when he has scoring and shooting around him. They've looked totally overmatched by good defenses of late. They turn the ball over at an enormously frustrating rate. They dribble far too much and don't move off the ball like they used to. Daniels looked great last night; he may need to get significantly more minutes for this team to compete.

The team has also lost its defensive identity. Guys in the paint. Guys getting where they want. No rotation. Lay-ups. Open 3s. Celtics standing around looking at each other quizzically while the other team high fives back to the defensive end. Best defensive team ever? No.

The Celtics are not a good rebounding team. I don't think I need to go into much detail here. They're a poor rebounding team. They're in the bottom half of the league in offensive rebounding, though they shoot a pretty high percentage, and they take less shots than many teams (in part because of their ridiculous rate of turnovers), so I feel a bit better about that until the next step. They are last in the league in defensive rebounding. Last. Last is pretty bad.

I think it's fair for a fan to be concerned. I'm not comfortable blindly putting faith in a turnaround. Of course I'm hoping for it. But why can't the appropriate questions be asked about how this team is going to make adjustments? Why are the Cs pounding the ball into the floor so much? Is it because they don’t have the speed or athleticism to move off the ball like they used to? What are the Celtics going to do to take better care of the ball while increasing the motion of their offense? Can they? What are they going to do to rebound the ball better and improve their weak side rotations? Can they? When are they going to hit somebody coming down the lane?

The Cs are not going to be able to drink from a fountain of youth / health. They're going to continue to deal with some level of injury and fatigue. So what actual adjustments are going to be made? It's fair for a fan to ask, and I'd be curious to hear ideas from other fans. A trade may be part of it, but it can't be all of it.

[vinnie]

I continue to be puzzled about how those questioning this team are complete losers because we don't have blind faith. This team has lost more double-digit leads in the second half of games than any team in the NBA -- and that is just for starters. There is someone new injured every other game and it seems to take forever for the older guys to come back from injuries. They are 9-13 in their last 22 games after a 23-5 start. I am quite sure that 99 percent of those on this blog/forum want the Celtics to win. However, a large percentage also have seen with their own eyes that this team is a long shot at best. That doesn't make me or them, losers or bad fans. In my opinion, there are a lot more legtimate reasons to say that things have to chagne drastically than there are to say this team is going to win the championship.

[jdpapa3]

I think it's way too early to say that "kg is done" because we are not knee doctors or surgeons. And KG's health is the difference maker: he improves and we're contenders; he never does and this baby is done. But he looked the same in October and improved to the point where we could win a championship by December. I am working under the impression that the same thing will happen this time around. He does look better on back to backs and that has to be a telltale sign that it is not a mechanical issue.

And the people throwing the minutes around: Kobe has the same amount of NBA games under his belt. I don't see people digging his grave just yet.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Concern is one thing... what is going on in this forum with all the "sky is falling" threads and the likes is a completely different matter. It's quite obvious we aren't were we're supposed to be, but the pathetic exaggeration that is going around here just screams of a loser attitude, an attitude that we constantly make fun of other teams'fans having.

Again, we're supposed to be better than that instead of crying like little babies for each and every minor crap.

And for every "just being realistic", there's a lot of taking taking facts out of context.

"KG isn't who he used to be!" Well, duh... it doesn't mean he'll be at the same level once the playoffs come around. There should be at least the expectation or at least the allowance of KG improving as the season comes along. He just missed quite a few games due to another injury, let's give him time to get back on his feet. If it doesn't happen, it doesn't happen... but making it out to be that he's completely done is just foolish.

Wasn't it two years ago, a year ago, a couple of months ago that a ton of people were saying that Tony was done with the NBA that he wasn't worth my jock strap? And now a ton of people are singing his praises. People please. Injuries happen, and players do need their time to recover and get into proper rhythm. Is it a certainty that it will happen? Of course not, but KG being the caliber of the player that he is, and having the history that he has, is it so much out of the question that he should improve by quite a good margin as the season progresses?

[vinnie]

Concern is one thing... what is going on in this forum with all the "sky is falling" threads and the likes is a completely different matter. It's quite obvious we aren't were we're supposed to be, but the pathetic exaggeration that is going around here just screams of a loser attitude, an attitude that we constantly make fun of other teams'fans having.

Again, we're supposed to be better than that instead of crying like little babies for each and every minor crap.

That is the reason these forums exist. For everyone to post their opinions.

[BudweiserCeltic]

Concern is one thing... what is going on in this forum with all the "sky is falling" threads and the likes is a completely different matter. It's quite obvious we aren't were we're supposed to be, but the pathetic exaggeration that is going around here just screams of a loser attitude, an attitude that we constantly make fun of other teams'fans having.

Again, we're supposed to be better than that instead of crying like little babies for each and every minor crap.

That is the reason these forums exist. For everyone to post their opinions.

Zero problems with people posting their opinions, I'm simply saying that I like to think that Celtics fans are above the attitudes we mock fans from other teams for having. Else, why make fun of them? We're just making fun of ourselves. In fact, the attitudes we complain about how the Celtics are currently playing quite parallels the attitude of many of the fans here... so why expect better from them if we aren't behaving better ourselves?

[celticsclay]

I have not given up on the team. I think there is a chance they could just turn it on come the playoffs. Perhaps the players felt after their fast couple of starts and the injuries that have happened it is time to coast. (I know doc doesn't feel this way). So maybe we will see that hunger and drive return come playoff time. I should note this is not the only time teams have ever done this think old Lakers teams from early 2000's and even sometimes the spurs in their title runs. ....

[RonnieG]

We got what we wanted with "The big 3" now it's time to move on and look towards our future because this doesn't look like the year.

[sk7326]

I'm not sure I'm confident, but I'm cautiously optimistic.  People on board act like the last time this team was good was two years ago, when in reality it was closer to two months ago. 

What's happened since then?  A lot of injuries to an older team. 

It now finally seems like they're getting healthy.  And I know people like to "not make excuses," but if Ray was healthy last night, this team probably wins the game. 

I think we owe it to this group to keep things intact.  It'd be one thing if they were 100% healthy and losing these games, but we've yet to see the entire 9 man rotation completely healthy this entire season.  Let's see what they can do. 

Team needs a break.  I think the confidence level one has depends on your ability to think they can get healthy, like we'll snap our fingers, and these old players will suddenly get well.  That and their key frontcourt sub has been lousy in a way that we did not anticipate.  

The team can defend harder - that performance against Orlando on Xmas or the opener against Cleveland is still something to work towards.  However, Ray has been a poor 3 point shooter for 80% of this season - Eddie has been streaky but less good than he was a year ago.

Really if you want to break down where things have slipped between 2008 and 2010, look at it by possession (per 100 possessions):

In 2008 - we averaged 107.6 pts per 100 possessions, in 2010 we average 104.9 ... we allowed 96.2 in 2008, 99.0 now.  Both of the latter numbers are #1 in the league, but 2008 we were an all time great defensive team.  Now just in a fairly close cohort with OKC, CHA, ORL, LAL, CLE.

Let's put it this way.  In 2008, we were almost 3 points per 100 possessions better than the 2nd best defensive team.  Now, that margin separates the Celtics at #1 and 8th place.  So that is a 2.8 point slip.

Offensively in 2008 we averaged 107.6 pts per 100, in 2010 we average 104.9 ... from 10th in the league to 14th.  So we have lost 2.7 points there.  A net loss overall of 5.5 points (given the average NBA team averages a shade south of 100 possessions a game this is a reasonable estimate).

So where has the slippage been?

DEFENSE: In 2008, led the league in FG% defense (41.9%), 3PT defense, were 8th in defensive rebounding and led the league in turnovers forced ... and that offset our propensity to commit a lot of defensive fouls (22nd in the league).  

In 2010, slippage across the board, 6th in FG defense, 5th in 3PT defense, 12th in defensive rebounding, 2nd in turnovers forced ... and still commit a lot of fouls (21st)

OFFENSE: In 2008, 4th in the league in FG%, 5th in three point shooting and 6th in getting to the line, which made up for 17th in offensive rebounding and 29th in turnovers

In 2010, still shooting well overall (4th in the league) but down to 16th in three point shooting, 8th at getting to the line (though more Perk and Rondo trips) ... slipped to last in offensive rebounding, still 29th in turnovers

Put simply the team on offense's big problem is poor three point shooting, and an inability to grab those misses ... everything else is not that dissimilar ... is the slippage permanent or a temporary slump, who knows.  But that slippage, accompanied by slippage in defense, gives a sense of permanence to some of the problems.

[Birdbrain]

Concern is one thing... what is going on in this forum with all the "sky is falling" threads and the likes is a completely different matter. It's quite obvious we aren't were we're supposed to be, but the pathetic exaggeration that is going around here just screams of a loser attitude, an attitude that we constantly make fun of other teams'fans having.

Again, we're supposed to be better than that instead of crying like little babies for each and every minor crap.

That is the reason these forums exist. For everyone to post their opinions.

Zero problems with people posting their opinions, I'm simply saying that I like to think that Celtics fans are above the attitudes we mock fans from other teams for having. Else, why make fun of them? We're just making fun of ourselves. In fact, the attitudes we complain about how the Celtics are currently playing quite parallels the attitude of many of the fans here... so why expect better from them if we aren't behaving better ourselves?

I follow your point and it's a bit disconcerting to say the least. Not unexpected mind you just disconcerting.  As soon I saw some had posted they would take Durant over 2007 I knew we were in for a bumpy (lakers/fakers) ride.

[yupitsme]

We sound like Spurs fans when they lost it. This current team will not win a Championship, it will not happen. This couple day break does nothing, we will probably win the first game back and then go back on the roller coaster. a ride that's not going to be fun. The truth really does hurt.