The Sox are officially after Adrian Gonzalez

[Redz]

and the fact that he's a bum

Lowell's OPS+ the last 4 years
104/124/103/106

Beltres OPS+ the last 4 years
105/112/108/82

Beltre was better two  of the four years, last year clearly seems to be the fluke year, where he was hurt most of the year. Beltre is 5 years younger than Lowell, while being MUCH, MUCH better defensively. Lowell is definately the better hitter, but you put Beltre in Fenway his numbers would look much better than they do. He isnt worth the crazy 13 million Boras is asking for, but for 8-10 a year over 3 years id think he is worth it. But a bum? Hardly

I still get stuck on him having a career year with the Dodgers and signing for big bucks with Seattle then sucking. 

[Big_Matt34]

I still get stuck on him having a career year with the Dodgers and signing for big bucks with Seattle then sucking. 

Oh no arguement here, that contract was a joke and he got way overpaid, but you could do much worse at 3B than him.

I don't know how Boras can even argue for Beltre to get 13 million a year though, he actually said Beltre was a better offensive player than Jason Bay.

[Redz]

I still get stuck on him having a career year with the Dodgers and signing for big bucks with Seattle then sucking. 

Oh no arguement here, that contract was a joke and he got way overpaid, but you could do much worse at 3B than him.

But having looked at his #'s closer perhaps my memory is a little skewed.

[Donoghus]

My biggest fear since I first read about the Sox interest in Beltre was that Epstein would overpay for him.  Still a concern of mine.

I am against overpaying for him too, but what would you think a fair deal is for Beltre? Id be ok with anything between 8-10 million a year for 3 years, 4 would be pushing it. He is still only 30, and his age is legit as there was an investigation when the Dodgers signed him when he was 15. A left side of him and Scutaro defensively would be the best there is, and i think offensively he'd hit 25-30 homers here while hitting his usual .270.

I think he's a lackluster talent at best and I don't think his glove combined with his offense is enough to justify $10 million a year for even 3 years in my book.  He's coming off an injury year and is already at that "30" mark.  I've never been enamored of him in the past and nothing has really changed. 

[nickagneta]

and the fact that he's a bum

Lowell's OPS+ the last 4 years
104/124/103/106

Beltres OPS+ the last 4 years
105/112/108/82

Beltre was better two  of the four years, last year clearly seems to be the fluke year, where he was hurt most of the year. Beltre is 5 years younger than Lowell, while being MUCH, MUCH better defensively. Lowell is definately the better hitter, but you put Beltre in Fenway his numbers would look much better than they do. He isnt worth the crazy 13 million Boras is asking for, but for 8-10 a year over 3 years id think he is worth it. But a bum? Hardly

I don't know how you can say that Beltre is MUCH MUCH better defensively than Lowell. They were both hurt last year so I won't go through the process of comparing those numbers but the two years before that, when Beltre won the Gold Glove, Lowell's numbers across the board were as good if not better than Beltre's with the exception of range and even then Lowell's numbers were excellent. Over the last five years, it could be argued Lowell's defensive numbers are better.

Now that doesn't mean that Lowell is going to be a good defensive third baseman from this point on but Beltre during the time you were discussing was not a MUCH MUCH better defensive player than Lowell.

[Big_Matt34]

I don't know how you can say that Beltre is MUCH MUCH better defensively than Lowell. They were both hurt last year so I won't go through the process of comparing those numbers but the two years before that, when Beltre won the Gold Glove, Lowell's numbers across the board were as good if not better than Beltre's with the exception of range and even then Lowell's numbers were excellent. Over the last five years, it could be argued Lowell's defensive numbers are better.

Now that doesn't mean that Lowell is going to be a good defensive third baseman from this point on but Beltre during the time you were discussing was not a MUCH MUCH better defensive player than Lowell.

Well when i said he is much, much better defensively, it was right after i said he is 5 year younger and was talking about right now. Before the hip Lowell was a vacuum, not the greatest range but he caught everything he could get to, but last year he went from some range to absolutely none. Beltre on the other hand still has alot of range, and catches everything hit to him.

Could have been a little clearer about it i guess, but i strictly meant he is much better now, and for the future.

[nickagneta]

I don't know how you can say that Beltre is MUCH MUCH better defensively than Lowell. They were both hurt last year so I won't go through the process of comparing those numbers but the two years before that, when Beltre won the Gold Glove, Lowell's numbers across the board were as good if not better than Beltre's with the exception of range and even then Lowell's numbers were excellent. Over the last five years, it could be argued Lowell's defensive numbers are better.

Now that doesn't mean that Lowell is going to be a good defensive third baseman from this point on but Beltre during the time you were discussing was not a MUCH MUCH better defensive player than Lowell.

Well when i said he is much, much better defensively, it was right after i said he is 5 year younger and was talking about right now. Before the hip Lowell was a vacuum, not the greatest range but he caught everything he could get to, but last year he went from some range to absolutely none. Beltre on the other hand still has alot of range, and catches everything hit to him.

Could have been a little clearer about it i guess, but i strictly meant he is much better now, and for the future.

That makes sense. Though, knowing what I am told about Lowell from people that know him personally, I would not rule out his returning to third and being a very good defender once again. The Sox aren't sold on his going forward and being a good defensive third baseman, but friends of Mike's say he is moving very well this winter and that the thumb is the bigger concern right now.

[Jon]

With Lackey here, I'd be willing to give up Buc and some big prospects.  However, I'd really like to keep Jacoby.  Clay may be something special; however, the Sox will always have money to get more big name pitching down the road.  Plus, there's worse thing than Wakefield as the 5th starter.  Ellsbury fills a big need both this year and in the future and I'm not sure they'll fully take advantage of how good this team can be this year without him here. 

[winsomme]

I'd give up either of these packages, Buchholz/Kelly/Redick/Lin or Ellsbury/Redick/Kelly.

Westmoreland is the prospect i want them to keep, and he is supposedly borderline untouchable. He is their best position prospect since Hanley and has that type of talent, scouts absolutely LOVE him. While he was drafted out of HS he is extremely polished for his age, playing against kids 2/3 years older last year he had a .885 OPS, walked a ton, and stole 19 bases without being caught.

I like Ellsbury but id give him up, A-Gon is exactly what we need and he makes next to no money the next 2 years. Can just move Cameron to CF, and sign a LF like Nady. Cameron would just be a stopgap until someone like Kalish is ready, which shouldnt be too far off as he put up a .940 OPS in AA the 2nd half of last year.

A-Gon is a big bat for sure, but I don't know I'd say he is exactly what we need. I think Cabrera is exactly what we need. He hits for power and average and IMO that is the type of elite bat we need. A-Gon doesn't have a high batting average and that's in the NL...

Cabrera has shown he can hit AL pitching.

I don't have a problem with the Sox overpaying for big bat, but I'd prefer that we go after the truly elite bat in Cabrera. He also would keep Youk at his gold glove position.

Ellsbury/Buch/etc for Cabrera. That's the deal I would love to see go down.

[Roy Hobbs]

I'd give up either of these packages, Buchholz/Kelly/Redick/Lin or Ellsbury/Redick/Kelly.

Westmoreland is the prospect i want them to keep, and he is supposedly borderline untouchable. He is their best position prospect since Hanley and has that type of talent, scouts absolutely LOVE him. While he was drafted out of HS he is extremely polished for his age, playing against kids 2/3 years older last year he had a .885 OPS, walked a ton, and stole 19 bases without being caught.

I like Ellsbury but id give him up, A-Gon is exactly what we need and he makes next to no money the next 2 years. Can just move Cameron to CF, and sign a LF like Nady. Cameron would just be a stopgap until someone like Kalish is ready, which shouldnt be too far off as he put up a .940 OPS in AA the 2nd half of last year.

A-Gon is a big bat for sure, but I don't know I'd say he is exactly what we need. I think Cabrera is exactly what we need. He hits for power and average and IMO that is the type of elite bat we need. A-Gon doesn't have a high batting average and that's in the NL...

Cabrera has shown he can hit AL pitching.

I don't have a problem with the Sox overpaying for big bat, but I'd prefer that we go after the truly elite bat in Cabrera. He also would keep Youk at his gold glove position.

Ellsbury/Buch/etc for Cabrera. That's the deal I would love to see go down.

Batting average only gets you so far; Gonzalez had a higher on base percentage and a higher slugging percentage (and thus a better OPS).  He's also a better fielder, and is cost controlled for two seasons.  Also, he's less of a headache.

[winsomme]

I'd give up either of these packages, Buchholz/Kelly/Redick/Lin or Ellsbury/Redick/Kelly.

Westmoreland is the prospect i want them to keep, and he is supposedly borderline untouchable. He is their best position prospect since Hanley and has that type of talent, scouts absolutely LOVE him. While he was drafted out of HS he is extremely polished for his age, playing against kids 2/3 years older last year he had a .885 OPS, walked a ton, and stole 19 bases without being caught.

I like Ellsbury but id give him up, A-Gon is exactly what we need and he makes next to no money the next 2 years. Can just move Cameron to CF, and sign a LF like Nady. Cameron would just be a stopgap until someone like Kalish is ready, which shouldnt be too far off as he put up a .940 OPS in AA the 2nd half of last year.

A-Gon is a big bat for sure, but I don't know I'd say he is exactly what we need. I think Cabrera is exactly what we need. He hits for power and average and IMO that is the type of elite bat we need. A-Gon doesn't have a high batting average and that's in the NL...

Cabrera has shown he can hit AL pitching.

I don't have a problem with the Sox overpaying for big bat, but I'd prefer that we go after the truly elite bat in Cabrera. He also would keep Youk at his gold glove position.

Ellsbury/Buch/etc for Cabrera. That's the deal I would love to see go down.

Batting average only gets you so far; Gonzalez had a higher on base percentage and a higher slugging percentage (and thus a better OPS).  He's also a better fielder, and is cost controlled for two seasons.  Also, he's less of a headache.

I think BA is the lost stat these days. I think it makes a truly elite hitter...one that hits for power and average.

guys that can't actually hit for average scare me....especially when it's in the NL.

On baseball terms I'd much rather Cabrera. different class of hitter IMO. Cabrera is a top 5 hitter in this league.

Plus, keeping Youk at first should be a priority.

[winsomme]

I guess I would also sum it up like this. If you're not going to go after a truly elite bat like Cabrera, then IMO just sign Bay.

he's in the same ballpark as A-Gon and then you keep your prospects.

but that said, I would overpay to get Cabrera (or Mauer or Hanley).

Any way you slice it, however, they need another big bat for sure. so I guess I wouldn't be too upset with A-Gon. maybe he would blossom into a truly elite hitter in Boston.

[Roy Hobbs]

I guess I would also sum it up like this. If you're not going to go after a truly elite bat like Cabrera, then IMO just sign Bay.

he's in the same ballpark as A-Gon and then you keep your prospects.

but that said, I would overpay to get Cabrera (or Mauer or Hanley).

Any way you slice it, however, they need another big bat for sure. so I guess I wouldn't be too upset with A-Gon. maybe he would blossom into a truly elite hitter in Boston.

I think you're really underselling Gonzalez.  He was 7th in all of baseball in terms of OPS, despite playing in a pitcher's park.  He's also a very good fielder.

[Big_Matt34]

Gonzalez hit .306 on the road, and .244 at home. He did that in a garbage lineup where he saw next to no good pitches to hit. He put up an OPS+ of 166, Cabrera put up an OPS+ of 142, Jason Bay put up an OPS+ of 134, OPS+ is more reliable than BA or OPS because it takes where the player plays into consideration, but even without that he still had a better OPS than Cabrera. A-Gon is the best hitter of the three, makes next to no money the next two years, is a GG first basemen, and has a swing made for Fenway, he would hit .300 with 45 HR here. The term perfect fit comes to mind and he supposedly wants to come here if he is to be dealt, but the Padres will want a ton because theres no incentive to deal him.

Also, Miguel Cabrera is a first basemen now, he is too out of shape to play 3rd, so Youkilis would have to move to 3rd if they got him too. Cabrera also makes a ton of money, and ontop of his conditioning problems there are questions about his character. If the Sox are going to deplete the farm system, id prefer A-Gon to Cabrera by a fair amount.

[winsomme]

Gonzalez hit .306 on the road, and .244 at home. He did that in a garbage lineup where he saw next to no good pitches to hit. He put up an OPS+ of 166, Cabrera put up an OPS+ of 142, Jason Bay put up an OPS+ of 134, OPS+ is more reliable than BA or OPS because it takes where the player plays into consideration, but even without that he still had a better OPS than Cabrera. A-Gon is the best hitter of the three, makes next to no money the next two years, is a GG first basemen, and has a swing made for Fenway, he would hit .300 with 45 HR here. The term perfect fit comes to mind and he supposedly wants to come here if he is to be dealt, but the Padres will want a ton because theres no incentive to deal him.

Also, Miguel Cabrera is a first basemen now, he is too out of shape to play 3rd, so Youkilis would have to move to 3rd if they got him too. Cabrera also makes a ton of money, and ontop of his conditioning problems there are questions about his character. If the Sox are going to deplete the farm system, id prefer A-Gon to Cabrera by a fair amount.

yeah, don't agree. OPS needs to be looked at in conjunction with BA IMO. The truly elite hitters hit for both average and power.

Also, it's a lot easier to walk A-Gon with that line-up which artificially boosts his OBP.

Cabrera is the elite hitter. you said it all with A-Gons home .244 BA and that's in the NL.

And the career numbers aren't even close.

Plus, Cabrera's 26. He can still play 3B.