Breaking down the East:
Toronto Raptors (Rondo2287) Andre Miller, Francisco Garcia, Ron Artest, Kevin Garnett, Marcus Camby, Zydrunas Ilgauskas, Michael Finley, JJ Barea, Marco Belinelli, Hakim Warrick, Eric Maynor, Taylor Griffin
Philadelphia 76ers (kwhit10)- Carmelo Anthony, Andrew Bynum, Baron Davis, Emeka Okafor, Ronnie Brewer, Anthony Parker, Renaldo Balkman, Janerro Pargo, Steve Novak, Joe Smith, Lindsey Hunter, Francisco Elson, Joey Graham, Will Solomon, Tim Thomas
In the regular season, I had these guys as probably the first and the third best teams in the East, so this one should be close. Both are very well constructed rosters.
Center: Marcus Camby vs. Andrew Bynum. If we believe the hype, it's that Andrew Bynum is the second coming of Wilt Chamberlain. He's not that. When healthy, he's a good center down low, though, on both ends. Camby is a decent offensive player who has more range than Bynum, and who is better rebounder. Camby is excellent at help defense, and okay at man-to-man.
Looking at their career head-to-head matchups, both have managed to shut down the other offensively. Camby, however, holds a very large rebounding advantage. This matchup is probably even.
Power forward: Kevin Garnett vs. Emeka Okafor. This is a major mismatch in Toronto's favor. The players are both very good rebounders, and good defenders (although KG is better). However, Okafor is a down-low player, and KG is going to hurt his defense by taking him outside. KG is much more skilled offensively.
Small forward: Ron Artest vs. Carmelo Anthony. I figured this one would be a huge win for Philly, as much as I like Ron Artest. On paper, though, this one is pretty even. Head to head, Carmelo has averaged slightly more points and has shot a slightly better percentage (although both guys are pretty poor overall); Artest has had more rebounds, assists, and steals, and fewer turnovers. If you just look at matchups during the '08-'09 season, Artest actually came out ahead. That being said, I'm still putting this as a very slight Philly advantage.
Shooting guard: Francisco Garcia vs. Ronnie Brewer. A tale of two underrated players. On a per-minute basis, their stats were almost equal; Garcia has more range, Brewer is better inside. Brewer is definitely the better defender, and head-to-head, he's done slightly better. Advantage, Philly
Point guard: Andre Miller vs. Baron Davis. In my head, they're even. On paper, they're even. I guess that makes this a push.
Bench: I think this is a big advantage for Toronto, and as I said in previewing the Portland / Buffalo series, a large percentage of each game will have at least one bench player on the court.
Philly just doesn't have anybody who can match Big Z. Joe Smith can't do it, and frankly, it's a tough matchup for either of the starting bigs, as well. Finley and Parker are about even in my mind, but Warrick vs. Balkman is a big win for Toronto (and no, I'm not underrating Balkman; I appreciate him as an energy guy). Tim Thomas could win a game single-handedly for Philly in this series, but I don't think he's good enough to be counted on consistently.
The end of each team's bench is filled with intriguing guys. I like JJ Barea a lot. Joey Graham has talent, he just doesn't put it together consistently (and doesn't have a lot of range). Bellinelli is a guy that I'm not super high on, but the talent definitely seems to be there. Pargo, I think, was overrated as CP3's backup, but he can help a team.
Overall: This is the important part, right? I see a game where Philly's bigs take up a lot of space in the middle. That will leave KG and Camby defending the paint. Since neither Brewer nor Davis is much of a shooter, Toronto will defend against the drive. Artest will play tough defense on Carmelo, and try to force him into an outside game. When Carmelo does beat Artest off the dribble, he'll be driving right into KG and Camby, who are camped in the paint. (Yes, I still believe in the "lane clogging bigs" theory of Doc Rivers. I think Toronto's defense really disrupts Philly.
On the other end, the opposite is true. Toronto's bigs -- KG, Big Z, and to a lesser extent Camby -- draw Philly's away from the hoop. KG takes Okafor outside and hits jump shot after jump shot. The driving lanes are opened up, meaning Andre Miller can get to the hoop against Davis. Brewer disrupts whatever man he's guarding -- he can take Artest if need be. Both Artest and Garcia can hit from outside, and Finley and Bellinelli provide the same thing off of the bench.
Of course, all that being said, Carmelo can win a game or two all on his own, regardless of offensive game plan. Ultimately, that's what the series will come down to: can Carmelo carry this team by decimating Ron Artest four times in a seven game series. I just don't think he can, especially with Toronto's interior defense closing down the lane.
Prediction: Toronto in 7.
Topic: 2009 Celticsblog Draft: Voting Analysis : Team of the Future (Read 675552 times)