I think LeBron James would have a lot of fun driving into the paint against Odom and Gasol. Until Bynum shows more consistent defensive effort ... you have to love the idea of how dominant James will be against them. Both as a scorer and as a playmaker.
Orlando? If they had Nelson, I'd favour them over the Lakers. Without Nelson, I do not. I still think their offense is vulnerable without him.
LA couldn't defend Dwight Howard during the regular season. That's their best asset in a matchup with LA. Also, Courtney Lee could do a good defensive job on Kobe, and unlike LeBron, Lee will likely defend Kobe for 30+ minutes a night.
This has been my take as well. It seems unlikely that the Lakers can stop Lebron -- my question is whether his teammates will be left with more space than they seem to be getting against the Magic. The Magic are clogging the lane AND guarding the perimeter well. Even though Lebron is scoring/drawing fouls he is doing it the hard way and his teammates cannot seem to generate space for Lebron to kick-out for open shots. Will this change against the Lakers? Will Lebron be able to find his own space on the perimeter to shoot? Will the Cavs be able to defend the Lakers better than they are doing against Orlando. The Lakers perimeter game is not as effective as Orlando's, but it's not bad. Can the Cavs impact Kobe's game?
(1) I think Cleveland can get open looks. LA don't defend the point guard spot well at all, so that should help Mo Williams get free too. Their defensive focus has been missing in action for large parts of the playoffs, even more consistently missing than in the regular season. When they're honed in they defend the three point line well, but when they're not they do an awful job with it.
As long as LeBron ruthlessly attempts to get into the lane throughout the night .... I think Cleveland's offense will function very well.
(2) I'm a little worried about LeBron having stars in his eyes though. He gives Kobe too much respect on the court. Settles for some jumpshots that should be drives. That's a possible problem for Cleveland, but over a seven game series with everything on the line, you have to like LeBron's ability to come good.
(3) Stopping Kobe. I think Delonte West is a very bad matchup. He doesn't have the size to stop Kobe in the post or at the elbows, and Kobe can simply rise up and shoot over him from the perimeter. Kobe generally does very well with those type of matchups. Pavlovic has defended him well in the past, better than either Utah or Denver can defend him but not as good as Houston.
LeBron is the key here. He's the best defender on Kobe .... but how many minutes will they play him Kobe? Just the fourth quarters? Or for 35 minutes a night? That'll make a huge difference to LA's effectiveness.
(4) I think the biggest problem for Cleveland will be Lamar Odom and the quickness, perimeter skills and mobility of himself and Pau Gasol. Their big men did not handle that combination well at all during the regular season, it looks like that'll be a big advantage for LA with the Cavs bigs under-performing defensively.
Unfortunately .... I think LA is the favourite no matter who they play.
It's the loss of Jameer Nelson, it makes me so uncomfortable with the Magic's offense. That's the only reason I'd still pick the Cavs as the team most capable of knocking LA off. Otherwise I'd love their chances and how they matchup with LA.