Author Topic: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?  (Read 5140 times)

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A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« on: May 25, 2009, 11:15:14 AM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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I have watched the second half of games 1 and 2 and all of game 3. Granted, I missed seeing Cleveland's strong 1st halfs (or is it 'halves') in game 1 and game 2, so, I have seen absolutely nothing that tells me Cleveland is going to win this series.  The only exception is that Lebron seems to get the benefit of many calls.  In fairness to refs, I think that Lebron is so strong/powerful, balanced and fast that the drives in the lane are tough to call.  He always seems to generate contact at game speed, while replay often shows minimal contact -- or Lebron initiating the contact. Nonetheless, I see this as the only thing going Cleveland's way.

Here is my 'rooting' dilemma:  I have wanted Cleveland in this series because I have thought they would stand a better chance of beating the Lakers. However, unless my eyes are deceiving me, Orlando is significantly better on offense (spacing/passing/shooting - in and out) AND on defense (clearly making Cleveland work each possession).  Each Cleveland possession seems to be a late shot-clock rush, not getting into their offense (if you want to call it that) till 7 ticks left  -- they are getting few good looks, and when they do their shooters can only deliver at a moderate level. They clearly do not have the arsenal of shooters that Orlando has. Each Orlando possession seems to result in a decent (or better) shot by a crew of excellent distance shooters -- that, or Howard establishes great position and gets the ball close to the hoop where he can dominate.

My worry is that I have been previously convinced that Cleveland would match up better with LA than Orlando as Cleveland has the size to match the frontcourt and Lebron could be unstoppable against them.  After 3 games watching Orlando dominate the flow of play against Cleveland, I am starting to think that perhaps Orlando could beat LA.  Can anyone convince me that Orlando has a better chance of beating LA than Cleveland? Can you convince me that Orlando can defend LA as effectively as they have thus far defended Cleveland (despite Lebron's scoring output)? How do they defend Kobe -- or do they let him get 40 like Lebron? LA has many more potent offensive weapons than Cleveland -- can The Magic defend them effectively? 

If you can convince me, I'll relax and start rooting for the better team in this series -- The Magic.

A side note -- what residual animosity do you think still exists in Orlando toward the Lakers for 'stealing' Shaq a decade ago?

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #1 on: May 25, 2009, 11:20:30 AM »

Offline FLCeltsFan

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I'm still hoping that Denver will come through and beat them.

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #2 on: May 25, 2009, 11:37:04 AM »

Offline Who

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I think LeBron James would have a lot of fun driving into the paint against Odom and Gasol. Until Bynum shows more consistent defensive effort ... you have to love the idea of how dominant James will be against them. Both as a scorer and as a playmaker.

Orlando? If they had Nelson, I'd favour them over the Lakers. Without Nelson, I do not. I still think their offense is vulnerable without him.

LA couldn't defend Dwight Howard during the regular season. That's their best asset in a matchup with LA. Also, Courtney Lee could do a good defensive job on Kobe, and unlike LeBron, Lee will likely defend Kobe for 30+ minutes a night.

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #3 on: May 25, 2009, 11:38:58 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Honestly I really want Denver to win this season...or else this will be like the 1986 Finals, with us playing the role of the lakers.

Obviously I don't want CLE or ORL to win, because there will be a whole "Beginning of a Dynasty?" line of thinking. Nobody wants that. I also don't want Kobe to ever win his 4th chip.

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Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #4 on: May 25, 2009, 11:40:44 AM »

Offline Fafnir

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I think either team can beat LA, but the Magic match up better with the Lakers.

I'm hoping Denver takes care of business and at least forces a 7 game series, if not the upset.

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #5 on: May 25, 2009, 11:42:37 AM »

Offline housecall

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Im all for the Nuggets myself.Go Denver tonight !

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #6 on: May 25, 2009, 11:49:48 AM »

Offline Hoyo de Monterrey

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Honestly I really want Denver to win this season...or else this will be like the 1986 Finals, with us playing the role of the lakers.

I definitely don't think it will be that bad. I understand where you're coming from, but that team had Kareem, Magic, and Worthy healthy for all their games. They had a full roster and just failed to get the job done. The Celtics this year scrapped and clawed for every win without KG, and I know you know his impact, unlike any Laker fan who would dare make that comparison   ;)
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Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #7 on: May 25, 2009, 11:55:15 AM »

Offline indeedproceed

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Honestly I really want Denver to win this season...or else this will be like the 1986 Finals, with us playing the role of the lakers.

I definitely don't think it will be that bad. I understand where you're coming from, but that team had Kareem, Magic, and Worthy healthy for all their games. They had a full roster and just failed to get the job done. The Celtics this year scrapped and clawed for every win without KG, and I know you know his impact, unlike any Laker fan who would dare make that comparison   ;)

Oh, right...but here's how the byline will read in 10 years.

"The Lakers beat Orlando in five games, facing a young unprepared team because both Cleveland and Boston choked away a chance to get to the finals. In Boston's defense, there were some injury concerns."

Historic bylines are huge buttholes.

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like that is always lethal." - Evan 'The God' Turner

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #8 on: May 25, 2009, 12:30:14 PM »

Offline Drucci

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In my opinion, Orlando is the team with all the weapons to beat every remaining team. I don't know how they match against Denver but I think that they do pretty well.

Orlando beat L.A 2-0 this season. I know that regular season results don't mean much in the playoffs but we said the same thing for the Orlando/Cleveland series and it's now obvious that Orlando is a nightmare matchup for the Cavs, and so is the Magic for L.A. Plus, Orlando is the best road team of the playoffs, they won in Cleveland and they can do it anywhere, especially in L.A. It almost seems like they play better on the road than at home (see Turkoglu's stats differential!).

If Orlando reaches the Finals I don't see how they can be stopped. The team has learned so much since their first round series. They were seen as "a good regular season team but not so much in the playoffs", then they suffered two heartbreaking losses against the defending champions, blew out a huge lead, choked, and then won games 6 at home and 7 in Boston to advance. Good individual and collective defense, great shooters, too many offensive weapons, a good bench... and when Pietrus plays like he plays in these playoffs they are almost unstoppable so I really like Orlando's chances.

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #9 on: May 25, 2009, 01:02:22 PM »

Offline xmuscularghandix

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I want Melo VS Lebron, or Kobe VS Lebron.

I don't care who wins as long as its not Phil Jackson.

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #10 on: May 25, 2009, 02:39:44 PM »

Offline Hoyo de Monterrey

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Honestly I really want Denver to win this season...or else this will be like the 1986 Finals, with us playing the role of the lakers.

I definitely don't think it will be that bad. I understand where you're coming from, but that team had Kareem, Magic, and Worthy healthy for all their games. They had a full roster and just failed to get the job done. The Celtics this year scrapped and clawed for every win without KG, and I know you know his impact, unlike any Laker fan who would dare make that comparison   ;)

Oh, right...but here's how the byline will read in 10 years.

"The Lakers beat Orlando in five games, facing a young unprepared team because both Cleveland and Boston choked away a chance to get to the finals. In Boston's defense, there were some injury concerns."

Historic bylines are huge buttholes.

HAHA fair enough... I just hope people remember this postseason for LeBron's potential choke job over the depleted Celtics.
"Let me call him," Floyd said.

The man shook his head. "O.J. doesn't give out his cell," he said. "He'll call you."

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #11 on: May 25, 2009, 04:43:38 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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I think LeBron James would have a lot of fun driving into the paint against Odom and Gasol. Until Bynum shows more consistent defensive effort ... you have to love the idea of how dominant James will be against them. Both as a scorer and as a playmaker.

Orlando? If they had Nelson, I'd favour them over the Lakers. Without Nelson, I do not. I still think their offense is vulnerable without him.

LA couldn't defend Dwight Howard during the regular season. That's their best asset in a matchup with LA. Also, Courtney Lee could do a good defensive job on Kobe, and unlike LeBron, Lee will likely defend Kobe for 30+ minutes a night.

This has been my take as well.  It seems unlikely that the Lakers can stop Lebron -- my question is whether his teammates will be left with more space than they seem to be getting against the Magic.  The Magic are clogging the lane AND guarding the perimeter well.  Even though Lebron is scoring/drawing fouls he is doing it the hard way and his teammates cannot seem to generate space for Lebron to kick-out for open shots.  Will this change against the Lakers?  Will Lebron be able to find his own space on the perimeter to shoot? Will the Cavs be able to defend the Lakers better than they are doing against Orlando.  The Lakers perimeter game is not as effective as Orlando's, but it's not bad.  Can the Cavs impact Kobe's game?

 

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #12 on: May 25, 2009, 04:47:40 PM »

Offline Neurotic Guy

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In my opinion, Orlando is the team with all the weapons to beat every remaining team. I don't know how they match against Denver but I think that they do pretty well.

Orlando beat L.A 2-0 this season. I know that regular season results don't mean much in the playoffs but we said the same thing for the Orlando/Cleveland series and it's now obvious that Orlando is a nightmare matchup for the Cavs, and so is the Magic for L.A. Plus, Orlando is the best road team of the playoffs, they won in Cleveland and they can do it anywhere, especially in L.A. It almost seems like they play better on the road than at home (see Turkoglu's stats differential!).

If Orlando reaches the Finals I don't see how they can be stopped. The team has learned so much since their first round series. They were seen as "a good regular season team but not so much in the playoffs", then they suffered two heartbreaking losses against the defending champions, blew out a huge lead, choked, and then won games 6 at home and 7 in Boston to advance. Good individual and collective defense, great shooters, too many offensive weapons, a good bench... and when Pietrus plays like he plays in these playoffs they are almost unstoppable so I really like Orlando's chances.

Thanks for providing the rationale for Orlando defeating the Lakers.  My worry would be defending the Lakers bigs inside.  I realize Howard is there, but the Lakers have talented offensive bigs and might be able to abuse Wallace and Turkoglu on the offesive end.  Orlando should also be able to score.  I appreciate your optimism regarding the Orlando-Laker match-up.

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #13 on: May 25, 2009, 07:49:42 PM »

Offline Who

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I think LeBron James would have a lot of fun driving into the paint against Odom and Gasol. Until Bynum shows more consistent defensive effort ... you have to love the idea of how dominant James will be against them. Both as a scorer and as a playmaker.

Orlando? If they had Nelson, I'd favour them over the Lakers. Without Nelson, I do not. I still think their offense is vulnerable without him.

LA couldn't defend Dwight Howard during the regular season. That's their best asset in a matchup with LA. Also, Courtney Lee could do a good defensive job on Kobe, and unlike LeBron, Lee will likely defend Kobe for 30+ minutes a night.

This has been my take as well.  It seems unlikely that the Lakers can stop Lebron -- my question is whether his teammates will be left with more space than they seem to be getting against the Magic.  The Magic are clogging the lane AND guarding the perimeter well.  Even though Lebron is scoring/drawing fouls he is doing it the hard way and his teammates cannot seem to generate space for Lebron to kick-out for open shots.  Will this change against the Lakers?  Will Lebron be able to find his own space on the perimeter to shoot? Will the Cavs be able to defend the Lakers better than they are doing against Orlando.  The Lakers perimeter game is not as effective as Orlando's, but it's not bad.  Can the Cavs impact Kobe's game?

(1) I think Cleveland can get open looks. LA don't defend the point guard spot well at all, so that should help Mo Williams get free too. Their defensive focus has been missing in action for large parts of the playoffs, even more consistently missing than in the regular season. When they're honed in they defend the three point line well, but when they're not they do an awful job with it.

As long as LeBron ruthlessly attempts to get into the lane throughout the night .... I think Cleveland's offense will function very well.

(2) I'm a little worried about LeBron having stars in his eyes though. He gives Kobe too much respect on the court. Settles for some jumpshots that should be drives. That's a possible problem for Cleveland, but over a seven game series with everything on the line, you have to like LeBron's ability to come good.

(3) Stopping Kobe. I think Delonte West is a very bad matchup. He doesn't have the size to stop Kobe in the post or at the elbows, and Kobe can simply rise up and shoot over him from the perimeter. Kobe generally does very well with those type of matchups. Pavlovic has defended him well in the past, better than either Utah or Denver can defend him but not as good as Houston.

LeBron is the key here. He's the best defender on Kobe .... but how many minutes will they play him Kobe? Just the fourth quarters? Or for 35 minutes a night? That'll make a huge difference to LA's effectiveness.

(4) I think the biggest problem for Cleveland will be Lamar Odom and the quickness, perimeter skills and mobility of himself and Pau Gasol. Their big men did not handle that combination well at all during the regular season, it looks like that'll be a big advantage for LA with the Cavs bigs under-performing defensively.

Unfortunately .... I think LA is the favourite no matter who they play.

It's the loss of Jameer Nelson, it makes me so uncomfortable with the Magic's offense. That's the only reason I'd still pick the Cavs as the team most capable of knocking LA off. Otherwise I'd love their chances and how they matchup with LA.

Re: A 'Rooting' Dilemma: Who can Beat LA?
« Reply #14 on: May 25, 2009, 08:20:00 PM »

Offline cordobes

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It doesn't matter. Either Kobe chokes or Kobe doesn't choke. If the first, both teams can and will beat LA. If the second, none will.