The longer this game went on, the more I not only felt that the Celtics were going to lose but also that it might be the end of the Big Three era. Losing as badly as they lost tonight got me thinking, retrospectively, as to how they got to be in a position where they would be knocked out in just the second round of the playoffs.
And, of course, there's a lot of reasons starting with injuries, poor player acquisitions since last June, too much youth and not enough size and age. What stuck out to me most though is that the Celtics definitely appeared to go cheap on us fans after delivering a championship. And the more I thought about it, the more I am convinced that Danny Ainge is being held to a budget with a cap of somewhere around $85 million to be spent on player's salaries and luxury tax payments.
Let me explain. According to ShamSports.com salary page the Celtics paid total player salaries this year of about $78.7 million dollars.
http://www.shamsports.com/content/pages/data/salaries/celtics.jspNow, with the salary cap and luxury tax threshold being at $58.68 million and $71.15 million, respectively, and with the Celts having to pay a dollar for dollar penalty after $71.15 million, that means the Celtics total salary outlay for players was about $86.25 million for the 2008-09 season.
http://www.hoopsworld.com/Story.asp?story_id=11713The Celtics had some holes to fill last off season and decided that adding House at $2.65 million, Allen at $2.5 million and Walker, O'Bryant, Giddens, Moore and Marbury at minimum salaries was the best way to go?? Sorry, I don't buy it. I am now thoroughly convinced that Wyc and the boys are giving Danny Ainge a very tight budget and making him adhere to it and that's why we ended up with the bench we did.
So if that is true, I then have to believe that that maximum budget number has to be in the vicinity of about where they spent this year, $85-$86 million. If that number holds true for next year, and it might not, the number could very well go down given the state of the economy and the fact that the salary cap is lowering to $57.3 million and the luxury tax number to $70 million, then once again Danny is going to have his hands tied this summer.
Why? Because as of right now the Celtics have the following players under contract for next year: Kevin Garnett, Paul Pierce, Ray Allen, Rajon Rondo, Kendrick Perkins, Tony Allen, Brian Scalabrine, JR Giddens, Bill Walker, and Gabe Pruitt. That's a total of $70.9 million and means the Celtics are already over the cap. Also, Eddie House has a player option he can exercise to stay with the club and given the economy and the fact a lot of teams will want to keep payrolls low in anticipation of the 2010 free agent bonanza, that means Eddie would be wise to exercise the option and stay with Boston.
That then gives Danny Ainge 11 players on next years team with a payroll that is already slightly over $73.7 million and total outlay at $77.4 million due to the luxury tax. So, in order to fill the glaring holes at the backup PG, backup, center or big PF, and backup SF and stay within what I think is an $85-$86 million budget, that leaves very little for Danny to be able to do. He could resign Big baby at $3.5 million per for 4 years and add two veteran minimum contracts that would add about another $5.1 in salary and $10.2 million in total cash outlay and be already over budget but possibly within means.
But how much better will that makes this team? And who are the two veteran minimum players going to be that might actually make a difference? Sure I guess if they could get lucky and talk Grant Hill and Stephan Marbury to sign at the minimum and Baby for $3 million a year for 4 years, things might not be that bad, but I think we would once again be in a huge hole if injuries occur up front once again.
Now another option to improve the team but keep payroll below that budget level is through trades. Danny has not been shy about what he would have done had he been in a position of power back when Bird and McHale were aging. He readily admits he would have traded them and still says so to this day.
"Look at these two guys," Ainge told Auerbach, over the surrounding conversations of other players and their families. "Larry's got casts on his feet [from surgery to remove bone spurs in both heels], Kevin's got a screw in his foot [to repair a stress fracture]—you've got to trade these guys." Everyone laughed at Ainge's typical audacity, but he wasn't joking. "I would have traded Larry Bird," he insists today.
http://vault.sportsillustrated.cnn.com/vault/article/magazine/MAG1108251/index.htmSo given that there are a lot of teams looking to get out from under long contracts and another group that is craving expiring contracts so that they can become FA players in 2010 and given that Ray Allen is a very good to All Star caliber player in great health with one of the largest expiring contracts out there, does it behoove Ainge to move Ray so that he can make the team better and deeper while at the same time keeping payroll lower?
For instance, let's say Danny could work out a trade with Golden State because they are having some financial problems and have a bunch of players with long running contracts that are going to have them well over the cap and uncompetitive for many years. He could move Ray and Scal, or about $23.1 million in salary to Golden State for Stephen Jackson, Corey Maggette, Ronny Turiaf and Anthony Randolf for about $22.4 million. The Celtics could even send a future pick or two. The Warriors like Belinelli, Azubuike, Wright and Biedrins and I think that is the group they will build around for the future.
Doing something like this, and I mean something like this not this particular trade, could possibly fill a few holes for the Celtics on their bench while still getting back a competent starting SG. They might even be able to save a $1 million or so. And then they could still resign Baby and be under the $85-86 million budget. Other teams might want to do something similar like Dallas, Phoenix, Sacramento and others. The market is definitely there for Danny to strike.
But the question is, will he? Now if he resigns Baby to a 5 year $5 million contract and then splits the MLE on Hill and Nesterovic and gives Marbury the LLE, then I guess my whole "Danny has a budget" theory is all wet and lots of people will return to this thread and justifiably mock me. Hell, I'll bump it to mock myself.
But I don't think that's going to be necessary. Danny knows with a healthy Garnett, a healthy Pierce and Perk and Rondo developing and being more consistent that he could live without Ray Allen as long as he has a long and strong and veteran bench with a youngster thrown in here and there(Walker and Giddens).
It should be interesting to see and I think it won't be too long after the new champs are crowned that we will now for sure exactly what direction Danny will lean to. I, for one, can't wait because this team still has at least one more championship in them. I can feel it.
Topic: Has Ray Allen played his last game as a Celtic? (Read 27108 times)