Strategy with KG out?

[Atzar]

Rondo is the key.  For us to really be competitive deep in the playoffs, Rondo's going to have to turn the next corner - he can't have off games on the road, and he needs to drain that jumper every time they give it to him.  Cleveland will let Rondo shoot, and if he explodes on them, it'll ruin Mike Brown's entire defensive scheme.  He also needs to shut Mo Williams down like he's capable of doing.

I'm still not especially worried about Chicago or Philly/Orlando.  But to get any further than the ECF, Rondo has to grow up and play like the superstar we all hope he'll be in the future.  Yes, it's a long shot, but that's how we beat Cleveland.

[expobear]

Well,

Everything runs through Pierce and Ray now - the team is very  much a perimeter team now as they will not likely feed Powe/Perk on the inside more than 7-10 times per game - which is a mistake in my estimation.

The big man rotation of Perk/Powe/Davis have to play tough defense, rebound, and score enough to negate the contributions of their counterparts in order to make games a battle between Pierce/Ray/Rondo and whomever the other teams' stars are.

Pose/TA/House/Marbury will have to be huge off the bench - I see them playing as a unit and they need to produce 35-40 points a night IMO - The starters aren't going to be as productive because Rondo is offensively inconsistent and Pierce/Ray are still perimeter players.

Against tough defenses, Boston will have to get quality production from the bigs defensively because Pierce/Ray won't be going for 50 every game.

Rondo and Marbury are the X factors - if they play like stars, Boston has enough to win against anybody - if they are just hit-and-miss complementary guys, Boston is done in the ECF.

I do think that Orlando is beatable though - quality efforts and a superior bench make that a fun and competitive 7 game series, but Boston has enough bullets I believe.

VS. Cleveland - I can't project victory without a dominant interior player because Cleveland is so good defensively and have eliminated Ray Allen consistently.

The team still has serious fire-power though - they could find a new style with all their current guys - Powe has average 14/8 against Cleveland this year and Perkins has had good success as well

Bottom line: consistent production from PP/Ray/RR and the team can compete against anyone.

The Posey nostalgia still runs strong on this board.



Subconsciously, perhaps.....Bill meant to say Powe.   

[slam]

On paper, it looks like Glen Davis would be a better fit in the front court along side Perkins because Davis can space the floor with his mid range shooting, whereas Perkins and Powe are both low post players. 

However, I think Powe has to start and here’s why:

1. Powe is more consistent offensively and by that, I primarily mean he doesn’t have to rely on a mid range jump shot for his offense that would always be hit or miss.  Powe’s low post offensive game gives him high percentage shots OR a much higher opportunity to go to the line than a mid range jumper.
2. Powe is a better rebounder, and in the playoffs rebounds count more than ever.
3. When Davis does go to his post moves, he often has trouble against tall athletic shot blockers, ala Noah in round one, and Howard in round two.  Powe gets his shots off against such players much easier, or draws a foul.

I don’t think it’s clear cut enough which one is a better defender, but it’s hard to argue that Powe isn’t one of the best in the league at drawing charges which should give us two or three more possessions each game.

And finally, based on the last two games when Powe has started (despite Davis have a stomach bug), I think Doc wants to have Powe in the starting line up, perhaps for the reasons I have mentioned, and he has started him there so they get used to that rotation.

[BillfromBoston]

For Pierce, Allen and Rondo to play like stars isn't enough.  Davis and Powe will also have to play like stars.

3 stars playing like stars isn't enough? Who has more than 3 stars?

Obviously the role players have to be solid, but no team has the star power Boston has other than possibly LA.

Now, I don't put a high probability in those 3 playing like stars every game - I think Rondo is still going to be a role player 1/3 of the time, which is too much.

But IF the those three do there thing consistently, no there are few teams that can match those options.

[BillfromBoston]

Well,

Everything runs through Pierce and Ray now - the team is very  much a perimeter team now as they will not likely feed Powe/Perk on the inside more than 7-10 times per game - which is a mistake in my estimation.

The big man rotation of Perk/Powe/Davis have to play tough defense, rebound, and score enough to negate the contributions of their counterparts in order to make games a battle between Pierce/Ray/Rondo and whomever the other teams' stars are.

Pose/TA/House/Marbury will have to be huge off the bench - I see them playing as a unit and they need to produce 35-40 points a night IMO - The starters aren't going to be as productive because Rondo is offensively inconsistent and Pierce/Ray are still perimeter players.

Against tough defenses, Boston will have to get quality production from the bigs defensively because Pierce/Ray won't be going for 50 every game.

Rondo and Marbury are the X factors - if they play like stars, Boston has enough to win against anybody - if they are just hit-and-miss complementary guys, Boston is done in the ECF.

I do think that Orlando is beatable though - quality efforts and a superior bench make that a fun and competitive 7 game series, but Boston has enough bullets I believe.

VS. Cleveland - I can't project victory without a dominant interior player because Cleveland is so good defensively and have eliminated Ray Allen consistently.

The team still has serious fire-power though - they could find a new style with all their current guys - Powe has average 14/8 against Cleveland this year and Perkins has had good success as well

Bottom line: consistent production from PP/Ray/RR and the team can compete against anyone.

The Posey nostalgia still runs strong on this board.



Subconsciously, perhaps.....Bill meant to say Powe.   

Exactly - accusing me of Posey nostalgia is pretty funny if you've been reading this blog...

[MattD]

I agree the Perk/BBD and Powe/Moore lineups make the most sense: pairing inside and outside offensive players, and good rebounders with mediocre rebounders.  Doc has started Powe the past few games simply because Doc wanted Powe out there while he was still warm, but the defensive rebounding (and overall interior defense) has really suffered when BBD and Moore play together.  Plus on the second unit, Powe and Marbury seem to have good chemistry.

Obviously I'd prefer KG to be playing, but in some ways I'm really excited to see what these younger players can do given significant minutes on the big stage.  I love how quickly KG became identified as a Celtic, but it's a different sort of special to see these young guys who we drafted and watched improve, like BBD and Powe, now have their chance to shine.  (Especially true since not all of them may be back next year.)  Hopefully they will make the most of it.

[BillfromBoston]

On paper, it looks like Glen Davis would be a better fit in the front court along side Perkins because Davis can space the floor with his mid range shooting, whereas Perkins and Powe are both low post players. 

However, I think Powe has to start and here’s why:

1. Powe is more consistent offensively and by that, I primarily mean he doesn’t have to rely on a mid range jump shot for his offense that would always be hit or miss.  Powe’s low post offensive game gives him high percentage shots OR a much higher opportunity to go to the line than a mid range jumper.
2. Powe is a better rebounder, and in the playoffs rebounds count more than ever.
3. When Davis does go to his post moves, he often has trouble against tall athletic shot blockers, ala Noah in round one, and Howard in round two.  Powe gets his shots off against such players much easier, or draws a foul.

I don’t think it’s clear cut enough which one is a better defender, but it’s hard to argue that Powe isn’t one of the best in the league at drawing charges which should give us two or three more possessions each game.

And finally, based on the last two games when Powe has started (despite Davis have a stomach bug), I think Doc wants to have Powe in the starting line up, perhaps for the reasons I have mentioned, and he has started him there so they get used to that rotation.

Well thought out, but Davis is the better fit. Here's why:

1. While Davis is a below average rebounder, Mikki Moore is even worse - putting the two best rebounders in the frontcourt hurts the overall rebounding on the court for a full 48.

2. Davis' jumper is going to be necissary for opening up driving lanes for Pierce and Rondo, who will now be heavily relied upon.

3. Having Powe come in off the bench gives him a chance to feature offensively in certain situaitons, which can be very helpful.

4. Powe's chemistry with Marbury has been outstanding and Eddie House tends to give Powe the ball the most out of all the guards.

5. Regardless of what the rotation is, Perk/Powe/Davis are all going to be playing 25+ minutes a night - the "hot hand" will get the slight bump in PT, but all 3 are going to be getting the lions share of the time.

[slam]

I can’t really argue with any of that, Bill.  I do think Powe and Perkins on the floor together will help us get off to a better start in games.  The first substitution could be to mix up the inside/outside post players so we move towards Perk/Davis & Moore/Powe for the rest of the game.

Of course, I really just hope that Moore has his minutes significantly reduced and we have a 3 man rotation at the 4/5 for the most part.  I’d like to see Moore used more for foul trouble situations and garbage time.  Knowing Doc, I don’t see that happening.  I do worry a lot about  Moore guarding Tyrus Thomas who I just can’t see him staying with, and see him picking up fouls at an even more alarming rate than normal.  I’d see him do better matched up with Noah or Miller.

[expobear]

Here's Hollinger's take.  The biggest difference with KG being out is the loss on defense:


ESPN's John Hollinger discusses Powe's potential as Garnett's backup

Quote:
Additionally, there's another positive that's gone under the radar. While Garnett has missed the past month, so has his backup, Leon Powe. Powe returned to the lineup Wednesday night and had 18 points and 13 boards in a win over Washington, providing a good indication that he'll be ready to deliver in the playoffs.

In every respect but one, the difference between Powe and Garnett is less than you might think. Powe averages 17.5 points and 11.2 boards per 40 minutes, and shoots 52.4 percent; for Garnett those numbers are 20.3 and 10.9, and he shoots 53.1 percent. Additionally, Powe draws fouls by the bushel, while Garnett rarely gets to the stripe.

The major difference between the two is on defense. Garnett is among the best defenders in the league, of course, winning Defensive Player of the Year honors last season. Powe competes and takes lots of charges, but otherwise is average at best. Powe also averages a foul every 6.4 minutes, making it tough for him to get extended minutes.

Plus-minus numbers tell a similar story. On the season, Boston's adjusted plus-minus with Garnett was +5.87 points per 48 minutes; with Powe it was +2.79.

If you accept that there's about a 3-point difference between Garnett and Powe -- which both the plus-minus and per-minute scoring numbers seem to indicate -- then it's still a big deal for Boston. Three points per game is huge, and the real difference may be large: Powe's foul-proneness makes him unlikely to soak up 40 minutes a game in Garnett's absence, and the other subs aren't nearly as good.

For instance, if the distribution of Garnett's 40 minutes becomes more like 24 minutes of Powe and 16 minutes of Glen Davis (-6.40), then we're talking about nearly a seven-point difference between the Celtics with a healthy Garnett and the Celtics now. 

[Eja117]

1. Show them movies like 300 every nite

2 hire motivational speakers like Rudy, Doug Flutie, and the entire Miracle on Ice hockey team

3 Hand over their families to Somali pirates not to be released unless they win the whole [dang] thing

4 Have both Obama AND Bush show up and say "We don't like you. We never liked you. We're going with the Lakers"

5 Tell them that privately Stern is happy KG will be out cause now they have no chance in Hell and he doesn't even have to break rules to stop them

6 Have someone "steal" the championship trophy from last year and replace it with a sign that says "You'll never see this again"

7 Have the Pope bless them

8 Have the Dalai Lama promise to pray against them

[ctrey]

Get ready for the draft. We will be out in the second round at best. I actually think we will lose to Chicago. Let the national media begin the "They rented a title" talk begin.

[Eja117]

Tell Baby, Pierce, or Powe to clothesline the hell out of the first Bull that drives to the basket

Desperate times call for desperate measures

[threats13]

PERIMETER DEFENSE!!!!! This team can win with the roster it has I really believe that but they will not get past the Magic if they do not play solid perimter defense.  We lost to them the past two times in interesting games but it seems as if we let them take too many uncontested 3s and they were hitting them.  If we can play good perimiter D against the Magic I dont see us losing.  The Cavs have so many more dynamics than the Magic and winning that series is going to be a fight to the death KG or no KG.


Strategy in the playoffs: DEFENSE.  you can play this game two ways.

1) Score more than the other team.
2) Keep the opponent from scoring more than you.

If we can successfully do choice 2 we can win this title.  We NEED to stop other teams from scoring it is absolutely key.  LETS GO DEFENSE!!!

[johnnyrondo]

Go to Big Al down low and trade Ratliff's expiring contract for Pau Gasol?    

I wonder if KG had surgery like today if he could possibly be back by the ECF? Personally I think we "can" beat both Chicago and Orlando with out him and then you never know...maybe Lebron gets hurt or another key Cav?  

[fan33]

- Defensive assignments, rotations must be made to be as best as ever possible!

- Limit foul troubles ( Perk must stay active yet play entire games )

- Limit turnovers ( I do have hopes that Steph helps here )

- Foul shooting percentages must be maximised

- And then this team can still go all the way, in a grueling set of series, some taking 7 games...