Hornets Regret Signing Posey Already?

[winsomme]

i just also want to reiterate that the Cs are under the luxury cap for 2010 and 2011. So, the salaries that are doubled are the ones added between now and then.

Posey's salary is not the one that would be doubled. You can't just decide which salary you want to double. it has to be the one that actually takes you over the cap when it is signed.

if you want to argue that Pose's numbers will drop significantly and won't be worth the 6-7 mil then fine, but this idea that we will be paying Pose 12-14mil is just not fair.

  First of all, you do understand that our 2011 salary number is only for Paul Perk and KG and that our 2012 number is for KG only, right? It's pointless to claim that we're under the tax when we're clearly 12-14 player shy of a full roster in those years.

  And while claiming Posey's number shouldn't be doubled because of when he was signed helps your argument it doesn't mean anything in the real world. The team has core players and extraneous players. Of the non-core players they have small contract guys and larger contract guys. Unless you cut players from your core or downgrade your core talent to save money the only real place you can save money is the non-core players with larger contracts.

  How should Ainge phrase this to Wyc? We want Posey, but we have to give him 4 years instead of the 2 years we think he'll be worth the money. We're over the luxury threshold now and we will be for all four years but you shouldn't think of Posey as costing you double, you should think that Paul and Rajon's contracts count towards all that extra money because they haven't actually signed the extensions that we've budgeted or them yet.
 
  I'm an Ainge supporter by I'd fire him on the spot if he made a pitch like that.

like i said, if want to argue that Pose will not be effective or important to the team in 2011 because of a fall off in his game, then fine. but you can't just decide which players you want to say are the ones that are doubled due to being over the luxury tax.

and this, mind you, is all predicated on the idea that Pose will not be useful in 2010 and 2011...something which is not at all clear cut...I mean, one of the favorites for people to try and bring in for this season is Joe Smith who is in his 14th season in the NBA..

[BballTim]

i just also want to reiterate that the Cs are under the luxury cap for 2010 and 2011. So, the salaries that are doubled are the ones added between now and then.

Posey's salary is not the one that would be doubled. You can't just decide which salary you want to double. it has to be the one that actually takes you over the cap when it is signed.

if you want to argue that Pose's numbers will drop significantly and won't be worth the 6-7 mil then fine, but this idea that we will be paying Pose 12-14mil is just not fair.

  First of all, you do understand that our 2011 salary number is only for Paul Perk and KG and that our 2012 number is for KG only, right? It's pointless to claim that we're under the tax when we're clearly 12-14 player shy of a full roster in those years.

  And while claiming Posey's number shouldn't be doubled because of when he was signed helps your argument it doesn't mean anything in the real world. The team has core players and extraneous players. Of the non-core players they have small contract guys and larger contract guys. Unless you cut players from your core or downgrade your core talent to save money the only real place you can save money is the non-core players with larger contracts.

  How should Ainge phrase this to Wyc? We want Posey, but we have to give him 4 years instead of the 2 years we think he'll be worth the money. We're over the luxury threshold now and we will be for all four years but you shouldn't think of Posey as costing you double, you should think that Paul and Rajon's contracts count towards all that extra money because they haven't actually signed the extensions that we've budgeted or them yet.
 
  I'm an Ainge supporter by I'd fire him on the spot if he made a pitch like that.

like i said, if want to argue that Pose will not be effective or important to the team in 2011 because of a fall off in his game, then fine. but you can't just decide which players you want to say are the ones that are doubled due to being over the luxury tax.

and this, mind you, is all predicated on the idea that Pose will not be useful in 2010 and 2011...something which is not at all clear cut...I mean, one of the favorites for people to try and bring in for this season is Joe Smith who is in his 14th season in the NBA..

  Think Joe Smith is going to be guarding players like LeBron and Kobe and Wade? Everyone knows that bigs can usually play longer in the league than wings. Parish played until he was 43. Should we sign Posey to a 7 year deal when his current contract ends?

  And when the team's already over the threshold then the difference between having Posey and not having Posey IS twice his salary. It's not the case that the team has a chart with everybody's name and 3 players have an asterisk because "they cost double" They just know that they're over the threshold by a certain amount.

  Look at it like this: Pruitt, Powe, Davis, House and Tony Allen will all be either replaced or making small money by then Scal won't be making $3M. So unless we sign a MLE player next year nobody off the bench will be big salary. If we'd have kept Posey and we re-sign or replace Ray and Paul then we'd be over the threshold. The only way to make a decent dent in the luxury tax number would be to dump one of the big 3, get rid of Perk or Rondo, or get rid of Posey. Which of those would you choose?

  When you go to choose which player out of those 6 you get rid of, you won't say anything like "we should get rid of Paul and not Ray because Paul was extended AFTER Ray so his salary counts double and Ray's doesn't". Get it? Aside from the fact that the big three wouldn't really be "double" unless we're over the threshold by >$20M, any player you sign adds to the tax by the amount of his salary. Any player you get rid of saves you double (within limits). It's not that ONLY Posey counts double, but to a certain extent they all count double.

[winsomme]

i just also want to reiterate that the Cs are under the luxury cap for 2010 and 2011. So, the salaries that are doubled are the ones added between now and then.

Posey's salary is not the one that would be doubled. You can't just decide which salary you want to double. it has to be the one that actually takes you over the cap when it is signed.

if you want to argue that Pose's numbers will drop significantly and won't be worth the 6-7 mil then fine, but this idea that we will be paying Pose 12-14mil is just not fair.

  First of all, you do understand that our 2011 salary number is only for Paul Perk and KG and that our 2012 number is for KG only, right? It's pointless to claim that we're under the tax when we're clearly 12-14 player shy of a full roster in those years.

  And while claiming Posey's number shouldn't be doubled because of when he was signed helps your argument it doesn't mean anything in the real world. The team has core players and extraneous players. Of the non-core players they have small contract guys and larger contract guys. Unless you cut players from your core or downgrade your core talent to save money the only real place you can save money is the non-core players with larger contracts.

  How should Ainge phrase this to Wyc? We want Posey, but we have to give him 4 years instead of the 2 years we think he'll be worth the money. We're over the luxury threshold now and we will be for all four years but you shouldn't think of Posey as costing you double, you should think that Paul and Rajon's contracts count towards all that extra money because they haven't actually signed the extensions that we've budgeted or them yet.
 
  I'm an Ainge supporter by I'd fire him on the spot if he made a pitch like that.

like i said, if want to argue that Pose will not be effective or important to the team in 2011 because of a fall off in his game, then fine. but you can't just decide which players you want to say are the ones that are doubled due to being over the luxury tax.

and this, mind you, is all predicated on the idea that Pose will not be useful in 2010 and 2011...something which is not at all clear cut...I mean, one of the favorites for people to try and bring in for this season is Joe Smith who is in his 14th season in the NBA..

  Think Joe Smith is going to be guarding players like LeBron and Kobe and Wade? Everyone knows that bigs can usually play longer in the league than wings. Parish played until he was 43. Should we sign Posey to a 7 year deal when his current contract ends?

  And when the team's already over the threshold then the difference between having Posey and not having Posey IS twice his salary. It's not the case that the team has a chart with everybody's name and 3 players have an asterisk because "they cost double" They just know that they're over the threshold by a certain amount.

  Look at it like this: Pruitt, Powe, Davis, House and Tony Allen will all be either replaced or making small money by then Scal won't be making $3M. So unless we sign a MLE player next year nobody off the bench will be big salary. If we'd have kept Posey and we re-sign or replace Ray and Paul then we'd be over the threshold. The only way to make a decent dent in the luxury tax number would be to dump one of the big 3, get rid of Perk or Rondo, or get rid of Posey. Which of those would you choose?

  When you go to choose which player out of those 6 you get rid of, you won't say anything like "we should get rid of Paul and not Ray because Paul was extended AFTER Ray so his salary counts double and Ray's doesn't". Get it? Aside from the fact that the big three wouldn't really be "double" unless we're over the threshold by >$20M, any player you sign adds to the tax by the amount of his salary. Any player you get rid of saves you double (within limits). It's not that ONLY Posey counts double, but to a certain extent they all count double.

Joe Smith certainly got some time guarding KG and he was a big boost to CLE last season - especially in the series with us. Horry, the guy often compared to Pose, played 16 seasons. Heck Danny is still asking Reggie Miller to come back....

Should we have signed Posey for 7 more seasons? No, we should have signed him for 4.

Let me ask you this, Bball, what do you think Posey's stats will be in 2010? How much drop off are you expecting for him?

[BballTim]

Joe Smith certainly got some time guarding KG and he was a big boost to CLE last season - especially in the series with us. Horry, the guy often compared to Pose, played 16 seasons. Heck Danny is still asking Reggie Miller to come back....

Should we have signed Posey for 7 more seasons? No, we should have signed him for 4.

Let me ask you this, Bball, what do you think Posey's stats will be in 2010? How much drop off are you expecting for him?

  That's great about Smith, if you don't see a difference between guarding KG and guarding LeBron or Kobe or Wade. And Posey's stats are mediocre to begin with. Aside from the fact that he takes fewer inside shots every year I think that any decrease in his  footspeed will affect his much lauded defense. I don't share your optimism that he'll be as quick in a year or two as he was last year.

  By the way, notice that while you say that we should have signed him for 4 years you only want to discuss his production in the first 2 years?

[KungPoweChicken]

I'm not surprised the Hornets regret the signing. The simple fact is that Posey isn't that good of a player. He became the most built-up role player in celticsblog history. And making players more important than they are is what we do here on celticsblog. So if you're new to this site, the overvaluing of Posey is quite the accomplishment.

[winsomme]

Joe Smith certainly got some time guarding KG and he was a big boost to CLE last season - especially in the series with us. Horry, the guy often compared to Pose, played 16 seasons. Heck Danny is still asking Reggie Miller to come back....

Should we have signed Posey for 7 more seasons? No, we should have signed him for 4.

Let me ask you this, Bball, what do you think Posey's stats will be in 2010? How much drop off are you expecting for him?

  That's great about Smith, if you don't see a difference between guarding KG and guarding LeBron or Kobe or Wade. And Posey's stats are mediocre to begin with. Aside from the fact that he takes fewer inside shots every year I think that any decrease in his  footspeed will affect his much lauded defense. I don't share your optimism that he'll be as quick in a year or two as he was last year.

  By the way, notice that while you say that we should have signed him for 4 years you only want to discuss his production in the first 2 years?

I already said in an earlier post that i don't think it is a stretch for Pose to be averaging 8pts, 5 rebs and shoot 39% from 3 land in the latter two seasons.....plus, the guy is clutch...

and like i said, if he did drop down production-wise in those years, he would at the very least be an expiring contract in 2011 that could be used as trade bait.

do I think that his footspeed will slow some by 2010 and/or 2011? Sure. the point i'm making with Joe or Horry is that i don't think that it will slow to the point where he will be ineffective.

Would Pose be the one chasing LeBron and Kobe around in 2011? maybe not. maybe that would be Walker's job at that point.

[BballTim]

Joe Smith certainly got some time guarding KG and he was a big boost to CLE last season - especially in the series with us. Horry, the guy often compared to Pose, played 16 seasons. Heck Danny is still asking Reggie Miller to come back....

Should we have signed Posey for 7 more seasons? No, we should have signed him for 4.

Let me ask you this, Bball, what do you think Posey's stats will be in 2010? How much drop off are you expecting for him?

  That's great about Smith, if you don't see a difference between guarding KG and guarding LeBron or Kobe or Wade. And Posey's stats are mediocre to begin with. Aside from the fact that he takes fewer inside shots every year I think that any decrease in his  footspeed will affect his much lauded defense. I don't share your optimism that he'll be as quick in a year or two as he was last year.

  By the way, notice that while you say that we should have signed him for 4 years you only want to discuss his production in the first 2 years?

I already said in an earlier post that i don't think it is a stretch for Pose to be averaging 8pts, 5 rebs and shoot 39% from 3 land in the latter two seasons.....plus, the guy is clutch...

and like i said, if he did drop down production-wise in those years, he would at the very least be an expiring contract in 2011 that could be used as trade bait.

do I think that his footspeed will slow some by 2010 and/or 2011? Sure. the point i'm making with Joe or Horry is that i don't think that it will slow to the point where he will be ineffective.

Would Pose be the one chasing LeBron and Kobe around in 2011? maybe not. maybe that would be Walker's job at that point.

  Whatever. Since I can't prove to you that A) Posey won't be worth much to us if he can't guard wing players or that B) Posey's play will degrade over time, let's continue this discussion in 2 years after Pose wins a couple more 6th man of the year awards.

[winsomme]

Joe Smith certainly got some time guarding KG and he was a big boost to CLE last season - especially in the series with us. Horry, the guy often compared to Pose, played 16 seasons. Heck Danny is still asking Reggie Miller to come back....

Should we have signed Posey for 7 more seasons? No, we should have signed him for 4.

Let me ask you this, Bball, what do you think Posey's stats will be in 2010? How much drop off are you expecting for him?

  That's great about Smith, if you don't see a difference between guarding KG and guarding LeBron or Kobe or Wade. And Posey's stats are mediocre to begin with. Aside from the fact that he takes fewer inside shots every year I think that any decrease in his  footspeed will affect his much lauded defense. I don't share your optimism that he'll be as quick in a year or two as he was last year.

  By the way, notice that while you say that we should have signed him for 4 years you only want to discuss his production in the first 2 years?

I already said in an earlier post that i don't think it is a stretch for Pose to be averaging 8pts, 5 rebs and shoot 39% from 3 land in the latter two seasons.....plus, the guy is clutch...

and like i said, if he did drop down production-wise in those years, he would at the very least be an expiring contract in 2011 that could be used as trade bait.

do I think that his footspeed will slow some by 2010 and/or 2011? Sure. the point i'm making with Joe or Horry is that i don't think that it will slow to the point where he will be ineffective.

Would Pose be the one chasing LeBron and Kobe around in 2011? maybe not. maybe that would be Walker's job at that point.

  Whatever. Since I can't prove to you that A) Posey won't be worth much to us if he can't guard wing players or that B) Posey's play will degrade over time, let's continue this discussion in 2 years after Pose leads the Hornets to a couple of titles.

We're talking about the "degree" of degradation.  We're also talking about the potential detrimental effects of the contract.

How many Titles the Hornets win is pretty irrelevant as they are not as good as us and what Pose could do for us is what I'm concerned with.

[BballTim]

Joe Smith certainly got some time guarding KG and he was a big boost to CLE last season - especially in the series with us. Horry, the guy often compared to Pose, played 16 seasons. Heck Danny is still asking Reggie Miller to come back....

Should we have signed Posey for 7 more seasons? No, we should have signed him for 4.

Let me ask you this, Bball, what do you think Posey's stats will be in 2010? How much drop off are you expecting for him?

  That's great about Smith, if you don't see a difference between guarding KG and guarding LeBron or Kobe or Wade. And Posey's stats are mediocre to begin with. Aside from the fact that he takes fewer inside shots every year I think that any decrease in his  footspeed will affect his much lauded defense. I don't share your optimism that he'll be as quick in a year or two as he was last year.

  By the way, notice that while you say that we should have signed him for 4 years you only want to discuss his production in the first 2 years?

I already said in an earlier post that i don't think it is a stretch for Pose to be averaging 8pts, 5 rebs and shoot 39% from 3 land in the latter two seasons.....plus, the guy is clutch...

and like i said, if he did drop down production-wise in those years, he would at the very least be an expiring contract in 2011 that could be used as trade bait.

do I think that his footspeed will slow some by 2010 and/or 2011? Sure. the point i'm making with Joe or Horry is that i don't think that it will slow to the point where he will be ineffective.

Would Pose be the one chasing LeBron and Kobe around in 2011? maybe not. maybe that would be Walker's job at that point.

  Whatever. Since I can't prove to you that A) Posey won't be worth much to us if he can't guard wing players or that B) Posey's play will degrade over time, let's continue this discussion in 2 years after Pose leads the Hornets to a couple of titles.

We're talking about the "degree" of degradation.  We're also talking about the potential detrimental effects of the contract.

How many Titles the Hornets win is pretty irrelevant as they are not as good as us and what Pose could do for us is what I'm concerned with.

  Since you don't see paying millions of dollars to a has-been as any kind of a detriment it's hard to have that conversation.

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

   If Posey was as important a player as you think and will hold up as well as you think then why weren't there more bidders for him? Because most of the top teams either thought that he's less of a difference maker than you do or that even the possibility of a title the isn't enough to justify the amount of money they'll be paying him over the last couple of years of the contract. After all the deals we've seen over the last few years (AI, KG, Chauncey, Ray, Pau, Thomas et al) in which team after team traded away talent to get out of contracts, I can't believe the number of time I hear "but it's only an extra $13M ($26M with the tax) and eventually it will be an expiring contract...".

[winsomme]

Joe Smith certainly got some time guarding KG and he was a big boost to CLE last season - especially in the series with us. Horry, the guy often compared to Pose, played 16 seasons. Heck Danny is still asking Reggie Miller to come back....

Should we have signed Posey for 7 more seasons? No, we should have signed him for 4.

Let me ask you this, Bball, what do you think Posey's stats will be in 2010? How much drop off are you expecting for him?

  That's great about Smith, if you don't see a difference between guarding KG and guarding LeBron or Kobe or Wade. And Posey's stats are mediocre to begin with. Aside from the fact that he takes fewer inside shots every year I think that any decrease in his  footspeed will affect his much lauded defense. I don't share your optimism that he'll be as quick in a year or two as he was last year.

  By the way, notice that while you say that we should have signed him for 4 years you only want to discuss his production in the first 2 years?

I already said in an earlier post that i don't think it is a stretch for Pose to be averaging 8pts, 5 rebs and shoot 39% from 3 land in the latter two seasons.....plus, the guy is clutch...

and like i said, if he did drop down production-wise in those years, he would at the very least be an expiring contract in 2011 that could be used as trade bait.

do I think that his footspeed will slow some by 2010 and/or 2011? Sure. the point i'm making with Joe or Horry is that i don't think that it will slow to the point where he will be ineffective.

Would Pose be the one chasing LeBron and Kobe around in 2011? maybe not. maybe that would be Walker's job at that point.

  Whatever. Since I can't prove to you that A) Posey won't be worth much to us if he can't guard wing players or that B) Posey's play will degrade over time, let's continue this discussion in 2 years after Pose leads the Hornets to a couple of titles.

We're talking about the "degree" of degradation.  We're also talking about the potential detrimental effects of the contract.

How many Titles the Hornets win is pretty irrelevant as they are not as good as us and what Pose could do for us is what I'm concerned with.

  Since you don't see paying millions of dollars to a has-been as any kind of a detriment it's hard to have that conversation.

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

   If Posey was as important a player as you think and will hold up as well as you think then why weren't there more bidders for him? Because most of the top teams either thought that he's less of a difference maker than you do or that even the possibility of a title the isn't enough to justify the amount of money they'll be paying him over the last couple of years of the contract. After all the deals we've seen over the last few years (AI, KG, Chauncey, Ray, Pau, Thomas et al) in which team after team traded away talent to get out of contracts, I can't believe the number of time I hear "but it's only an extra $13M ($26M with the tax) and eventually it will be an expiring contract...".

everything is so polarized here. When did it become a given the Posey will be a "has-been" in 2010 and 2011?

I've given you concrete recent examples of players that continue to be effective in similar years to when you are claiming he will be a has-been.

and i never said that Wyc was cheap. I have always argued that this ownership was in fact the opposite of cheap. and pointed to his interview during the game as an example that their top priority is putting together a team that will win another Title.

If you look back through my posts you will see that my opinion is that they were trying to thread the needle with Pose. They thought that 3 yrs for the MLE would get it done, but NO swooped in with the 4yr.

[winsomme]

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose and his potential importance to a contending team. I'm pretty sure CLE and LA both showed interest in Pose.

the question was how much it was going to take to sign him and also what the team's need was at that position.

we have a clear need at Pose's spot. so that is a factor too.

[Brendan]

Joe Smith certainly got some time guarding KG and he was a big boost to CLE last season - especially in the series with us. Horry, the guy often compared to Pose, played 16 seasons. Heck Danny is still asking Reggie Miller to come back....

Should we have signed Posey for 7 more seasons? No, we should have signed him for 4.

Let me ask you this, Bball, what do you think Posey's stats will be in 2010? How much drop off are you expecting for him?

  That's great about Smith, if you don't see a difference between guarding KG and guarding LeBron or Kobe or Wade. And Posey's stats are mediocre to begin with. Aside from the fact that he takes fewer inside shots every year I think that any decrease in his  footspeed will affect his much lauded defense. I don't share your optimism that he'll be as quick in a year or two as he was last year.

  By the way, notice that while you say that we should have signed him for 4 years you only want to discuss his production in the first 2 years?

I thought his D was slacking last year anyways. Against Lebron he looked awful in the second round IMO, Pierce played much better D against Lebron IIRC.

When you factor in how much of his time was at PF - and how much better Leon Powe is at that spot, he doesn't make sense at that price. The real difference this year is KG is playing almost no Center whereas last year he played lots.

[Hoops]

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose and his potential importance to a contending team. I'm pretty sure CLE and LA both showed interest in Pose.

the question was how much it was going to take to sign him and also what the team's need was at that position.

My understanding was always that, sure, several teams were interested in Posey, but none of them (except NO) wanted to sign him for more than 3 years. I could be totally wrong, but my memory suggests that Boston's offer was reported as being Posey's 2nd best offer. If that's true, then the "other" contending teams that were "interested" weren't really THAT interested...

[BballTim]

  There was only one team among the contenders in the league that seemed to have shared your opinion of Posey and they might be having second thoughts. It's easy to say that Wyc was cheap, but if Posey's as good this year and next as you think he is then there are a number of teams that he could have helped.

I'm pretty sure there was more than one team that shared my opinion of Pose and his potential importance to a contending team. I'm pretty sure CLE and LA both showed interest in Pose.

the question was how much it was going to take to sign him and also what the team's need was at that position.

we have a clear need at Pose's spot. so that is a factor too.

  That's the point. They showed interest and decided he wasn't worth the money.

[BballTim]

everything is so polarized here. When did it become a given the Posey will be a "has-been" in 2010 and 2011?

I've given you concrete recent examples of players that continue to be effective in similar years to when you are claiming he will be a has-been.

  What if I came up with examples of players who didn't continue to be effective? What would that prove?