Where's Powe's Jump Shot?

[Fan from VT]

A better question is, where's Powe...and why is big baby getting more minutes than him.

because baby plays better team defense (specifically, rotating), and doc wants the second unit to be defense first.

You know, we hear this a lot, but is it true?

Points allowed per 100 possessions (team):

Powe on the court: 97.6

BBD on the court: 103.8

Points allowed per 48 minutes (team):

Powe on the court: 86.5

BBD on the court: 91.2

Net point differential:

Powe: +7.1 pts/48 minutes, +8.6 pts/100 possessions

BBD: +0.4 pts/48 minutes, +1.2 pts/100 possessions

Plus/minus:

Powe:  +105, +.182/minute

BBD: +41, +0.068/minute (second worst on the team, behind Bill Walker)

Opponent's production (primary position):

Powe: .440 eFG%, 19.4 pts, 10.3 reb, 15.5 PER

BBD: .497 eFG%, 15.7 pts, 11.2 reb, 13.4 PER

Net production vs. opponent (primary position):

Powe: +.108 eFG%, +1.3 pts, +2.1 reb, +3.3 PER

BBD: -0.149 eFG%, -4.3 pts, -1.5 reb, -3.9 PER

====================================================

What do those stats tell us?  They say that the team allows fewer points, and outscores their opponent by a significantly larger margin, when Leon is in the game.  If BBD's team defensive is much better, that isn't shown statistically.

In terms of man to man defense, Leon allows a lower eFG% and gets more rebounds, but BBD allows fewer points, due to free throw attempts (+3.0 when Powe is guarding opponents) and more shot attempts.

So, there is no evidence that the team plays better defense with BBD in the game over Powe.  Most importantly, though, there is absolutely *zero* evidence that the team plays better overall with BBD in there.  The teams point differential, by any measure, is much better with Leon in the game.

Well when assessing BBD, you have to watch the games, because these numbers are not fair to him.  It's clear to me from watching whose the better defender (BBD).  Powe gets to play close to the basket, while BBD plays away from the basket when he plays with Powe.  Powe gets to play under the basket and grab rebounds more rebounds and take higher percentage shots, while BBD plays the perimeter and shoots more lower percentage shots (mostly when playing with Powe).

Is there away to check these numbers for both of those guys, but only the numbers when they play alongside KG?  I think that would be a more fair comparison.

It doesn't matter HOW BBD looks while playing defense, or WHERE each has to play, the fact is those stats (which I was looking at last night too), simply do not support the idea that Davis is a significantly better team defender than Powe. When comparing the two players, many say that Davis is more valuable because of his team defense. This always strikes me as a highly suspect argument to make because it is very difficult to confirm or deny. However, if Davis were such a good team defender, why would the Celtics' defense be better with Powe in than with Davis? That's what the numbers above indicate: When Davis is in, opponents score more points than when Powe is in. That is the definition of team defense, and the style with which one player plays defense does not alter the net outcome or make the outcome any more or less beneficial for the team.



I can't speak for Roy, but I'm not standing here claiming that Powe is a better defender than Davis. I'm simply agreeing that IF Davis is a better defender, then that fact does not manifest itself in the team results. Thus I'm suspicious that when comparing the two, if Powe is better at everything, except that Davis's team defense swings the pendulum in his favor, but there are no indications that his team defense actually is any better, the argument begins to sound specious.


Also, about the black hole/passing:

Player A: .7 assists per game, 1.7 assists per 40 min.
Player B: .6 assists per game, 1.6 assists per 40 min.


One player is the "black hole," the other is the "high post facilitator." Which is which?

[crownsy]

ok, i'll tell you what. I'll give you the argument that "what he looks like playing defense doesn't matter, only stats do!" point if i can STOP HEARING that scal plays way better defense than the numbers show and i have to trust my eyes over stats.

Fair's fair, if it doesn't count for a guy you don't like, it shouldn't for one you do.

[BudweiserCeltic]

I wonder how those stats considers some of these elements and how it affects their numbers:

1) Who does Doc leave on the floor while struggling more often? I think Doc leaves Baby longer while Powe has a shorter leash (let me know if I'm wrong)... how does that affect the numbers?

2) It's quite evident that Powe can dominate and destroy lesser teams and lesser defenders more than Davis can... how does that affect the numbers?

3) Do those stats consider frequency/consistency?

4) Do does stats consider that Davis is usually guarding the best big man on the floor?

5) If Powe misses a defensive assignment and that person is the one that is matched up on paper with Davis, do the points work against Davis or Powe?

6) The plus minus numbers are heavily reliant of the person being on the floor while someone gets hot and just the same if someone goes cold.

I can go on, but I think you guys can get the gist of it.

[moiso]

ok, i'll tell you what. I'll give you the argument that "what he looks like playing defense doesn't matter, only stats do!" point if i can STOP HEARING that scal plays way better defense than the numbers show and i have to trust my eyes over stats.

Fair's fair, if it doesn't count for a guy you don't like, it shouldn't for one you do.

I think Scal does play pretty good defense, but I swear we notice the goofy looking players more.

[moiso]

And Tommy is very guilty of this.  If Scal or Baby dives on the floor, the crowd goes crazy, Tommy goes crazy.  If Ray does the same thing, the reaction is ten times less.

[Who]

I think Scal does play pretty good defense, but I swear we notice the goofy looking players more.

True Statement

[Fan from VT]

ok, i'll tell you what. I'll give you the argument that "what he looks like playing defense doesn't matter, only stats do!" point if i can STOP HEARING that scal plays way better defense than the numbers show and i have to trust my eyes over stats.

Fair's fair, if it doesn't count for a guy you don't like, it shouldn't for one you do.

To be fair, Crownsy, I agree: the numbers do say that the C's play better team D without Scal than with Scal on the floor. I like to use observation and numbers, but at least try to be consistent in application no matter which player I'm looking at. And to me, I'm not much impressed by either Baby or Scal.

[crownsy]

I think Scal does play pretty good defense, but I swear we notice the goofy looking players more.

True Statement

I dont think so Who, I just notice scal consitantly getting beat of the dribble and smoked.

He plays decent defense, but to here some of the posts defending him, you'd think he's james posey 2.0

but every time i bring it up im told "oh, you just don't like him because he doesn't look like a basketball player" which isn't true, i dislike him because i think hes a subpar NBA player who should be upgraded ASAP if we have serious championship aspirations.

[crownsy]

ok, i'll tell you what. I'll give you the argument that "what he looks like playing defense doesn't matter, only stats do!" point if i can STOP HEARING that scal plays way better defense than the numbers show and i have to trust my eyes over stats.

Fair's fair, if it doesn't count for a guy you don't like, it shouldn't for one you do.

To be fair, Crownsy, I agree: the numbers do say that the C's play better team D without Scal than with Scal on the floor. I like to use observation and numbers, but at least try to be consistent in application no matter which player I'm looking at. And to me, I'm not much impressed by either Baby or Scal.

im not the biggest BBD fan either, and im on recored as saying if it comes down to one of them, keep leon, but it just annoys me when stats are ignored for one player but for another there somehow super relevant. (not saying you do this VT, but alot of posters do on the scal and BBD threads)

[RockinRyA]

I think with any young player that player will first do the things they feel comfortable with, the things have confidence in, and the things that their coaches encourage them to do.

I don't get the sense that this coaching staff is encouraging or even hinting at the fact that they want Leon taking a 15 foot jump shot. Leon and Baby play together a lot this year and I think coming into the season the coaching staff knew that was going to be the way of things. Seeing that Leon is a tremendous offensive rebounder/garbage man/post player I think the coaches envisioned him being the post man in the second team offense and Baby being the perimeter big that Doc runs his offense with.

Baby sets much better screens than Leon, seems to be a bit more nimble in the open floor than Leon, and seemed to have better range than Leon, so the coaches had Baby work on the outside shot and had Leon work with Coach Ray with his post moves and rebounding and defense.

Hence, no jumper for Leon, a jumper for Baby, and BBD running all over the place on the perimeter and high post setting screens for pick and pops and Leon trying to get positioning underneath.

I really do believe it is all from design and what roles the coaches pegged each into. I don't think either had much of a choice as to what to work on and what to do in game situations. They are just different players in different roles. On the first team offense Perk plays Leon's role and KG is Baby's role.

I think this is a great post. I think much of Powe's shot selection is by design, and rightly so: Powe is shooting .533 for the season by working down low. He also is tremendous at drawing fouls, the best on the Celtics. He's posting a 59.3 true shooting percentage, and his PER is still over 16. He's also shooting .278 on jump shots. He's also a much better rebounder than Davis, so they want him closer to the rim. It would be great if he could hit the open jumper consistently, but right now, I think the coaches want him staying down low to maximize his high shooting percentage, foul drawing, and rebounding.


I think one problem is that Davis stays outside by design of the coaches, but he really isn't suited to that role. Davis and Powe are probably suited to the same post role, but Powe is much better at it so they play Davis out. But his jumper is also terrible, at .272 for the year. He's just not as good at drawing fouls or rebounding, so when the two play together it's better to have Powe closer in.

As an aside, I'm not so sure Davis is that good at setting picks. He gets called for a ton of moving screens, and it looks like they could call an illegal pick on every one he sets.


As another interesting aside, overall the C's team defense performs better with Powe on the court than Davis, so I'm not sure that it's simple to conclude that Davis is clearly the better defender.

Perk is the king of moving screens, he gets them nearly every game. Back to the shot clock debate I dont think leon even had a clue what was left. By the time he got the ball he had around 5 seconds or somehwere around that much, and a man was hanging all over him. I think if Leon took the time to look across half court for the time he would have had the ball slapped away.

No.  Leon just got the pass from Eddie who was at the top of the key, so he knew exactly where Eddie was.  The correct move would have been to pass it right back to House for the open 3 when he knew he really didn't have a move, but unfortunately, he rarely passes once he gets the ball down low.

thats my observation too.. he rarely passes even if he gets into a bad position.. you can almost expect him to force

[Fan from VT]

I wonder how those stats considers some of these elements and how it affects their numbers:

1) Who does Doc leave on the floor while struggling more often? I think Doc leaves Baby longer while Powe has a shorter leash (let me know if I'm wrong)... how does that affect the numbers?

2) It's quite evident that Powe can dominate and destroy lesser teams and lesser defenders more than Davis can... how does that affect the numbers?

3) Do those stats consider frequency/consistency?

4) Do does stats consider that Davis is usually guarding the best big man on the floor?

5) If Powe misses a defensive assignment and that person is the one that is matched up on paper with Davis, do the points work against Davis or Powe?

6) The plus minus numbers are heavily reliant of the person being on the floor while someone gets hot and just the same if someone goes cold.

I can go on, but I think you guys can get the gist of it.

1) Can't say for sure, but I know I wish Doc had a longer leash with Powe. He really seems to play much better when he gets into the flow of the game; I think the short leash hurts his numbers because he doesn't have a chance to correct them. On the flip side, it sure seems like I've seen Davis come into a game and make a couple quick nice plays, like a rebound and an assist, then check the box score and it turns out he finished the game with about 1 assist and 3 rebounds and 2 points in 12 minutes...in other words he often seems to make a quick splash then not do too much else.

2) Not sure. I don't have numbers for specific opponents so it's hard to say if one does consistently better against better competition.

3) No, they don't. But they do consider the whole body of work over the season, so they do measure consistency in that regard. In other words, last year people would often point to Davis's great Detroit game and great game vs. Duncan. But those were pretty much his only great games of the year; the rest were quite underwhelming so overall he had a pretty underwhelming year. Powe, on the other hand, had an exceptional overall year last year without many standout games. This seems to indicate that Powe game last season at least was more consistent, no? So consistency is measured in that regard.

4) I don't know about this, I think Davis is usually guarding the biggest guy on the floor, which is not his fault. It's more of an indication that we have 2 power forwards and no center on our bench. This certainly affects Davis's individual numbers on defense. This is a very valid point, which is why I'm careful to say: "the numbers do not confirm that Davis is a better team defender than Powe" instead of "the numbers prove that Powe is a better team defender than Davis."

5) No, as far as I know if the play against whom Powe is matched scores, no matter the switch, etc., that counts against Powe. However, most of this discussion is about team defense anyway, in which against whom specifically the points were scored does not matter.

6) True, but 40 games into the season most of these unexpected nuances even out, and different players get hot, and different players get to play with different hot players.



I think the most legitimate point is that Davis has to play out of position at center much of the time. This is not his fault, it's more of a roster problem. However, if Davis and Powe were always on the court together, their team defense numbers would be the same. The fact that Powe's is positive and Davis's is negative means that, for whatever reason, when Powe plays while Davis is out the defense does better, and when Davis plays and Powe is out the defense does worse. At least so far this season.

[Fan from VT]

ok, i'll tell you what. I'll give you the argument that "what he looks like playing defense doesn't matter, only stats do!" point if i can STOP HEARING that scal plays way better defense than the numbers show and i have to trust my eyes over stats.

Fair's fair, if it doesn't count for a guy you don't like, it shouldn't for one you do.

To be fair, Crownsy, I agree: the numbers do say that the C's play better team D without Scal than with Scal on the floor. I like to use observation and numbers, but at least try to be consistent in application no matter which player I'm looking at. And to me, I'm not much impressed by either Baby or Scal.

im not the biggest BBD fan either, and im on recored as saying if it comes down to one of them, keep leon, but it just annoys me when stats are ignored for one player but for another there somehow super relevant. (not saying you do this VT, but alot of posters do on the scal and BBD threads)

Completely agreed. I think one should be as consistent and fair as possible in their methods of evaluating a player.

[nickagneta]

I thought Roy brought some interesting stats to the table regarding who was the better defender statistically but some of the stats he pointed to that confirmed his thesis came from team derived stats such as points per 100 possessions, points per 48 minutes, team point differential and +/-. These are all stats that help but are also reliant upon who you are playing with and when.

So I went to 82games.com and decided to look at exactly who these guys were playing with. Obviously the above stats are the same when they are both on the floor together and unchanged when both are off the floor together. So what needs to be looked at is who are they playing with the most when either one is on the floor without the other that would turn the stats in Powe's favor.

#   Unit                                                                     Min      Off         Def        +/-      W      L    Win%
 1 Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins        813     1.13     0.99     +216   26      10    72.2
 2 House-T.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Davis               114     1.06     0.97     +23      13      10   56.5
 3 House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Powe-Davis                82     1.09     0.96     +18      10      10   50.0
 4 Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Davis             59     1.11     1.00     +13        9        7    56.2
 5 Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Garnett             57     1.17     0.80     +40        7        2    77.7
 6 Rondo-T.Allen-R.Allen-Garnett-Perkins         44     1.10     1.12       -3         8        8    50.0
 7 House-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins          43     1.11     1.01      +9        8         9    47.0
 8 Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Scalabrine    41     1.25     1.09     +15       3         0    100
 9 House-T.Allen-Powe-Scalabrine-Davis         40     1.09     1.15       -4         4        4    50.0
10 House-Pruitt-T.Allen-Powe-Davis                  26     0.91     0.96      -1          3        2    60.0
11 Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Davis-Perkins         20     0.96     1.32      -14        3        6    33.3
12 House-R.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Davis              19     0.71     1.07      -12         1        3   25.0
13 Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Scalabrine-Perkins 19     1.23     0.88      +12        2        0   100
14 House-Pruitt-T.Allen-Scalabrine-O'Bryant    18     0.77     0.83       -1         3        1    75.0
15 House-Pruitt-Pierce-Powe-Davis                  18     1.15     1.25        -9         1        3    25.0
16 Pruitt-T.Allen-Scalabrine-Davis-O'Bryant  17     1.05     1.18        +0        2        2   50.0
17 House-Pruitt-T.Allen-Powe-Scalabrine      17     1.06     1.17        -7          1        3   25.0
18 House-T.Allen-R.Allen-Garnett-Davis          16     1.18     0.93        +9        6        3   66.6
19 Rondo-House-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett         16     0.76     1.39        -14       5        8   38.4
20 Rondo-T.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Perkins        15     1.01     1.19        -2         5        6   45.4


So what light does this shed on the subject?

Well first that it appears that of the most common rotations, BBD is used more often and in a larger number of rotations as he is in 5 rotations in the top 20 that don't have Powe while Powe is in only 2 that don't have Davis.

The combos that they are in most often without each other is when each one plays with all the starters. Here Powe has a decided difference which probably accounts for his numbers being better than Baby's. When each substitutes for Perk the breakdown is as follows:


4 Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Garnett-Davis             59     1.11     1.00     +13        9        7    56.2
 5 Rondo-R.Allen-Pierce-Powe-Garnett             57     1.17     0.80     +40        7        2    77.7

All the numbers that Roy quoted are significantly in Powe's favor. Does that mean he's a better defender than Baby? I don't think so. I think what it tells us is that he is a better fit for that combination. In the starting rotation Perk, the center,  is the post man and KG, the PF, is the big on the perimeter. On the second team Powe, the PF, is the man in the post and Baby, the C, is the man on the perimeter on the offensive end. When Powe plays with the starters on offense he is substituting for Perkins role, a role he is familiar with because that is what he plays on second team. But when Baby plays with that group, both he and KG are used to playing on the perimeter and hence the offense doesn't work as well. That would account for the discrepancy offensively.

On the defensive side though this combo also favors Powe. When Powe is in the game with that unit of RA, PP, KG, and RR, Powe takes the smaller, less physical of the two opposing big men as KG is better suited to guard the centers. When Baby plays with the same unit, it is Davis that takes the larger, more imposing opposing player. In other words, the tougher assignment physically where he is guarding men often much taller than himself whereas Powe often guards people more his own size.

Other info in the 5 man units data show that when they play together Powe and Baby are actually pretty effective when playing together and with House and TAllen. Familiarity of playing with the same people and playing the same role shows itself here. When the less played combos are on the floor it is pretty easy to see that the unfamiliarity of playing with the same people shows up as 8 of the 11 least used combos all are in in the minus, some in double digits so.

Anyway, I'm not sure that any of the data I supplied sheds any more or less light on who is the better defender. There is data that goes both ways. But when comparing the two defensively we need to note that both play different positions and different roles. So statistical data could be misleading and therefore it is incumbent upon us to observe the two and decide who is the better man defender and who is the better team defender. In both cases I see Baby being a better defender. But not by a ton. 

[Fan from VT]

On the defensive side though this combo also favors Powe. When Powe is in the game with that unit of RA, PP, KG, and RR, Powe takes the smaller, less physical of the two opposing big men as KG is better suited to guard the centers. When Baby plays with the same unit, it is Davis that takes the larger, more imposing opposing player. In other words, the tougher assignment physically where he is guarding men often much taller than himself whereas Powe often guards people more his own size. 

I would argue that the reason Powe fits with the starters better is because when either Powe or Davis substitutes in for Perkins, they really get to play power forward, their natural position, a position at which Powe is simply better.

When Powe plays with the starters on offense he is substituting for Perkins role, a role he is familiar with because that is what he plays on second team. But when Baby plays with that group, both he and KG are used to playing on the perimeter and hence the offense doesn't work as well. That would account for the discrepancy offensively.

I would also argue that Baby and Powe are equally familiar with interior work, but that Powe is significantly better at it, which is why he mans the block when both are in at the same time. Baby played the post all through college and plays the role when he's with the starters; he's just not as good at is as Powe. As for being used to playing on the perimeter, I don't think that's true. The team is trying to teach him to do so, but so far his passing has been underwhelming and his shooting terrible. That's not the position he's used to, it's one he's trying to learn.

[Fan from VT]

When Baby plays with the same unit, it is Davis that takes the larger, more imposing opposing player. In other words, the tougher assignment physically where he is guarding men often much taller than himself whereas Powe often guards people more his own size.

Also, I don't agree with this logic. If it were advantageous to have Baby guard the bigger player, that would show up in that unit's +/-. If Powe and Davis were interchangeable defensive players, then there should be no difference between Powe/KG and Davis/KG as once on the court each would guard the opponent that best suits them. In other words, if Powe takes the 4 and KG the 5 in the Powe/KG tandem, why wouldn't Davis take the 4 again in the Davis/KG tandem? If Davis/KG defend better with Davis at the 4, then why would they play Davis at the 5 and hurt the overall team numbers? Doesn't make sense.