This has gone a long ways since I last posted last night!
Here is the key thing that I was trying to point out. Yes we are in the discussion still of the top 3 teams, however I think that based on those matchups that Cleveland is the best of the three. The only reason we won that series last year was because we did a good job of forcing Lebron to shoot outside jumpers and he couldn't knock them down. He is doing a MUCH better job this year of shooting from the outside and playing a LOT better defense than he was last year. This in itself is enough to tip the scales their way. Adding Mo Williams and a healthier Big Z and they are the better overall. Especially when the refs give Lebron "Jordan" treatment.
I am not saying we can't beat them, but I am a lot more confident in our matchup against the Lakers than I am against the CAVS. We have a lot of work to be done to get there though. If we play the Bulls I would sit KG. We can beat them without him and I'd rather have him healthy. Without him being healthy we can't beat the CAVS in 7 games with them having home court.
One thing that is overlooked about the way the C's handled Lebron last year is not that they allowed him to take 3's, but they forced him to take 3's, out of rhythm. Even last year, when he was shooting in rhythm, he was still a decent 3 point shooter.
This can be best witnessed in the way the C's handled Kobe, whom they guarded the same way, despite his better outside shooting, and had the same success.
It can also be witnessed in the two home games against the Cavs this year, where the C's executed in a similar fashion to last years playoffs.
The problem has been that in the two games in Cleveland this year, the C's have simply not executed their defense. They have not shown the aggressiveness and focus that they showed playing at home, and that has led to Lebron being able to comfortably step into his shots, instead of taking off balance, and out of rhythm shots.
The real question for the playoffs is not going to be how good Lebron is, it is going to be whether the C's can find their edge again, and execute the way they are capable of.
I agree that Lebron was able to have better looks, but some of that goes to who we have defending him. We don't have Posey who was longer and able to challenge him more. PP is tired and not getting out quite as well. TA isn't big enough to do much, although that one shot Lebron hit he was right on his hand".
I would just argue that this year it is Cleveland who can say that if they play their game the way they should that we won't beat them, where last year it was the reverse. I'd like to think that we were in control, but their swarming defense is what we had last year that they didn't. Unfortunately in the regular season we lost it. We don't come out and clamp down on teams in the 1st and 3rd like we did last year. If we don't get it back we aren't getting #18.
Actually, TA is perfectly capable of Making Lebron uncomfortable. He is actually the perfect option for that. He has the footspeed to stay in front of him (at least somewhat), while being able to get up underneath him, so that if Lebron tries to shoot over him, he will not be able to step into the shot.
The problem is, for this to work, it means the bigs need to be hedging hard (and the backside rotation needs to be sharp, so Lebron can't just pick apart the defense for layups for his big men), which allows the guy covering Lebron to show him one way, and get on his shooting hand, without giving him the lane (because it is clogged by the big men hedging, and filling on the back side).
This is where they are really missing KG and even Scal. While Perk is great at this, you need to have 2 big men who are always in the right place (and the guards need to be alert as well for the backside help). Davis is good at it, but he isn't nearly as good as KG and Scal, and he also doesn't have the size to protect the basket that KG does. When you are using KG and Perk together, you have one guy hedging on the frontside, and the other filling on the backside, and both can stick on the perimeter, and protect the rim equally well, and it allows the perimeter defenders to be more aggressive, and make Lebron very uncomfortable.