Division/Wild Card situation for the Patriots

[CelticsWhat35]

I know the basics of the tie-breakers, but could anyone break down what the best situation is for the Pats.  For instance, does it help or hurt them if the division ends in a 3-way tie as opposed to 2-way (assuming the same division record)?  What about for Wild Card with the Colts and Ravens?  I know they lose the head-to-head with Indy, but does the Ravens enterning a 3-way tie change anything?

I know a lot can/will change over the last few weeks, but it's nice to have an idea going in.

[Roy Hobbs]

Here are the playoff tie-breakers:  Link.

The Jets are 1-1 against the Pats, 1-0 against Miami
The Pats are 1-1 against the Jets, 1-1 against Miami
Miami is 1-1 against the Pats, 0-1 against the Jets

The Jets and Miami play the last weekend of the season. 

In terms of the division, the Jets are currently 3-1 (pending games with Buffalo and Miami), the Pats are currently 3-2 (pending game with Buffalo), and the Dolphins are currently 3-2 (pending game with the Jets).

If all three teams finish with the same record, all finish 1-1 against each other, and all go 4-2 in the division (a realistic possibility), then the tie will be broken through best record in common games, followed by best record in games within the conference.

As for the wild card, somebody else can help.

[Donoghus]

Christopher Glasper had a great article on this yesterday:

SANTA CLARA, Calif. - Bill Belichick is the type of coach who doesn't leave anything to chance, but when it comes to his team's chance of reaching postseason play with three games to go, Belichick is taking a pass on breaking down playoff scenarios.

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COMMENTS (24)
"All I know is that there are a lot of teams in contention," said Belichick yesterday. "So right now we're worried about Oakland. We'll win as many games as we can. I'm sure if we qualify somebody will let us know."

Lost in the euphoria of the Patriots' season-saving 24-21 victory Sunday over the Seattle Seahawks - a win that put them in a three-way tie for first place in the AFC East - was the very sobering reality that even if they win their final three games of the season (at Oakland, home against Arizona, and at Buffalo), they still might have their noses pressed to the playoff glass come January.

Since the NFL went to a playoff format of six teams per conference in 1990, no 11-5 team has ever missed the postseason. But the Patriots (8-5) find themselves in the precarious position of needing a little help from their foes to avoid the ignominious honor of becoming the first team to do so. It's not enough for them to win. They need other teams to lose.

"It's always a tough situation when you have to depend on other people, other teams, to beat this team, or 'This team needs to win,' " said defensive end Richard Seymour. "You never want to be in a situation like that, where you have to depend on somebody else. I think we have an opportunity in front of us, and it's up to us to take advantage of it."

It almost seems unfair that a team that has overcome injury after injury after injury could finish 11-5 and get sent home. But it could happen.

The New York Jets and Miami Dolphins, who are tied with the Patriots atop the AFC East, control their own playoff destinies. Win out and win the division. The two meet in the final week of the season at Giants Stadium, so they both can't finish 11-5. However, either would win the division at 11-5 over an 11-5 Patriots team.

The first tiebreaker in any scenario is head-to-head play. The Patriots split with both Miami and the Jets. Within a division, the second tiebreaker is division record. The third is record vs. common opponents and the fourth is conference record.

If the Jets win out, they'll win the AFC East by virtue of division record, which would be 5-1. The Patriots can't finish any better than 4-2 in the division.

If Miami wins out, it would edge the Patriots on the basis of conference record. Both the Patriots and Dolphins would be 4-2 in the division and 10-2 against common opponents, but Miami would end up 8-4 in conference play. The Patriots can't do any better than 7-5.

The outlook isn't much better when it comes to the AFC's two wild-card slots, currently held by the Indianapolis Colts and Baltimore Ravens, both of whom are 9-4.

The Patriots would need the Colts to lose two of their final three games to beat them out because Indy defeated New England this season.

In a two-team wild-card tie, conference record is the second tiebreaker, which gives Baltimore the edge if it finished in a tie with the Patriots at 11-5. The Ravens are 7-3 in AFC play with conference games left against the Steelers and Jaguars.

Of course, trying to project playoff scenarios with three games to go is like trying to predict where a single snowflake will land in a blizzard.

The Ravens could lose two games and the Patriots are in at 11-5, or the Jets and Dolphins both could finish 10-6. Or it could all be rendered irrelevant by a Patriots loss, something they probably can't afford at this point.

"Yeah, probably not, that's the way it's looking," said receiver Wes Welker. "We got to make sure we're bringing it each and every week. The playoffs are almost starting a few weeks earlier."

"All we can do is take it one game at a time," said Seymour. "A lot of people say, 'Well, you've got to win.' But we don't know what we have to do yet. I think that our goal right now is just to go in and get a win in Oakland and let the chips fall where they may. We can't control what some other team does."

[CelticsWhat35]

After all the games were over last night, I wanted to check to see what time the Pats, Jets, Dolphins and Ravens were playing in week 17, as those were the 3 games that had implications on the Pats' playoff chances.  When I looked at the list, it said that all three games were at 1:00, which I was happy about, because it meant that the Jets absolutely had something to play for going into their game.

But then the flex schedule came out and bumped the Jets-Dolphins game to 4:15, as well as the Ravens-Jags game.  Granted, I would prefer those two games to be at 1 and the Pats game at 4:15, just so I know what, if anything, the Pats are playing for.  But I also thought that if the Pats won, it would mean the Jets would have nothing to play for and thus lay down and lose to the Dolphins.

Although looking at the tie-breaker scenarios, and correct me if I'm wrong, but the Jets would win a 3-way tie-breaker with the Dolphins and Ravens if the Ravens lost and Jets won, because of division record, right?

It sucks to have to rely on other teams, especially a Jets win, in order to make the playoffs.  But for the Pats to even find themselves in this position with all the injuries they've endured this season is pretty remarkable.

[Redz]

I thought it would have been fun for the Jets to win yesterday so the Pats would need a TIE in the Dolphins/Jets game next week as their best scenario to get in.  Can you imagine if that game went to OT with the Pats being the beneficiary of a tie and both teams being losers if it ended in a tie.

Do you think one team would have let the other score if time was running out just to spite the Pats? 

I really hope they figure out the time slot ordeal in a sensible way next week.

[QuinielaBox]

Here are the playoff tie-breakers:  Link.

The Jets are 1-1 against the Pats, 1-0 against Miami
The Pats are 1-1 against the Jets, 1-1 against Miami
Miami is 1-1 against the Pats, 0-1 against the Jets

The Jets and Miami play the last weekend of the season. 

In terms of the division, the Jets are currently 3-1 (pending games with Buffalo and Miami), the Pats are currently 3-2 (pending game with Buffalo), and the Dolphins are currently 3-2 (pending game with the Jets).

If all three teams finish with the same record, all finish 1-1 against each other, and all go 4-2 in the division (a realistic possibility), then the tie will be broken through best record in common games, followed by best record in games within the conference.

As for the wild card, somebody else can help.

New England beats Buffalo
Baltimore loses or ties against Jacksonville
Miami beats Jets

Miami wins Division
New England gains the 6 seed.

Qbox goes to Miami in 2 weeks.

[CelticsWhat35]

Here are the playoff tie-breakers:  Link.

The Jets are 1-1 against the Pats, 1-0 against Miami
The Pats are 1-1 against the Jets, 1-1 against Miami
Miami is 1-1 against the Pats, 0-1 against the Jets

The Jets and Miami play the last weekend of the season. 

In terms of the division, the Jets are currently 3-1 (pending games with Buffalo and Miami), the Pats are currently 3-2 (pending game with Buffalo), and the Dolphins are currently 3-2 (pending game with the Jets).

If all three teams finish with the same record, all finish 1-1 against each other, and all go 4-2 in the division (a realistic possibility), then the tie will be broken through best record in common games, followed by best record in games within the conference.

As for the wild card, somebody else can help.

New England beats Buffalo
Baltimore loses or ties against Jacksonville
Miami beats Jets

Miami wins Division
New England gains the 6 seed.

Qbox goes to Miami in 2 weeks.

I think the Baltimore defense losing to the Jacksonville offense is about the least likely thing that's gonna happen next week, so I just wanted to make sure that the Jets had SOMETHING to play for on Sunday if the Patriots win.

[Amonkey]

On Sportscenter, they said this about the division spot:

Miami wins the division if they beat the Jets

Jets wins the division if they beat Miami and Patriots lose to Buffalo

Patriots win if they beat Buffalo and Jets beat Miami



Now I don't know what the Ravens situation is.

[yall hate]

Now I don't know what the Ravens situation is.

Ravens win the wildcard if they win.  If they lose and the pats win then the pats are the wildcard.

[noro]

Both scenarios are based on a Pats win

-Baltimore loss, Jets win : We win the division, Jets are wild-card.
-Baltimore win, Jets win : We win the division, Ravens are wild-card.
-Baltimore loss, Miami win : Fins win the division, We are wild-card.
-Baltimore win, Miami win : Fins win the division, Ravens are wild-card

Those are the basic scenarios.

[Redz]

On Sportscenter, they said this about the division spot:

Miami wins the division if they beat the Jets

Jets wins the division if they beat Miami and Patriots lose to Buffalo

Patriots win if they beat Buffalo and Jets beat Miami



Now I don't know what the Ravens situation is.

I'm pretty certain the Ravens are in with a win.  They win a tiebreaker with the Pats (if Pats don't win the division), and if the Pats do win the Division then they'd have a better record than both the Jets & Miami.

[Amonkey]

On Sportscenter, they said this about the division spot:

Miami wins the division if they beat the Jets

Jets wins the division if they beat Miami and Patriots lose to Buffalo

Patriots win if they beat Buffalo and Jets beat Miami



Now I don't know what the Ravens situation is.

I'm pretty certain the Ravens are in with a win.  They win a tiebreaker with the Pats (if Pats don't win the division), and if the Pats do win the Division then they'd have a better record than both the Jets & Miami.

So what would happen if Ravens and Miami lose but the Patriots win (meaning Patriots dont get the division).  Who gets the wildcard spot, Ravens, Patriots, or Miami?

[Redz]

On Sportscenter, they said this about the division spot:

Miami wins the division if they beat the Jets

Jets wins the division if they beat Miami and Patriots lose to Buffalo

Patriots win if they beat Buffalo and Jets beat Miami



Now I don't know what the Ravens situation is.

I'm pretty certain the Ravens are in with a win.  They win a tiebreaker with the Pats (if Pats don't win the division), and if the Pats do win the Division then they'd have a better record than both the Jets & Miami.

So what would happen if Ravens and Miami lose but the Patriots win (meaning Patriots dont get the division).  Who gets the wildcard spot, Ravens, Patriots, or Miami?

Then none of them make it on principle 

No, I'm guessing the same tiebreakers that worked against the Pats in the "ALL WIN" scenario work against them here, so they're out. 

ummm...not sure...

[Amonkey]

Yeah, I didnt see that scenario when I was writing that post.  Thanks.  Now I have too many teams to root for and against while I watch the Pats.  I guess to be on the safe side, I'm gonna have to root for the Jets and overated Favre this sunday.

[CelticsWhat35]

On Sportscenter, they said this about the division spot:

Miami wins the division if they beat the Jets

Jets wins the division if they beat Miami and Patriots lose to Buffalo

Patriots win if they beat Buffalo and Jets beat Miami



Now I don't know what the Ravens situation is.

I'm pretty certain the Ravens are in with a win.  They win a tiebreaker with the Pats (if Pats don't win the division), and if the Pats do win the Division then they'd have a better record than both the Jets & Miami.

So what would happen if Ravens and Miami lose but the Patriots win (meaning Patriots dont get the division).  Who gets the wildcard spot, Ravens, Patriots, or Miami?

Alright, now I'm more confused.  If the Ravens and Dolphins both lost, wouldn't the Pats win the division?  They'd be at 11-5 and the other three teams would be 10-6.