This is a very interesting topic. TP, Roy.
I see the closest analogy to Warner being Steve Young, Steve Nash, and jason giami (assuming steroids are not an issue). Relatively short primes, average career totals (a big part of HoF voting), marked by high peaks and mvp awards. I know Nash will get in simply because of his MVP awards, which is too bad, because considering the numbers other hall of fame point guards (and chris paul) put up in there best seasons, Nash really didn't deserve those awards. I'd rather see him judged on actual accomplishments, not the subjective media storm surrounding his MVP seasons. If Warner wins MVP this year and brings the Cards into the playoffs a round or two, he's got to be in. If not, then a lot more depends on his continued play and building up his career totals.
I need help with this, but let's try to put Warner's position into context of his era (obviously "era" is a gray area and has much overlap). How does he rank in this era? I'd say we had the previous era featuring HoFers Young, Aikmen, Marino, and Elway. Then we move to this era, with Payton Manning, Favre, and Tom Brady being sure fire HoFers. Who is next? McNair has some very good passing/running numbers. He had a very high peak. McNabb, when done, will have good combined numbers as well. However, neither has had the peak of Warner in terms of playoff success and season MVPs. The next era i think will be kind of among Brees, Rivers, Roethlisberger, Palmer, Cutler (if ever back on track), aaron rodgers, matt ryan maybe, eli manning, etc. How many from each era go? 3-5? If so, with 3 spots locked up, you need at most 2 of McNair, McNabb, Warner. We'll see.