Red Sox 4 Angels 1 - ALDS Game 1

[Fan from VT]

Looks good in the 9th. 

Regardless of what happens now, here's some food for thought: how many games would the Sox have won had they stayed healthy and/or played in the AL West? 

And you can ask that same question and just change the division for pretty much every subsequent round of the playoffs. 

Hopefully Beckett can be his usual self come game 3. 

Another good question is "how many games should the angels have really won this year?"

They were only +68 in run differential, which is something I rarely heard people talk about. Run differential, like point differential, is a better indicator of how good a team is (or how successful a team will likely be in the future) than record. For reference, other AL run differences this year:
Red Sox +151
Tampa Bay +103
Toronto +104
New York +62
Chi Sox +84
Twins +82


Basically, the angels had the run differential of an 87 win team, meaning they were lucky to be leading in a lot of close games. Traditional knowledge holds that this is a good thing, because it shows the angels can win the close ones, but statistics show the opposite, that this is mostly luck and most often will eventually regress back to the mean. btw, the Sox "should" have won 96.7 games last year, so their results are really spot on.

[ma11l]

Looks good in the 9th. 

Regardless of what happens now, here's some food for thought: how many games would the Sox have won had they stayed healthy and/or played in the AL West? 

And you can ask that same question and just change the division for pretty much every subsequent round of the playoffs. 

Hopefully Beckett can be his usual self come game 3. 

Another good question is "how many games should the angels have really won this year?"

They were only +68 in run differential, which is something I rarely heard people talk about. Run differential, like point differential, is a better indicator of how good a team is (or how successful a team will likely be in the future) than record. For reference, other AL run differences this year:
Red Sox +151
Tampa Bay +103
Toronto +104
New York +62
Chi Sox +84
Twins +82


Basically, the angels had the run differential of an 87 win team, meaning they were lucky to be leading in a lot of close games. Traditional knowledge holds that this is a good thing, because it shows the angels can win the close ones, but statistics show the opposite, that this is mostly luck and most often will eventually regress back to the mean. btw, the Sox "should" have won 96.7 games last year, so their results are really spot on.

So they didn't regress to the mean over 162 games, but they're going to for games 163 to 167?  Especially against a team that's not really that great in close games?  I hope you're right.  Our bullpen has improved over the year so I do actually like our chances in the close ones against any team.

[Redz]

I loved the sequence of Ellsbury (rookie) making a great catch, Masterson (rookie) pitching a shutout 8th, Lowrie (rookie) starting up the 9th with a hit (and not losing his head after making a big error), then Ellsbury (still a rookie since last mentioned) knocking in an insurance run and reaching base for the 5th time.

Key stats to make you extra happy about the Red Sox. 

Age

Lester 24
Masterson 23
Lowrie 24
Pedroia 25
Ellsbury 25

Not to mention
Beckett 28
Papelbon 27
Dice K 28
Delcarmen 26
Youk 28

[nickagneta]

That is news to make one smile Redz and is a testament to Theo's handling of the scouting department and the minor league development that the Sox have set up since the last regime change. With the money the Sox have access to, their ability to scout and develop talent, and their current crop of major league talent not to mention the coaching and management on the parent team, this franchise is primed for a long run at dominance in this league.

I love post season baseball! The crowds are electric, the tension palpable, and the emotion at home as amazing as it gets.

I was sitting their scratching my head wondering what Tito was doing running Masterson out there but in retrospect I think it was a good strategy. The heart of that lineup are dead fastball hitters and dangerous fastball hitters to boot. Throwing Masterson out their with his lively breaking stuff and with the movement on his fastball, turned out to be a good move. Yeah, there were some tense moments but the rookie pulled it out in the end. I still thought Okajima was the safer move though.

[eat ur wheaties]

Sox-Bizarro Sox (Dodgers) WS!!!