I see now what dannys plan was, lineup is set

[wdleehi]

  For starters, PJ didn't contribute that much that we can't replace. But how do you know, for instance, that we won't get a solid contribution in the playoffs from Giddens or Walker or Pruitt?

There is no way of knowing.  That's why championship caliber teams rarely count on late picked rookies off their bench.

[cordobes]

Who has a significantly better bench than us right now?

House/Pruitt
T. Allen/Giddens
Walker/Scal
Powe/Davis
O'Bryant

It's not the best bench in the league, but it's not terrible.

Terrible is a strong adjective. But I'm with CoachBo here, it's not a championship bench right now. From what we know now, it's basically last year's bench without its two best players. Any reasonable person would exchange this bench for at least 10 of the others benches from the league.

One can't just assume that everything good will happen. Doing that maybe delusional. O'Bryant will be a reliable backup? Long shot. Who knows for sure? Powe and BBDavis will improve? Perhaps. Rondo, Perks? Ditto. Pruitt will show he's a NBA player? I don't know. Is Tony Allen go back an entire season to his few months of good production? How can one be sure of that? Can the rookies play? I don't think one can depend on wishful thinking so much.

There are evident flaws. We need size in the wings - tall swingmen with good jump-shots can kill Tony Allen. We need size in the frontcourt. Who's going to guard 7ft jump-shooters like Gasol, Ilgauskas, Dirk, if we face them in the playofs? We need experience. What if the 4 rookies (Pruitt and O'Bryant are basically in their 1st year) bust? Or 3 of them? We don't have a clear 6th man. If Allen doesn't improve, his turnover rate can be a killer in a playoffs series. More spacing wouldn't hurt.

Perhaps everybody will improve, or at least enough guys, to make this bench, as it stands, good enough to compete in the playoffs. But I'm pretty sure Ainge isn't counting on that. This bench can be enough to the regular season, but unless everything good really happens, and most of the players improve a lot, is not good enough to the playoffs.

  I think we'll end up signing another big, which Ainge pretty much alluded to. But the fact that you have (possibly rightly) PJ rated as our second best bench player last year is an indication of how weak in general our bench was last year in the playoffs. And even if our bench is worse our starters should be better.

If you think our bench was weak last year in the playoffs, you must be very worried. It's basically the same, without its best players, and with the addition of 4 rookies.

  Not really. Looking at our bench and only our bench things don't look great. But I'd expect that either O'Bryant will play decently or Ainge will sign another backup big and we'll end up about as well there as we were with PJ. I expect that whether it's Leo or Davis we'll get at least slightly better play from our backup pf. I think that the 16 minutes of backup pg play from the playoffs will be 5-6 minutes of Rondo and 10-11 minutes of House/Pruitt so that will be improved. I think Rondo's overall play will be better, especially his consistency. And I think that the year of experience and winning the ttitle will make our starting lineup in general a little better. All of these things (or at least many of them) will counteract any dropoff from Posey to Tony, which isn't necessarily game changing to begin with.

How do you know all that? How can you know that either O'Bryant will play good or Ainge will sign a big that will contribute at least as much as PJ, for example?

I'm analyzing things as they are now.

  For starters, PJ didn't contribute that much that we can't replace. But how do you know, for instance, that we won't get a solid contribution in the playoffs from Giddens or Walker or Pruitt?

I don't. Read my first quoted post. What I know is that it's not reasonable to expect that. Rookies generally don't give solid contributions in the playoffs. Very rare to happen, therefore it's not a reasonable expectation. It's not wise to rely on rookies.

Once again, how do you know all that?

[BballTim]

Who has a significantly better bench than us right now?

House/Pruitt
T. Allen/Giddens
Walker/Scal
Powe/Davis
O'Bryant

It's not the best bench in the league, but it's not terrible.

Terrible is a strong adjective. But I'm with CoachBo here, it's not a championship bench right now. From what we know now, it's basically last year's bench without its two best players. Any reasonable person would exchange this bench for at least 10 of the others benches from the league.

One can't just assume that everything good will happen. Doing that maybe delusional. O'Bryant will be a reliable backup? Long shot. Who knows for sure? Powe and BBDavis will improve? Perhaps. Rondo, Perks? Ditto. Pruitt will show he's a NBA player? I don't know. Is Tony Allen go back an entire season to his few months of good production? How can one be sure of that? Can the rookies play? I don't think one can depend on wishful thinking so much.

There are evident flaws. We need size in the wings - tall swingmen with good jump-shots can kill Tony Allen. We need size in the frontcourt. Who's going to guard 7ft jump-shooters like Gasol, Ilgauskas, Dirk, if we face them in the playofs? We need experience. What if the 4 rookies (Pruitt and O'Bryant are basically in their 1st year) bust? Or 3 of them? We don't have a clear 6th man. If Allen doesn't improve, his turnover rate can be a killer in a playoffs series. More spacing wouldn't hurt.

Perhaps everybody will improve, or at least enough guys, to make this bench, as it stands, good enough to compete in the playoffs. But I'm pretty sure Ainge isn't counting on that. This bench can be enough to the regular season, but unless everything good really happens, and most of the players improve a lot, is not good enough to the playoffs.

  I think we'll end up signing another big, which Ainge pretty much alluded to. But the fact that you have (possibly rightly) PJ rated as our second best bench player last year is an indication of how weak in general our bench was last year in the playoffs. And even if our bench is worse our starters should be better.

If you think our bench was weak last year in the playoffs, you must be very worried. It's basically the same, without its best players, and with the addition of 4 rookies.

  Not really. Looking at our bench and only our bench things don't look great. But I'd expect that either O'Bryant will play decently or Ainge will sign another backup big and we'll end up about as well there as we were with PJ. I expect that whether it's Leo or Davis we'll get at least slightly better play from our backup pf. I think that the 16 minutes of backup pg play from the playoffs will be 5-6 minutes of Rondo and 10-11 minutes of House/Pruitt so that will be improved. I think Rondo's overall play will be better, especially his consistency. And I think that the year of experience and winning the ttitle will make our starting lineup in general a little better. All of these things (or at least many of them) will counteract any dropoff from Posey to Tony, which isn't necessarily game changing to begin with.

How do you know all that? How can you know that either O'Bryant will play good or Ainge will sign a big that will contribute at least as much as PJ, for example?

I'm analyzing things as they are now.

  For starters, PJ didn't contribute that much that we can't replace. But how do you know, for instance, that we won't get a solid contribution in the playoffs from Giddens or Walker or Pruitt?

I don't. Read my first quoted post. What I know is that it's not reasonable to expect that. Rookies generally don't give solid contributions in the playoffs. Very rare to happen, therefore it's not a reasonable expectation. It's not wise to rely on rookies.

Once again, how do you know all that?

  What I know it's reasonable to expect that if O'Bryant proves incapable of backing up Perk then Ainge will find someone else, which he alluded to on the radio today. But what I posted was reasonable assumptions. I "know" that Rondo will be more consistent next year the same way you "know" that Tony Allen won't be better next year than Posey was last year or that you "know" that O'Bryant won't be better next year than PJ was this year. Which parts of my post do you consider to be so unlikely?

[BballTim]

  For starters, PJ didn't contribute that much that we can't replace. But how do you know, for instance, that we won't get a solid contribution in the playoffs from Giddens or Walker or Pruitt?

There is no way of knowing.  That's why championship caliber teams rarely count on late picked rookies off their bench.

  I realize that. I posed the question because it's ridiculous for him to expect people to justify their opinions more than he justifies his own.

[cordobes]

  What I know it's reasonable to expect that if O'Bryant proves incapable of backing up Perk then Ainge will find someone else, which he alluded to on the radio today. But what I posted was reasonable assumptions. I "know" that Rondo will be more consistent next year the same way you "know" that Tony Allen won't be better next year than Posey was last year or that you "know" that O'Bryant won't be better next year than PJ was this year. Which parts of my post do you consider to be so unlikely?

That Ainge will find a backup center as good as PJ, for example. Do you have any idea of who's going to be? And essentialy, that you believe that a sligthly better play from BBD or Powe will be relevant. If you consider that our bench was weak last season (for the record, I don't agree), I can't see how you don't consider this bench extremely weak.

  I realize that. I posed the question because it's ridiculous for him to expect people to justify their opinions more than he justifies his own.

I'd be glad to justify any of my opinions, if you request so.

[MLG5]

i want to say that i think this team, as built right now, is not as good as last year's team based on the fact that this team is based on too much uncertainty. that being said, i don't think danny is done making moves but with only $2.8m of the MLE and a shrinking free agent class, i'm not that excited at the prospects.

as always happens, fans get too carried away with their team's draft picks. don't get me wrong, i like giddens and walker but people need to remember that 29 teams passed on giddens and 46 teams passed on walker for a reason.  moreover, the fact that neither guy played in summer leagues does nothing to help their chances of contributing to next year's team. say what you will about the summer leagues, they at least allow rookies to play in a professional atmosphere and that is more productive than walker working out in wrentham or giddens working out in LA. i would be highly surprised if either makes any contributions to the team next year.

as for pruitt and POB, both have potential, no doubt. each are similar in that each has had a little taste of the nba but not enough where anyone knows what to expect from them.  for what its worth, pruitt lit up the NBDL last year and can clearly shoot the rock. but can he handle and facilitate an offense? i'm more torn on POB. from what i read i feel like nellie never gave him a chance because he was simply not adept at playing nellie-ball.  however, at the same time, people need to remember that this guy came out of nowhere to be drafted so high. he had a few spectacular games for bradley during march madness, then had some good workouts and was quickly snatched up as the prototypical "big man with potential."  prior to this, he was never considered a potential lottery pick. its not that i don't think POB or pruitt cannot potentially back up perk (coming off shoulder surgery - a recurring injury) and rondo, respectively, next year, i am not willing to gamble the small window of time we have with an aging big 3 on an unproven shoot-first pg and an unproven big.

and the signing of tony allen only adds to the uncertainty.  you never knew what to expect out of him when he was healthy (one moment you'd be oohiing and aahiing at him slicing through the lane for a sweet lay in, next thing you know you he's making insanely stupid mistakes) nevermind now that he's coming back from such a serious injury. again, he could potentially help fill posey's void but will he actually do it next year? furthermore, do you really trust TA with the ball in ANY deciding playoff game? i don't think anyone can possibly honestly answer this in the affirmative.

moving on to eddie house's signing, i will admit i do not necessarily support it. though i agree that unlike the aforementioned players, we at least know what to expect from eddie.  i'm not a big eddie guy but i can live with it....as long as he was not brought in to backup rajon. i don't mind him filling in from time to time but thats it. eddie's ability to bring the ball up the court especially with his dirbbling-challenged left hand is at times frightening. i do not udnerstand why no teams ever exploited this. because of this, and because i don't think its reasonable to force rondo to run the point 35-40 minutes a game for 82 games plus playoffs, i think it would be a smart move to sign another PG at the minimum.

i know this may come across as fairly negative but i think it is a realistic assessment of the off-season acquisitions. and for the record, i still think this team, as currently constructed, is one of the top teams in the east. what i'm getting at is that there is far too much uncertainty on this team as is right now. and though danny is probably not done, i do not really see any other FA's that can come in and cure this ucnertainty.

[BballTim]

  What I know it's reasonable to expect that if O'Bryant proves incapable of backing up Perk then Ainge will find someone else, which he alluded to on the radio today. But what I posted was reasonable assumptions. I "know" that Rondo will be more consistent next year the same way you "know" that Tony Allen won't be better next year than Posey was last year or that you "know" that O'Bryant won't be better next year than PJ was this year. Which parts of my post do you consider to be so unlikely?

That Ainge will find a backup center as good as PJ, for example. Do you have any idea of who's going to be? And essentialy, that you believe that a sligthly better play from BBD or Powe will be relevant. If you consider that our bench was weak last season (for the record, I don't agree), I can't see how you don't consider this bench extremely weak.

  Why wouldn't you expect better play from Powe or Davis to be relevant?

  I didn't think PJ was that good last year, so even if the replacement is a little worse it won't be much more relevant (or irrelevant) that the difference in play at pf. I also think that Rondo and Perk will play more minutes this year. So even if we get weaker play from the bench, we'll get weaker play for fewer minutes and stronger play (from the starters) for more minutes so the effect of the weaker bench will be lessened.