Posey Update

[Gainesville Celtic]

Well first of all, in most of these situations, nobody really knows what's going on.  I'm sure both Ainge and Posey's agent are trying to distort reality through the media.  For all we know, no team wants to offer Posey more than two years; but we all know that Posey's agent is going to say that and is probably leaking info to the contrary. 

That said, Danny's playing a dangerous game if he doesn't bring Posey back.  I worry that he--like some people on this board--has the mindset that he's the new Patriots/Red Sox, when nothing could be further from the truth.  Both in terms of construction and the simple nature of each sport, the Sox and Pats' "tough line" approach has little application to the C's current situation. 

1) Age.  Brady is Pierce's age in a sport where he could play longer.  Brady was in his 20s when they won their three titles.  Thus, Bellichick could always afford to take a temporary hit because he knew his window to win a title was wide open.  It's similar with the Sox.  Though Ortiz and Manny are older now, they weathered the storm in '05 and '06 and came back and won in '07.  That's not happening for the Celtics.  They can't afford to be tough about salary because they don't have a year or two to wait around to find a suitable replacement. 

2) Speaking of suitable replacements, that's also something the C's don't really have the luxury of having.  People forget, yes, the Pats cut Lawyer Milloy, but they brought in Rodney Harrison.  Yes, the Sox let Pedro go in '05 and Damon go in '06, but countered with the acquisition of guys like Beckett and Lowell.  Who are the Celtics going to replace Posey with?  Giddens?  Maybe if we're very lucky, but he's not going to get away with what Posey got away with as rookie?  A guy like Barnes?  Maybe, but he doesn't have all the intangibles Posey has. 

3) If the C's lose Posey and somehow win it all next year, good for Danny.  In Danny I will trust; however, if they come up just short, it's an enormous waste.  In life, I'm someone always looking to the future.  But what's the point of looking to the future if you're the Celtics?  The whole point of being a professional sports team is to win a championship.  The C's are doing that right now.  While I'd like to see them continue that success 5 years down the road, reality will tell us that even if Danny plays his cards right, they probably won't be winning a title then.  Remember, every era of basketball has a ton of good teams, but few of them ever win a title.  So to risk not winning a title when we're currently one of the "great" teams of an era is crazy.  Because even if Danny develops youngsters and clears cap space, it's far more likely that the next incantation of the C's is the '97 Jazz (or worse the '01 Sixers or '02 Nets) than the '97 Bulls. 

Jon, I share your fears about Ainge too closely mimicking the Sox/Pats (i'm a Sox/Chargers fan so i'm less knowledgeable about the Pats).  But there are 2 key issue's i"d take with your post: 

So to risk not winning a title when we're currently one of the "great" teams of an era is crazy.  Because even if Danny develops youngsters and clears cap space, it's far more likely that the next incantation of the C's is the '97 Jazz (or worse the '01 Sixers or '02 Nets) than the '97 Bulls. 

Uh.... we're already diff. from the 97 Jazz, 01 Sixers or 02 Nets b/c in case you missed it we won the NBA Championship!!!. Those teams did not, so really the question should be  will we be the next 06 Heat/04 Pistons (1 time winners) or the 05/07 Spurs/01-03 Lakers (multiple time winners either sep. by a year (spurs) or repeating champs (fakers).

The second point is that a single player or 2 make such a bigger difference in the NBA (with smaller rosters, etc). This obvs. cuts both ways:  A player like Posey last year can make a huge diff., while losing him this year can too.  But replacing him with a Matt Barnes might make up 80% of that loss.

Don't get me wrong, i hope we resign Posey -- like 95% of Celtics fans do -- but i'm not gonna predict a new champ next year if we lose him.  We still have a couple scrubs named Pierce, Garnett, Allen and Rondo

[timepiece33]

if they resign posey and STILL lose that close series next year does the sky fall then too? oh yeah resigning posey does not automatically mean banner 18 nor does it assume future series wins. posey can make a big shot or 2 to help but championships are ALWAYS gonna be won by your best players, not by role players.

The only argument you'll hear me make is that the team is better suited to win 18 with James Posey on it if you are going to be presenting me with the options currently involved in FA.

The question is whether a $5 to $6MM contract over the next 3 to 4 years is worth being better suited to win a championship.   

[Andy Jick]

if we lose out on james posey we CAN still win a championship next season...danny won't just sit back and play dumb.

i would be excited to see the next move, as i believe danny has contingency plans for just about anything that might happen.

i hope posey stays, but if he leaves, then so be it.  afterall, we survived the departure of gerald green when many thought the sky had fallen...

You're not comparing Gerald Green to Posey, are you?

he is but i dont think in terms of skill or impact but in terms of fan reaction.

exactly...it was a sarcastic joke to those who never thought we'd recover from the exodus of gerald.  their skill level isn't even close and it's comical to read where someone might think i was comparing that aspect of their respective game's. 

[winsomme]

if they resign posey and STILL lose that close series next year does the sky fall then too? oh yeah resigning posey does not automatically mean banner 18 nor does it assume future series wins. posey can make a big shot or 2 to help but championships are ALWAYS gonna be won by your best players, not by role players.

The only argument you'll hear me make is that the team is better suited to win 18 with James Posey on it if you are going to be presenting me with the options currently involved in FA.

The question is whether a $5 to $6MM contract over the next 3 to 4 years is worth being better suited to win a championship.   

i'm sure that for Danny the main two reasons for not giving Posey the 4 year deal is that he wants to have the salary flexibility when Pierce and Ray are up and he also would like to have at least one of Walker or Giddens in the rotation by then.

both of these make total sense. i mean, i want both of those things too. the problem is and has been that the replacements seem like they would be too much of a downgrade from what Posey gave us last season.

i really don't know how this is going to shake down. it's very tricky maneuvering here.

[Cman]

Depends what you mean by falling.  Would the C's have won #17 without Posey this year?  I'm not sure they would have.  So unless the C's can a) get a suitable replacement, b) make up for it in other areas, or c) face easier competition, I don't see how the team won't be worse next year without him.

"a" is easier said than done with the drying up free agent pool; however, given the C's status as champions, I'm holding out hope someone will want to jump on for the chance at a ring for less money. 

"b" is probably only going to happen if Rondo steps it up or a guy like Giddens matures a heck of a lot faster than we think.  Could happen, but probably not something to fall back on.

"c" probably isn't going to happen given Philly's improvement and the Cavs continuing presence.  Still, Detroit could be worse next year than they were this year depending on what Dumars does. 

But make no mistake about it, if the C's don't get Posey and fall just short next year (read: lose that very close Cleveland series), the sky will have fallen. 

If Ray Allen hadn't gone through that shooting slump, the Cleveland series would have been over sooner.  Allen shot close to 15% from 3pt land in that series.  So if we want to worry about that not happening again, one could make a reasonable argument that the Cs need more shooters.... I don't buy that argument, but it underlines the main point: the success of the team next year depends way more on the Big Three than on whether the Cs have Posey back or not.  I would love to have him back, but it won't be the end of the world if he isn't back....

[TripleOT]

Is anyone else sick and tired about going over the same ground about Posey over and over and over and over (and over)?

Posey, I beg you, just sign a [dang] contract somewhere, and soon. 

[Who]

Is anyone else sick and tired about going over the same ground about Posey over and over and over and over (and over)?

Posey, I beg you, just sign a [dang] contract somewhere, and soon. 

I'd guess the majority of people are fed up with it. I certainly am.

[rondofan1255]

Is anyone else sick and tired about going over the same ground about Posey over and over and over and over (and over)?

Posey, I beg you, just sign a [dang] contract somewhere, and soon. 

I'm sick and tired of it as well.

I wish the powerful moderators would lock all Posey threads, wait until he has agreed to sign with someone, and then unlock. Not that I'm saying they will, or should, I just would be ever so pleased for them to do so. Hehe.

[wdleehi]

Is anyone else sick and tired about going over the same ground about Posey over and over and over and over (and over)?

Posey, I beg you, just sign a [dang] contract somewhere, and soon. 

I'd guess the majority of people are fed up with it. I certainly am.

Everything has been said.  


Ainge drew a line in the sand in a different spot then most of us expected, but there is nothing really new out there.  

[Roy Hobbs]

Is anyone else sick and tired about going over the same ground about Posey over and over and over and over (and over)?

Posey, I beg you, just sign a [dang] contract somewhere, and soon. 

I'd guess the majority of people are fed up with it. I certainly am.

Agreed.  That's why Danny needs to give a firm deadline, so we can all move on from this nonsense.  If Posey isn't going to sign here, the team needs to start finding replacements.

[P2]

I'd rather have Barnes for 3 years/$12M at this point than Posey for 2 years/$12M (full MLE).

[wahz]

I have seen something like this asked 20 or more times with no response: can anyone explain why it makes sense to limit posey to 2-3 years to insure that we free up cap space 4 years from now, when 4 years from now ray, and PP's contract will have expired, not to mention scals, and KG will be 35?
isn't our window to win now and not then? what are we trying to do rebuild around Kevin when he is 35? Doesn't it matter that PP, Scal and Ray come off the books? And won't we have the mle on an ongoing basis in any year when we are over the cap, even if we use it this year on pose? I mean I get it if we are tryoing to nab Pose cheap and still have the mle right now to use on Childress, but all thsi talk about we have to have room in 4 years is crazy, isn't it?

[P2]

I have seen something like this asked 20 or more times with no response: can anyone explain why it makes sense to limit posey to 2-3 years to insure that we free up cap space 4 years from now, when 4 years from now ray, and PP's contract will have expired, not to mention scals, and KG will be 35?
isn't our window to win now and not then? what are we trying to do rebuild around Kevin when he is 35? Doesn't it matter that PP, Scal and Ray come off the books? And won't we have the mle on an ongoing basis in any year when we are over the cap, even if we use it this year on pose? I mean I get it if we are tryoing to nab Pose cheap and still have the mle right now to use on Childress, but all thsi talk about we have to have room in 4 years is crazy, isn't it?

One word: Flexibility.

[wdleehi]

I have seen something like this asked 20 or more times with no response: can anyone explain why it makes sense to limit posey to 2-3 years to insure that we free up cap space 4 years from now, when 4 years from now ray, and PP's contract will have expired, not to mention scals, and KG will be 35?
isn't our window to win now and not then? what are we trying to do rebuild around Kevin when he is 35? Doesn't it matter that PP, Scal and Ray come off the books? And won't we have the mle on an ongoing basis in any year when we are over the cap, even if we use it this year on pose? I mean I get it if we are tryoing to nab Pose cheap and still have the mle right now to use on Childress, but all thsi talk about we have to have room in 4 years is crazy, isn't it?

The 2 year contract make me think they want to be in position to make a sign and trade for Lebron or Wade.  Add the young star to KG and Pierce. 

[wahz]

Is Bartelstein LeBron's agent or Wade's? If not, who is?

never mind in edit I have it. Posey's agent isn't Lebrons or Wades. And PP and KG's agents aren't Wades or Lebrons either. And Ray Allens has no relevance either. Maybe that all doesn't matter but it doesn't appear DA has an in.