Author Topic: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide  (Read 38789 times)

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Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #105 on: July 06, 2008, 12:46:25 AM »

Offline timepiece33

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Actually, the circumstances are a bit different. It's one thing to create a new contract with your limited current resources than acquiring a contract and still have your resources available to make other moves.

Fisher was traded for. We have to sign Posey using our MLE.

The Lakers signed Fisher outright to a 3 year, MLE contract when he was 33 (2 years older than Posey).  Seems similar to me.   

The Jazz did get rid of Devin Brown's expiring contract, but they also picked up an option they had no intention of picking up in McLeod and Owens was given an above market deal in a S/T to facilitate the deal for Fisher.  Not sure how that varies all that much.   

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #106 on: July 06, 2008, 12:56:07 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Actually, the circumstances are a bit different. It's one thing to create a new contract with your limited current resources than acquiring a contract and still have your resources available to make other moves.

Fisher was traded for. We have to sign Posey using our MLE.

The Lakers signed Fisher outright to a 3 year, MLE contract when he was 33 (2 years older than Posey).  Seems similar to me.   

The Jazz did get rid of Devin Brown's expiring contract, but they also picked up an option they had no intention of picking up in McLeod and Owens was given an above market deal in a S/T to facilitate the deal for Fisher.  Not sure how that varies all that much.   

Lakers also had a desperate need for a point-guard... starting point-guard at that. Plus, it wasn't for the full MLE. They also had a more complete bench. We have holes to fill almost everywhere.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #107 on: July 06, 2008, 01:07:35 AM »

Offline timepiece33

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Lakers also had a desperate need for a point-guard... starting point-guard at that. Plus, it wasn't for the full MLE. They also had a more complete bench. We have holes to fill almost everywhere.

The Celtics have a desperate need for a 6th man.   That 3 minutes more a game that Fisher plays vs. Posey is apparently the distinction?  They'll be paying him $5+MM at the age of 34 and 35.   That was a fiscally irresponsible decision based on the boards definition of cap suicide.  The guy is going to be decrepit at 34 and 35.  I'm not critical of the decision.  Just be consistent in your evaluation.   

Utah acquired him with the thought that they'd be paying him an average of $7MM at age 34 and 35.   I guess lucked out when his kid got sick, so he had to buy out his contract even though he was an instrumental part in Deron Williams's development AND helped that team make the playoffs. 

There are instances where players are effective at age 34 and 35.  I'm with Posey at a 3 year contract.  Might even contemplate him at a 4 year deal depending on what our options are to replace him. 
« Last Edit: July 06, 2008, 01:25:02 AM by timepiece33 »

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #108 on: July 06, 2008, 01:24:35 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Lakers also had a desperate need for a point-guard... starting point-guard at that. Plus, it wasn't for the full MLE. They also had a more complete bench. We have holes to fill almost everywhere.

The Celtics have a desperate need for a 6th man.   That 3 minutes more a game that Fisher plays vs. Posey is apparently the distinction.   They'll be paying him $5+MM at the age of 34 and 35.   That was a fiscally irresponsible decision based on the boards definition of cap suicide.  The guy is going to be decrepit at 34 and 35. 

Utah acquired him with the thought that they'd be paying him an average of $7MM at age 34 and 35.   I guess lucked out when his kid got sick, so he had to buy out his contract even though he was an instrumental part in Deron Williams's development AND helped that team make the playoffs. 

Ah, we also need a 7th man... spend full MLE on him instead?

These are different sets of circumstances. You let me spend the MLE among other players, and allow me to trade for a 5 year worth of Posey, and I'd do it without thinking (depending on who we give up). But you tell me to spend the full MLE, and leave me with few resources to fill out the rest of my roster and I have to think twice, thrice, and more.

Just so you don't confuse my arguments with those of others... my problems with signing Posey have more to do with what we sign him for starting this year than the length of his contract.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #109 on: July 06, 2008, 01:27:27 AM »

Offline jay_jay54

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anyway - my point being - the deals for Garnett and Allen made this team about winning right now - not 4 years from now. so do what is necessary to win today - and that means retaining James Posey.

If you can win now *and* win in the future, that's your best option, right? 

I think that's why the Celts are targeting Maggette.  While many fans seem to think Posey is indispensable, it's significant to me that the two decision makers with the most insight on this -- Danny Ainge and Doc Rivers -- seem to be recruiting Maggette.  That suggests to me that at the very least, both Danny and Doc think it's possible to win without Posey, and it's probable that they see Maggette as an upgrade.
Whats the best case scenerio in retaining House,Posey?What would be the best financial deal we could offer both?Im down for the best deal for those 2 players,without putting the team in a longterm financial ruin.And if they do not accept,whats reasonable,then i say see ya.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2008, 01:35:39 AM by jay_jay54 »

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #110 on: July 06, 2008, 01:35:43 AM »

Offline timepiece33

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Ah, we also need a 7th man... spend full MLE on him instead?

These are different sets of circumstances. You let me spend the MLE among other players, and allow me to trade for a 5 year worth of Posey, and I'd do it without thinking (depending on who we give up). But you tell me to spend the full MLE, and leave me with few resources to fill out the rest of my roster and I have to think twice, thrice, and more.

So the 3 minutes a game makes it OK to pay $5+MM for an in excess of 33 year old player? OK.  Got it.   

You've come up with options for the MLE among other players that frankly make our team worse and have tried to rationalize how Roger Mason and Matt Barnes makes us a better team.  When you come up with one that's close, we'll talk.  So far, that one doesn't do it for people for people that actually watch this team.     

Personally, I'm OK signing Posey to a 3 year MLE contract if Maggette passes.  I might even move to a 4 year deal.  Like most of the people on the board, I draw the line at 5 years and move forward.   

Then bring in House at non bird rights and a center at the LLE.   Because we are a good team, we probably will have options with minimum contracts as well.   

I'm not sure what your fascination with keeping him below the MLE is.  I am amazed that you aren't even contemplating years here.  IMO, years are the big question.  Being able to spread the MLE among multiple players assumes that you leave more than enough space to be more than the LLE.  That isn't going happen.  It isn't realistic.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #111 on: July 06, 2008, 01:56:55 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Ah, we also need a 7th man... spend full MLE on him instead?

These are different sets of circumstances. You let me spend the MLE among other players, and allow me to trade for a 5 year worth of Posey, and I'd do it without thinking (depending on who we give up). But you tell me to spend the full MLE, and leave me with few resources to fill out the rest of my roster and I have to think twice, thrice, and more.

So the 3 minutes a game makes it OK to pay $5+MM for an in excess of 33 year old player? OK.  Got it.   

You've come up with options for the MLE among other players that frankly make our team worse and have tried to rationalize how Roger Mason and Matt Barnes makes us a better team.  When you come up with one that's close, we'll talk.  So far, that one doesn't do it for people for people that actually watch this team.     

Personally, I'm OK signing Posey to a 3 year MLE contract if Maggette passes.  I might even move to a 4 year deal.  Like most of the people on the board, I draw the line at 5 years and move forward.   

Then bring in House at non bird rights and a center at the LLE.   Because we are a good team, we probably will have options with minimum contracts as well.   

I'm not sure what your fascination with keeping him below the MLE is.  I am amazed that you aren't even contemplating years here.  IMO, years are the big question.  Being able to spread the MLE among multiple players assumes that you leave more than enough space to be more than the LLE.  That isn't going happen.  It isn't realistic.

Can we get past the specific examples, they're taken out of context and besides the point. There should be opportunities out there that Danny has to explore, if he explores them and ultimately feels that giving all away to Posey is the best way to go, I'm fine with it... I've said it numerous times. The Roger Mason idea was simply one route to go, and mainly stemming from the idea that no one wants Tony back, so I tried to accomodate that wish, and Matt Barnes gives us a better balance between youth/ability making the long contract (if that's the way it goes) more tolerable under the circumstances.

The idea of Roger Mason comes from his ability to guard both PG and SG and he'd be a good replacement to Tony in the look I want from the bench. Already mentioned it another thread. I want the capability to bring the ball under pressure, I want a highly energetic athletic small ball capable of defense unit that has Rondo and Garnett (with bench players), and a PG off the bench capable of defending bigger guards that like to post or shoot the midrange jumper over players.

You bring me back Tony and give full MLE to Posey, I'm 100% fine with it... it gives us the dynamic I explained above, you can look for whatever back-up PG is available to us. You sign Posey full MLE, and manage to bring me a Roger Mason-like PG and I'll be 100% fine with it, I just don't see it happening. We have Pruitt, and if he's the real deal, then I'm 100% fine with paying Posey... but is he? I don't want to rely on that experiment.

As I've said many times, there are many scenarios, and depending on how the scenarios unfold I'd like to switch different pieces around. It's not that I specifically want Tony. It's not that I specifically want Roger, I want a combination of players that will allow our bench to do those things above.

But I don't want argue more about that. My comments on this thread was mainly about how it's easier for a team to pay someone big money when it's not at the expense of their limited resources to make their team better currently. That's all I'm saying. It's not merely about who deserves to get paid or not.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2008, 02:05:20 AM by BudweiserCeltic »

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #112 on: July 06, 2008, 02:07:40 AM »

Offline timepiece33

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Can we get past the specific examples, they're taken out of context and besides the point. There should be opportunities out there that Danny has to explore, if he explores them and ultimately feels that giving all away to Posey is the best way to go, I'm fine with it... I've said it numerous times.

Unfortunately, there are a ton of people are speaking in generalities.  It isn't until we talk in specifics, where we can assess whether it is the right decision or not.

I'd jump up and down if we secured Corey Maggette.   I'm not as sold on the variation of options that our at there to split our MLE.  We'll see how it plays out.

As far as I'm concerned, Danny is exploring those options now.     

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #113 on: July 06, 2008, 02:21:52 AM »

Offline BudweiserCeltic

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Can we get past the specific examples, they're taken out of context and besides the point. There should be opportunities out there that Danny has to explore, if he explores them and ultimately feels that giving all away to Posey is the best way to go, I'm fine with it... I've said it numerous times.

Unfortunately, there are a ton of people are speaking in generalities.  It isn't until we talk in specifics, where we can assess whether it is the right decision or not.

I'd jump up and down if we secured Corey Maggette.   I'm not as sold on the variation of options that our at there to split our MLE.  We'll see how it plays out.

As far as I'm concerned, Danny is exploring those options now.     

Sadly, me neither... but there are options I like. As I said, I tried to be as accommodating as possible to the wishes of people of this board in regards to Tony, so went with the next best thing. But Posey's abilities are on the decline, his defense is being overstated... he was getting caught flat footed more often than usually, and it'll only get worse... he does have good defensive instincs to make up for the blunders, but as far as skills go, they're going down. It is a concern, and that's why I don't want to Danny to give Posey the full MLE blindly.

I know you don't like Matt Barnes, maybe this year specifically he won't help us as much as Posey would've, but maybe the year after that he does help us more than Posey would have... the difference is that maybe by giving Matt Barnes half or so of the MLE will allow us to lock up either a legit backup PG or a legit backup C that will help us in these two or so years.  Those are the things I want Danny weighting. It's not as simple as this guy gives us a better opportunity now than the other, there has to be a balance, and if you go weaker in one spot, you better get stronger than you would have otherwise in another. If after taking all those things into consideration, Posey and his combination is the best, go for it.

In contrast to many of this forum, I could care less about the owner's money being spent through salary and tax. I do care of using the limited resources to make our team better wisely, that's the only reason that I care more about what we pay Posey on his base year than what we actually pay him on the long run.  But again, depending on how the scenarios unfold I want to see the roster filled with different type of pieces... "if this happens then this, if that happens then that" type of thing... can't deal in absolutes.

Fingers crossed for Maggette lol. He'd be the exception to my vision of the bench (though still possible)... he's that good of a player.

Edit: [dang], don't you hate it when you have a word in your mind and your fingers type another that sounds the same/similar but it's written completely different?
« Last Edit: July 06, 2008, 02:36:22 AM by BudweiserCeltic »

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #114 on: July 06, 2008, 02:35:41 AM »

Offline timepiece33

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Personally, I believe the rumors of "his demise" are overstated and his defense is very underrated by many on this board.  The guy came in and put together a great defensive effectiveness rating and solid defensive win shares as well.  There is no sign of his demise outside of a few series where you could nit pick against the best player in the league.   

It's kind of turned into a battle of hyperbole.  One side is overrating him.  The other is underrating him.   This is a difficult decision for Danny.   I don't envy him.  We'll see how it plays out.

I don't believe Barnes helps more than Posey over the next 4 years.   


Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #116 on: July 06, 2008, 06:33:13 AM »

Offline winsomme

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Do we really come off as being almost arrogant simply because we want our team to continue to win now while not doing it at the expense of ruining tomorrow for many years to come?

Do we really come off as almost arrogant for wanting, as Roy so aptly stated, to win now while also planning to win later?

If this was a bad team everyone on this board would be doing exactly what I am trying to do, which is to build a team that can win for a long time. Older, expensive role players wanting 5 year deals wouldn't even contemplated because the idea is against the basic unwritten rule of trying to maintain growth and excellence over a period of time.

So instead the same people who would reject this signing in a heartbeat if we had not won it all last year are willing to throw away tens of millions of Wyc Groubeck's money simply because having the 7th best player on the team return next year is all that is important in winning now. Does anyone realize that a full MLE could well effect the resigning of Eddie House who I think was every bit as important to this team as James posey was.

And giving Posey that contract guarantees only that Posey returns it does not guarantee another title run. Posey was a cog in the engine that won it all. But he wasn't that big a cog that someone couldn't come in to replace him(Barnes, Pietrus, Bonzi Wells) on the cheap while also using some money to upgrade the backup center position(Kurt Thomas) so that Posey's replacement would have to try to defend the 4 like Posey did.

So as much as Posey's replacement might not be as good as Posey, the upgrade in another position can keep us overall just as likely to repeat while maintaining that almost arrogant plan of trying to be title contenders even after the Big Three start to break apart and we need to move forward without them.




i think, nick, the problem is we have seen this  "plug and play" strategy not work and really good "cores" not win as many Titles as they might have.

we don't have a very big window with GPA, so it seems to me that maximizing that window is the priority.

i don't see many people saying that we can't win without Posey, but who replaces him matters.

for instance, the difference between Bonzi and Posey is massive.

remember that DET fans thought the same thing about their role players and now they are on the verge of busting up their team...
You keep bringing up Detroit but that Detroit championship, at least IMHO, was an aberration. Non superstar teams that win using team play are a giantic NBA aberration. Detroit shouldn't have expected to win again without adding a superstar and they haven't and won't. That core wasn't that good.

The Celtics have 3 superstars. The San Anonio teams had at least 2 and during other years three superstars. The Lakers of Kobe/Shaq had superstars as well. Those Spurs and Lakers teams locked in their stars and starers long term and everyone else were short term renewable contracts. Those teams were not locking in bench players long term. This kept the team competitive enough to win now with SUPERSTARS and viable long term to do it later as they developed or brought on other star type talent.

The Pistons never had that SUPERSTAR that could be built around or who could carry a team to the championship. It's why plugging in didn't work there because their excellent coach was replaced by a moron and because they didn't have the ultimate talent in the core in the first place.

The Celtics core is as talented as any core that has been together since MJ, Pippen, Rodman. The intermingling of complimentary role players will work and keep titles coming because it is that core that wins rings not the 7th, 8th, and 9th guys off the depth chart that do. Posey was good last year but not essential otherwise last year doesn't happen good. Other could do his job.

And just because Wells isn't as good a player as Posey, that doesn't mean he couldn't give us most of what Posey gives us and then have someone else pick up the rest of the slack.

Again who replaces him matters but don't downplay what upgrading other areas on the roster can and will do to offset that loss of performance that anyone who replaces Posey has.




DET was an aberration? they have been to the ECF 6 straight years!!! and the FInals twice......call it what you want, "core" or "superstars", that team had the talent to win Titles and they have done a lot of tinkering and not won since 2004. and it's not like they beat some softy. they beat the Lakers and then went to seven with the Spurs the very next year.

and the Lakers IMO did bring back their key role players in Fox, Horry and Fisher. and they were big in all their Title wins. in fact, Horry is the PERFECT example of why we SHOULD bring back Posey.

and on the Spurs, it mattered WHO their role players were....i would actually argue that if they had brought back Stephen Jackson, they could have won MORE Titles and they also had a bigger window with their "core" of TD, TP and Ginobili (remember i am not arguing that we can't win without Posey). so they could afford to have comobs that didn't work (ie Nesterovic and Turkoglu) and just try again (ie Nazr and Brent Barry).  so again, to me, the Spurs once again show that it matters WHO the replacements are....

we have a very small window with our "core", so if we for instance sign a Pietrus for 3 years and it doesn't work, we've wasted one of these few opportunities with GPA...

the Isiah DET teams were defined as much by their RPs as their stars with Vinnie, Salley and Rodman...the Rockets with Elie, Horry and Cassell....the Bulls with Kerr, Rodman and Kukoc.

IMO there is a great tradition of RPs on Title teams.

like i have said over and over here, it is certainly possible to replace Posey, but it matters who the replacement is....and remember that our window is small, so one mistake could make it even smaller....thus, for me, why risk it when we KNOW what Posey can do...

anyway, like i have also said, i do trust Danny. and that is most important of all.
« Last Edit: July 06, 2008, 07:15:18 AM by winsomme »

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #117 on: July 06, 2008, 07:32:51 AM »

Offline winsomme

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New article on the Herald related to this topic:
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/basketball/celtics/view/2008_07_06_C_s_deal_with_Green_stuff:_Might_have_to_take_Pats__cold__hard_salary-cap_line/srvc=celt&position=1

again, this all goes back to the "window of opportunity" question.

as we can see, the Patriots don't win Super Bowls every year. and we start with Brady and Belichick and Brady won his first Super Bowl at what 24, 25??

so there was ample opportunity to bring in players that don't work out. they can just  reload the following year and go again. do we all remember WHY we brought in Randy Moss? that receiving corp in 06-07 was like the closer by committee experiment.

i don't think we have the same luxury here. i mean, how often do you get a combo like GPA?

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #118 on: July 06, 2008, 07:46:11 AM »

Offline Brickowski

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Silas is a good example of a guy who didn't wow you with statistics but made all the key plays to win games.

Silas went to Denver for a year ands then to Seattle, where the team won 47, 52 and 56 games during the time Silas was there, including a title in 1979-80.

Then, after Silas retired and Dennis Johnson was traded, the Sonics won 34 games in 1980-81, and did not become a good team again until the early 90's with Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp, Detlef Schrempf, etc.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #119 on: July 06, 2008, 10:12:32 AM »

Offline BballTim

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Silas is a good example of a guy who didn't wow you with statistics but made all the key plays to win games.

Silas went to Denver for a year ands then to Seattle, where the team won 47, 52 and 56 games during the time Silas was there, including a title in 1979-80.

Then, after Silas retired and Dennis Johnson was traded, the Sonics won 34 games in 1980-81, and did not become a good team again until the early 90's with Gary Payton, Shawn Kemp, Detlef Schrempf, etc.

  A big part of that was Gus Williams not playing in 80-81. When he came back the following year they went from 34 wins back up to 52.