Author Topic: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide  (Read 38749 times)

0 Members and 0 Guests are viewing this topic.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #45 on: July 05, 2008, 01:21:25 AM »

Offline Change

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6666
  • Tommy Points: 544
Posey or Maggette...... given the same contract, I would lean towards Maggette. Simply cause the man AVG 22 PPG.

Lets ask ourselves this, Is James Posey worth $30 million Celtics? NO

We are just too loyal. This is about what is best for the team now and in the future. and the answer is Corey Maggette. He provides leadership on the court when PP and Allen sit on the bench. Defensively he isn't as good as Posey, but lets not forget we play team defense..... besides spurs (the best defense team in the past decade) are interested in this man. I just hope Danny can persuade him and snatch him before the spurs do. So quit fussing Celtics fans Maggette is 10 times better than Posey. Posey is gonna do whats best for his future by capitalizing on the market, and the lakers gonna "show him the money". Lets move on and get Maggette before he changes his mind.

On behalf of the celtics nation James posey thank you and we wish the best.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2008, 01:28:57 AM by Change »

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #46 on: July 05, 2008, 01:26:09 AM »

Offline Steve Weinman

  • Author / Moderator
  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2766
  • Tommy Points: 33
  • My alter ego
Posey or Maggette...... given the same contract, I would lean towards Maggette. Simply cause the man AVG 22 PPG.

Lets ask ourselves this, Is James Posey worth $30 million Celtics? NO

We are just too loyal. This is about what is best for the team now and in the future. and the answer is Corey Maggette. He provides leadership on the court when PP and Allen sit on the bench. Defensively he might isn't as good as Posey, but lets not forget we play team defense..... besides spurs (the best defense team in the past decade) are interested in this man. I just hope Danny can persuade him and snatch him before the spurs do. So quit fussing Celtics fans Maggette is 10 times better than Posey. Posey is gonna do whats best for his future by capitalizing on the market, and the lakers gonna "show him the money". Lets move on and get Maggette before he changes his mind.

On behalf of the celtics nation James posey thank you and we wish the best.

So the Celtics' help concepts make great individual (and team, for what it's worth) defenders extraneous?  Doesn't hurt that the man can hit the trey with pretty good efficacy, too...

-sw


Reggies Ghost: Where artistic genius happens.  Thank you, sir.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #47 on: July 05, 2008, 01:29:48 AM »

Offline bbc3341

  • Derrick White
  • Posts: 278
  • Tommy Points: 23
In ESPN mag this week there is a Shaq quote from Stephen A. about leadership and "it" - that you know it when you see it - kind of like ****ography, I guess... anyway, I think there is also an "it" when it comes to a player's value and Posey has it. Even before the season started, the idea that he was on the C's made me feel comfortable. He inspires confidence in me. When he comes into the game, I have a sense that that position is in good shape, that he'll defend and make plays and maybe even change the game, but at the very least, he'll be a steadying influence. He reminds me a little bit of Eric WIlliams in that way, but with better - or at least a wider range on - defense and more durability. 5 years might seem like a lot, but I think you trade maybe getting less than you pay for for the final 2 years for what you will get in the 1st 3... He fits this team, he works well with RA, PP, and KG... and he's a champion.
Now, on to 18...

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #48 on: July 05, 2008, 01:35:38 AM »

Offline Steve Weinman

  • Author / Moderator
  • Jim Loscutoff
  • **
  • Posts: 2766
  • Tommy Points: 33
  • My alter ego
In ESPN mag this week there is a Shaq quote from Stephen A. about leadership and "it" - that you know it when you see it - kind of like ****ography, I guess... anyway, I think there is also an "it" when it comes to a player's value and Posey has it. Even before the season started, the idea that he was on the C's made me feel comfortable. He inspires confidence in me. When he comes into the game, I have a sense that that position is in good shape, that he'll defend and make plays and maybe even change the game, but at the very least, he'll be a steadying influence. He reminds me a little bit of Eric WIlliams in that way, but with better - or at least a wider range on - defense and more durability. 5 years might seem like a lot, but I think you trade maybe getting less than you pay for for the final 2 years for what you will get in the 1st 3... He fits this team, he works well with RA, PP, and KG... and he's a champion.

TP, bbc.  Well stated, and I always appreciate any allusion to everyone's favorite former pseudo-cop  ;)

-sw


Reggies Ghost: Where artistic genius happens.  Thank you, sir.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #49 on: July 05, 2008, 01:36:12 AM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48121
  • Tommy Points: 8800
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
Adding Posey guarantees nothing. Contending is all we can hope for and whether his team has Pietrus, Maggette or Posey or none of the above, they will contend because of the 5 guys that start not the guys that might come off the bench.

One bad midlevel exemption contract can kill a team.

Don't forget Perk and Rondo will be asking for $10 million a year contract extentions in the next two years. Don't believe me? Look at what Beno Udrih just got. Look at what Samuel Dalembert is making. Giving Posey a 5 year full MLE could kill this team when they most need money to resign these guys.

Most will say that Ray Allen will be traded in his last year and another high priced productive guy may come in. But will ownership continue to pay luxury tax penalties while extending Rondo and Perk big time while holding onto the Big Three or the Big Two and a high priced replacement? Especially if Posey is sitting on the bench collecting $7 million and $8million a year contracts while doing next to nothing for this team.

Does anyone remember just how poorly Posey played in the first three playoff series?

Vs Atlanta he averaged his season averages but got torched defensively.

Vs Cleveland he averaged 5 pts, 3.5 rebs and shot 33% from three while being so bad against LeBron that Doc made the switch to Pierce on LeBron exclusively. At one point in one game Pierce came out replaced by Posey on LeBron. LeBron had been stifled that game. Pierce was in the game in less than 90 seconds later because LeBron put up like 7 or 8 points on Posey in that time because he was by Posey on the first step every time.

Vs Detroit 5.5 pts, 2.7 rebs while shooting 31% from three.

Is everyone forgeting the shooting slump Posey was in for a good portion of the last two months of the year?

Does everyone expect these things to get better?

He had a greta Finals against possibly Boston easiest matchup of the postseason and suddenly he is indispensible?

For what we paid for James Posey, we got a bargain. We need another bargain not a contract that could turn ownership off so bad in later years that they say to not resign Perk or Rondo or to dump salary because he's not paying double on bad contracts anymore.

This is afterall the first time this ownership group allowed Danny to spend money. There's no guarantee that lasts.

Danny has his contracts set up very intelligently right now with Powe, Davis, and Pruitt epiring at the end of this year, Scal and Ray after 2010, Pierce, Rondo, and Perk after 2011 and KG after 2012. If we assume that Perk and Rondo get extended the year Scal and Ray come off the books then it would make all the sense in the world to give Posey a 3 year contract that is where his value maxes out.

And that's where Danny should take a lesson from Bill Belichick and the Patriots. That have had it right every time. The keep competitive because they cut ties loose once the player has crested in is dollar value return to the team. Posey might already have done that here. I think with a three year contract we can at least equal that return for the length of that contract. After that, this team is taking a beating contractually concerning BGJ.

Make the stand Danny. It's 3 year max or we find someone else. there is now the structure for a larger strategy to be effective and Danny needs to stick by it and not cave on Posey.

You see Steve brought up Miami and it's a good example. Yes they won and then got old fast and now looks to be bouncing back quick. The Celtics won't do that. Miami's Finals MVP star the year after they won it all was 24 years old. Our Finals MVP star will be 31 when the next season starts.

We can't count on getting old, getting exceptional lottery luck(something this team has never had and should never rely on ever having), and getting another top 20 player in the league in return when we trade an old star of ours. Miami traded one of the top 5 centers of all timein order to get Marion. An aging Pierce or Allen and probably even Garnett will never net a player of Marion's quality coming back to us in return.  

We need to be smart. The tarting five we have is the best in the league bar none. We have three hall of famers still able to dominate a game, a young bruising 23 year old 5 year veteran defensive beast of a center that is still developing and a 22 year old PG that might already be the best defensive PG in the league, is developing a solid jumper and is a tremendous facilitator and looks to be a 14-16 pt/7-9 assist/4-5 rebound/2-3 steal player for the next decade or more.

Those are the pieces that need to be kept before foolishly spending money on a bench player who's contract could, I said could, have an impact on the thought process of ownership when it comes to making future monetary decisions.

3 years for Posey yes. He demands more, say thanks, we love ya James, but we're going in a different direction because we have to do what's right by the Celtics and our long term fanbase, not by James Posey.

I know lots of rambling and long winded crap but take in the whole picture. Is Posey really that important to this team. I think the the starters are the only guys on this team who deserve a contract over 3 years, anything else leads to bad decisions which tend to beget more bad decisions and before you know it a decade is gone and you're still wondering when the next banner is coming.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #50 on: July 05, 2008, 01:38:33 AM »

Offline Change

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6666
  • Tommy Points: 544
This thread is about economic suicide, RIGHT?

To me signing  31 year old Posey to a Long term contract worth Approx 6mil per year is economic suicide.
« Last Edit: July 05, 2008, 01:46:35 AM by Change »

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #51 on: July 05, 2008, 02:06:09 AM »

Offline slamdunk

  • Jrue Holiday
  • Posts: 309
  • Tommy Points: 56
  • I'mPossible
What it comes down to is if you think Posey can be a big contributor to more titles in the next few years. If yes, it won't matter what he's paid in his age 37 year. If he can't then you let him go. But why toss away a key piece to save some cash a few years down the road?

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #52 on: July 05, 2008, 02:18:18 AM »

Offline TripleOT

  • Chat Moderator
  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1993
  • Tommy Points: 213
Adding Posey guarantees nothing. Contending is all we can hope for and whether his team has Pietrus, Maggette or Posey or none of the above, they will contend because of the 5 guys that start not the guys that might come off the bench.

One bad midlevel exemption contract can kill a team.

Don't forget Perk and Rondo will be asking for $10 million a year contract extentions in the next two years. Don't believe me? Look at what Beno Udrih just got. Look at what Samuel Dalembert is making. Giving Posey a 5 year full MLE could kill this team when they most need money to resign these guys.

Most will say that Ray Allen will be traded in his last year and another high priced productive guy may come in. But will ownership continue to pay luxury tax penalties while extending Rondo and Perk big time while holding onto the Big Three or the Big Two and a high priced replacement? Especially if Posey is sitting on the bench collecting $7 million and $8million a year contracts while doing next to nothing for this team.

Does anyone remember just how poorly Posey played in the first three playoff series?

Vs Atlanta he averaged his season averages but got torched defensively.

Vs Cleveland he averaged 5 pts, 3.5 rebs and shot 33% from three while being so bad against LeBron that Doc made the switch to Pierce on LeBron exclusively. At one point in one game Pierce came out replaced by Posey on LeBron. LeBron had been stifled that game. Pierce was in the game in less than 90 seconds later because LeBron put up like 7 or 8 points on Posey in that time because he was by Posey on the first step every time.

Vs Detroit 5.5 pts, 2.7 rebs while shooting 31% from three.

Is everyone forgeting the shooting slump Posey was in for a good portion of the last two months of the year?

Does everyone expect these things to get better?

He had a greta Finals against possibly Boston easiest matchup of the postseason and suddenly he is indispensible?

For what we paid for James Posey, we got a bargain. We need another bargain not a contract that could turn ownership off so bad in later years that they say to not resign Perk or Rondo or to dump salary because he's not paying double on bad contracts anymore.

This is afterall the first time this ownership group allowed Danny to spend money. There's no guarantee that lasts.

Danny has his contracts set up very intelligently right now with Powe, Davis, and Pruitt epiring at the end of this year, Scal and Ray after 2010, Pierce, Rondo, and Perk after 2011 and KG after 2012. If we assume that Perk and Rondo get extended the year Scal and Ray come off the books then it would make all the sense in the world to give Posey a 3 year contract that is where his value maxes out.

And that's where Danny should take a lesson from Bill Belichick and the Patriots. That have had it right every time. The keep competitive because they cut ties loose once the player has crested in is dollar value return to the team. Posey might already have done that here. I think with a three year contract we can at least equal that return for the length of that contract. After that, this team is taking a beating contractually concerning BGJ.

Make the stand Danny. It's 3 year max or we find someone else. there is now the structure for a larger strategy to be effective and Danny needs to stick by it and not cave on Posey.

You see Steve brought up Miami and it's a good example. Yes they won and then got old fast and now looks to be bouncing back quick. The Celtics won't do that. Miami's Finals MVP star the year after they won it all was 24 years old. Our Finals MVP star will be 31 when the next season starts.

We can't count on getting old, getting exceptional lottery luck(something this team has never had and should never rely on ever having), and getting another top 20 player in the league in return when we trade an old star of ours. Miami traded one of the top 5 centers of all timein order to get Marion. An aging Pierce or Allen and probably even Garnett will never net a player of Marion's quality coming back to us in return. 

We need to be smart. The tarting five we have is the best in the league bar none. We have three hall of famers still able to dominate a game, a young bruising 23 year old 5 year veteran defensive beast of a center that is still developing and a 22 year old PG that might already be the best defensive PG in the league, is developing a solid jumper and is a tremendous facilitator and looks to be a 14-16 pt/7-9 assist/4-5 rebound/2-3 steal player for the next decade or more.

Those are the pieces that need to be kept before foolishly spending money on a bench player who's contract could, I said could, have an impact on the thought process of ownership when it comes to making future monetary decisions.

3 years for Posey yes. He demands more, say thanks, we love ya James, but we're going in a different direction because we have to do what's right by the Celtics and our long term fanbase, not by James Posey.

I know lots of rambling and long winded crap but take in the whole picture. Is Posey really that important to this team. I think the the starters are the only guys on this team who deserve a contract over 3 years, anything else leads to bad decisions which tend to beget more bad decisions and before you know it a decade is gone and you're still wondering when the next banner is coming.


Posey on the books in years four and five will have very little effect on these deals.  The Cs only have Pierce's expiring $21m on the books that year, and the cap should be at around $70M by then.  Even if you give KG $10m, RA's replacement $15m, Posey, and Rondo and Perk $10m each (all four of those scenarios are on the high side), the team's salary structure will be the exact same that it is right now, with the top six plaeyrs taking up around $70m.  Maybe you should start a thread decrying the Cs tragic salary structure this summer, as management jumps into MLE waters despite the high payroll.

And even if the Cs payroll was a little stretched out in 2011-2012, it will come down to earth when Pierce's deal is off the books the next summer.   

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #53 on: July 05, 2008, 03:10:42 AM »

Offline nickagneta

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 48121
  • Tommy Points: 8800
  • President of Jaylen Brown Fan Club
2010-2011 Boston Celtics
Expected Salary Cap: $63 million given 4% yearly increases.
Expected Luxury Tax Threshold: $76.5 million given 4% yearly increase.

Kevin Garnett - $18.8 million
Paul Pierce - $21.8 million
Ray Allen or replacement (this assumes that Ray Allen is extended at approx same figure as 2009-2010 or is traded for a player or players that are within 15% of his salary and who's contract do not expire the next year. Seems logical considering who would trade expiring contracts for expiring contracts. Assuming Ray is allowed to expire is rather not logical) - $19 million
Rajon Rondo - $3 million
Kendrick Perkins - $4.5 million
James Posey(assuming he resigns full MLE through 2012) -$7.3million
J.R. Giddens - $1.3 million.

So if Ray Allen's replacement in a trade comes in the form of two players still on the books this year for $19 million(I think that is not a very bad assumption) and that we sign Posey to the full MLE 5 yr that he wants we are looking at 8 plyaers on the roster at $75.7 million or basically at the luxurythreshold still needing to fill a minimum of 4 roster spots and in all likelihood 6 or 7 more spots.

There could still be at least one more full MLE on the books, at least one more rookie, a left over of this current group of young players and maybe another vet or two. another $20 million might not be completely out of the question. That's a $95 million payroll and $20 million luxtax penalty.

And I might be on the conservative side.

2011-2012 Boston Celtics
Expected Salary Cap: $65.6 million given 4% yearly increases.
Expected Luxury Tax Threshold: $79.5 million given 4% yearly increase.

Kevin Garnett - $21.2 million
Paul Pierce (I'm assuming Pierce is the guy thet keep forever out of the Big Three and he will be extended but not at max. Let's put him at) - $15 million
Ray Allen or replacement (see 2010-2011) - $19 million maybe less if one of the players we received expires this year.
Rajon Rondo (assumes 6 yr $60 million extention starting at)- $8 million
Kendrick Perkins(assumes 6 yr $60 million extention starting at) - $8 million
James Posey(assuming he resigns full MLE through 2012) -$7.9million
J.R. Giddens (assumes picking up option for 4th year)- $1.8 million.

So again we are looking at 8 players that we are almost certain con be on the books but now for $80.9 million. If we once again assume another $20 million to round out the roster we are now looking at a slary of $100.9 million  and a luxtax payment of $21.9 million.

If Ray is traded and for comparable salary and not allowed to expire because we don't have adequate enough talent replacement on the roster to keep us competitive enough to contend, this team is in big trouble with the Posey full MLE 5 yr contract.If that contract or the year after properly addressing Ray's replacement and Ray is allowed to expire, this team is in decent shape.

But we already know that Posey can't replace Ray in couple of year when we need him replaced. Soray will be traded and his $19 million will be on the books. Compound that with the Posey mistake of a contract and that money kills the C's.

There is no guarantee that this ownership group is willing to be writing $20 million luxury tax penalty checks if this team is old and not that good 3 years hence.

I'm sorry TripleOT I think you aren't looking at the entire picture in enough depth to see just how much Posey could be costing this team if he isn't addressing future growth with the contract he would be receiving.


Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #54 on: July 05, 2008, 05:05:05 AM »

Offline timepiece33

  • Don Chaney
  • *
  • Posts: 1747
  • Tommy Points: 78
So again we are looking at 8 players that we are almost certain con be on the books but now for $80.9 million. If we once again assume another $20 million to round out the roster we are now looking at a slary of $100.9 million  and a luxtax payment of $21.9 million.

I am not checking all your numbers for the validity of them, but I do question two assumptions

1. I seriously doubt Ray Allen will be traded for a player making the same dollar figure as he makes considering escalation components of salaries.  Considering we are talking about a swap of an expiring salary, my guess is that could be talking about a 15% reduction in overall salary for that player depending on what year they are in the contract.  Let's just say that is worth $3MM

2. You do realize the final 7 guys on our roster last year made $4.2MM.  That number might jump to $6MM this year.  The $20MM you are projecting seems to be the crux of your argument because it is the overall tax payment.  Is it really based on anything? Just to look at some comparables. 

Detroit - $7.3MM
Lakers - $6.3MM
San Antonio - $6.1MM

To summarize
 
  $20MM projected cap overage (your number)
- $13MM from way overestimating the cost of the final 7 guys
- $3 MM from the Allen swap

You are talking about a $4MM cap hit.  That isn't inconsistent with what any of the guys are saying with regards to this ONE contract. 

Usually when I hear the term "economic suicide", I conjure up images of a disastrous result rather than this result.  This might be classified as a "lack of economic prudence". 

I'm not advocating the signing of Posey to a 5 year deal.  I've stated that I would offer a 3 year deal AND maybe move up to a 4 if push came to shove, but the reactions in this thread seem more like posturing to support an argument rather than anything based in reality. 

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #55 on: July 05, 2008, 05:25:14 AM »

Offline Who

  • James Naismith
  • *********************************
  • Posts: 52796
  • Tommy Points: 2568
Long term - 2010/11

I don't think the team is going to be able to swap Ray's deal for another max contract. One of the reasons that the Big Three work financially is because of Rondo's rookie deal and Perk's low second contract, it won't work when it comes time to pay those two. Either they go or Ray/new contract goes. Ray's deal will be replaced for Rondo and Perk.

That is perhaps the biggest reason for signing Maggette because he's a bargain at the MLE and can replace Ray in that starting lineup while allowing Perk and Rondo to be paid.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #56 on: July 05, 2008, 06:27:21 AM »

Offline KungPoweChicken

  • Bailey Howell
  • **
  • Posts: 2102
  • Tommy Points: 228
I'm not worried about losing James. Posey is a guy I definitely do not want to break the bank for.

I think the Celtics can contend with, Mickael Pietrus, Matt Barnes, or with Josh Childress. It is

doubtful that we will land Maggette, and I don't want to kill the teams financial decision with a

bad Posey contract. I hope Danny does not wait around for Maggette and Posey while Barnes, Pietrus, Childress all sign somewhere else.


Childress is a guy who I think would be a great fit in Boston. I also know he isnt going to be widely popular on this board. Childress is at the point in his career where he is ready to break out of his shell. He would be a steal. I have watched Childress play through out his career and he is very underrated. If you give this kid steady minutes on a championship team fans would forget Posey's name.  Josh has the potential to be an all star. But if he doesn't reach his potential he is still not much worse than Posey, if he is even worse at all.
                                                                                                                           



Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #57 on: July 05, 2008, 06:32:55 AM »

Offline winsomme

  • Paul Silas
  • ******
  • Posts: 6058
  • Tommy Points: 255
So again we are looking at 8 players that we are almost certain con be on the books but now for $80.9 million. If we once again assume another $20 million to round out the roster we are now looking at a slary of $100.9 million  and a luxtax payment of $21.9 million.

I am not checking all your numbers for the validity of them, but I do question two assumptions

1. I seriously doubt Ray Allen will be traded for a player making the same dollar figure as he makes considering escalation components of salaries.  Considering we are talking about a swap of an expiring salary, my guess is that could be talking about a 15% reduction in overall salary for that player depending on what year they are in the contract.  Let's just say that is worth $3MM

2. You do realize the final 7 guys on our roster last year made $4.2MM.  That number might jump to $6MM this year.  The $20MM you are projecting seems to be the crux of your argument because it is the overall tax payment.  Is it really based on anything? Just to look at some comparables. 

Detroit - $7.3MM
Lakers - $6.3MM
San Antonio - $6.1MM

To summarize
 
  $20MM projected cap overage (your number)
- $13MM from way overestimating the cost of the final 7 guys
- $3 MM from the Allen swap

You are talking about a $4MM cap hit.  That isn't inconsistent with what any of the guys are saying with regards to this ONE contract. 

Usually when I hear the term "economic suicide", I conjure up images of a disastrous result rather than this result.  This might be classified as a "lack of economic prudence". 

I'm not advocating the signing of Posey to a 5 year deal.  I've stated that I would offer a 3 year deal AND maybe move up to a 4 if push came to shove, but the reactions in this thread seem more like posturing to support an argument rather than anything based in reality. 


yeah, i agree timeP. i'm not sure all these assumptions are fair.

and again, i point to DET as a cautionary tale of assuming that your "core" is all that matters and that you can simply plug in cheap alternatives at the other spots and still win Titles...if they had brought back Okur, Williamson and Mike James, would they have won more Titles?

i'm not opposed to alternatives to Posey, but i'd like the reason that we didn't go for Posey to be that we signed someone that really can fill his shoes next season as opposed to worrying about what his contract would mean 5 years from now.

anyway, there are many twists and turns ahead i'm sure....
« Last Edit: July 05, 2008, 07:00:13 AM by winsomme »

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #58 on: July 05, 2008, 07:47:36 AM »

Offline Brickowski

  • Antoine Walker
  • ****
  • Posts: 4207
  • Tommy Points: 423
This thread is about economic suicide, RIGHT?

To me signing  31 year old Posey to a Long term contract worth Approx 6mil per year is economic suicide.

That's pure conjecture.  Maybe he would be worth every penny.  The real financial suicide is not going deep into the playoffs, becuase you lose out on all that revenue.  So if they win 2-3 more championships with Posey, he's a bargain.

Re: Win it all next year vs. economic suicide
« Reply #59 on: July 05, 2008, 08:27:39 AM »

Offline billysan

  • Ray Allen
  • ***
  • Posts: 3875
  • Tommy Points: 178
I think the salary amount and length of contract for James Posey and his possible replacements are certainly important, but there are other considerations as well.

1-will the player be a marketable commodity in 2-3 years if we need to make a trade?

2-will the contract be an albatross if the player has a career ending injury?

I would cite Scalabrine and Vin Baker as two recent examples. Posey is not either I agree, but could be with regard to trade value in 3 years. I think any player could be, but it is less likely with a younger player that his value plummets drastically.

We also need to consider that Posey is mostly a system defensive player and 'feeds' off of other defensive guys like Shaq and KG. The Heat were not that great just because they had Posey. Paul was the main factor at keeping Lebron at bay, while Posey was a nice stopgap to help wear him down. Without other pieces around him, Posey is just another good player and alone he is not 'the' difference maker.

I am all for keeping him, but not at any cost. Danny is right to be cautious. 8)
"First fix their hearts" -Eizo Shimabuku