Can the Lakers win a game under a total of 180 points?

[Discoflux]

Lakers beat the *purs twice under 180 pts last series. 

Yes they did. They are now 3-1 this season in those types of games. The Celtics are now 25-8 in those types of games.

They are much more experienced at playing these types of games where every possession from first to last matters.

Los Angeles is not. Kobe all by himself gives away about 8-10 possessions a game from bad shots and turnovers. The Lakers will not be able to afford that against the Celtics.

This series is going to be exponentially more difficult than the experts or most Laker fans thinks it is.

I still respect the Lakers enough to say this series is going the distance. Kobe will win two games all by himself. But he'll need to win three games all by himself to win this series and against this defense it's not happening.

Let's get it on!  Is it Thursday yet?

[nickagneta]

Lakers beat the *purs twice under 180 pts last series. 

Yes they did. They are now 3-1 this season in those types of games. The Celtics are now 25-8 in those types of games.

They are much more experienced at playing these types of games where every possession from first to last matters.

Los Angeles is not. Kobe all by himself gives away about 8-10 possessions a game from bad shots and turnovers. The Lakers will not be able to afford that against the Celtics.

This series is going to be exponentially more difficult than the experts or most Laker fans thinks it is.

I still respect the Lakers enough to say this series is going the distance. Kobe will win two games all by himself. But he'll need to win three games all by himself to win this series and against this defense it's not happening.

Let's get it on!  Is it Thursday yet?

Sorry Discoflux the snarky comment wasn't to you, I should have inserted the quote from the gentleman I was speaking to.

Some interesting points you brought up. LA is definitely a different team from the one we saw way back at the beginning of the year and last year. Absolutely. They are definitely more proficient offensively and Gasol gives them the low post points they were sorely lacking.

But Gasol also made them a worse defensive team. I really like Bynum and think he's going to be a stud both offensively and defensively some day. And I liked what he brought to the Lakers low post defensively and on the defensive boards.

I'm not the biggest Pau fan in the world. If the Celtics can make Gasol start his low post position 2-3 feet further out than he is used to he can get rattled offensively. Perk, Powe and Davis are very good at this. Expect it to affect his game.

I will stand by my opinions regarding the Spurs this year not being what they were last year though and my opinion that LA will have trouble scoring against the Celtics.

But if LA changes my mind I'll definitely be the first to say I was wrong and give you a rash of Tommy Points. Or maybe we might have to give you Magic Points.

Anyway TP4U for the civilized convo.

[lon3lytoaster]

I think it also bears mentioning that for all the darn praise the Lakers fans are giving the Spurs defense, the Celtics managed to beat them both times this season, the first time without Ray Allen and the second time without Kevin Garnett.

I've been a big Spurs fan for a long time, but they're not what they used to be.  At least not this year.   

Agree. Lakers fans saying that Kobe just crapped on Bowen is pretty stupid, that should be expected considering the only reason Bruce is still considered a good defender is because of his name, and his cheap shots. The Spurs defense just isn't that spectacular anymore. it's still good and among the league's best but it's not as sharp as it once was.

[eddietours]

ok the faker play DENVER NO GOOD AT DEFENSE ,UTAH GOOD TEAM BUT A THE LEVEL OF THE CELTICS ON DEFENSE SPURS WHERE UP 20 AND 15 IN 3 OF THE SERIES GAMES L THINK THE Cs WILL GIVE NIGHTMARE TO FAKER ALSO WE GOT THE FAKER KILLER PP

[lon3lytoaster]

ALSO WE GOT THE FAKER KILLER PP

This is true

[Discoflux]

Some interesting points you brought up. LA is definitely a different team from the one we saw way back at the beginning of the year and last year. Absolutely. They are definitely more proficient offensively and Gasol gives them the low post points they were sorely lacking.

But Gasol also made them a worse defensive team. I really like Bynum and think he's going to be a stud both offensively and defensively some day. And I liked what he brought to the Lakers low post defensively and on the defensive boards.

I'm not the biggest Pau fan in the world. If the Celtics can make Gasol start his low post position 2-3 feet further out than he is used to he can get rattled offensively. Perk, Powe and Davis are very good at this. Expect it to affect his game.

Hell yeah, some Tommy points... thanks!  You guys need the cheers icon w/ 2 happy faces toasting a couple mugs of beer.  :cheers:

Regarding Pau, he is one of the players our camp has some dissenters about, as you mention.  Gasoft sums it up.

Pau Strenghths: Length.  Great hands.  Decent post moves.  Great mobility.  Very good touch.  Shoots well.  Can dunk before the defense gets set to contest.  Good rebounder.  7'.  Very smart.  Perfect Center for the Triangle offense.  Great passer.  Good locker room guy.  Team focused.  FIBA MVP.  Great heart.  Extremely versatile for a big man. 

Pau Weaknesses:  lack of muscle.  Can get moved off the block.  Whines to the ref on every play.  His beard.

Overall I look at Pau as a huge asset on balance.  I rate him an 8.5 out of 10.  KG would be a 9.5 in my super advanced technical rating system, for comparison. 

KG should be able to exploit Gasoft.. but keep your eye on how he comes back and does damage of his own, and his overall team play effectiveness.  He is very, very good.

[eddietours]

l was thinking could rondo outrebound the faker backcourt

[PerkinsERA43]

all i know is that glen davis pushed tim duncan off of the block and shut him down in the spurs game at the garden....aaaand since Duncan >  Pau.... you see where this is going? 

[eddietours]

l don't know maybe am a homer but that game 6 with detriot could really be the turn point for the C's l wont be surprise to see the celtics go crazy hot in the finals 

[Jon]

Some interesting points you brought up. LA is definitely a different team from the one we saw way back at the beginning of the year and last year. Absolutely. They are definitely more proficient offensively and Gasol gives them the low post points they were sorely lacking.

But Gasol also made them a worse defensive team. I really like Bynum and think he's going to be a stud both offensively and defensively some day. And I liked what he brought to the Lakers low post defensively and on the defensive boards.

I'm not the biggest Pau fan in the world. If the Celtics can make Gasol start his low post position 2-3 feet further out than he is used to he can get rattled offensively. Perk, Powe and Davis are very good at this. Expect it to affect his game.

Hell yeah, some Tommy points... thanks!  You guys need the cheers icon w/ 2 happy faces toasting a couple mugs of beer.  :cheers:

Regarding Pau, he is one of the players our camp has some dissenters about, as you mention.  Gasoft sums it up.

Pau Strenghths: Length.  Great hands.  Decent post moves.  Great mobility.  Very good touch.  Shoots well.  Can dunk before the defense gets set to contest.  Good rebounder.  7'.  Very smart.  Perfect Center for the Triangle offense.  Great passer.  Good locker room guy.  Team focused.  FIBA MVP.  Great heart.  Extremely versatile for a big man. 

Pau Weaknesses:  lack of muscle.  Can get moved off the block.  Whines to the ref on every play.  His beard.

Overall I look at Pau as a huge asset on balance.  I rate him an 8.5 out of 10.  KG would be a 9.5 in my super advanced technical rating system, for comparison. 

KG should be able to exploit Gasoft.. but keep your eye on how he comes back and does damage of his own, and his overall team play effectiveness.  He is very, very good.

Given that you don't mention defense at all in his assessment, I'm guessing we can add that to his list of weaknesses too. 

[ERod86]

l don't know maybe am a homer but that game 6 with detriot could really be the turn point for the C's l wont be surprise to see the celtics go crazy hot in the finals 

I'm a Laker fan, and I think so too. The Cs were tight and having to find their confidence until the Piston series. I think this is going to be a much tougher series than many out there do.

As for the D: the Celtics were the best defensive team this year, but no need to put down 3 top 10 defensive teams to prove that. The Spurs are a great defensive team, the Jazz are very good, and even the Lakers were #6 this year. The Cs are the best...leave it at that. Also, the fakers thing is silly...the Lakers have been in 29 finals, and been in 7 (before this yr) since the last time the Cs were there, so I don't think they are faking.

[oneofthesedays]

The regular season does not matter for the Spurs.  Like the 3-peat Lakers, they are perfectly capable of turning it on during the playoffs when it matters.  Case in point, PHX whooped them during their last regular season meeting.  We all know how that series played out.  Regardless of how far they have slipped, the Spurs are still one of the league's best defensive teams.  To insinuate that DET or CLE are miles ahead of them defensively is an insult to basketball.  It's that kind of claim that makes me wonder if you guys have been watching the NBA during the last two decades while BOS has utterly sucked.  To claim that Bruce Bowen is not really a good defender is yet again an ignorant statement.  I think Kobe shot < 10 F/T's the entire series, that is an absolutely amazing defensive job by Bowen.

In the playoffs, execution and mental toughness matter FAR more than individual talent.  The Spurs have never been the most talented bunch, but they are without question one of the best coached and that is why they are so consistently good.  The bottom line is the Lakers have faced two very well coached squads in UTAH and SAS that execute their offense at a very high level.  While it's true the Lakers have yet to face a team as good as BOS is defensively, they have certainly seen far better offenses IMHO.  The Celtic's offense is just laughable at times, and the playoffs have exposed Doc Rivers as the playoff newb that he is.    

[Discoflux]

l don't know maybe am a homer but that game 6 with detriot could really be the turn point for the C's l wont be surprise to see the celtics go crazy hot in the finals 

I'm a Laker fan, and I think so too. The Cs were tight and having to find their confidence until the Piston series. I think this is going to be a much tougher series than many out there do.

As for the D: the Celtics were the best defensive team this year, but no need to put down 3 top 10 defensive teams to prove that. The Spurs are a great defensive team, the Jazz are very good, and even the Lakers were #6 this year. The Cs are the best...leave it at that. Also, the fakers thing is silly...the Lakers have been in 29 finals, and been in 7 (before this yr) since the last time the Cs were there, so I don't think they are faking.

I say the Celtics are the only team allowed to call us the Fakers because they are the only ones who have earned the right to.  By beating us for a respectable stretch of time. 

It drives me crazy when weak-a&& Jazz fans (and such) try to call us Fakers when they have 0 rings. 

[nickagneta]

The regular season does not matter for the Spurs.  Like the 3-peat Lakers, they are perfectly capable of turning it on during the playoffs when it matters.  Case in point, PHX whooped them during their last regular season meeting.  We all know how that series played out.  Regardless of how far they have slipped, the Spurs are still one of the league's best defensive teams.  To insinuate that DET or CLE are miles ahead of them defensively is an insult to basketball.  It's that kind of claim that makes me wonder if you guys have been watching the NBA during the last two decades while BOS has utterly sucked.  To claim that Bruce Bowen is not really a good defender is yet again an ignorant statement.  I think Kobe shot < 10 F/T's the entire series, that is an absolutely amazing defensive job by Bowen.

In the playoffs, execution and mental toughness matter FAR more than individual talent.  The Spurs have never been the most talented bunch, but they are without question one of the best coached and that is why they are so consistently good.  The bottom line is the Lakers have faced two very well coached squads in UTAH and SAS that execute their offense at a very high level.  While it's true the Lakers have yet to face a team as good as BOS is defensively, they have certainly seen far better offenses IMHO.  The Celtic's offense is just laughable at times, and the playoffs have exposed Doc Rivers as the playoff newb that he is.    

The Cavs and Pistons are miles ahead of SA defensively NOW. Not during the regular season. Not last year. Not in the Duncan era. NOW.

If SA played defense like they did last year the Lakers would have lost that series.

As for Bowen, he has slipped. He's still a good defender but he no longer guards one on one to the extent that his reputation says he does.

And I don't get where holding Kobe to 30 PPG and 50% shooting while not fouling him much is doing such a fine job defensively. If Kobe got his 30 but had to put up 10-14 FTs a game to do it while shooting 40% or lower then I would say he did a good job defending Kobe. But not sending Kobe to the line to earn his points after clobbering him a few times and still giving up 30 while letting Kobe go off at 50% tells me Bowen wasn't playing his usually aggressive clutch, grab and hack defense.

Sorry, Bowen is still really good but he's not what he once was. Stuff like that happens to 37 year old men who play basketball. That's just a way of life.



Also the stats that LA is the 6th best defensive team is just wrong. They are 6th in opponent's FG% against but they are

19th in PPG allowed
16th in 3PTFG% allowed
14th in APG allowed
and
8th in Reb Diff per game

That doesn't add up to the 6th best defense. Sort through these stats.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/sortable1.html?cnf=1&prd=1#top

San Antonio's regular season stats defensively were impressive but their numbers fell off from what they did in the regular season.

Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta and even LA and a couple of other teams had/have better postseason defensive stats than they did in the regular season. San Antonio's got worse and that is why they lost to the Lakers.

[LoyalLaker]

Also the stats that LA is the 6th best defensive team is just wrong. They are 6th in opponent's FG% against but they are

19th in PPG allowed
16th in 3PTFG% allowed
14th in APG allowed
and
8th in Reb Diff per game

That doesn't add up to the 6th best defense. Sort through these stats.

http://www.nba.com/statistics/sortable_team_statistics/sortable1.html?cnf=1&prd=1#top

San Antonio's regular season stats defensively were impressive but their numbers fell off from what they did in the regular season.

Boston, Cleveland, Detroit, Atlanta and even LA and a couple of other teams had/have better postseason defensive stats than they did in the regular season. San Antonio's got worse and that is why they lost to the Lakers.

You are looking at the wrong stats - points per game doesn't take into account pace.  You need to look at points per possession.

The EC teams play "walk-it-up-grab-and-hold" so there are less possessions and hence less scoring - that's NOT the same as good defense.

http://dberri.wordpress.com/2008/06/02/the-nba-finals-efficiency-differential-story/

Here's an objective measure.

For the Playoffs, the Lakers had a better offense/defense efficiency rating, which is to be expected given our higher win% in the post season.

Trying to forecast results using numbers will be difficult, if only because of the caliber of the opposition faced.  The Lakers certainly had tougher draws in the 1st two rounds and SA/DET is probably a wash.

To me, it will come down to mental toughness.  Boston's Big Three all have "intestinal fortitude issues" that have dogged their careers.  They barely survived two vastly inferior teams and the ECF looked more like Flip Saunders' annual meltdown than the C's turning a corner.

Yes, the Lakers' bigs are soft - but they are also skilled and Gasol MUST be doubled - even by KG.  Celtics may hold the Lakers under 90 by slowing the tempo, but if they do that they will have a hard time getting to 80 themselves.

Lakers in 5.