Celtics free agents

[Roy Hobbs]

OK, in order, here is what I think will happen:

1. Posey will opt out (pretty much a no brainer), but the C's will sign him to a 3 year, $15 million deal (he will have some offers of 4 years, but at less money per).

2. Tony Allen will sign the one year tender.  Teams very rarely sign restricted FA's to offer sheets...especially not ones like Allen.  No team wants to tie up part of their MLE on him at a crucial time in the FA period, when there is a chance the C's will match.  The only way he will be gone is if the C's can use him as a salary in a trade. 

Of course this could be effected by the draft as well.  If a wing like Brandon Rush or Chris Douglas-Roberts falls to them, it makes Allen very expendable, and they may try to package him to bring in a backup PG or big.

3. Eddie House will be gone, unless he comes back for the vet minimum.  They are not comfortable with him as the backup PG, and they have a cheaper (and already signed) option waiting in the wings as the 4th/5th guard in Pruitt.  It is tough to give up the veteran presence, but if they are giving Posey a raise, it would be tough to swallow giving a raise also to House (which is what he would probably want), when they really only want him to be a 10 minute per game player.

4. All three of these guys are probably gone.  I think they will look for an upgrade at the backup PG (or more importantly, someone they can count on not breaking down).  They may bring back PJ, but for some reason, I anticipate him retiring (especially if they win the title).

I expect the majority of the MLE to go to signing a replacement to Cassell or PJ (or maybe split between the two).  The top targets will probably be Kurt Thomas, as well as Chris Duhon, Anthony Johnson, and Anthony Carter.

If Posey opts out and the Celtics resign him, we'd have to do so with the MLE, which means bringing in no other high-priced free agent.

It's not going to shock me if Danny and Posey agree to some under-the-table *wink* *wink* deal where he doesn't opt out in return for a contract down the line.  Highly illegal, but it happens.

[Chris]

OK, in order, here is what I think will happen:

1. Posey will opt out (pretty much a no brainer), but the C's will sign him to a 3 year, $15 million deal (he will have some offers of 4 years, but at less money per).

2. Tony Allen will sign the one year tender.  Teams very rarely sign restricted FA's to offer sheets...especially not ones like Allen.  No team wants to tie up part of their MLE on him at a crucial time in the FA period, when there is a chance the C's will match.  The only way he will be gone is if the C's can use him as a salary in a trade. 

Of course this could be effected by the draft as well.  If a wing like Brandon Rush or Chris Douglas-Roberts falls to them, it makes Allen very expendable, and they may try to package him to bring in a backup PG or big.

3. Eddie House will be gone, unless he comes back for the vet minimum.  They are not comfortable with him as the backup PG, and they have a cheaper (and already signed) option waiting in the wings as the 4th/5th guard in Pruitt.  It is tough to give up the veteran presence, but if they are giving Posey a raise, it would be tough to swallow giving a raise also to House (which is what he would probably want), when they really only want him to be a 10 minute per game player.

4. All three of these guys are probably gone.  I think they will look for an upgrade at the backup PG (or more importantly, someone they can count on not breaking down).  They may bring back PJ, but for some reason, I anticipate him retiring (especially if they win the title).

I expect the majority of the MLE to go to signing a replacement to Cassell or PJ (or maybe split between the two).  The top targets will probably be Kurt Thomas, as well as Chris Duhon, Anthony Johnson, and Anthony Carter.

If Posey opts out and the Celtics resign him, we'd have to do so with the MLE, which means bringing in no other high-priced free agent.

It's not going to shock me if Danny and Posey agree to some under-the-table *wink* *wink* deal where he doesn't opt out in return for a contract down the line.  Highly illegal, but it happens.

I believe we can also extend him using the Non-Bird exception, for as much as 120% of his previous salary.  We wouldn't be able to match full MLE offers, but we can make that up by giving him extra years.

[billysan]

I also think Posey and House are our most important re-signees. Pollard is gone as should be Cassell and likely PJ. I would keep PJ if he wanted to stay but the price would need to be right.

Scalabrine and Tony Allen will be offered as trade bait along with Powe, Davis or Pruitt in the right deal IMO. none of those are untouchable and shouldnt be considered as such. Not likely any are in demand or fetch much return except TA so we are likely keeping them.

I think if a player like a Cory Maggette comes available for the full midlevel we have to take a close look as well. I wouldnt rule out the possibility of signing another wing if it is what Danny considers "the right guy". That said, a legit 7 ft big is our most pressing depth need. No more undersized role players please.

I look for us to wait until after the draft before making any significant moves. If a decent player drops or we get the right offer for our pick then our needs could drastically change. There will be plenty of 'veterans' willing to play for a discount, it's just a matter of grabbing right one(s).

[BudweiserCeltic]

OK, in order, here is what I think will happen:

1. Posey will opt out (pretty much a no brainer), but the C's will sign him to a 3 year, $15 million deal (he will have some offers of 4 years, but at less money per).

2. Tony Allen will sign the one year tender.  Teams very rarely sign restricted FA's to offer sheets...especially not ones like Allen.  No team wants to tie up part of their MLE on him at a crucial time in the FA period, when there is a chance the C's will match.  The only way he will be gone is if the C's can use him as a salary in a trade. 

Of course this could be effected by the draft as well.  If a wing like Brandon Rush or Chris Douglas-Roberts falls to them, it makes Allen very expendable, and they may try to package him to bring in a backup PG or big.

3. Eddie House will be gone, unless he comes back for the vet minimum.  They are not comfortable with him as the backup PG, and they have a cheaper (and already signed) option waiting in the wings as the 4th/5th guard in Pruitt.  It is tough to give up the veteran presence, but if they are giving Posey a raise, it would be tough to swallow giving a raise also to House (which is what he would probably want), when they really only want him to be a 10 minute per game player.

4. All three of these guys are probably gone.  I think they will look for an upgrade at the backup PG (or more importantly, someone they can count on not breaking down).  They may bring back PJ, but for some reason, I anticipate him retiring (especially if they win the title).

I expect the majority of the MLE to go to signing a replacement to Cassell or PJ (or maybe split between the two).  The top targets will probably be Kurt Thomas, as well as Chris Duhon, Anthony Johnson, and Anthony Carter.

If Posey opts out and the Celtics resign him, we'd have to do so with the MLE, which means bringing in no other high-priced free agent.

It's not going to shock me if Danny and Posey agree to some under-the-table *wink* *wink* deal where he doesn't opt out in return for a contract down the line.  Highly illegal, but it happens.

I believe we can also extend him using the Non-Bird exception, for as much as 120% of his previous salary.  We wouldn't be able to match full MLE offers, but we can make that up by giving him extra years.

Even though it seems like we could, if Posey opts out it's to look for more than this type of increase in my opinion.

[billysan]

I get the 'sense' that Posey and Eddie will stay if they feel they are being treated fairly. I dont think money will drive them away as much as a lack PT or role.

That means you better play Eddie, Doc. He has proven he is the better PG option since the Cassell acquistion. No one can deny that Sam has hit a game winner and a few big baskets, but he needs to do so within the parameters of our attacking offense. That is IMO, the rub. Our way or the highway, buddy.