Powe vs. Glenn Davis

[LB3533]

...no...the team has only 2 low-post big men - KG rarely goes inside anymore and will do so less and less as the years progress because its a wear-and-tear type of offense.

I disagree with the philosophy that KG isn't a post up player, he may not score in the low post, but he scores from the post. And it doesn't matter if he posts up from 10 feet or 5 feet, if he is scoring and converting at a high rate, it's still a score from the post.

Sure, Powe and Perk may get deeper into the paint and may shoot their shots from 2 feet as opposed to KG's 10 or 15 feet, but KG can convert at a high rate from his range....Powe and Perk NEED to get close to score.

BBD isn't fast, but he is quick and he has the brain type to be in the same mold as Larry Bird, Paul Pierce and Ray Allen...all 3 of whom aren't as athletic as other current NBA studs.

But if your mind is quick and BBD has a quick mind, with additional experience he can score in the post or get to the cup with as much regularity as Powe.

There is also not doubt in my mind that Powe can have a valuable jump shot in his own arsenal one day.

Both Perkins and Powe draw double teams btw - which is what makes them valuable - when both are left in strict one-on-one both convert at a very high efficiency.

In theory, both Powe nad Perk can draw double teams. I have yet seen that happen however. What I do see is Perk converting a lot hook shots and recently converting a lot of fall-away turn arounds, a la KG or more similarly a la Kevin McHale.

Even if either are doubled, I am not confident in either to make the pass out...Perk I have more confidence...Powe...is still a black hole.

Also, when we are a full squad at full health, no team will double Perk or Powe...heck they rarely double KG and KG gets the ball in the post more frequently.

This just says that our team is pretty [dang] dangerous when we are full healthy...that opposing teams would allow KG, Perk, and Powe to go 1 on 1 each opportunity that may arise.

The logic behind this post is sound, but the reasoning is fantasy - you can like Davis all you want, but post play is perhaps the rarest and most valuable commodity in the NBA.

I agree, post play in it's purest form is indeed the rarest commodity in the NBA.

The most valuable commodity in the NBA, however are: Kobe, Lebron, Wade, Paul Pierce, CP3, Deron Williams, Rajon Rondo etc. (Al Jefferson, Yao Ming, Kendrick Perkins, Leon Powe = not as valuable).

Heck, Mark Cuban felt Dirk was more valuable than Shaq...but ya, that was Mark Cuban....

[Atzar]

With all due respect, I think you may need to due a little more research into how the game is played...no team game plans away from playing in the post - its a fundamental necessity.

This post runs counter to every professional coaching and team management philosophy in existence...teams don't run post plays when they don't have post players - every team is looking for them.

With all due respect, because the rarity of post players in the NBA, no NBA team in today's NBA gameplans their defense to stop post players.

What do most good defensive teams gameplan to do?

Stop the drive. Pack the paint. Do their best to stop penetration from the elite PG's and penetration from slashing wings.

Today's NBA is dominated by dynamic wings and dynamic point guards.

There are probably two Centers left in the NBA who play like real Centers: Yao and Al Jefferson.

The rest of the post players in the NBA are freaking wing players who post up other wing players.

NBA teams are not searching for post scoring from Center/PF anymore they are searching it from the wing spot or they are looking for a super stud point guard.

Why? Because today's NBA caters to the smaller type players, the quicker, the faster, the more flashy and dynamic.

The old, "pure" NBA era is gone. Days of McHale, Hakeem Olajuwon are over.

Post scoring centers of the future are going to be in the mold of Shaq and Dwight Howard: sheer physical ability and not so much skill.

You have heard of the Power Forward position, right?  Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Elton Brand, Dirk Nowitzki, etc would all like to remind you of their existence at this time.  

I agree that centers are primarily defensive players more often than not now, but saying that the post is so rare now isn't true at all.

[TheReaLPuba]

Post scoring is nice but it's not essential.

Scoring in the paint is definitely essential. It doesn't matter how you do it but you need to get into the paint and score/draw fouls.

[MattD]

I think it would be BBD as well.  I feel that way even more so after Davis' poor shooting night.  Why?  Because when his offense is off or when the matchup is so that he doesn't get a lot of rebounds, he can do so many other things to help the team win.  When Powe has trouble with matchups and he has trouble scoring and sometimes rebounding, he's pretty much useless because he gives you nothing else.

I think this last point has been somewhat true in the past, but as Powe's defense has improved, it has become less so.  Ignoring the offensive numbers he put up, in three consecutive recent games Powe far outplayed Perk defensively guarding Dwight Howard, Jermaine O'Neal, and Marc Gasol.  Powe just shut each of these guys down.  And that's pretty valuable; never mind the offensive fouls Powe draws, the boxing out he does, and the physical punishment he inflicts on the player he's up against.

Baby can do a lot of the "intangibles," too -- this isn't a slam on him, just a bit of a defense of the upward trend in Leon's all-around play that's taken place over the course of his Celtic career.  Both of these guys are still learning and their games are still evolving.  What that means is that, while analysis of performance from the past few years is all that we have, it can be a little deceptive to focus on it as though it were a static example.

As I think others have said -- both of these guys are fairly unique in their play and skill sets.  Depending on other factors, I'd love to keep them both as Celtics.  If that doesn't happen, I imagine factors outside of either of their play -- money, health, who we might be able to get in some sort of deal for them -- will have just as much impact as to which (if either) of them that we keep.

Agree with the rest of your post -- love Leon for his work if nothing else, and hopefully he's able to return, healthy, sooner rather than later.

[LB3533]

You have heard of the Power Forward position, right?  Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Elton Brand, Dirk Nowitzki, etc would all like to remind you of their existence at this time.  

I have heard of those guys, but all of the guys you mention can hit jumpers and take jumpers.

Boozer = 51% jumpers / 42% close
Amare = 55% jumpers / 27% close
Pau Gasol = 41% jumpers / 41% close
Brand  = 71% jumpers / 24% close
Nowitzski = 85% jumpers / 13% close
Duncan = 58% jumpers / 37% close
Al Jefferson = 51% jumpers / 41% close

Powe = 22% jumpers / 59% close
Yao = 38% jumpers / 50% close

I agree that centers are primarily defensive players more often than not now, but saying that the post is so rare now isn't true at all.

The post IS rare, because even the guys you think are playing in the post and scoring from the post aren't doing it as much as you think they are.

I mean when Lebron is taking more shots on the inside than Duncan is and when both Brand and Amare are taking more shots as jumpers than Lebron or Wade are...well that just says a lot about the state of today's NBA.

[Chris]

As much as I love Baby, I have got to go with the Powe Show here.

Effective low-post scorers are much harder to come by than bigs who can shoot the midrange J. 

How many other teams have a guy coming off the bench with ability to take over the paint to the tune of 20 or 30 on any given night?  I'll never forget his Finals Game 2 explosion.  He single handedly won us that game with his energy off the bench.

IMHO, Leon is the toughest player in the league and embodies the Celtic tradition through his tenacity and work ethic.  I would like to see him stay in green for the duration of his career.  Unfortunetly, of the two Powe seems more likely to get the big pay day which = less likely to be back next year..

I think you are overstating your case a bit here.  While Powe has developed some nice post skills, you make it sound like he is an elite low-post scorer. 

Right now, he is one of the best "garbage-men" in the league, and he supplements that with some developing low post moves that he can use to take advantage of single coverage.  He is not yet good enough to deal consistently with double teams, and  does not have the repertoire of post moves to be able to consistently beat good post defenders, like elite post scorers can.

Right now, I would say Powe still has a ways to go to even be on the level of guys like Corliss Williamson as a low post scorer...although he is already a much better rebounder, and garbageman.

[expobear]

As much as I love Baby, I have got to go with the Powe Show here.

Effective low-post scorers are much harder to come by than bigs who can shoot the midrange J. 

How many other teams have a guy coming off the bench with ability to take over the paint to the tune of 20 or 30 on any given night?  I'll never forget his Finals Game 2 explosion.  He single handedly won us that game with his energy off the bench.

IMHO, Leon is the toughest player in the league and embodies the Celtic tradition through his tenacity and work ethic.  I would like to see him stay in green for the duration of his career.  Unfortunetly, of the two Powe seems more likely to get the big pay day which = less likely to be back next year..

I think you are overstating your case a bit here.  While Powe has developed some nice post skills, you make it sound like he is an elite low-post scorer. 

Right now, he is one of the best "garbage-men" in the league, and he supplements that with some developing low post moves that he can use to take advantage of single coverage.  He is not yet good enough to deal consistently with double teams, and  does not have the repertoire of post moves to be able to consistently beat good post defenders, like elite post scorers can.

Right now, I would say Powe still has a ways to go to even be on the level of guys like Corliss Williamson as a low post scorer...although he is already a much better rebounder, and garbageman.

Powe was really taking out the garbage before he got hurt. I've always said all Powe needs is playing time and he can take out the garbage with the best of them.

Even you had to be impressed with what Powe did when he got a chance to start.

[Atzar]

You have heard of the Power Forward position, right?  Carlos Boozer, Amare Stoudemire, Pau Gasol, Elton Brand, Dirk Nowitzki, etc would all like to remind you of their existence at this time.  

I have heard of those guys, but all of the guys you mention can hit jumpers and take jumpers.

Boozer = 51% jumpers / 42% close
Amare = 55% jumpers / 27% close
Pau Gasol = 41% jumpers / 41% close
Brand  = 71% jumpers / 24% close
Nowitzski = 85% jumpers / 13% close
Duncan = 58% jumpers / 37% close
Al Jefferson = 51% jumpers / 41% close

Powe = 22% jumpers / 59% close
Yao = 38% jumpers / 50% close

I agree that centers are primarily defensive players more often than not now, but saying that the post is so rare now isn't true at all.

The post IS rare, because even the guys you think are playing in the post and scoring from the post aren't doing it as much as you think they are.

I mean when Lebron is taking more shots on the inside than Duncan is and when both Brand and Amare are taking more shots as jumpers than Lebron or Wade are...well that just says a lot about the state of today's NBA.

Not all post play end in shots that are termed 'close'.  Many post players operate out of the high post, which results in less layups and more jumpers.  KG's favorite post move is a fadeaway jumper, but that doesn't mean it's not a post move.  Also, Dirk wasn't a very good example on my part - while he's certainly capable at scoring out of the post, that's not his first option.

[EJPLAYA]

As much as I love Baby, I have got to go with the Powe Show here.

Effective low-post scorers are much harder to come by than bigs who can shoot the midrange J. 

How many other teams have a guy coming off the bench with ability to take over the paint to the tune of 20 or 30 on any given night?  I'll never forget his Finals Game 2 explosion.  He single handedly won us that game with his energy off the bench.

IMHO, Leon is the toughest player in the league and embodies the Celtic tradition through his tenacity and work ethic.  I would like to see him stay in green for the duration of his career.  Unfortunetly, of the two Powe seems more likely to get the big pay day which = less likely to be back next year..

Noble point, but I have to disagree. Think of Powe's big games and who they played against. Game 2 of the Finals against a Bynum-less Lakers. 20 points against a Ben Wallace-less/Slow Ilgauskas led Cavs. 23 Against Haslem on the heat and 30 against Darrel Arthur? Powe shows tremendous hustle (as does Big Baby) and is great at getting down and dirty for the offensive rebounds and tip ins.

The difference is that Powe relies on circumstances, such as loose rebounds and sloppy defense, while Baby is someone who you can run your offense through. He has a great midrange shot that stretches the defense, that goes along with an immovable body in the paint(3rd heaviest player in the league behind Shaq and Yao)..and his passing is his best asset! How many times has Powe made a sweet dump off to Perk or KG?

Powe is a perfect niche kind of player who can frustrate and outwork other bigs; however, I see that Baby has the potential to be a mainstay on the court.

Powe has the better resume at this point but I just think that Baby's IQ and uniqueness (sheer strength and gentle touch) gives him the higher ceiling.

Uhhhh?!?!? Great?!You have got to be kidding. At best it is average, but looking at the body of his work since he has been here it is closer to below average. One month of hitting that shot at about 45-50% out of two years and he is now a GREAT midrange shooter?! If you want to be taken seriously you have got to stop exaggerating so wildy. Ray Allen, Richard Hamilton, Eddie House, Allan Houston, Steve Smith, Reggie Miller... THOSE are great shooters. BBD can't carry their jocks.

Is that you John Hamilton?! (BBD's agent)Come on now. Stop trying to pump your client up to get paid over Powe. It isn't working...

Great for a low post player ie a PF/C, which stretches the defense because it brings other bigs out to defend the shot...Which gives KG/Perk/Powe 1v1 down low. Oh and he has  been hitting them with a good consistency in the second half of the season. Lets see Powe do anything beyond 3 feet from the basket.

When did I say he was one of the greatest shooters of his generation? I didn't mean to infuriate you as evident by the caps and exclamation points. More of a from my perspective post.

You didn't infuriate me. Those caps and exclamations were in a baffled tone, not an angry one. Sorry for any confusion there.

You said however he was a great midrange shooter. You didn't qualify it with a position, or a certain group of people. That opens it up to anyone at anytime. Even if I give you this qualification, he still isn't a great shooter from midrange. He is below average plain and simple. He is at best a streak shooter. Considering he has only hit this shot with even a mediocre degree of effectiveness for a month or so out of his career you are definitely putting the great label on him very early! It is just like the word awesome. Way overused. KG is a GOOD outside shooter and much better than BBD, but he isn't a great one either...

[ben]

As much as I love Baby, I have got to go with the Powe Show here.

Effective low-post scorers are much harder to come by than bigs who can shoot the midrange J. 

How many other teams have a guy coming off the bench with ability to take over the paint to the tune of 20 or 30 on any given night?  I'll never forget his Finals Game 2 explosion.  He single handedly won us that game with his energy off the bench.

IMHO, Leon is the toughest player in the league and embodies the Celtic tradition through his tenacity and work ethic.  I would like to see him stay in green for the duration of his career.  Unfortunetly, of the two Powe seems more likely to get the big pay day which = less likely to be back next year..

I think you are overstating your case a bit here.  While Powe has developed some nice post skills, you make it sound like he is an elite low-post scorer. 

Right now, he is one of the best "garbage-men" in the league, and he supplements that with some developing low post moves that he can use to take advantage of single coverage.  He is not yet good enough to deal consistently with double teams, and  does not have the repertoire of post moves to be able to consistently beat good post defenders, like elite post scorers can.

Right now, I would say Powe still has a ways to go to even be on the level of guys like Corliss Williamson as a low post scorer...although he is already a much better rebounder, and garbageman.

Powe was really taking out the garbage before he got hurt. I've always said all Powe needs is playing time and he can take out the garbage with the best of them.

Even you had to be impressed with what Powe did when he got a chance to start.

     I feel Powe is an amazing low post talent.  If he is in single coverage, he will destroy the opposition, either scoring or getting his defender in foul trouble.  So teams start to double powe these days.  He does a fine job passing out or even sometimes attacking these double teams, but we need to give him more playing time to take advantage of the attention he draws.  I almost feel like we are treating him as a secret weapon, and that we hide him once teams double him.  We should let him loose for 25 min.  per game and really learn to take advantage of the attention he draws.  He fits with our team so well because not only will he score, he will get the other team in foul trouble AND slow the game down so that our starters can get more rest and be ready for increased minutes!   Big baby does not get opposing teams in foul trouble and does not score well all the time. (1 for 11 last game)  Hopefully both are healthy for play offs though, and it is so fun to watch us unleash Powe on defences that aren't prepared  ( Lakers last year in the Finals  )  Powe is our secret weapon. But he is ready to be the first big off the bench.    

[Chris]

As much as I love Baby, I have got to go with the Powe Show here.

Effective low-post scorers are much harder to come by than bigs who can shoot the midrange J. 

How many other teams have a guy coming off the bench with ability to take over the paint to the tune of 20 or 30 on any given night?  I'll never forget his Finals Game 2 explosion.  He single handedly won us that game with his energy off the bench.

IMHO, Leon is the toughest player in the league and embodies the Celtic tradition through his tenacity and work ethic.  I would like to see him stay in green for the duration of his career.  Unfortunetly, of the two Powe seems more likely to get the big pay day which = less likely to be back next year..

I think you are overstating your case a bit here.  While Powe has developed some nice post skills, you make it sound like he is an elite low-post scorer. 

Right now, he is one of the best "garbage-men" in the league, and he supplements that with some developing low post moves that he can use to take advantage of single coverage.  He is not yet good enough to deal consistently with double teams, and  does not have the repertoire of post moves to be able to consistently beat good post defenders, like elite post scorers can.

Right now, I would say Powe still has a ways to go to even be on the level of guys like Corliss Williamson as a low post scorer...although he is already a much better rebounder, and garbageman.

Powe was really taking out the garbage before he got hurt. I've always said all Powe needs is playing time and he can take out the garbage with the best of them.

Even you had to be impressed with what Powe did when he got a chance to start.

Like I said, he is one of the best garbage-men in the league.

OK, let me put it this way, Leon Powe is basically a shorter, slightly less athletic version of Dwight Howard on offense.  No one would mistake him for Tim Duncan, or even Al Jefferson with his low post moves and touch, but he is effective when facing single coverage.  But when he grabs a rebound, or is given a pass within about 6 feet facing the hoop, he is very tough to stop from scoring.

[LB3533]

I clearly remember prior to Big Baby getting hurt that Powe was struggling scoring in the post. (He was to busy trying to draw or look for fouls and ended up missing shots or turning the ball over).

That time interval, Big Baby's play put earned himself more playing time and Powe got to sit more.

Baby's current play is basically picking up right where he left off prior to his injury.

[BillfromBoston]

As much as I love Baby, I have got to go with the Powe Show here.

Effective low-post scorers are much harder to come by than bigs who can shoot the midrange J. 

How many other teams have a guy coming off the bench with ability to take over the paint to the tune of 20 or 30 on any given night?  I'll never forget his Finals Game 2 explosion.  He single handedly won us that game with his energy off the bench.

IMHO, Leon is the toughest player in the league and embodies the Celtic tradition through his tenacity and work ethic.  I would like to see him stay in green for the duration of his career.  Unfortunetly, of the two Powe seems more likely to get the big pay day which = less likely to be back next year..

I think you are overstating your case a bit here.  While Powe has developed some nice post skills, you make it sound like he is an elite low-post scorer. 

Right now, he is one of the best "garbage-men" in the league, and he supplements that with some developing low post moves that he can use to take advantage of single coverage.  He is not yet good enough to deal consistently with double teams, and  does not have the repertoire of post moves to be able to consistently beat good post defenders, like elite post scorers can.

Right now, I would say Powe still has a ways to go to even be on the level of guys like Corliss Williamson as a low post scorer...although he is already a much better rebounder, and garbageman.

Powe was really taking out the garbage before he got hurt. I've always said all Powe needs is playing time and he can take out the garbage with the best of them.

Even you had to be impressed with what Powe did when he got a chance to start.

Like I said, he is one of the best garbage-men in the league.

OK, let me put it this way, Leon Powe is basically a shorter, slightly less athletic version of Dwight Howard on offense.  No one would mistake him for Tim Duncan, or even Al Jefferson with his low post moves and touch, but he is effective when facing single coverage.  But when he grabs a rebound, or is given a pass within about 6 feet facing the hoop, he is very tough to stop from scoring.

I'd like to add that Powe's low post efficiency rating is in the 80th percentile for effectiveness amongst all NBA players.

Its valid to say the team is selective with when they feed him most frequently, thus taking advantage of the matchups that favor him, but his overall post game is in the upper 5th in the league, so he's outstanding at it.

The more he diversifies his arsenal the more consistently effective he'll be attacking matchups - he has already gone from doing a pure turn-middle rip-through move to mixing up what shoulder he goes to and whether or not he uses the hook or the blow-by. The next step is to incorporate that fall-away in the lane and the turn-around on the base-line, two shots he used effectively in the pre-season, but hasn't gone to much in the regular season.

Perkins has honed both those moves to good effect, its only a matter of time before Leon does as well - that will allow him to score in the post consistently against tight defense from long-armed defenders.

I expect the jump shot will be worked in over the next 2 years once he's fleshed out his post game fully. He uses his J very nicely in practice and works on it relentlessly during shoot-around sessions with Cliff Ray - by the time he's 28 I expect a complete offensive package and a nice, solid 5 year run of prime offensive dominance.

[BillfromBoston]

Bill,

You must have been a coach or a scout or both in a previous life!   


How would you know so much about Powe, especially when he was in college, when you live in Boston?


Always enjoy your posts, especially those about Powe.

Simple, I lived in the Bay Area for 10 years - 97 to 2007...

[BillfromBoston]

I think you over-estimate how much time the last guy on the depth chart gets when it comes to reps in practice of face time with the coaches...but it is definitely beneficial to be around the highest level talent - so that is a plus.

But never, ever underestimate the impact of being able to have a fully expanded and diverse role in which to apply your game - Glen Davis had an extra year of being "the man" in the NCAA, whic allowed him to explore his game in almost any way he saw fit.

There are advantages to both scenarios, which is why I said I put Davis and Powe at about the same point in terms of development.

I think "development" is a very tough word to use, since it's so general.  But just to throw a definition on it, lets say "development" means coming closer to reaching your maximum potential.

By that definition, I would actually say Davis is ahead of Powe.  Davis came into the league, much further along in the mental parts of the game, and fundamentals than Powe did.  Powe came in very raw (despite the numbers he put up in college), and has come a long way since coming into the league, but still has a long way to go to reach his potential. 

Part of this is the fact that Davis, due to his average athleticism and size (Powe is an exceptional athlete, and has more length), simply had a lower cieling. 

I think both of them will continue to improve, but I just see Powe having much more room for growth, as he continues to improve on his fundamentals and understanding of the game, while Davis is to the point, where he is really just learning new tricks, and trying to perfect what he already does.

There is definitely something to be said about that - Powe has great body control, footwork, and coordination but he never had to use it much in college because he was so physically dominant.

This is the first year i've every seen him consistently utilize finesse moves - prevciously all he ever had to do was use his first step and his power to blow through defeneders - it even worked on the NBA level for 2 years.

I think Powe is the type of player, like Perkins, who will continue to refine and refine the finesse in their games throughout their careers. They both work extremely hard and both have very nice physical attributes in terms of their hands, length, strength, footwork , and coordination - we've seen how far Perk has come in 5 years and he is far from done growing - Powe is a better overall athlete and I believe his growth curve will be faster.