Brown vs White: On/Off and Assessing a Player's Value?

[slamtheking]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not. Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning. That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

This nonsense again?

This season more than any other has proven that to be true.

this season actually proved the opposite.  JB was the best player on the team this year that won over 50 games, had no Tatum until the end, a very substandard White and PP (until he went to the bench), no real frontcourt players (not ignoring Q's leap in the quality of his play) and truly no second banana to carry the team when JB was on the bench. 

JB is a winning player no matter how much you say otherwise.  This season was proof of that, not proof of your opinion.

the team's failure in the postseason goes more towards Joe's insistence on bombing from 3 even when the team is building a brick wall and the fact that we went to a shortened rotation which went away from what worked this season.   JB's not at fault for that.

Jaylen has to take a portion of the blame for the postseason because he didn't play as well as he did in the regular season. If Jaylen played well and the team lost - fair enough, I'd put it on Mazzula. But he he didn't.

Jaylen's scoring dropped from 28.7ppg to 25.7ppg. His FG% dropped from 47.7% to 45.5%. His assists dropped from 5.1apg to 3.3apg. His turnovers stayed the same at 3.6 despite the drop in scoring and assists. He went from a 1.42:1.00 AST:TOV ratio to a 0.92:1.00 AST:TOV ratio. His TS% went from 57.3% to 55.1%.

Jaylen did not hold up his end of things. He deserves a significant amount of blame for the team's postseason disappointment.

I'm not saying he's blameless.  every player's to blame for their shortcomings but to say he doesn't contribute to winning is a baseless statement.  to put it another way, based on your comments, if he's not having a great game, the team cannot win.

[Celtics4ever]

Did Butler play with Jayson Tatum or someone better than Tatum?  Put it this way, if Butler and Brown swapped teams, what do you think their careers look like?

Butler made the finals twice and I would have to say the next best player was Bam on those teams.   I don't think Bam is as good at Tatum overall.   My point was Brown has never been the primary option except for four games in the playoff and this season.  Butler was the primary option on his teams both times.  Primary options get the ball more, more shots and the offense is tailored to them.  They have a green light to shoot anywhere.

Jimmy Butler III has averaged 21.1 points, 6.2 rebounds and 4.7 assists in 130 games in the playoffs in his career.
Jaylen Brown has averaged 19.6 points, 5.7 rebounds and 2.6 assists in 142 games in the playoffs in his career as the secondary option on the team.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jimmy-butler-career-playoff-stats
https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jaylen-brown-career-playoff-stats

I think we all can agree Butler is more clutch of the two.

Yeah, Brown's been great for the Celtics, but are we really going to pretend that the 2024 team wouldn't have won a Title with Butler instead of Brown? Butler's taken his team to the Finals as the lead guy on two occasions (both times over the Celtics). When Brown has played without Tatum in big moments, he's basically fallen flat on his face, with the exception of game 5 vs the Knicks last year

Is this really true that he has fallen flat.   I decided to look up this on statmuse.

Jaylen Brown has averaged 28.8 points, 8.3 rebounds and 6.8 assists in 4 games without Jayson Tatum in the playoffs in his career.

https://www.statmuse.com/nba/ask/jaylen-brown-career-playoff-stats-without-tatum

Did we advance no, we did not.   But he put up good numbers but the efficiency was off as it often is when a player is forced into a new role.

I think Brown carried a heavy load this year, and as some have posted stats clearly show it, it affected him.   But Jaylen  and with Joe and the rest of the team, they made us very competitive for most of year.  I like Jaylen when he drove and created rim pressure more, than the jump shooter, but he has had some knee issues.  His game has become more threes and mid ranges with an occasional dunk or drive.

I am of the opinion his trade value will never be higher.

[Who]

There is a discussion on J-Dub in another thread.

I believe J-Dub is another guy like Jaylen who doesn't have great on/off or adjusted plus minus numbers. So I thought J-Dub might make for an interesting example of a star player who has dodgy on/off and plus/minus numbers

----------------------

J-Dub's on/off for his 4 years

2025-26 = +2.1
2024-25 = -7.1
2023-24 = +1.6
2022-23 = -3.9

All over the place. So 2 solid seasons, one bad season, one very bad season. According to on/off.

https://databallr.com/stats/player/jalen-williams/1631114

Jaylen's on/off for his career

2025-26 = -5.5
2024-25 = -0.2
2023-24 = -7.8
2022-23 = -3.8
2021-22 = +5.4
2020-21 = +0.6
2019-20 = -0.2
2018-19 = -3.7
2017-18 = +9.1
2016-17 = -8.6

Again, lots of volatility in Jaylen's on/off as well. Even if we just look at his past 5 years - Jaylen has 1 good year, 2 average player years, 2 bad to very bad years.

https://databallr.com/stats/player/jaylen-brown/1627759

---------------

In terms of BPM

J-Dub has had scores of 2.3, 4.0, and 2.1 his last 3 years.

Jaylen from 2020-21 onwards has had scores of 2.5, 2.1, 1.3, 0.7, 0.0, and 3.3 this year (career high). His average for that 6yr period is 1.7 BPM.

In terms of VORP

J-Dub with 2.4, 3.4 and 1.0 this season but that is due to his lack of minutes (33 games, 28mpg). His lack of minutes hurts his VORP.

Jaylen from 2020-21 onwards has marks of 2.3, 2.2, 2.0, 1.6, 1.1, 3.3 (career high). His average is 2.6 VORP.

Quite a few similar numbers there in terms of BPM and VORP.

-----------

J-Dub's dodgy on/off and advanced stats marks likely come down to his so-so TS%. He was 56% this year in an injury season (97+), 57% last year in his career year (99 TS+), 62.1% the year before (107 TS+). Overall, 58.9% over the last 3 years.

Also a similar problem area for Jaylen Brown. Jaylen was 99 TS+ this year, 96 TS+ last year, but a steady 100-102 TS+ the previous 4 years. An average of 100 TS+ over his last 6 years.