Brown vs White: On/Off and Assessing a Player's Value?

[Celtics4ever]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

[Moranis]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not.  Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning.  That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success. 

[Vermont Green]

Jaylen Brown holds a career winning record of 523-293, which includes a 440?234 regular-season record and an 83-59 playoff record. Combined, this gives the Boston Celtics star an overall career winning percentage of approximately 64.1%

Jimmy Butler holds a career regular-season record of 546-361 (0.602 winning percentage), and a postseason record of 63-67 (0.485 winning percentage).

I think Jimmy Butler has been a more impactful player overall than Jaylen Brown, but it is a pretty good comp.  Both have one 2nd team all NBA and multiple 3rd team.  And Jaylen Brown has won more than Butler, regular season and playoffs.  Winning or not rarely comes down to one player, but it is a fact that Brown's teams have won more than Butler's teams.

[Donoghus]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not. Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning. That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

This nonsense again?

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not.  Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning.  That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

That's way too broad of a statement. Brown doesn't play winning basketball? He's won a championship and earned a finals MVP. He's in an elite group of winning players already.

I think Butler in his prime probably had a greater overall impact on his team than Brown did this last year, but claiming that Brown doesn't play winning basketball is not only untrue, it undercuts your points here.

An over-reliance on advanced stats is a market inequality right now in the NBA. Atkinson's quote before game 4 about how they should be up 2-1 in the series according to the stats shows this tone deafness in the advanced stats community. I think your insistence that the Cavs would tie the series in their two games at home after the eye test showed multiple problems with that theory like: 1) Harden collapses in big games, 2) Mobley clearly struggles with physicality, 3) Mitchell did not look like himself 4) the Knicks stole the Cavs soul in game 1.

I think advanced stats are helpful, especially with players like Butler who has good-not-great counting stats, because they reveal a true superstar career impact. They show a path forward. They help you focus on the winning processes, but the game is played on the court.

[Moranis]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not. Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning. That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

This nonsense again?

This season more than any other has proven that to be true. 

[Moranis]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not.  Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning.  That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

That's way too broad of a statement. Brown doesn't play winning basketball? He's won a championship and earned a finals MVP. He's in an elite group of winning players already.

I think Butler in his prime probably had a greater overall impact on his team than Brown did this last year, but claiming that Brown doesn't play winning basketball is not only untrue, it undercuts your points here.

An over-reliance on advanced stats is a market inequality right now in the NBA. Atkinson's quote before game 4 about how they should be up 2-1 in the series according to the stats shows this tone deafness in the advanced stats community. I think your insistence that the Cavs would tie the series in their two games at home after the eye test showed multiple problems with that theory like: 1) Harden collapses in big games, 2) Mobley clearly struggles with physicality, 3) Mitchell did not look like himself 4) the Knicks stole the Cavs soul in game 1.

I think advanced stats are helpful, especially with players like Butler who has good-not-great counting stats, because they reveal a true superstar career impact. They show a path forward. They help you focus on the winning processes, but the game is played on the court.

it is broad, and it is more than advanced stats. I watch the games.  Brown dominates the ball way too much and is a poor ball handler, poor decision maker, poor passer, mediocre shooter, mediocre rebounder, etc.  He doesn't have the skill set to do what he tries to do all the time.  He just never developed the right skills.  He is an inefficient volume scorer.  I think Who's comparisons are pretty spot on.  Very Xavier McDaniel/Dominique Wilkins feel.  Adrian Dantley is another guy from that era in that vein.  2 of those guys are HOFers.  It isn't a talent thing.   Some guys just don't have that special ingredient that let's them play winnjng basketball. Some guys do.  Like Alex Caruso, that guy is a straight up winner.  Not very talented at all, but everything he seems to do leads to winning.  Derek White also that type of player.  White is just a winner.  Now Brown isn't a losing player like Ben Simmons was.  I rhink it'd be really hard to win with Simmons in his prime.  Harden seems to be in thst category as well as guy thst can't get out of his own way.  Thst isnt Brown, Brown just doesn't elevate. He is what he is.  A very talented player that will do what he does, but isn't going to elevate a team. 

[DefenseWinsChamps]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not.  Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning.  That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

That's way too broad of a statement. Brown doesn't play winning basketball? He's won a championship and earned a finals MVP. He's in an elite group of winning players already.

I think Butler in his prime probably had a greater overall impact on his team than Brown did this last year, but claiming that Brown doesn't play winning basketball is not only untrue, it undercuts your points here.

An over-reliance on advanced stats is a market inequality right now in the NBA. Atkinson's quote before game 4 about how they should be up 2-1 in the series according to the stats shows this tone deafness in the advanced stats community. I think your insistence that the Cavs would tie the series in their two games at home after the eye test showed multiple problems with that theory like: 1) Harden collapses in big games, 2) Mobley clearly struggles with physicality, 3) Mitchell did not look like himself 4) the Knicks stole the Cavs soul in game 1.

I think advanced stats are helpful, especially with players like Butler who has good-not-great counting stats, because they reveal a true superstar career impact. They show a path forward. They help you focus on the winning processes, but the game is played on the court.

it is broad, and it is more than advanced stats. I watch the games.  Brown dominates the ball way too much and is a poor ball handler, poor decision maker, poor passer, mediocre shooter, mediocre rebounder, etc.  He doesn't have the skill set to do what he tries to do all the time.  He just never developed the right skills.  He is an inefficient volume scorer.  I think Who's comparisons are pretty spot on.  Very Xavier McDaniel/Dominique Wilkins feel.  Adrian Dantley is another guy from that era in that vein.  2 of those guys are HOFers.  It isn't a talent thing.   Some guys just don't have that special ingredient that let's them play winnjng basketball. Some guys do.  Like Alex Caruso, that guy is a straight up winner.  Not very talented at all, but everything he seems to do leads to winning.  Derek White also that type of player.  White is just a winner.  Now Brown isn't a losing player like Ben Simmons was.  I rhink it'd be really hard to win with Simmons in his prime.  Harden seems to be in thst category as well as guy thst can't get out of his own way.  Thst isnt Brown, Brown just doesn't elevate. He is what he is.  A very talented player that will do what he does, but isn't going to elevate a team.

Except he's one of the most winning players of this generation, has won a championship, and has a finals MVP.

I'm fine with the McDaniel/Dantley/Wilkins comps. I'm not fine with you saying he's not a winning basketball player.

I'm fine with you saying he doesn't contribute to winning as much as a guy like Jimmy Butler, but you undercut your own points by saying he's not a winning basketball player.

[Celtics4ever]

I posted Butler because they had similar stats.  I also think Wilkins was a way better athelte and feel Brown is better than McDaniel, this is especially true if you take into consideration that Brown is the second option for his team not the first.

I would also point out that Brown has more success when it matters than Jimmy Butler.   Has Butler won a ring, a finals MVP?

[Moranis]

I posted Butler because they had similar stats.  I also think Wilkins was a way better athelte and feel Brown is better than McDaniel, this is especially true if you take into consideration that Brown is the second option for his team not the first.

I would also point out that Brown has more success when it matters than Jimmy Butler.   Has Butler won a ring, a finals MVP?

Did Butler play with Jayson Tatum or someone better than Tatum?  Put it this way, if Butler and Brown swapped teams, what do you think their careers look like?

[jambr380]

I posted Butler because they had similar stats.  I also think Wilkins was a way better athelte and feel Brown is better than McDaniel, this is especially true if you take into consideration that Brown is the second option for his team not the first.

I would also point out that Brown has more success when it matters than Jimmy Butler.   Has Butler won a ring, a finals MVP?

Did Butler play with Jayson Tatum or someone better than Tatum?  Put it this way, if Butler and Brown swapped teams, what do you think their careers look like?

Yeah, Brown's been great for the Celtics, but are we really going to pretend that the 2024 team wouldn't have won a Title with Butler instead of Brown? Butler's taken his team to the Finals as the lead guy on two occasions (both times over the Celtics). When Brown has played without Tatum in big moments, he's basically fallen flat on his face, with the exception of game 5 vs the Knicks last year

[slamtheking]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not. Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning. That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

This nonsense again?

This season more than any other has proven that to be true.

this season actually proved the opposite.  JB was the best player on the team this year that won over 50 games, had no Tatum until the end, a very substandard White and PP (until he went to the bench), no real frontcourt players (not ignoring Q's leap in the quality of his play) and truly no second banana to carry the team when JB was on the bench. 

JB is a winning player no matter how much you say otherwise.  This season was proof of that, not proof of your opinion.

the team's failure in the postseason goes more towards Joe's insistence on bombing from 3 even when the team is building a brick wall and the fact that we went to a shortened rotation which went away from what worked this season.   JB's not at fault for that.

[Moranis]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not. Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning. That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

This nonsense again?

This season more than any other has proven that to be true.

this season actually proved the opposite.  JB was the best player on the team this year that won over 50 games, had no Tatum until the end, a very substandard White and PP (until he went to the bench), no real frontcourt players (not ignoring Q's leap in the quality of his play) and truly no second banana to carry the team when JB was on the bench. 

JB is a winning player no matter how much you say otherwise.  This season was proof of that, not proof of your opinion.

the team's failure in the postseason goes more towards Joe's insistence on bombing from 3 even when the team is building a brick wall and the fact that we went to a shortened rotation which went away from what worked this season.   JB's not at fault for that.

Boston was better this year with Brown on the bench than when he was in the game (-4.6 on/off differential per 100).  They were 9-2 (82%) in the 11 games he didn't play at all and 47-24 (66%) with him.  The year before Brown missed 19 games, Boston was 15-4 (79%) in those games and 46-17 (73%) with him.  The title season 52-18 with him, 12-0 without him.  There are years and years of evidence at this point.  Boston simply wins at a higher rate without Brown, than they do with him.  And that is without replacing him at all. 

[Who]

Nique was a way more dominant scorer than Jaylen.  Brown is better than McDaniel.

I think Brown is close to Jimmy Butler.  Look at their stats.

                 Brown                       Butler
Position   Guard / Forward   Guard / Forward
Scoring      ~23-26 PPG            ~21-23 PPG
Rebounding   ~5.5 RPG           ~5.5 RPG
Shooting      ~49% FG          ~49% FG

Jimmy could sometimes take over games though more so than Brown.

However, Butler's teams were always much worse when he wasn't in the game.  He has generally had an elite or borderline elite on/off differential.  He improves every team he is on in large part because of the stats you don't show i.e. 4.4 apg to just 1.6 tpg. A 2.75 assist to turnover ratio is fantastic as is his very low turnover rate.  Butler generates as many steals i.e. 1.6 as he commits turnovers.  He also doesnt commit fouls at just 1.4 fouls per game.  Butler plays winning basketball on both ends of the floor. He always has.  Brown does not. Brown's impact to winning is basically non-existent because he doesn't play winning basketball. He is a very good player, his skill set just isn't conducive to winning. That doesn't mean you can't win with him as Boston has obviously done that, but plenty of teams have won with non-winning players on their roster even in starting roles.  We saw this year what a Jaylen Brown led team looks like i.e. lots of stats and regular season wins, but limited post season success.

This nonsense again?

This season more than any other has proven that to be true.

this season actually proved the opposite.  JB was the best player on the team this year that won over 50 games, had no Tatum until the end, a very substandard White and PP (until he went to the bench), no real frontcourt players (not ignoring Q's leap in the quality of his play) and truly no second banana to carry the team when JB was on the bench. 

JB is a winning player no matter how much you say otherwise.  This season was proof of that, not proof of your opinion.

the team's failure in the postseason goes more towards Joe's insistence on bombing from 3 even when the team is building a brick wall and the fact that we went to a shortened rotation which went away from what worked this season.   JB's not at fault for that.

Jaylen has to take a portion of the blame for the postseason because he didn't play as well as he did in the regular season. If Jaylen played well and the team lost - fair enough, I'd put it on Mazzula. But he he didn't.

Jaylen's scoring dropped from 28.7ppg to 25.7ppg. His FG% dropped from 47.7% to 45.5%. His assists dropped from 5.1apg to 3.3apg. His turnovers stayed the same at 3.6 despite the drop in scoring and assists. He went from a 1.42:1.00 AST:TOV ratio to a 0.92:1.00 AST:TOV ratio. His TS% went from 57.3% to 55.1%.

Jaylen did not hold up his end of things. He deserves a significant amount of blame for the team's postseason disappointment.

[Who]

On the subject of Jaylen being the best player on a 50+ win (56 win) team last season and that being proof of how much he impacts winning ...

I agree and disagree. I agree to a point but I also feel Jaylen is getting too much credit for the team's winning season.

(1) This team has an excellent winning structure around him. Without that structure, I don't think Jaylen would have managed similar success. Likewise, I believe other stars who do not have that structure but if were placed here in BOS could also have more success here than they do elsewhere.

(2) I think the team's other players do not get enough credit for their contributions to the season. Too much focus on Jaylen. Not enough on other players.

-------------------------

On Jaylen being a winning player, I agree he is a winning player but I also disagree with the notion that he has a huge impact on winning. I see him more at a regular All-Star level of influence on winning rather than someone who is a top 10 player in the league.

Jerry West used to say that an MVP was twice as valuable as an All-NBA player and an All-NBA player is twice as valuable as an All-Star. I have Jaylen at All-Star level.