Proposed Jaylen Brown Trade Ideas

[Atzar]

This crap is why I dislike advanced statistics as they're discussed in basketball.

Advanced statistics should break basketball players down into their many complexities.  How does this player perform in this position, this role, this set, this situation.  I suspect that's what real analysts, employed in front offices, are doing.

The stat up above about Jaylen hurting his teammate's scoring comes from Jeremias Engelmann. He worked with the Suns and with the Mavs. He works at ESPN now. He created their real plus/minus stat for them.

The second graph comes from a guy I haven't heard of before. His twitter page says he is a draft analyst. But no idea for who or what his background is.

Cool, but for all his accreditation he just intentionally dropped a misleading stat that makes a player look bad on its surface but isn't nearly as incriminating if given a bit of thought.

Jaylen's teammates score less when he's on the court.  Cool.  He's a massive-usage player, that's really all that is saying.  Most high-usage scorers are in that region of the chart, including many shiny names for whom we don't host this public trial-by-misrepresented-analytics.  Naturally teammates of high-usage players are going to score more when the high-usage guy is resting and they're having to bake their own bread for a while. 

[Who]

So that was a tweet that is linked to an article that is behind a substack paywall. There is a full article talking about various advanced stats that do not like Jaylen Brown. The substack account is Royce Webb who worked at ESPN in the past.

https://www.roycewebb.com/p/the-analytics-case-against-jaylen

Like I said, it is behind a paywall so I can't see what else is in the article. That tweet is part of it though.

[Who]

Jeremias Engelmann
@JerryEngelmann

No player in the NBA lowers the points that his teammates score, while on the court with him, more than Jaylen Brown. He lops off 4 points, per 100, from each of the 4 teammates that share the court with him

I do think this is a bad graph for Jaylen.

The graph clearly shows the correlation between high scoring and your teammates scoring going down but Jaylen is at the bottom of it. There are 8 other players in that vertical line above Jaylen who score at a similar rate as him (40-44pts per 100poss). None of them impede their teammates as much as Jaylen does. The best one only a -1pts per 100poss compared to Jaylen who is 4 times worse at -4pts per 100poss.

The next horizontal tier over has 1 player equal to Jaylen in the -4pts per 100poss but scores 5pts extra per 100poss. If Celtics2021 is correct and that is Luka, the 2nd tweet I linked to shows Luka has a lower turnover rate (while dishing more assists to teammates) than Jaylen.

David Lee: stars tend to suppress their teammates' PPG, but they pair that scoring usage with hyper-efficiency (Giannis/prime Joel), influence high quality shots (Wemby), and/or suppress TOs (Luka). in contrast, a jump in Jaylen Brown's scoring output leads to diminishing returns for BOS👇

Then there are 2 others in that 45+pts per 100poss that have better numbers than Jaylen. That impede their teammates scoring less despite them scoring more than Jaylen does. That is bad too.

So out of the 11 players in that 40-45pts & 45+pts per 100poss, Jaylen is the worst of them.

[Who]

Shams on Jaylen Brown

"If the price lowers at some point this offseason to 2 firsts (round picks) or maybe 2 firsts and then some, then you might see something.

My indication right now is they would not want to go that route"

[Phantom255x]

Gonna be honest, if they do end up pulling the trigger and trade Jaylen for a mere role players and limited picks, I'm gonna start to really be critical of Brad Stevens. He's done a lot of good, but this offseason has the potential to look pretty poor on his end. Even if they want to offload Jaylen for reasons (contract, streaming, media, etc.), you can't waste an asset like that in this manner.

If they really can't back good value for Jaylen, not even "80 cents on the dollar", then just keep him. Have those conversations and make amends.

It's also been a bit of a weird offseason where all of a sudden, every rumor is leaked and it's like the Celtics plans are just out in the open, which is different from how the C's and Stevens typically operate. Not just the Giannis stuff but even the Jaylen rumors

[No Nickname]

Jeremias Engelmann: Jaylen Brown has one of the best shooting touches in the NBA (as measured by actual points vs. expected points, based on shot location and type) Problem is, his shot selection is among the worst, trailing only DeMar DeRozan

Leonard?s future in Los Angeles is now growing murkier, the Clippers have reportedly emerged as a serious team to watch for Boston Celtics star Jaylen Brown. According to ESPN?s Vincent Goodwill, one league executive said the Clippers "want Brown bad," adding another major name to what has already become one of the NBA?s most active rumor cycles. -New York Post

Multiple executives still believe Portland could be involved in trade discussions for the Celtics' Jaylen Brown, and that could be the next big move. Has Morant hit rock bottom? One high-level exec told ESPN over the weekend that he believes Morant?s needs extend beyond basketball. He actually believes, however, that Morant can make a comeback to his old form because of how the guard competes when he?s healthy. -ESPN

[celticinorlando]

Shams on Jaylen Brown

"If the price lowers at some point this offseason to 2 firsts (round picks) or maybe 2 firsts and then some, then you might see something.

My indication right now is they would not want to go that route"

He is not getting moved IMO. And we cannot afford to have this linger until camp. Take your losses and just say we are keeping him. This has become a circus and not how Brad likes to opperate or should opperate.

[Who]

The Chief chimes in

In explaining his position on the matter, [Robert] Parish called out the Celtics, and specifically team president of basketball operations Brad Stevens, for what he deems a "serious miscalculation" by the organization following their pursuit of Giannis Antetokounmpo.

"First of all, you don't get rid of a talent like Jaylen Brown unless he asked to be moved, not to mention the backcourt with he and (Jayson) Tatum is a proven formula. So why would you wanna make that move", Parish said. "I find it disturbing, and it's uncomfortable, and not to mention I don't understand - never have, never will - why ownership and management want respect and loyalty from players, but they only give you loyalty and respect when it's in their best interest."

[Who]

Deron Williams on Jaylen

Deron Williams on Jaylen Brown: "Everything that he's doing right now is very calculated. I guarantee you it's very calculated. I think he wants out."

I forget who the other player was that said the same thing. They thought Jaylen was trying to push his way out of BOS too. That his comments on twitch were intentionally causing friction with the organization. Trying to muddy waters without going so far as demanding a trade because Jaylen did not want fan backlash from a trade demand.

[celticinorlando]

Brown is invested in the Boston community and does not want to be labeled the bad guy there. I have no doubt at that May candid meeting he asked to be moved. Problem is Brad has no moves to make with him now.

So Brad goes back to Brown and says I tried...there was no deal out there. JB then has to suck it up and run it back. End of drama. Move forward.

[Kernewek]

This crap is why I dislike advanced statistics as they're discussed in basketball.

Advanced statistics should break basketball players down into their many complexities.  How does this player perform in this position, this role, this set, this situation.  I suspect that's what real analysts, employed in front offices, are doing.

The stat up above about Jaylen hurting his teammate's scoring comes from Jeremias Engelmann. He worked with the Suns and with the Mavs. He works at ESPN now. He created their real plus/minus stat for them.

The second graph comes from a guy I haven't heard of before. His twitter page says he is a draft analyst. But no idea for who or what his background is.

Cool, but for all his accreditation he just intentionally dropped a misleading stat that makes a player look bad on its surface but isn't nearly as incriminating if given a bit of thought.

Jaylen's teammates score less when he's on the court.  Cool.  He's a massive-usage player, that's really all that is saying.  Most high-usage scorers are in that region of the chart, including many shiny names for whom we don't host this public trial-by-misrepresented-analytics.  Naturally teammates of high-usage players are going to score more when the high-usage guy is resting and they're having to bake their own bread for a while.

Like you say, though, the real analysts are doing this thought already, right?  And I'd question the presumption that there are as many high-usage guys who have such a stark relationship with their teammates as you say, just on principle, but I don't have time to dive in too deeply.

[Vermont Green]

I will admit, I do not understand the table.  The point cloud graph above is pretty clear, yes, players that score a lot take away from how other players score.  Brown generally does not create for others as well as some other stars, such as Tatum.  That is fair.  It doesn't mean he is not a very good player, just means he is not in that elite class of players.

As to the table, what exactly is it saying about Brown?  Isn't it saying that he is second best to these other stars at teammate shot quality impact?  And best of the group at 10 year teammate help?

[Who]

I will admit, I do not understand the table.  The point cloud graph above is pretty clear, yes, players that score a lot take away from how other players score.  Brown generally does not create for others as well as some other stars, such as Tatum.  That is fair.  It doesn't mean he is not a very good player, just means he is not in that elite class of players.

As to the table, what exactly is it saying about Brown?  Isn't it saying that he is second best to these other stars at teammate shot quality impact?  And best of the group at 10 year teammate help?

Yeah, I have been trying to figure out some of those stats as well. They are ones I haven't come across before.

3yr OTOV RAPM -- I believe this one is how many turnovers the team has while you are on the floor adjusted for your teammates.

dEPM -- I think this is defensive estimated plus minus.

rStop% -- Is this how many stops you get on defense? The r for relative to opponent quality? I am not sure but that is what I am guessing. I have seen stop% stats before and they were a defensive stat. Never seen rstop%.

As to the table, what exactly is it saying about Brown?  Isn't it saying that he is second best to these other stars at teammate shot quality impact?  And best of the group at 10 year teammate help?

The 1st one yes. I think so. Luka appears to be the only standout in the group in terms of improving teammate shot quality. Jaylen is 2nd best with Wemby & Embiid trailing him. Then Giannis way back with a negative score. I wonder if this stat argues a point I have been making about Giannis for 8-10 years that he is difficult for his teammates to play with.

The second one is playtype and 3rd one is zTS%. I imagine they are linked to one another. zTS% breaks down how many shots do you create for yourself, how many are space up opportunities, how many transition hoops, how many finishes at the rim. How many difficult shots vs easier shots are you taking in a game. Then the zTS% adjusts your TS% to account for you taking more difficult shots. I imagine this 2nd stat is doing a similar thing to that. It is rating how many easy shot attempts vs more difficult shot attempts you are taking to get your points. Also why the big guys have worse numbers because they get a lot of dunks off of cuts / rim rolling / offensive rebounds which are easier percentage shot attempts.

Jaylen gets a boost in zTS% because he creates a lot of his own offense. I expect he also does very well in transition scoring. But badly in spacing scoring. So he gets a boost in zTS% but not as large of a boost as other perimeter guys who are knocking down more contested 3 pointers off the dribble. Those guys (like Trae Young or LaMelo) seem to get a larger boost in this stat. That is why Luka has such a large number.

The potential assists per true shot attempt looks interesting. I imagine true shot attempt is FGA + .44 FTA + maybe turnovers. Or maybe turnovers on scoring attempts. Some of these separate turnovers between scoring turnovers & passing turnovers. Most turnovers are passing turnovers. Giannis & Luka rate highly here. Jaylen in the middle. The bigs Embiid and Wemby rate lowly.

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Anyway, that is the best I can make of it thus far. Many of these stats I had not come across before.

I like that teammate help stat at the bottom. Although I am surprised that Embiid's number isn't higher because he has been on several title contender Philly teams for the last 5-6 years. I'd like to know more about that one.

Edit: I thought teammate help stat meant how much help the star player has had around him in his career. So how good his teammates were. Not how much he improved his teammates.

That Jaylen had far and away the most help of any of those star players. Which would make sense because we have great rosters in BOS since he has been here. He had Kyrie, Hayward, Horford. Guys like Smart, M Morris. Tatum. Then Brogdon, Timelord. Porzingis, Jrue, D White.

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After spending a bunch of time trying to figure out some of those stats I just realized I missed the header at the top of the graph -- "the 5 players who limit their teammates scoring the most".

Okay, so that is why they chose to compare those 5 guys. It seemed like an odd bunch to compare. Now that makes sense.

I am surprised Wemby is in that group. I wouldn't have expected him to impede his teammates much. Although I do hate how San Antonio use him. He could be a great facilitator who enables his teammates and puts his teammates in positions to succeed but they only seem concerned with using him as a scorer. I don't like it. Bad coaching.

[Ilikesports17]

I will admit, I do not understand the table.  The point cloud graph above is pretty clear, yes, players that score a lot take away from how other players score.  Brown generally does not create for others as well as some other stars, such as Tatum.  That is fair.  It doesn't mean he is not a very good player, just means he is not in that elite class of players.

As to the table, what exactly is it saying about Brown?  Isn't it saying that he is second best to these other stars at teammate shot quality impact?  And best of the group at 10 year teammate help?

The table is confusing. I had to look up half the numbers and even knowing what they mean the conclusion isnt obvious to me.

I've read some other stuff from that guy and his thesis is basically that if you are gonna be super high usage/low pace then you need to either

1) create amazing looks for teammates
2) score ridiculously efficiently
3) be a dominant defensive player
4) take care of the ball at an elite level

So my read on the table is that Wemby gets a pass because hes the best defender in the world. Giannis gets a pass because  he kinda does all of these things. Embiid comes off just as bad as Jaylen in this graph. Luka gets a pass because his teammates arent good and hes insanely efficient.

This all makes reasonable sense but JB's numbers dont look half bad to me. And its not like anyone was claiming hes better than 3/4 guys on this list so i dont really get the point. Sure this year he limited his teammates shot attempts. Who cares? We had 2 good scorers on the whole roster.

[jpotter33]

I think some others have mentioned it, but I?m surprised that Utah is not a suitor for JB. They have a frontcourt logjam with Kessler, JJJ, and Lauri that trading one of them for JB would help resolve and not necessarily interfere with the development of their younger guys who play smaller.

For us, I like the idea of a JJJ + other stuff for JB swap. I think he?d fit well in Joe?s system, and JT rebounds well enough that you could play him at C next to JT at PF.